The Clinton Campaign's post March 4th message is to forget about the delegate count and nominate Hillary because she can win the big states Democrats need in November. That argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Here's why:
1) Most of the "Big States" she has won are not battleground states in the fall. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California are solid blue states where Obama would do as well or better than Clinton in a general election against McCain.
2) Of the states she's won so far, the big exception to this rule is Ohio. Ohio is in fact a critical battleground state where Hillary has demonstrated that she has a leg up among lower income whites and older voters. But the polling also shows that in a general election, Barack offsets this advantage in Ohio among young voters and college-educated independents. In a McCain-Clinton match up the later group could gravitate heavily to McCain in Ohio.
In an Ohio general election, Obama's ability to attract independents and mobilize young and minority voters will trump Clinton's advantages among non-college whites -- a group that will break heavily for either Barack or Hillary against the "free trade" McCain.
Just remember, in Ohio right now, "national security" is a job. The economy and trade -- not "national security" -- will almost certainly continue to be the overriding issues for non-college whites in Ohio this November.
3) Obama puts in play a panoply of states where Clinton would have a much tougher time. Obama could potentially win Virginia (13 electoral votes), Missouri (11 electoral votes) and even Mississippi (whose population is 40% African American -- 6 electoral votes). He would be considerably more competitive than Clinton in other battleground states like Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (7 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Michigan (17 electoral votes). The same goes for New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) -- a state where McCain will work hard to woo independents among whom Obama did much better than Clinton in this year's primary.
4) Even in states where Clinton could make a case for some advantages relative to Obama, these "advantages" are far from certain. Take Florida where she might assert an advantage among Latinos. Florida also has up to 500,000 newly enfranchised ex-felons -- many of whom are African American. The problem with these new voters is mobilization, not persuasion. Getting them registered and voting will be hard. Obama would obviously turn out many more African American mobilizable voters than Clinton. And when it comes to Latino voters, Obama's clear record on immigration contrasts well with McCain who has thrown Latino immigration reform aspirations under the bus in order to pander to his party's right wing.
5) Obama has the one quality that allows him to simultaneously motivate mobilizable base voters and appeal to persuadable independents -- the ability to inspire. This quality allows him to broaden the appeal of his candidacy to swing voters. At the same time it allows him to expand the electorate with new young and African American voters who otherwise simply wouldn't vote. Clinton is the anti-inspiration candidate. She will have a much harder time both expanding the electorate and appealing to swing voters. Obama's ability to inspire -- by itself -- makes him a much stronger general election candidate.
6) Finally, let's remember that the base of the Republican Party -- cultural conservatives -- is not so wild about McCain. They are accepting McCain with about as much enthusiasm as children take cough medicine. They know they need him, but they really aren't happy about it. The one thing that could energize the Republican base is their inveterate hatred for Hillary Clinton. Clinton would mobilize right-wing base voters the same way that hatred for Bush motivated Democrats in 2006. Why should we help galvanize the Republican base by nominating Hillary Clinton when we have another great choice?
All of these factors are born out in the consistent survey results that show Obama polls six to ten points better than Clinton against John McCain.
Clinton will have a difficult to impossible time winning the pledged delegate battle. Her only path to the nomination is convincing Super Delegates that she is the most electable. That dog won't hunt.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the new book Listen to Your Mother: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win. The book is available at Amazon.com.
'If Obama wins it is because he as (I thinks he/she means 'has' electrifie
Barack has actually electrifie
What do they know? That Barack's voting record is nearly identical to Hillary's - do they know that he was a corporate lawyer? do they know that he beat Alan Keyes for his Senate seat (like saying you defeated a cartoon character)
His supporters are an angry mob - insulting, vile people - I had a 'friend' yelling at me at dinner on Friday fairly spitting insults about Hillary. (With no new informatio
For people who want to 'be the change', they are the sickest bunch I've ever come in contact with and why I will never vote for Barack.
HE WOULD WIN!!!
Axelrod and other Obama aides said they have learned their lesson from Tuesday. Rather than accept Pennsylvan
Pennsylvan
"Superdele
http://www
In States where ex-felons can vote, by all means let them do so. But when someone asks: "Why is your candidate preferable
It's true that Barack does better in states that are swing states. Hillary does better in states that are going blue anyway no matter who's running (like California
It's all moot, of course, because Hillary and Barack are spending like crazy and ripping each other apart. (And their supporters here forgetting the primary challenger
I have a strong feeling McCain's going to be our next president. That royally sucks.
Obama 12,999,088
Hillary 12,410,650
The difference is only 588,438 out of more than 25 million votes, a virtual tie.
The numbers are a little bit closer with the addition of the Florida popular vote.
