Zogby Polling: Women Deserting Hillary?

Zogby polls in the past week show steadily declining support for Hillary among women. Blacks, and under 70s. moving to Obama driving the change.

Zogby phone polls in Indiana and North Carolina suggest that women are deserting Hillary.

In the gender war, Obama seems to have made serious progress, holding the edge on males and pulling ahead, though statistically insignificantly, with females. Frankly, it's hard to believe that Hillary has lost the edge in the female vote. But checking the progression over the past few days seems to bear this out.

May 6 Zogby Poll	Gender
	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	42.8	41.5	43.8
Barack Obama	45.3	46.7	44.3
Someone else	4.8	6.4	3.5
NS	7.0	5.4	8.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

First, let's compare today's poll to the April 22 poll results for Pennsylvania: From April 22 to May 5 there's a huge change--- from a 13.5 lead for hillary to a .5 lead for Obama. That's a 14% drop. It's hard to buy, so let's check recent polls.

PA 4/22 Zogby Poll	Gender
	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	48.2	42.3	53.1
Barack Obama	42.1	45.0	39.6
Someone else	3.6	5.3	2.2
NS	6.1	7.4	5.1
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Just two days earlier, on May 4, Hillary holds a 4.6 advantage among women

May 4 Indiana	Gender			US Direction
	Total	Male	Female	Right	Wrong	NS
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	41.3	38.1	43.9	41.2	41.5	37.4
Barack Obama	42.8	47.0	39.3	33.2	44.9	26.0
Someone else	7.9	8.1	7.7	20.6	5.6	19.7
NS	8.0	6.8	9.1	5.0	8.0	16.9
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

And two days earlier, on May 2, Hillary had even stronger support from women-- a 7.6 advantage..

May 2 Indiana	Gender			US Direction
	Total	Male	Female	Right	Wrong	NS
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	41.7	37.1	45.4	40.1	41.5	47.5
Barack Obama	42.3	47.7	37.8	29.3	44.7	24.6
Someone else	7.4	8.7	6.2	20.9	5.8	9.2
NS	8.7	6.4	10.6	9.6	8.0	18.7
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are women abandoning Hillary? The series of polls seems to suggest a gradual decline.

The results for North Carolina support the Indiana findings, for gender AND for ideology.

	Gender			AgeGroup				Ideology
	Total	Male	Female	18-29				Prog	Lib	Mod	Cons	VCons	Libert
	%	%	%	%				%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	37.1	33.7	39.9	23.9				18.8	38.4	41.0	41.3	18.6	21.7
Barack Obama	51.0	56.0	46.9	62.2				77.8	51.8	48.0	41.1	55.8	78.3
Someone else	3.6	3.5	3.6	5.0				2.5	1.4	2.4	8.2	15.2
NS	8.3	6.9	9.6	8.9				.9	8.4	8.5	9.4	10.3
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0				100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

With such startling numbers, I contacted Zogby and they explained that for North Carolina, the strong black vote is skewing the female vote. For Indiana, the Zogby organization spokesman, explained, "The defection of women from Hillary appears to be among her base of older women in Indiana - particularly those age 55-64, where she has lost significant ground."

Next we look at ideology, and it's clear that Obama has much stronger support among progressives, less strong among liberals and Hillary is the strongest among conservatives. Why is that not a surprise?

May 6 Indiana	Ideology
	Total	Prog	Lib	Mod	Cons	VCons	Libert
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	42.9	30.7	42.6	39.4	53.7	30.8	30.5
Barack Obama	45.0	63.3	49.9	48.4	32.9	26.5	36.3
Someone else	5.0		3.2	3.0	6.7	42.7	6.8
NS	7.0	5.9	4.3	9.2	6.7		26.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Now let's look at the April 22 PA poll. Obama is not looking nearly as good here, losing the liberals and moderates. Maybe Hillary's attacks on Moveon.org and her glowing support from William Cristol, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity and Joe Scarborough are sinking in.

	Ideology
	Total	Prog	Lib	Mod	Cons	VCons	Libert
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	48.7	30.0	49.7	52.9	55.2	76.0	32.4
Barack Obama	42.2	58.5	43.3	38.1	34.5		67.6
Someone else	3.6	2.1	1.9	4.9	4.7	12.8
NS	5.5	9.4	5.2	4.2	5.6	11.1
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Of course, Zogby could be wrong. His methodology for selecting his polling sample may be off, which would explain the hard to believe female support for Obama. We'll see in 11 or 12 hours.

Follow Rob Kall on Twitter: www.twitter.com/robkall

Comments

[Rob Kall - Huffpost Blogger]

Looks like all those who attacked Zogby were wrong.
He got it right-- strong win in NC, dead heat in IN.

