Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr -- John McCain's Ralph Nader?

Will Bob Barr play the role of Nader to John McCain, or will his most likely base, Ron Paul supporters, pull from Obama?

Former Republican congressman Bob Barr has won the Libertarian party's presidential nomination. Barr, a staunch conservative who opposes the war could play the role of Ralph Nader on the right wing side of the aisle.

After a bruising, six ballot convention contest, Barr emerged the victor, giving Libertarians hope that this well known politician will expand their visibility.

But his election comes as a blow to Libertarian unity, as alternet writer Alexander Zaitchik reports,

Even many Libertarians who welcome Barr's candidacy as a boost for the party's profile (and, they hope, their chances of spoiling the candidacy of that statist pretender to Barry Goldwater's throne, John McCain) admit they are left uneasy by Barr's long "anti-Liberty" record in Congress.

This record includes voting for the Patriot Act, staunch support for the war on drugs (Barr is a former federal prosecutor) and authorship of the Defense of Marriage Act. He has since renounced many, if not all, of his old positions, but the turnaround has been too recent and too sudden for many Libertarians to fully swallow his conversion story. In 2002, the Libertarian Party called Barr "the worst drug warrior in Congress."

An Air America Radio host has observed that Libertarians are "right wingers who smoke dope and get laid."

The question is, will Barr's candidacy siphon off more votes from McCain or the Democratic candidate.

Barr says he will run in 48 states. He's already on the ballot in 28 states.

Andrew Malcolm, writing in the LA Times' Top of the Ticket blog, observes,

"The Libertarians have been good for only around 3% of the vote in recent elections. However, 3% in a close election between the Republican and Democratic tickets could make the difference.

Much as Ralph Nader drew enough votes from Al Gore in 2000 to help George W. Bush win the White House, the little-known Barr could draw enough votes of dissatisfied conservatives to hurt Sen. John McCain's chances as the GOP nominee."

The Washington Post's Micah L. Sifry observes

Sen. John McCain is champing at the bit to run against Sen. Barack Obama in the fall. But while the presumptive GOP nominee focuses on his likely Democratic rival, he should also worry about his own right flank. Bob Barr entered the presidential race last week as a Libertarian, in time for that party's nominating convention (which starts Thursday), and while the former Republican congressman from Georgia isn't going to become president, his run is no joke. Barr might well inherit the sizable support garnered by Rep. Ron Paul during his own run for the Republican nomination -- and leave McCain sputtering the sorts of epithets usually uttered by Democrats talking about Ralph Nader.

Right wing Weekly Standard editor Michael Goldfarb, citing Sifry, fantasizes that Barr will do no harm, speculating, in response to Sifry,

They aren't going to vote McCain no matter what, but they might have voted Obama to punish their party and force a withdrawal from Iraq. If Andrew Sullivan is any indicator, supporting Ron Paul and Barack Obama are not mutually exclusive. In the absence of a third party run by Paul, or a Libertarian bid by Barr, these voters would have ended up in the Obama column. Instead we may have four anti-war candidates on the ballot -- Obama, Nader, Paul, and Barr. And whatever protest vote exists within the Republican party is minuscule compared to the Democratic protest vote against Obama (see West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.).

Barr will give anti-war voters who bitterly cling to guns and religion another option in November. If he has any impact at all, and he may not given the nature of his early attacks, he seems likely to siphon votes from Obama, not McCain.

But Goldfarb seems to ignore what Sifry said next about Ron Paul,

"...If Barr manages to capture the attention of Paul's base, it could spell real danger for McCain. ...While everyone has fixated on whether Ralph Nader cost Al Gore Florida, TV commentator Patrick Buchanan, running on the Reform Party banner, got enough votes in Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin to tip them out of George W. Bush's hands. Ron Paul may not be on the ballot this November, but his sizable grassroots movement will probably still be looking for a champion. Bob Barr won't be president, but he could still gore McCain.

Jonathan Martin of The Politico reports that in his conversation with Ron Paul last month, Paul showed little enthusiasm for Barr.

