Frightened by McCain's Post-Convention Bounce? Three Things You Can Do Personally To Affect the Outcome of the Election

Over the last couple of days I've received more calls and emails than I can count from people with fear in their voices. They want to know what to make of McCain's post- convention bounce in the polls. They want to know if Obama can still win. Most of all they want to know what they can do to help.

McCain's post-convention bounce resulted from two factors:

First, was three days of the Republican Convention, during which large numbers of viewers watched Republicans and fellow travelers like Joe Lieberman repeatedly deliver a carefully crafted message. They blasted Obama. They postured about change. Their kids looked adorable. Subject anyone to largely one-sided messaging for a week and some will be convinced. Some of that will stick; much will disappear as memories of that experience fades.

Second - and more importantly - McCain's pick of Sarah Palin moved a lot of white women. The Washington Post poll released today showed white women shifting from an eight-point pre-convention lead for Obama to a 12-point McCain advantage.

What does this mean for the outcome of the race?

The race today is about even, with McCain having a slight advantage in the popular vote, and Obama having an advantage in electoral votes. The effect of exposure to the convention itself will likely diminish over the next several weeks. In 2004, Bush moved to a nine-point lead after his convention and most of that gap disappeared within a few weeks.

The long-term effect of the Palin factor is less certain. Much depends on what all of us choose to do now.

There are about ten likely electoral vote scenarios that could develop in this race. In eight of them, Obama is the winner. The underlying desire for change, and the overall disgust with the Bush-Republican administration of the last eight years, is just as real as ever. The website www.Fivethirtyeight.com employs a sophisticated projection model to predict electoral outcomes, and it still gives 61.2% odds that Obama will win in November.

But this week's polling numbers have certainly given a wakeup call to lots of Progressives who might have become complacent in their views that Obama's victory was a lock.

What did we think - that the gang who has run this country for the last eight years would simply roll over and surrender without a fight? These guys are very good at running elections and they will bite and claw and gouge eyes to win.

Luckily, we don't have to just sit by and watch from the sidelines, and hope that someone else makes the right call or runs the right TV spots.

There are three steps that every one of us can take that will actually impact directly the ultimate outcome of this race.

1). Remember that you are Obama's best campaign commercial. Obama made a good deal of progress at his own convention in convincing swing voters he is not just an agent for change, but a "safe" choice. But there are still a lot of voters who worry about Obama. They aren't really too worried if he is "experienced" enough (though they may say so). The movement of white women to Sarah Palin should put an end to any thought that "experience" is the main issue. They are worried if he will "safely be on their side."

The message that is most persuasive at convincing someone that Obama is "safely on their side" is having someone who is like them talk to them about why they support Obama - and why they are against McCain-Palin. "If Mary or Sarah likes Obama I guess he must be OK."

If you want to help win this election, it means you might have to break the "taboo's" about not talking about politics with your neighbor or your co-worker. It means you have to bring up the campaign over the lunch table or the backyard fence. It means you can't just go along when someone says something like "Palin is such a breath of fresh air." No, you must tell them, actually she's never been for "reform" and she embraces all of the economic policies that allow big companies to make tons of money while incomes of people like us fall.

Want to make calls to swing voters like you in swing states? The Obama campaign can hook you up with lists to call and get a report from you on the outcome through their website, www.MyBarackObama.com. And don't feel like the conversations you have are just a drop in the bucket. There will be hundreds of thousands of other volunteers around America who will be doing the same thing.

2). Don't unwittingly contribute to their narrative. Most swing voters aren't excessively focused on "experience." They think the gang with lots of experience has done a pretty crummy job, at least for them. They want someone who is "on their side." One reason that many white women like and identify with Palin - at least at first blush - is because they think she identifies with them.

When Progressives make "elitist" attacks on Palin, they just reinforce the right wing narrative that the "Elitist Eastern Establishment" is the problem. Don't patronize the very people we are trying to convince.

From most people's points of view, the problem with the McCain-Palin ticket isn't so much that Palin is from a small town in rural Alaska and hasn't got the experience to run the country. The arguement that is convincing to normal people is that neither McCain nor Palin are what they claim to be - reformers or agents of change. Their campaign is being run by lobbyists for the biggest corporate interests in America--the same people who ran the Bush campaign. And they are committed to the economic policies that make average people's incomes drop and reward the very rich.

McCain and Palin act as though they identify with the interests of the guys in the NASCAR grandstand and the women at the PTA - but they are doing the bidding of the guys from Wall Street and the women wearing $4,500 outfits like the one Cindy McCain donned for the Republican Convention.

Our assault on McCain and Palin must never be done from an elitist perspective, but from a populist perspective.

3). Take personal responsibility to win this election. More than any election in modern political history, this election will be decided by the work of millions of people who talk to their neighbors, make small donations on the internet and - most importantly - demand that every voter go out to vote.

And I mean demand that every voter go to the polls. To win, we need to change the electorate. In this election, friends don't let friends not vote. There is too much at stake. The damage of another four years of Bush-McCain economic and foreign policy would be catastrophic for the future of our children, and children all over the world.

