Even as Clinton Wins West Virginia, Obama's Magic Number Drops to 143 Delegates -- His Political Stock Rises on News from Mississippi
Hillary Clinton won an overwhelming victory in West Virginia's Primary last night. But that victory in the heart of her demographic base did nothing to change the fact that the party's nominee will be Barack Obama.
Obama added at least seven new pledged delegates in West Virginia, brining his magic number to clinch the nomination down to 143. After his victory in North Carolina and virtual tie in Indiana, Obama needed 183 more delegates to cross the 2025 majority set by DNC rules. Since then he has gained 40 delegates and now leads Clinton in super delegates by 12 according to RealClearPolitics.com.
Several other key developments:
* Obama now needs only 17 additional pledged delegates to have an absolute majority of all pledged delegates. He will pass that mark next Tuesday when 103 delegates are at stake in Oregon and Kentucky. At that point many additional super delegates have indicated they will declare for Obama. By this time next week, Obama's magic number will be well into the double digits. It is likely that he will clinch the nomination by the end of the month. It is almost certain he will do so within days of the final primaries on June 3rd.
* While Clinton's win in West Virginia was impressive it should be placed into context. West Virginia is populated with a high percentage of older, non-college, white voters -- Clinton's strongest base of support. The impact of her overwhelming victory there is limited by the state's small size. It is the 13th smallest state -- only slightly larger than Idaho -- and represents .6% of the nation's population. That's why it has only 28 delegates, compared to North Carolina's 115.
* When it comes to blow outs, Obama has won 21 contests by more than 20% -- Clinton only 3 (West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arkansas).
* Even if Clinton were to win 65% of the 189 remaining pledged delegates (which she has no chance of doing), Obama would only need one of every three super delegates remaining today. In fact of course, he actually leads Clinton both in overall super delegates and number of super delegates he has picked up in each of the weeks since Super Tuesday.
* While West Virginia was another reminder that Clinton does has more appeal than Obama among lower income whites, the Washington Post/ABC Poll released yesterday shows how much that is offset by his much greater strength among the independent voters who will mainly decide the fall presidential race. The poll showed Obama leading McCain with this key group by nine points -- 51% to 42%. Clinton led McCain by only 3 points, 49% to 46%.
* The best news for Obama last night came from Mississippi. Democrat Travis Childers victory in Mississippi's first district special election demonstrated conclusively the ineffectiveness of Republican attempts to make Obama a negative for Democratic house candidates.
President Bush won the first district by 25% in 2004. The former Republican incumbent (Roger Wicker) won reelection in 2006 by 66%. Yet Childers won with a healthy 54% to 46% victory -- even after the National Republican Campaign Committee devoted almost $1.3 million of its scarce dollars trying to "tie" Childers to Obama.
It had tried the same tact in Louisiana where Democrat Don Cazayoux was also successful in taking a seat that had been in Republican hands for 3 decades.
And earlier this year, when Democrat Bill Foster won an Illinois special election to succeed retiring former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert, he recruited Obama to make his closing pitch in a TV commercial.
As much as they wish it were true, Obama will not hurt Democratic candidates in down ballot races -- even in very conservative districts. In fact in many cases just the opposite is true. By mobilizing huge numbers of young people and African American voters in November, he will make it more likely that Democrats take an increasing number of Congressional seats in former Republican strongholds - especially in the South.
My apartment in Washington is next door to the Republican National Committee. As I walked by this morning, I could almost feel the whole place quaking in its boots.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
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citing "real clear clear politics" is as valid as citing fox news - that is - not valid at ALL.
WHY are you legitimizing this right-wing website masquerading as unbiased news?
Real Clear Politics presents news items from all perspectives.
The fact that he is a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat is neither here nor there. Hot button issues like abortion and gun control are not the litmus test of the Democratic party but rather the Repubs. We are more flexible and diverse with our coalition.
Obama '08
Oh yeah, electing a pro life and pro gun democrat really has them quaking.
No doubt that Childers is a conservative Democrat, but he is NOT a Republican. He will not vote for the Democratic agenda 100% of the time, but he will support many critical bills. He is the best that can be expected from this district. Be pragmatic and celebrate our victories. These three special elections are very good news for Democrats, and a disaster for Republicans. If we unite and pursue the 50 state strategy, we can pick up many additional seats. I guarantee that you will love many of these new members, and the Republicans will be weeping.
Obama 2008 - Yes We Can!
-Jim Heaphy
I'm a moderate republican but even I don't see electing a yellow dog gun toten anti abortion democrat as a positive step.
But that's exactly the point, amigo. He leaves the repubs no place to go. With him in there, the repubs cannot use their standard hot-button issues to differentiate. They are going to have to work on other, more concrete issues, most of which have already been picked up by the dems. He'll be in there forever.
Thanks for putting things into perspective. The media is very confusing. All these Obama needs white, dumb voters is really jarring. It sounded like we all want our President like Joe next door. Wait, do we not have a dumb P for the last seven years? Do we really want another one?
agree totally. Now if both sides of the democratic can get in line we should be in great position. My feeling is Obama won fair and square, offer Hillary the VP and get this primary over with. I mean it is not like they have any real differences in policy maybe style, but I can live with that
"offer Hillary the VP" ???
That would be suicide for Obama AND the Democratic Party.
Wes Clark is the BEST choice for VP.