Obama 13,575,302
Hillary 13,281,636
Now the difference is even closer only 13,666 votes out of nearly 27 million votes. It makes sense for Hillary to stay in the race BECAUSE IT’S A VIRTUAL TIE! (1)
But that’s not all! The Obama campaign has won in states with a total of only 193 Electoral College votes. Hillary has taken states with a total of 263 Electoral College votes. (2)
This brings the decision that must be made by both candidates
collaborat
1. realclearp
2. Marie Cocco, realclearp
And if anyone is lying, it is Clinton and her campaign. The NAFTA lie just before the TX and Ohio primaries is a perfect example, claiming your opponent is doing something that you are actually doing. Just ask the Canadian government who was telling the truth!
The latest one was claiming that both she and John McCain are more qualified than Obama to be commander in chief. What is she trying to do, help the republican
Unless you believe one can get "experienc
I am sick of Clinton and her campaign. With her win at all cost attitude, she alone will destroy the chances of winning in November and will help elect another war mongering republican as commander in chief. That's just what we need after 8 years of GWB!!!!!!
Hillary has been "harmed" by Obama's "disenfran
If you're a woman and are not voting for Hillary you're "self-hati
She is ready on "Day One" to authorize an illegitima
Not voting for Hillary is NOT AN OPTION! violins take a break . . . .
http://www
Texas went to Obama.
That's good news.
In the bigger picture, what does Clinton's failure say about her effectiven
2) Obama has so far won the national popular vote, even if you add in Fla and Mich; the most delegates overall, even if you add in the superdeleg
3) Why are we still having this conversati
And sure--Obam
Obama's best chance at winning in November is if he runs for Veep on Hillary's ticket. And even that's a stretch. She'd do much better with Edwards, if he'd be willing to go that route again. Edwards could actually HELP her in some of the red states maybe. Jim Webb or Wes Clark might be even better.
Even if Hillary won, they would most likely split the delegates, with only a few more in her favor.
I guess a nationwide popular vote would be too simple and democratic
This is typical Clinton behavior - one set of rules for the Clintons and their elitist friends and another set for everyone else. Hillary expected a coronation and is now acting like a spoiled, petulant child - again, typical Clinton behavior. She is the worst kind of feminist - the kind that rode on the coattails of her husband but believes she made it on her own.
FL and Michigan should hold elections again so Obama can put this to rest.
First off, I'm not sure your math is right that she cannot come close enough to beat him. Keep in mind that Peurto Rico has 55 delegates. Also, Oregon and Kentucky are closed primaries. She can get close enough to win with the Super D's. If neither gets to 2025, that is the only way the rules allow for it being done. I would say at this point, that is a 50/50 shot. It' may tear us apart.
What I'm saying is, Obama could do something that is truly George Washington like and take that spot sooner rather than later. Because either way there is going to be friction. This is as close as a race can get, and Obama people act like the super d's should just vote for him because he has deleagates from a montana that outnumber the delegates where we need to win. That's NOT going to happen.
No matter how you slice it, both have a good claim for the nod, it's NOT just about these pledged delegates. There is going to be a split if we stay on this road.
The thing that makes the most sense if you really care about the progressiv
Change takes time, this could be a perfect recipe for keeping us in power for 16 years. You don't think that those Super D's are going to consider that fact? They should be doing that, and maybe it is a good thing they are there after all. Especially when you consider where Obama got his delegates, Montan, Idaho, Alaska etc. Not really hot bead of the progressiv
When it comes to this general election, winning is the only thing that needs to be though about. It is not so much what we can hope to do at this point, it is the fact that we must stop them from doing what they have been doing. Hillary Obama 08 and Obama - ? 2016 accomplish that goal better than anything we can hope for coming out of a divided Denver.
I respectufl
Not only did she vote for the war, she voted against the Levin amendment.
She is not progressiv
She said she didn't read the whole NIE. How can you vote on something so important, vote against using diplomatic relaitons, and not read the intelligan
If she really beleived the intelligen
If she was thinking about her political future, then what decisions will she make in office to get re-elected
If she thought he was going to use power as a last resort, then why vote against the Levin amendment?
There is no way around it, all who voted in such a irresponsi
I know it isn't just her, too many politician
Few read the whole NIE.
Even fewer persued the Bush adminstrat
Those few should be commended.
Forgive and forget is not a good way to elect a president.
SO PLEASE TELL ME -
How is this progressiv
Why Should Obama, who is still ahead, concede? (That's makes no sense anyway you slice it)
Why should she be trusted to read more intelligen
Bush didn't read his reports- look at 9/11.
Please, any Hillary supporters
I would be nauseously disappoint
I see nothing progressiv
I care... and so therefore want Hillary to go back to representi