The exit polls also showed he was right on the female vote:
in NC: Clinton 43% Obama 55%
in IN Clinton 51% Obama 49%
As my article stated, this is a huge change from PA.

[pilgrim7]

Way to go, Zogby!

[strifeknot]

Looks like Zogby was right. HRC got routed in NC and may just barely squeak by with a win in IN.

[Nancyann]

This is wonderful news. She is a fraud and a liar !!!!!!

[PhoebeFay]

It makes perfect sense that Hillary would be losing the female vote. She stopped campaigning as a woman weeks or months ago. It started with campaign stunts like downing boilermakers. It continues with her tough talk about obliterating Iran. Now her supporters are coming out and saying it with comments like testicular fortitude and three cojones. Hillary Clinton is trying to run as a man, therefore there's no reason for women to express any particular loyalty to her as a woman.

[JerryinATL]

interesting and food for thought

[Aaror]

Plus the feminists are starting to realize that Hillary would set their cause back even if she won.

[egal]

Unfortunately, it shouldn't be hard to believe that women aren't sticking with Hillary. They should be voting for who they believe will do best what our nation needs. Unfortunately, the reality is that many women feel obligated to vote for Hillary in the name of sexual equality.

Ironically, thereby destroying everything attempts for such equality may have achieved, since they're using voting as a handout intended to elevate a women merely for her sex rather than evaluating her objectively and voting based on policy and efficacy without any consideration for her sex, negative or positive.

Maybe they're finally catching on that they are their own worst enemies in efforts for sexual equality.

[JerryinATL]

women voters put Kenedy in the whitehouse, because he was more handsome and virial looking than Nixon. Maybe they have learned that Policy does matter, regardless of an emotional connection.

[EinChicago]

Zogby is to Obama as Monica is to Bill. Except, Monica apparently didin't swallow or there wouldn't have been a stain. Zogby has pretty much given up any credibitlity he had during this election.

[JerryinATL]

why do liberals besmirch (spelling) others by name calling or vulgar depictions? keep it clean ok

[pilgrim7]

Can Americans be proud of a president who has been caught in farfetched lies such as ducking sniper fire or denying contributions received from Peter Paul, her biggest contributor and fundraiser? A cheater, Hillary signed a pledge that Florida/Michigan votes would not count but now wants to change the rules because she's losing. She wants to change the number of delegates needed to win from 2,025 set by the DNC's rules to 2,208. Did she deliver on her 200,000 jobs promised to New York? Did she accomplish ANYTHING in Congress? Hillary is a polarizing figure. She couldn't get healthcare reform passed with Bill because she alienated her peers. Does that classify as a leader? She can't manage a campaign. Can't or doesn't pay her bills. Lies like a bandit. Obama worked on several bills with Sen. Richard Lugar, a 5-term Republican. He ran a very successful campaign from Day 1. He's a proven uniter.

America started a downward spiral when President Clinton lied about Monica Lewinsky, which cost $7 million and brought the country to a standstill. Bush's WMD lies cost 4000 soldiers' and over 90,000 Iraqi lives thus far. Hillary "will obliterate Iran." McCain said, "BombBombBomb Iran." Obama says, let's talk first. Would you rather have an overt liar who lies for the sport of it? Will she sell your votes for politcial/personal gain?

Pathological: being such to a degree that is extreme, excessive, or markedly abnormal.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pathological

[ResidentChimp]

Can Americans be proud of President who spent 20 years in a marxist Afro-Centric Church that villifies America, blames the Government for creating AIDs, Calls us the US of KKK? Has Obama done anything more than use "just words"?

[newpantaloons]

LOTS!

[JerryinATL]

well said

[pilgrim7]

Are you interested in name-calling, mud-slinging and throwing around lies like sniper fire or do you want the truth?

Even people who hide under white sheets should take time to research the facts instead of feeding on lies/false information.

Fox News, etc., bought all the tapes at Trinity trying to dig out more inflammatory statements by Wright, which they couldn't find. Here are the statements taken from Wright's sermon in 2001 that Obama said he had never heard prior to the sound bites on Fox :

1. "God d**n America."

2. "No one has ever called Hillary Clinton a n***a."

3. "The chicken's have come home to roost" (taken from the former ambassador to Iraq who had made such a statement on Fox News the day before Wright's now infamous sermon of 2001.)

Obama's church is not Marxist. Where have you read that? Ignorant rumor.

Have you bothered to research Hillary's church, The Family/Fellowhip? It is a cult. If you had bothered to research her church, you would have found out her church admires and reached out to Adolph Hitler and espouses the teachings of Karl Marx and other Communists as well as some of the teachings of Christ.

Wright was a Marine.