Will Republicans, already unenthusiastic about McCain, jump ship for red-meat conservative Barr? Alternet's Zaitchik reports,

Another sign that Barr is already opening the Libertarian Party's gates to an influx of disaffected conservative Republicans was the convention presence of legendary Republican fund-raiser Richard Viguerie, whose involvement in the Libertarian Party closely mirrors that of Barr's.

"The GOP has abandoned conservatives, who are off the reservation," Viguerie said in a keynote speech Saturday. "Technology is the key to making the Libertarian Party the new force in American politics. Become a blogger in the battle for America's soul. We don't need Wall Street Republicans when we have the tools of the new age."

A strong sign that Barr "gets" the new "bottom-up" campaign and fundraising paradigm -- he has hired Ron Paul's webmaster.

After I came out supporting Ron Paul as my favorite Republican candidate, tens of thousands of Ron Paul supporters started coming to my site on a daily basis. Most of them were anti-war, anti-Bush conservatives. At first, I thought they'd be potential Obama supporters. After interacting with enough of them, my read of them changed. They were mostly the people Thom Hartmann describes -- socially more liberal, but extremely anti-government, anti-tax -- and very unlikely to vote Democratic, except for the disaffected former Democrats, who, failing to have Ron Paul to vote for, will probably vote for independent Ralph Nader or Green Party Candidate Cynthia McKinney.

If Barr can meet the hopes of Libertarians and surpass the traditional turnout they have seen, Barr could be one of the factors that turns John McCain's campaign into the rout it has the potential to become... if the Dems don't implode.

Crossposted in OpEdNews.com

Comments

[ProudLiberalDan]

Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney all bring something different to the table.

The two corporate-funded party system fails this country and fails the spirit of democracy itself.

While I am voting for Obama, our electoral system needs an overhaul.

Instead of voting for "electors" in the electoral college, we need direct popular vote elections, with a form of runoff (either ranked-choice a la Ireland and Australia or two-round a la France and Brazil).

In the meantime, there should be at least one debate including every candidate on enough state ballots to total 270 electoral votes.

We might even hear different policy solutions and something may be discussed other than flag lapel pins.

My prefered choice is the ranked-choice system that has given Australia the best electoral system in the world.

[ImmanuelGoldstein]

I hate to make it seem like I'm spamming but I reiterate:

The Libertarians have never broken 1% of the vote total in any presidential election, usually doing worse.

Why the hell is anyone pretending they are going to have any effect now when they haven't for over 30 years?

Can anybody give me reasons, I mean actual reasons to think this is anything more than a teapot tempest?

[guyshomenet]

As a delegate at Denver, I saw a friendly divide between ideological purist and pragmatics who know that Barr -- backed by Russ Verney's strategy skills and Richard Viguerie's fundraising prowess -- will get the Libs into the debates. That's where the Obama Express will derail.

The Barr/Root campaign is not as dangerous to the Republicans as it is to the Democrats. The reason is "blue" Democrats -- Blue Dogs and the Blue Collars. Current polling shows 12% of Democrats cannot stomach Obama, and these are primarily the Blues. They will not switch to McCain, but in what will be a contentious election, they won't sit it out either. During the debates, they will be open to the small-government Lib pitch. The 8% of Republicans who can't stomach McCain may do the same. A 4% spread is enough to influence this election.

Few Republicans can take the pure-freedom Libertarian policies (borders, abortions, drugs, gays, etc) and will not switch. However, these are hot-button issues for Democrats, and ones on which Obama will equivocate. Singe-issue Democrats will defect when single-issue Republicans won't. Pair this draining of votes with the Nader factor, and it all starts piling up against Obama.

And it gets worse.

For all his charisma, Obama breaks when discussing policy details in a confrontational mode. He will wither during the debates when pitted against well-honed warriors like Barr, McCain and Nader.

Enjoy your moment my Democrat friends ... it will be short lived.

[BLinCincinnati]

"A 4% spread is enough to influence this election."

The problem with your argument is you are assuming that all other things are equal. Namely that there are equal number of Republicans and Democrats.

And Barr isn't a Libertarian. Sorry, I don't care what banner he's under. His record is that of a super conservative right wing Republican.

