Even as Clinton Wins West Virginia, Obama's Magic Number Drops to 143 Delegates -- His Political Stock Rises on News from Mississippi
Hillary Clinton won an overwhelming victory in West Virginia's Primary last night. But that victory in the heart of her demographic base did nothing to change the fact that the party's nominee will be Barack Obama.
Obama added at least seven new pledged delegates in West Virginia, brining his magic number to clinch the nomination down to 143. After his victory in North Carolina and virtual tie in Indiana, Obama needed 183 more delegates to cross the 2025 majority set by DNC rules. Since then he has gained 40 delegates and now leads Clinton in super delegates by 12 according to RealClearPolitics.com.
Several other key developments:
* Obama now needs only 17 additional pledged delegates to have an absolute majority of all pledged delegates. He will pass that mark next Tuesday when 103 delegates are at stake in Oregon and Kentucky. At that point many additional super delegates have indicated they will declare for Obama. By this time next week, Obama's magic number will be well into the double digits. It is likely that he will clinch the nomination by the end of the month. It is almost certain he will do so within days of the final primaries on June 3rd.
* While Clinton's win in West Virginia was impressive it should be placed into context. West Virginia is populated with a high percentage of older, non-college, white voters -- Clinton's strongest base of support. The impact of her overwhelming victory there is limited by the state's small size. It is the 13th smallest state -- only slightly larger than Idaho -- and represents .6% of the nation's population. That's why it has only 28 delegates, compared to North Carolina's 115.
* When it comes to blow outs, Obama has won 21 contests by more than 20% -- Clinton only 3 (West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arkansas).
* Even if Clinton were to win 65% of the 189 remaining pledged delegates (which she has no chance of doing), Obama would only need one of every three super delegates remaining today. In fact of course, he actually leads Clinton both in overall super delegates and number of super delegates he has picked up in each of the weeks since Super Tuesday.
* While West Virginia was another reminder that Clinton does has more appeal than Obama among lower income whites, the Washington Post/ABC Poll released yesterday shows how much that is offset by his much greater strength among the independent voters who will mainly decide the fall presidential race. The poll showed Obama leading McCain with this key group by nine points -- 51% to 42%. Clinton led McCain by only 3 points, 49% to 46%.
* The best news for Obama last night came from Mississippi. Democrat Travis Childers victory in Mississippi's first district special election demonstrated conclusively the ineffectiveness of Republican attempts to make Obama a negative for Democratic house candidates.
President Bush won the first district by 25% in 2004. The former Republican incumbent (Roger Wicker) won reelection in 2006 by 66%. Yet Childers won with a healthy 54% to 46% victory -- even after the National Republican Campaign Committee devoted almost $1.3 million of its scarce dollars trying to "tie" Childers to Obama.
It had tried the same tact in Louisiana where Democrat Don Cazayoux was also successful in taking a seat that had been in Republican hands for 3 decades.
And earlier this year, when Democrat Bill Foster won an Illinois special election to succeed retiring former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert, he recruited Obama to make his closing pitch in a TV commercial.
As much as they wish it were true, Obama will not hurt Democratic candidates in down ballot races -- even in very conservative districts. In fact in many cases just the opposite is true. By mobilizing huge numbers of young people and African American voters in November, he will make it more likely that Democrats take an increasing number of Congressional seats in former Republican strongholds - especially in the South.
My apartment in Washington is next door to the Republican National Committee. As I walked by this morning, I could almost feel the whole place quaking in its boots.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
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But don't forget....
I'm not sure what world exist that Blacks get away with racist remarks certainly not the USA. It's unfortunately that the minority just don't understand that our country has made the strided it's made relative to racism by the over whelming majority of Americans working together. We marched together during Dr. Kings tenure and we continue to today.
We would not be where we in this country we love had we not joined hands and walked this road together. That means all races, creed and colors brought American to it's current standing and we are a Proud People. We refuse to let these media division relative to RACE once again DIVIDE OUR COUNTRY.
It just won't happen. There will always be those that don't get on board and for those we pray each and every day. We We the PEOPLE will take our country back we will not be distracted by divisions by Race, Greed, Favors, or anything else. We are the one hurting in this Recission.
you're a racist.