I like both Clark and Richardson - but trust Obama to make an appropriate decision.
DJ, Hillary in the VP slot won't make her Appalachian supporters vote for the black man, and it will give the Republican voters something to come out and vote against. NOT a good idea.
Hillary's other voters will vote for the Democratic nominee regardless. Clinton on the ticket would be nothing but an anchor around his neck, not to mention she would be a potential disruptive force inside his administration, should he manage to win the election with her in the VP slot.
I say, if her supporters need appeasement (those who are not Appalachians), then he should offer her a non-ticket spot in his administration.
And it would lose him Republican voters in Wisconsin who are going to vote for him. They won't with Hillary on the ticket. Fair or not, they absolutely HATE the Clintons.
I agree, putting Hillary on the ticket will not win back the down scale voters of OH, PA, or WV, I don't really believe they like her any more than they like Obama. (And don't forget, Hillary supported NAFTA, and her husband has done work for Columbia, China, and Wall Street.) However, he might win some of these voters if he selects a well known and well liked running mate. For people who don't like change, a familiar face will go a long ways towards healing the wounds.
Also I hope Obama makes a compromise over Florida and Michigan before May 31. If Clinton gets credit for solving this problem we will never hear the end of it. She will make it a prominent part of her 2012 Presidential election (God forbid).
I think you meant to say ofer Edwards the VP slot. I think he'd be crazy to offer it to the Clintons.
Hillary cannot be offered the VP.
Surely there is something else she can be "offered", but definitely not his VP.
Thank you for this summary. Obama has already helped Dems in our primary in Wisconsin.
It would be so incredibly foolish of the Democrats to focus primarily on a declining segment of the population. We need to invest in where the party is going, not on where it's been.
I remember being shocked and outraged years ago when I took a sociology of death course as an undergraduate. The professor lectured on the "functions" of death. One of those functions was that death facilitates human progress. I thought that was horrible, despicable. I still don't like the idea of it because it is so "clinical.
But to invest our party's prospects in a diminishing subset of the population is foolish. Honor them. Assist them. Yes, yes, yes. But plan for the future.
Well, don't write off ALL old people. It's been proven that the more you try to learn, adapt, explore, and be mentally active in your adulthood, the less your risk for diseases like Alzheimers and senility -- just more proof that being progressive is good for your health!
Exactly, nycdave. I'm 60 and still actively learning. (And regularly being taught new technologies by my grandchildren!)
Education is the key. No wonder Republicans are so against the idea of subsidized higher education. Uneducated people with few prospects are easier to control. I LIKE Obama's stance on funding all levels of education.
Jefferson considered it the foundation of democracy. His essays on "liberal education" (to liberate one from demogoguery, to be able to keep and maintain liberation/freedom) are still classics. He didn't want anything on his tombstone about having been president. He wanted his tombstone to note that he founded the University of Virginia.
"All stupid people are conservatives. This is not to say that all conservatives are stupid, but it is true that all stupid people are conservati
"It had tried the same tact in Louisiana where Democrat Don Cazayoux was also successful in taking a seat that had been in Republican hands for 3 decades."
I'm sorry, maybe I'm a jerk but this kind of thing really gets my goat. The phrase is 'to take a different tack'. It's a sailing term, referring to the direction chosen relative to the wind in order to reach a destination. To say 'take a different tact' implies the writer doesn't understand the meaning of 'tact', which, for a serious writer, is simply ... ummm... stunning.
You're right; I noticed that too.
But nobody likes a condescending pedant.
When that sort of thing happens with an otherwise intelligent article, I always figure the editorial board ran spell check. If you aren't paying attention the the results it can be odd indeed.
Sorry, "to the results"
I'm sorry, arglebargle, but you are wrong. Other condescending pedants such as myself like condescending pedants just fine. Someone has to preserve the art of communicat
tact = adroitness and sensitivity in dealing with others or with difficult issues
tack = a boat's course relative to the direction of the wind
I noticed the error as well; perhaps he meant to use "tactic" instead
Great article as always. The Repugs have not quite figured out Obama yet. He keeps rolling. Hillary and the Repugs have actually been trying similar tricks, including recruiting Limbaugh to to do the cross-vote and the racebaiting thing but have still failed. Great post.
Finally this morning when I got up no news media was harping about how w.virginia was a big win for hillary, but admitting it was simply the end of the road. As she makes a win, he gets more delegates and inch closer to the end of the line. Finally a article that puts it into perspective. Finally the media is saying the trueth. Never thought they'd get there. Now if Hillary could wrap her head around it, we could get on fighting Mccain. How wonderful, it's time guys to let the hillary supporters join the crowd , and stop the bickering. No more doubts now! We need them guys , so be gentle and say Welcome Hillary supporters to the team of "Beat Mccain/Bus
Don't put too much credence about Obama not hurting Childers. He ran away from Obama. When asked about Obama 'He said don't know him, never spoke to him and didn't know he endorsed me" Childers is a well known conservative democrat in district one. He played up his good ole boy status. Basically I'm not an interloper from Memphis and Mississippi is my priority not Tenn. Childers is not a progressive. He will vote with the republicans when it's in his interest to vote against the party for self preservation.
I applaud each step in the journey.
Still slightly better than a Republican.
"My apartment in Washington is next door to the Republican National Committee. As I walked by this morning, I could almost feel the whole place quaking in its boots." ROTFLMAO
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