But feel free to keep telling us how we can't win, I've been hearing it for months now from Clinton fanatics. We see how right they were.

[ProudLiberalDan]

Enjoy your wishful thinking until McCain, the Republican Party and the conservative movement go down to their much deserved landslide defeat in November.

[WorkingClass]

Barr gives humiliated Republicans an option besides staying home. I don't see how that hurts McCain. There may be a tiny core of Libertarians who will vote for Barr. Ron Paul's minions that have come out of the woodwork in this election cycle are not going to vote for Barr or McCain. If Paul is not on the ballot the Paul people will vote for Obama. I voted for Perot once and Nader twice. I will be voting for Obama unless he puts Clinton on the ticket, in which case I will be voting for Nader. If Paul had been the Republican nominee he would have had my vote.

Us lunatic fringe voters have a lot in common whether on the left - Nader - or the right - Ron Paul. We all want an end to imperial adventures. We want to live within our means and within our borders. And we want to take our government back from the robber barons who own it today. No wonder people think we're crazy.

If Clinton were the nominee, Nader and McKinney would do well. Us nut jobs view Hillary as Leiberman in a pant suit. We wont vote for her. But we are coming around for Obama. We are beginning to see that he is a brilliant politician and tactician. He appears to be genuinely interested in governing and while we love our ideologies we can support a pragmatist in this, our hour of need. Obama will win it big. Barr

[Pyrum]

The vast majority of Ron Paul supporters will not even consider voting for Obama. Granted, they won't vote for McCain or Barr either. If they vote third party, the most likely choice is Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party.

[Rob Kall - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm hoping Barr will hurt McCain more. When he was in congress, I thought of him as one of the worst right wingers, because of his background with spy agencies-- like papa Bush. But since leaving congress, he HAS, on a number of occasions, spoken up for the constitution and against the war. So Barr may just pull from independents and Paul supporters who might otherwise have supported Obama.

Long-term, I think Barr will move the LIbertarian party further to the right. And my experience in Zogby polls I've commissioned through OpEdNews.com is that libertarians are even more conservative on MANY issues than Republicans.

[noneIn2008]

Good article. I was surprised to see Huff cover Barr, I thought it was forbidden. The Libertarians are very misunderstood because of coverage by the MSM. Odd the Dems and Reps claim the Libertarians represent the worst of the other party. Instead, the Libertarians represent the BEST of each party - at least what was the historic best - freedom and liberty. The Republican party no longer has a best.

I would clarify one point on your reporting of the Patriot Act. Barr opposed, but negotiated a sunset provision in order to sign. While all our Dems and Reps were watching polls and voting for, Barr was putting in a kill key.

Also, you do not mention that he was an attorney for the ACLU.

Barr will pull from both Obama and McCain. We can only hope more from McCain. Those interested in freedom and liberty. The best part is that maybe this will open some MSM coverage and allow the Libertarian positions to start to be discussed instead of suppressed and misrepresented.

[HollywoodBill]

Pro Life Libertarians? Both Ron Paul and Bob Barr are nothing but recycled Revival Tent Republicans posing as Libertarians. They both come from the snake handling brigades of the Southern Social Conservative branch of the GOP. They are attempting to repackage themselves as something that they are not. Anyone thinking that either one of these religious whackos is going to change the dichotomy of the races needs to wear their tin foil hats with the shiny side out. Neither Georgia nor Texas is even going to be close for the Dems.

[Pyrum]

I don't know about Bob Barr, but Ron Paul is not a religious wacko.

[wm1066]

I watched some of that on C-Span and the Libertarians were in short supply and the ones that were there weren't that excited about Barr.

[rgersmrk]

Barr is going to be more of a problem for the RNC and McCain than they are willing to admit. With McCain's recent denouncements of popular right wing preachers he will undoubtedly lose a good chunk of that vote. There also has been a trend in primary's since he sewed up the nomination where people are voting against him regardless. When you see 25% of the voters in the state vote against you you are looking at real problems.

When the DNC starts putting it's full jets in exposing McCain for the fraud that he is it won't take long for him to crumble. Barr is just going to be Ross Perot in 2008.