No, she doesn't have a point, because if you actually look at the polls since the Rev. Wright "fiasco", his popularity has actually increased. He's polling further ahead of Clinton right now than he was before Rev. Wright. He's polling higher against McCain than he has ever done since McCain became the GOP nominee. Hillary's argument carries no real weight. Obama's favorability rating among whites is higher than it has ever been. So how does she have any kind of a point whatsoever?
LMAO. You do try.
There is no denying that more Americans pulled the lever for Clinton than Obama. You can muddy it up with BS rules and Rhetoric, but in a basic democratic system, she would be ahead. This is not to say she must be the nominee, but the DNC and Obama have a lot of explaining to do if they think that Obama is the best candidate to run against McCain, which it is clear, he is not.
Clear to who? Not me -- I'm sure Sen. Obama is the one who'll beat McCain in November. And I'm sure that you will join us in electing a Democrat to the White House in '08. Right? Because that's what matters, even Sen. Clinton would tell you that.
OH PLEASE! Stop the spin. That is only the case if you count the contests that all of the Clintons stated difintively wouldn't matter. The GREAT example was this weekend on Meet The Press when Russert read right from McAuliffe's book in McAuliffe's own words where he said the candidates would definitely NOT be seated because the rules are the rules. No doubt about what he meant. Now what? PLEASE!
You people HAVE to get over this fantasy making, twisting the facts all out of shape if you can only find SOME way they work for your case. Not what's best for anyone else, only for poor YOU. This is how we got into the war. This is how we got suckered into every mess we are in, by people NOT wanting to look at the facts as they are but thinking they can twist anything in any way, just to get their way and that somehow it won't matter. BUT IT DOES MATTER. It MATTERS a LOT! And you need to face that fact.
Thanks for agreeing that more people have already voted for her than Obama. The pols, all of them from Obama to McCain are idiots. The people voted at that is what matters.
Clear to whom? Clearly the over whelming majority of Americans agree that Sen. Obama is the nominee to take our country and give it back to hard working Americans not continue to give it to the corporations, greed, favors and continue to place hard working Americans in this RECESSION we are currently in. We are all AFFECTED by the RECESSION unless you have lots of money, that is particularly the poor and the middle class. Perhaps that's ok to some but not the the majority. Our Country exist for We the People and that has not happened for a long time. It's our Votes that count, we can take Congress out just like we put the in. No More, Money, Power And Greed it will be about We The People!
Thanks for agreeing. Obamas pitiful attempt at populism will simply be seen as more elitism BS.
So, she's winning in the poplar vote?
I hear she's very poplar with the gingkos.
"There is no denying that more Americans pulled the lever for Clinton than Obama."
Actually unless you're counting a primary in which he wasn't even on the ballot, no there definitely IS denying that. Barack Obama has won more votes than any primary candidate in history, in either party. So if he's won more than anybody... how has Hillary won more?
Nope you are wrong. Clinton just surpassed Obama in actual votes cast yesterday. Those are all voters and all real people. It is the delusional DNC that thinks they do not count.
Ah, Republicans quaking in their boots. THAT is the sweetest sound I've heard in a long time.
Quake away, little Rethugs. I'll be over here dancing.
OK, here's the math.
These numbers aren't as fresh as this article's, but almost, and it still works out the same.
There are 189 delegates to be won in the remaining primaries (Kentucky-51; Oregon-52; Puerto Rico-55; Montana - 16; South Dakota - 15. Total 189.
There are 250 Super Delegates left.
Florida- 211; Michigan - 157. Total - 368.
Obama had 1,884, needed 142 to get to 2026.
Clinton had 1,718, neede 308 to win.
Total outstanding delegates: 807.
Hillary could possibly reach 2026, as well.
Two things wrong about your point:
1) If Florida and Michigan are counted, the threshold for a majority goes up to 2,209, not 2,026 (and the current threshold is actually 2,025 but that's neither here nor there in this instance)
2) If Michigan is counted, how do you decide how many delegates Obama gets? He (and John Edwards) withdrew their names from the ballot under assurance by the DNC that Michigan would not be counted. If it is counted, how do you go about splitting the delegates fairly? Let me put it this way. Your town holds an election for mayor, and you're running. The election council announces that the election doesn't count, and you withdraw your name. Your opponent does not, and since they are unopposed, gets the most votes. Then, suddenly the election council announces that the election does count. Do you really think it's fair if they decide that your opponent actually won?
exactly! But you know, give Hillary what she wants in FL and MI, she still needs about 7 of 10 remaining supers to go her way.
