Clinton's "Big State" Myth: Why Barack Obama Remains the Most Electable Democrat This Fall

The Clinton Campaign's post March 4th message is to forget about the delegate count and nominate Hillary because she can win the big states Democrats need in November. That argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Here's why:

1) Most of the "Big States" she has won are not battleground states in the fall. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California are solid blue states where Obama would do as well or better than Clinton in a general election against McCain.

2) Of the states she's won so far, the big exception to this rule is Ohio. Ohio is in fact a critical battleground state where Hillary has demonstrated that she has a leg up among lower income whites and older voters. But the polling also shows that in a general election, Barack offsets this advantage in Ohio among young voters and college-educated independents. In a McCain-Clinton match up the later group could gravitate heavily to McCain in Ohio.

In an Ohio general election, Obama's ability to attract independents and mobilize young and minority voters will trump Clinton's advantages among non-college whites -- a group that will break heavily for either Barack or Hillary against the "free trade" McCain.

Just remember, in Ohio right now, "national security" is a job. The economy and trade -- not "national security" -- will almost certainly continue to be the overriding issues for non-college whites in Ohio this November.

3) Obama puts in play a panoply of states where Clinton would have a much tougher time. Obama could potentially win Virginia (13 electoral votes), Missouri (11 electoral votes) and even Mississippi (whose population is 40% African American -- 6 electoral votes). He would be considerably more competitive than Clinton in other battleground states like Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (7 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Michigan (17 electoral votes). The same goes for New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) -- a state where McCain will work hard to woo independents among whom Obama did much better than Clinton in this year's primary.

4) Even in states where Clinton could make a case for some advantages relative to Obama, these "advantages" are far from certain. Take Florida where she might assert an advantage among Latinos. Florida also has up to 500,000 newly enfranchised ex-felons -- many of whom are African American. The problem with these new voters is mobilization, not persuasion. Getting them registered and voting will be hard. Obama would obviously turn out many more African American mobilizable voters than Clinton. And when it comes to Latino voters, Obama's clear record on immigration contrasts well with McCain who has thrown Latino immigration reform aspirations under the bus in order to pander to his party's right wing.

5) Obama has the one quality that allows him to simultaneously motivate mobilizable base voters and appeal to persuadable independents -- the ability to inspire. This quality allows him to broaden the appeal of his candidacy to swing voters. At the same time it allows him to expand the electorate with new young and African American voters who otherwise simply wouldn't vote. Clinton is the anti-inspiration candidate. She will have a much harder time both expanding the electorate and appealing to swing voters. Obama's ability to inspire -- by itself -- makes him a much stronger general election candidate.

6) Finally, let's remember that the base of the Republican Party -- cultural conservatives -- is not so wild about McCain. They are accepting McCain with about as much enthusiasm as children take cough medicine. They know they need him, but they really aren't happy about it. The one thing that could energize the Republican base is their inveterate hatred for Hillary Clinton. Clinton would mobilize right-wing base voters the same way that hatred for Bush motivated Democrats in 2006. Why should we help galvanize the Republican base by nominating Hillary Clinton when we have another great choice?

All of these factors are born out in the consistent survey results that show Obama polls six to ten points better than Clinton against John McCain.

Clinton will have a difficult to impossible time winning the pledged delegate battle. Her only path to the nomination is convincing Super Delegates that she is the most electable. That dog won't hunt.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the new book Listen to Your Mother: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win. The book is available at Amazon.com.

Comments

[57andfemale]

It's not just the superdelegates. It's Florida and Michigan.

I'm surprised that us Obama supporters are still clinging to the "math" argument. Hillary can play havoc with superdelegates and Florida and Michigan. That's how she intends to win. And if Obama is complacent on this, he'll get screwed.

He has to be really smart, listen to all the opposition research he can (I've heard he's really good at this), and tread this very, very carefully.

This is her ace. Every time we get complacent, she finds a way in. The pattern is there, and she's been immensely successful.

Get smart, people.

[justmeinAz]

I agree he has to watch her like he's handling a rattlesnake, but I don't know how that would work. His name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan. How could they possibly give her those delegates?

[BitJam]

Michigan and Florida will not be seated without a re-vote. Clinton surrogates have been resisting a re-vote in Michigan because they fear it will swing to Obama. Even without a fair re-vote, Clinton would only pick up about 30 net delegates from Florida. After a re-vote it should be less.

Clinton can only get about 10 or 15 net delegates from Michigan and Florida.

[scepticalobserver]

If Obama gets screwed out of this nomination, watch the voter participation numbers start to dwindle.
The new voters that have turned out this year, in states large and small are going to stay home.

[mig991]

Exactly. I am not a new voter, but I have never given money or participated in any election beyond just voting. For Sen. Obama I have donated money, I have canvassed, I have phone banked and I have spread the word to anyone who will listen. I have researched voting records of candidates, I have studied FEC documents to see where the money come from. Well you get the point.

Before last year I could have cared less if I was voting for Satan as long as he had a D next to his or her name. Sen. Obama gave this to me and it can not be taken back.

I seriously doubt I will vote for President in Nov if it is McCain v Clinton. What is even the point, they are the same candidate anyway.

Fair is fair, if he has more delegates and he has more popular vote, he is the nominee.