The key point is this: don't just whine to your friends about what the campaign should do, or the party should do, or the candidate should do. Take personal responsibility to do the two things that will win: persuade swing voters, and mobilize voters who won't vote unless they are motivated to do so.

The Obama campaign has the best field operation in the history of presidential politics. Join it. Take an assignment. Make contributions on the Internet. Hold a fundraiser. Write a letter to the editor. Most important: don't sit on the sidelines.

The recent polls should provide a call to arms to everyone who wants change in America or believes in progressive values.

Don't think what you do is inconsequential or can't affect the outcome. My firm, the Strategic Consulting Group, ran the field operation for a wonderful congressional candidate in south Florida in 2000. We did a great job. We knocked on every door. We pulled out lots of votes. But we lost by 550 votes. It was the same 550 votes that beat Al Gore and gave us George Bush.

If we had just dragged out one more Democrat per precinct in the closing hours of that Election Day, America would have been spared the nightmare of the last eight years. Each of us could decide the outcome of this election, too.

In 2008, Progressives in America are presented with an unprecedented opportunity to fundamentally change the direction of American politics. As I argued in my book, Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, we could be on the verge of a new progressive era in America. If we win, progressives will be able to take the offensive and reshape the political and economic structures of our society for the first time in four decades. We can come out of our defensive crouch and help shape a democratic society infused with progressive values, with the fundamental principle that "we're all in this together" not "all in this alone."

But to have that opportunity we have to win - and winning requires that we all stand up now and take the future into our own hands. The game is on. Get out of the stands and onto the field, into the arena. The work we do over the next 56 days could be the most important that any of us will do in our lives. Let's not miss this precious opportunity to make history.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[socialmistfit]

All I have to do to influence my moderate left-of-center friends to vote for McCain-Palin is to show them this website. Keep it up!

[maddie0001]

Interesting point, I send my friends to the hysterical right wing blogs.

[katysax]

The pick of Palin was the last straw for me. I've been watching the Pundits and watching this campaign and getting angrier and angrier. Last week I decided that my anger needed a focus. This weekend I am going to Camp Obama to train as an organizer. Then I am going to Nevada for five weeks to organize for Obama. I am an attorney and a business owner. This pick of Palin is an insult to the American public and to women.

I agree. The best response is to work hard until the election.

[Paprikapink]

Yay for katysax!

[Kenji]

Let's remember that voters, especially women, have turned against otherwise liberal Dems for being anti-choice. We shouldn't let up for a minute on this deal-breaking aspect of Palin's many terrors.

[b3rekows]

I'm a recent graduate from a university in michigan, because the majority of my friends have moved out of the state after graduation to find jobs I have begun sending messages via facebook and myspace containing links and info about absentee voting. This way they only have to click on the link and fill out the application.
I also include some information on obama taylored to their interests, like sending my friends who are teachers facts about obamas education policies.
This is a very easy, quick and effective way to reach people, especially when u are persistent with getting them to vote.

[txgirl1070]

When did having a fine education make a person an elitist? How stupid. I don't have a Harvard degree, but I sure wish I did. I commend anyone who made it to an Ivy League school on their scholastic merit. If my child does well enough to get into one, I'll beg, borrow and steal to make sure they can go. An education is something to be proud of and admired. I commend Sen. Obama and his wife and can't imagine better role models for all Americans, but especially for black American children who often feel they could never attain such a feat.

[Nonpartay]

Hear, hear! Isn't it odd that people jump through the most ridiculous hoops to get their kids into the BEST colleges, often spending all kinds of money for training for the tests and interviews, and yet when we have a chance to have a President who actually did fantastically well at the country's best rated school, Harvard, some are dismissive of his achievements and call him an elitist. I'm with you. I think he makes a great role model for everyone, and we should be proud that he chose service to his country instead of the corporate riches he could have made easily. We've had 8 years of a mediocre student in the White House. We could have 4-8 years of a GREAT student in the White House (or a poor one, graduating near the bottom of his class!). Let's go for excellence for a change!!! We are so lucky Obama cares this much about his country to run. I don't envy him the job. What a mess he has to deal with when he gets there. ::sigh::

[Bluejay00234]

Warning tr0lls below!

[gage]

Here's a guide to winning over more swing voters.

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/08/seeking-swing-s.html

[Bluejay00234]

Warning trolls below!

[TuesdayMorning]

I'm busy getting out the vote. I don't regard DEMAND as being rude. In this case it's assertiveness and explaining the issues and what's at stake.

Who do they poll? I'm registered and I've never received a call and other people I know have never been called.

[research]

land line phone to old people with time on their hands. Even then, only 1% of calls or less result in complete surveys. It's BS.

[Nonpartay]

I've never been called either, though I probably wouldn't answer my landline anyway if I didn't know who was calling. I'm an independent registered voter and very much for Obama. Remember, there are millions more Democrats than Republicans, and I think that number will continue to grow with such a splendid campaign. Don't worry, be happy! :)

[freedog]

According to cnn McCain and the RNC had more cash on hand than Obama and the DNC. The best thing you can do is open your wallet and throw your money down the drain, along with Obama's hopes to be president. Should have picked Hillary.