Obama is not a Muslim, no matter how many times it is repeated. No evidence whatsoever. He graduated from Columbia University and Harvard Law School. Since high school, his extracurricular activities have included basketball. Another ignorant rumor.

[JerryinATL]

well said

[ebanks84]

I hope women who are in their right mind are voting for a candidate they can trust. For those who do not have a full deck, well, whatever:)

[AdamX]

Hard to believe? Why? Do you think women are stupid? Do you think women are so sexist that they only base their vote on gender? Do you think it is possible that women, as well as men, recognize that Obama is the best candidate?

[jeanwny]

I would like to confirm there is a larger number of the over "70" crowd, women particularly, who have never wanted to be counted in HRC's demographics. A fact that never gets accounted for in the polls.
Maybe the pollsters should read more posts and listen to Air America Radio, they might get a better look at what people feel as opposed to the way they answer a phone poll. As a resident of WNY for 72 years and especially the past 7 1/2 years , her Senate terms, I can warn the rest of the country, her rhetoric is just that and the machine she uses in these contests is deadly to anyone who stands in its way. This from a wf resident of WNY, the area that was promised 200,000 jobs 8 years ago. Ohio, Pa and probably Indiana fell for the same empty promises. They too will be disappointed by the NAFTA supporter who made those promises.

[JerryinATL]

well said jeanwny

[Dansden]

Republicans despise Sen. Clinton because she used to be one of them.....and now she will use them the same way they use everybody else, but this time the women of America will be able to influence her to correct the injustices they have received from the Republican policies, programs and prevarications.....
and that will be the change that America can live with....the one that American women make in the Whitehouse........

[5thGenDem]

That's a new one! I know plenty of Republicans who hate Clinton, but I've never heard one say "it's because she used to be one of us." They hate her because they hate her husband (who was certainly never a Republican), because of her advocacy of universal health care, because they see her as an uber-liberal, and most of all because of their fear of intelligent, strong and assertive women. She's the personification of "women's lib."

What I don't understand is why the Obamans despise her so. Thank goodness her supporters don't return the favor by despising Obama!

[JerryinATL]

They hate her because .....and most of all because of their fear of intelligent, strong and assertive women

There are plenty of intelligent, strong and assertive women on both sides of the isle such as Condy Rice to name just one.

No, most of America cannot stand Hillary, because they see clearly........
1) that she is a manipulative pathological liar.
2) In the old days the whitehouse staff used to call her 'queen Hillary'.
3) She tried to userp the vice president's office and bill had to step in and get it back for Al Gore.
4) She ran from sniper fire.
5) She was named after SIr Hillary
6) She could not find the Rose Law Firm billing records in the top of her closet
7) She made 100k from 10k in cattle futures
8) She claimed she didn't know about Bill's affairs, but ran the 'BIMBO ALERT Squad'
9) NY thinks she is a lousy JR Senator
10) need we go on........­..........­..........­..........­.

[Dansden]

Zogby polling is like 'trolling for Republicans'......
you know they are out there, they're just hiding until they can attack someone they do not like....

[rthom]

Zogby should be banned from polling. Their mistakes have been huge and devastatingly misreprese­ntative--m­ayby there's a bias there somewhere...

[illindependent]

Zogby is a pro Obama democrate, he hates Hillary Clinton, We should not belive his polls, they are shit.

[speakingtruth2power]

Get well soon!

[speakingtruth2power]

He who pays for the polls,

determines who is asked

& what the questions are.

So you shop for results!!

[mdargo]

Hillary Clinton is Dick Cheney in a pants suit.

[ebanks84]

ROTFLOL...­....hehehe­hehe.

[zull2]

From what I've gathered, there are really multiple gender/race reasons that women are either supporting Obama, or that women are still supporting Hillary. Some view throwing their support to Hillary, even though it's essentially a losing cause at this point, as a way of encouraging more women to run for office. Some are supporting Obama primarily because Hillary has seemed to play the race card, while Obama hasn't played the gender card. Some don't like Hillary's condescending "no congratulations" and insulting approach she's taken to running her campaign. And some I've talked to think that Hillary's approach to running a campaign has actually had a polarizing effect that is actually making them worried that it would be more difficult to run a woman for office in 4 or 8 years. (I live next to a college campus, it's hard to avoid discussing this stuff.)

But the biggest reason is the policies and character. Clinton's policies have been exposed as of late as being reactionary and poorly researched, and her character is undeniably damaged from overtly lying about events in her past. The whole Rev. Wright spectacle was in part a spectacle because no one could really be sure or not if it was an issue...but when Clinton lies directly on camera multiple times, there's no escaping that.

[ebanks84]

What a fine analysis. Character should mean everything in a person of authority because they have control over others.