You can't pretend to care about seating MI and FL sand letting the folks of Puerto Rico ghave a say when your only path to the nomination is to overturn the very pledged delegates the people were electing.
Obama will clinch the pledged delegates on Tuesday, with or without Florida & MI.
In Michigan, the other Dems on the Ballot: Kuciunich, Gravel, Clinton, and Uncommitted.
55% went to Hillary.
Give all uncommitted to Obama.
That's fair.
Your math is wrong. if you count FL and MI the NEW magic number is 2209..you see, if you count all 50 states instead of just 48, the magic number goes up meaning Hillary would have to get about 75% of remaining Supers to win. So yes, it is possible, but why would 75% of Supers choose her, thus overturning the will of the people when Obama will clinch a majority of elected delegates this Tuesday?
If you are going to have elections and count the votes of the people as represented by pledged elected delegates, then how can your only path be to overturn that vote by having an extrodinary amount of Supers just simply declare Hillary the winner.
Hillary can stay in the race without running against Obama. But once a majority of elected pledged delgates have gone to Obama, her supporters should tell her to stop campaining.
Maureen - with no respect due you, your math is fuzzy. And wrong. Go back to the drawing board or go to MSNBC.com - First Read. People much smarter than you (including Hillary's campaign) can't come up with winning numbers.
Nice try
Creative math. Hopelessly wrong, but you get marks for creativity.
What man meant for "evil", God meant for GOOD. I am so glad He is in control!!!
This is true and I'm glad about it.
The sooner Hillary gets over her gigantic ego, and lets Obama start dealing with John McBush, the better! I think Obama is going to romp all over the republicans this year. The reps are done. Finished. Most Americans are sick and tired of the politics of smear and fear, and empty rhetoric that only goes to support the super rich and big business. What ever happened to "we the people?" Republicans do not support or represent the "people." Republicans only support and represent corporations, that's where they've come to, whether some believe it or not. A vote for a republican is a misguided vote against our own humanity. Wake up people. It's time to for a change, and Obama is the man do it!! Go Obama go.
My fear at this point is that Obama will be forced to take Clinton as VP! The arguments against this are numerous: We can't use her in a diplomatic capacity due to her "obliterate Iran" comments. We can't use her to push bipartisan policy due to her high negatives in the Senate. We can't even count on her "coalition" because those blue-collar whites will vote Rebublican in November. And lastly, if Obama is obligated to pay off her $20 million debt, his hard-working supporters will be livid that their money will be used to pay Clinton back because she couldn't raise the money herself!
Hillary can only get that "magic" number in her head. I am really sick of this nomination and want it over, apparently the democrat party has no "cojones" and will let her ramble on.
I can't wait to see what "math" she is going to come up with next. She is truly embarrassing herself. How many victory speeches has she given now and asked for cash at the same time!! Truly amazing woman. I don't want her near Obama
It is way past time for Obama to get out. He cannot carry the states necessary to take back the White House. If he continues to pursue this destructive course then the Republicans will win without even trying. He has lost every MAJOR STATE. Who cares about Wyoming and Idaho. It is OHIO, NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, etc that matter and who won those HILLARY! Get out now Obama
Oh for the love of... please stop spitting out HRC talking points memos and start thinking for yourself. Obama is polling way ahead in PA and is ahead and gaining in OH against McCain. While you're busy insulting other states, Obama bothered to win in places like Virginia (by an absolute landslide) and Colorado and Iowa, all states that went Red in 2000 and 2004 but are totally possible to win in November due to major demographic shifts and high Independent support for Obama. By the way did you bother to notice that the PA primary was a CLOSED primary? You know he's beating McCain in Independents and he's attracting a lot of blue-collar Republicans, so why do you assume that he legitimately "lost" these states?
It all comes down to this: If Hillary was the better candidate she would have won. She had the money, the momentum, and the organization in place to pull it off and she crashed and burned instead.
HAHAHAHAAH
He has the most popular votes. He has the most pledged delegates. He has the most superdelegates. Even in the states where he LOST, he pulled more votes than the Republican winner, sometimes more votes than the TOTAL Republican vote count. And he's not the one who's $20 million in debt, making loans to his own campaign!
*snork* Sorry, it just kills me, this call for him to step down. *honk*
It is way past time for SOMEONE to get out, I agree. Hillary's advisers have been quoted off the record as saying they knew she couldn't win in February. So why has she put us all through this? For her own ego? To damage Obama so much that he cannot win in November and give her a clear field for 2012? Only she can answer that.