[Bluesage]

And now a lot of people are taking a fresh look at Obama and realizing that he is a politician and doesn't really have angel wings under his suit. I understood why Hillary asked why she is always given the tough questions first. They know she can actually answer the questions and all he has to do is agree and add a few flowery words. Clinton would do very well in the General and I have no doubt that she could trounce McCrazy. I don't have that much confidence in Obama - everyone seem to be so inspired by a man they know very little about. He's not faced tough questions until yesterday and he blundered through them.

[deant]

I'm an Obama supporter, and I would love to see Obama asked a few questions about his positions. Not about Rezko, not about turbans, not about lapel pins.
About his positions. Clinton's been getting the pulpit this whole time and Obama's been painted the candidate of words even though he's as much action as Clinton is.

[justmeinAz]

Interesting comment. Interesting in that it fails to provide a counter arguement to a single point in this blog. It just ignores every well-reasoned point made, and goes "rah, rah, Hillary." If you support her, fine, but since you chose to comment on this blog, why don't you give a shot at refuting some of the points it makes, because I have no idea how you could do that.

[krayyy]

all points are tough to argue.

[January]

Not so. Creamer comes across advocating appeal to new voters and generations while being stuck, himself, in such old school tactics as: states that voted for Obama would not vote for Hillary. A vote for Obama was not a vote against Hillary. That is a specious argument and it's getting tiresome.

How about Creamer conveniently ignoring the issue of racism in the US in order to focus just on Clinton-haters. Yes, Obama would strengthen southern Demos by attracting southern African-Americans. But talk about lack of "a battlegrou­nd." African-Americans are not a battleground for Demos.

Our problem is we have two outstanding candidates with enough attractions between them to win the Presidency alone. Enough dim-witted politicking. It's the GOP we need to beat on, not each other. Commentaries like Creamer's will look just great in the GOP flyers come November. Thanks for nothing.

[rinpochet]

I have to give it to Hillary. She has the ability to mobilize the party like no other. Only problem is that party is the Republican Party.

She won't get the nomination. The Clinton's fraud trial will be set to start in October in Los Angeles. So you'll have the Clintons defending themselves in court right before the General. And that's a winner? The DNC have to be aware of this.

The reason you hear her talking about Obama on her ticket (talk about presumption), she needs the black vote to win and without him she won't get it.

She will lose the nomination and thank God we won't have those two to deal with any more! Also, I doubt that New York will be hers when she comes up for re-election. She has shown that she cares more about personal power then she does about the Democratic party.

Interesting that I started out supporting her and like so many others, now can't stand the sight of her.

[KiwisCanFly]

I didn't know about the Fraud Trial...go­ing to check it out. Thanks

[NYRalf]

I tell this to my Clintonoid friends all the time. They're too militant and keyed in that they can't see the forest for the trees. I'm 100% convinced that should Hillary implant herself as the nominee through back room deals, the Democrats will see an election similar to 1984 - a McCain landslide. I could even see him taking NJ from her. Her candidacy is the nightmare scenario for the party.

[Countess]

It doesn't matter if he wins more votes or states or delegates. Hillary will decide the rules as she should. Without her the democratic party would be too liberal, too ant-war and more tolerant. Give her credit for putting back into place the new democratic southern strategy so they won't need black voters anymore.

[rinpochet]

Sounds like a Republican to me.

[stepintothelight]

Or maybe just an enlightened soon to be ex Dem .... Hmmmmm???

[stepintothelight]

Not need Black voters? Just watch the boost that the Republican party gets after the Dems finish dissing Obama and and the loyalty of Blacks. After all ... it will only be us coming back to the party that ended slavery as opposed to the party that commodofied it. Maybe we will just monolith our way to the third party candidate. Then the Democratic party will never see the light of day again. I love it ... The racism in America is about to boil over and the burns will never heal. I will just call it

KARMATICS!!! It's a b!%@h!!!

[mamamay]

Do you agree with your message? Hil sounds like she is right for the southern people, but what about the USA? do these other people matter? Hil should not be given anything. Tell the folks that the USA is crumbling, and education is losing its value due t o things quoted in your message. We have troops in Iraq and other places wanting to come home, Please think about them. We have folks who cant afford their homes, or heat for their homes, can you think about them? What about the folks losing their jobs, how will they survive? Please think about them. Do you know who is responsible for the jobs moving overseas? Please re think. Some of us are suffering . Bless you if you are Ok. Please vote to unite this country and stop all this drama.

[Guitarsandmore]

Obama will make a fine Vice President.

[deant]

Shame he'll only become President.

[rudyinbama]

Are there really people out there still being "inspired" by the Chicago Gasbag's endless speeches? Please, can you imagine four years of lectures on hope and being asked to "clap for Tinkerbell?" Will Chris Matthews have "shivers" running down his legs forever? (Please, somebody get that sexist fool a diaper!)
People only stick with a TV preacher for so long, and then they move on. This is why Obama's momentum is over - the emperorer's new clothes are wearing thin and people want change - from Obama.
If Creamer thinks his analysis is helpful to Obama, maybe he needs to go into analysis himself - Republicans will have a field day quoting him as to which Democrat holds the lead in the Florida felon vote.

[NYRalf]

Clinton will remain a fine Senator.

[onedivasinger]

Perhaps this might also be her last go around as a senator too. After the antics of this campaign.

[KiwisCanFly]

But a tremendous President.