[ebethgay]

Obama hasn't announced his August numbers yet, has he?

[Nonpartay]

Palin's speech got him almost $10 million more. :)

[janvier28]

Why should they have picked Hillary? So the Republicans definately would win?

[Lotus19]

Excellent article. It's uplifting and should move people to action. I had already put on my to-do list to call some friends in Florida and encourage them to reach out.
Now *this* is an article that should be circulated to our email lists. It help us to not feel so helpless while we watch the Palin effect take hold. It's real, as illogical as it may seem.

[portateck]

Don't bother to call us in Florida. We may eat gator stew rather than moose stew, but your san fran message does not resonate here. Most of the bloggers and the contributors to this site don't have a clue to what is important to the people that are the backbone of america. This country was built on our blood, sweat and tears and it is refreshing to finally have a 'real' and honest american ticket to vote for.

[M1]

No, this Country was built by all Americans.­..one America, one Nation. I do not know what the San Francisco message is but I want one America for my brothers and sisters which includes you too.

[lohy]

I believe strongly that the Palin bounce will wear thin. This is only another case of Republicans putting lipstick on a pig.....Jo­hn McCain.

We need to stay strong and commit to the three article of faith Creamer presents. I went to my local Obama office today and signed up to provide rides to the polls.

[freddynono]

Mary corners Jane at the water cooler. Explains to her all about Obama. Jane's inner voice speaks with prerequisite reverb...

"If Mary likes Obama I guess he must be OK."

Is that how the author thinks is goes down. You just have to explain it to your co-workers. And don't forget to encourage them...er.­..DEMAND that they vote. DEMAND!

I can see you'll be a big hit around work and the neighborhood as you walk around prostlytizing.

I hate zealots of any sort. If you are my co-worker or neighbor and I wanted to know about your political views..I'l­l ask you. Don't impose yourself on others. This article starts to sound like a guide book for Jesus freaks on how to save people.

[exxman]

Your patron saint Rush Limbaugh would be proud of you.

[freddynono]

I actually dislike Rush Limbaugh. So nice try. Limbaugh is an example of what I' talking about. And worse he just preaches to the choir. Much like what goes on in these posts.

Like I said...if I wanted to know what my co-worker thinks about the election I'd ask them. Don't go forcing your opinions on other people. And who are you or anyone to DEMAND that I vote. I'll vote or not vote and it is none of your business.

[Ogiv]

Shouldn't it be Former Jews For Jesus. Or maybe Fake Jews. What if you were a "non-practicing" Jew? Would you then be a former non-practicing Jew for Jesus, or because you were non-practicing you were never really a Jew, so you would just be Christian? What if I had started out Christian, married a Jew, converted to Judaism, then rediscovered Christianity? Is there an Atheists for Jesus? Where are all the Muslims for Jesus? What if I'm Christian but I really like Mohammed but I don't want to give up on Jesus? Am I a Christian for Jesus with a side of Mohammed? What if I only agree with some of Jesus' teachings? Am I a Christian (or Jew or Muslim for that matter) for Jesus, sort of? I think JFJ's got a lot of explaining to do.

[elizaW]

Your three steps won't work because the foundation of Obama's campaign has crumbled. He's not the candidate of change. People don't feel secure with him because he's flipflopped on key issues. And he is ...as are most of the people who post here...an elitist. You can have one elitist talk to their neighbor who is also an elitist and that won't get you an extra vote. Trying to convince an average American, you know one of those red states people, the type that elitists can't stand except when an election rolls around and they want their vote... is another thing. Even in this post here, your condescening atttiude towards those voters is in full display. Why should they support or trust you or Obama? They do have every reason to trust and vote for Sarah Palin...an­d they will.

[Roses]

"because he's flipflopped "
.....Oh right.....
......you mean flip-flopping like saying you're for a woman's right to choose and then flip-flopping to say you're against that to being pro-life..­....
.....or when you are against the Bush tax-cuts and then flip-flopping to support them.....
.....or when calling the religious right "agents of intolerance" and then flip-flopping to actively courting them.....
....or when he stated that the US used toture in some instances and then flip-flopped to embrace the definitions of "enhanced interrogation techniques" used by the White House and denied any use of torture...­.
....or when he wrote a bill on campaign finance reform and then flip-flopped and opposed it...
....or when he was against Grover Norquist and Jerry Falwell and all their ideas and then flip-flopped and embraced them.....
Is that the flip-flops you refer to?????

Obama/Biden '08

[Vote For America]

Obama 274, McCain 264
http://voteforamerica.net/electoral.aspx

GOP Stealing Democrat's Blue Brand
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=47&ArticleName=GOP+Stealing+Democrat%27s+Blue+Brand

[renatam]

Karl Rove admitted today he is "involved" formally in the McCain/Palin Campaign.

Any questions?

[thenextquagmire]

Watch it turn to sh*t over the next two months....­.. That's what happens with everything the man touches...­Administra­tions, Countries, Laws, Constitution, etc. etc.