The bottom line is that, even if Michigan and Florida are counted in a way that is most advantageous to Hillary, she'll still wind up at least 100 delegates short of Obama. No matter what Howard Wolfson says, the race is over. The sooner Hillary gets on board and works to unify the party behind Obama, the better it will be for everyone.
Obama will win New York, you can bet your bottom dollar that Hillary will not win New York again.
Jupitor is right on! Stop bickering. Emulate Barack. Remember how it hurts when Barack doesn't do well, then figuratively reach out to Hillary, her staff and her supporters. Yet, I strongly suspect Barack can't realistically offer Hillary the VP slot. It's not that he, Michelle and staff can't get behind her political self. They understand that old style politics is Mindlessly ego driven and they have miles to go before they sleep. And they, as well as many of Barack's supporters, are certainly ready to embrace Hillary. Maybe Barack will even offer her a cabinet position and help pay off her debt. I'm certainly ready to contribute as I sure don't want John McBush for another 8 yrs! But Hillary as VP simply isn't politically realistic. If she runs as VP, the McBush Repubs will run multiple negative Hillary ads taken directly from Hillary's campaign, particularly the ones endorsing John McBush which goes something like, "I have the experience to be the POTUS, John McCain has the experience to be POTUS and then we have Sen Obama."
But that was then, this is now... From this time forward, let's pledge to reach out and try to hug a Hillary supporter.
BTW, I'll be crushed, but feel much the same if Hillary somehow manages to steal the nomination
But, now wait a minute.
Are the rules that whomever gets to that magic number, 2026, first, is the winner?
I did the math, and there are enough delegates to be won for both candidates to get 2026.
That's because she has to win 300+ delegates before he wins 143 delegates. There is no reasonable way to argue that this is in any way possible. It requires a miracle of gigantic, earth-shattering proportions. You might as well argue that "Barack Obama could announce he's gay tomorrow, of course she should stay in!" because that's the kind of thing that's going to have to happen in order for her to win by the kind of margins required for this "math" to be possible.
MaureenSharkey. The number is 2025 - NOT 2026 as you say and NOT 2029 as HRC says. If you are going to quote numbers, at least be correct.
Your math sucks. There are only ~440 delegates left. Only one candidate can get to 2026 based on that number. The only way this changes is with the inclusion of Florida and Michigan, and then number to clinch goes to 2209 where, still, only one candidate can reach that number.
The rule now is that the first the to get to 2025 wins. The rule now state that FL & MI are to be excluded completely. Therefore, Hillary can only get to that number if all most Super-delegates go her way and Obama's existing Supers switched to her. Now why would they do that seeing as Obama on Tuesday will clinch the MOST elected pledged delegates?
If you add MI and FL, the new number would change to 2209 if they are fully seated. Of course Obama would get a big chunk of those as well so basically nothing changes.
The only way Hillary wins under any math and any circumstances is if a boat load of Superdelegates suddenly changed their minds and switched from Obama to her.
Much thanks for providing the real deal on what's happening. I needed that. Whew! Now I can concentrate on something else for a change.
Points out something the media hasn't been reporting re the victory in WV: "When it comes to blow outs, Obama has won 21 contests by more than 20% -- Clinton only 3 (West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arkansas).
It's all good and well, but Senator Clinton will simply say:
"I will not be pulled off this stage!"
and take it all the way to the convention.
Let HRC finish out her las hurrah. It is not hurting the party. I felt that way early on but everything I have seen to date proves it wrong. Obama has emerged a far better candidate and all of the wind is at his back. The longer our primary lasts, the less time the right winged slime balls have to attack.
The exist polls do not bear out the MSM's Obama can't win the white working class votes., Only 2 in 10 said race was an issue - that is 20% which is nothing. Besides, WVA will probably vote Republican because the Bush slime machine did a great job in the last 8 years of selling, guns, god and gays. But guess what, the states we will win that we didn't win before will far make up for WVA.
Sit tight and relax my Obama friends, victory is just less than 6 months away.
Yes, now there's an angle no one seems to be taking. While the MSM prognosticates over "Is this hurting Obama?", he has been gaining ground and is now (according to RealClearPolitics) doing better against McCain in polls than he ever has since McCain was made the GOP nominee. So... obviously this isn't hurting him at all in fact as you said, it's probably making people like him more.
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