Frightened by McCain's Post-Convention Bounce? Three Things You Can Do Personally To Affect the Outcome of the Election

Over the last couple of days I've received more calls and emails than I can count from people with fear in their voices. They want to know what to make of McCain's post- convention bounce in the polls. They want to know if Obama can still win. Most of all they want to know what they can do to help.

McCain's post-convention bounce resulted from two factors:

First, was three days of the Republican Convention, during which large numbers of viewers watched Republicans and fellow travelers like Joe Lieberman repeatedly deliver a carefully crafted message. They blasted Obama. They postured about change. Their kids looked adorable. Subject anyone to largely one-sided messaging for a week and some will be convinced. Some of that will stick; much will disappear as memories of that experience fades.

Second - and more importantly - McCain's pick of Sarah Palin moved a lot of white women. The Washington Post poll released today showed white women shifting from an eight-point pre-convention lead for Obama to a 12-point McCain advantage.

What does this mean for the outcome of the race?

The race today is about even, with McCain having a slight advantage in the popular vote, and Obama having an advantage in electoral votes. The effect of exposure to the convention itself will likely diminish over the next several weeks. In 2004, Bush moved to a nine-point lead after his convention and most of that gap disappeared within a few weeks.

The long-term effect of the Palin factor is less certain. Much depends on what all of us choose to do now.

There are about ten likely electoral vote scenarios that could develop in this race. In eight of them, Obama is the winner. The underlying desire for change, and the overall disgust with the Bush-Republican administration of the last eight years, is just as real as ever. The website www.Fivethirtyeight.com employs a sophisticated projection model to predict electoral outcomes, and it still gives 61.2% odds that Obama will win in November.

But this week's polling numbers have certainly given a wakeup call to lots of Progressives who might have become complacent in their views that Obama's victory was a lock.

What did we think - that the gang who has run this country for the last eight years would simply roll over and surrender without a fight? These guys are very good at running elections and they will bite and claw and gouge eyes to win.

Luckily, we don't have to just sit by and watch from the sidelines, and hope that someone else makes the right call or runs the right TV spots.

There are three steps that every one of us can take that will actually impact directly the ultimate outcome of this race.

1). Remember that you are Obama's best campaign commercial. Obama made a good deal of progress at his own convention in convincing swing voters he is not just an agent for change, but a "safe" choice. But there are still a lot of voters who worry about Obama. They aren't really too worried if he is "experienced" enough (though they may say so). The movement of white women to Sarah Palin should put an end to any thought that "experience" is the main issue. They are worried if he will "safely be on their side."

The message that is most persuasive at convincing someone that Obama is "safely on their side" is having someone who is like them talk to them about why they support Obama - and why they are against McCain-Palin. "If Mary or Sarah likes Obama I guess he must be OK."

If you want to help win this election, it means you might have to break the "taboo's" about not talking about politics with your neighbor or your co-worker. It means you have to bring up the campaign over the lunch table or the backyard fence. It means you can't just go along when someone says something like "Palin is such a breath of fresh air." No, you must tell them, actually she's never been for "reform" and she embraces all of the economic policies that allow big companies to make tons of money while incomes of people like us fall.

Want to make calls to swing voters like you in swing states? The Obama campaign can hook you up with lists to call and get a report from you on the outcome through their website, www.MyBarackObama.com. And don't feel like the conversations you have are just a drop in the bucket. There will be hundreds of thousands of other volunteers around America who will be doing the same thing.

2). Don't unwittingly contribute to their narrative. Most swing voters aren't excessively focused on "experience." They think the gang with lots of experience has done a pretty crummy job, at least for them. They want someone who is "on their side." One reason that many white women like and identify with Palin - at least at first blush - is because they think she identifies with them.

When Progressives make "elitist" attacks on Palin, they just reinforce the right wing narrative that the "Elitist Eastern Establishment" is the problem. Don't patronize the very people we are trying to convince.

From most people's points of view, the problem with the McCain-Palin ticket isn't so much that Palin is from a small town in rural Alaska and hasn't got the experience to run the country. The arguement that is convincing to normal people is that neither McCain nor Palin are what they claim to be - reformers or agents of change. Their campaign is being run by lobbyists for the biggest corporate interests in America--the same people who ran the Bush campaign. And they are committed to the economic policies that make average people's incomes drop and reward the very rich.

McCain and Palin act as though they identify with the interests of the guys in the NASCAR grandstand and the women at the PTA - but they are doing the bidding of the guys from Wall Street and the women wearing $4,500 outfits like the one Cindy McCain donned for the Republican Convention.

Our assault on McCain and Palin must never be done from an elitist perspective, but from a populist perspective.

3). Take personal responsibility to win this election. More than any election in modern political history, this election will be decided by the work of millions of people who talk to their neighbors, make small donations on the internet and - most importantly - demand that every voter go out to vote.

And I mean demand that every voter go to the polls. To win, we need to change the electorate. In this election, friends don't let friends not vote. There is too much at stake. The damage of another four years of Bush-McCain economic and foreign policy would be catastrophic for the future of our children, and children all over the world.

The key point is this: don't just whine to your friends about what the campaign should do, or the party should do, or the candidate should do. Take personal responsibility to do the two things that will win: persuade swing voters, and mobilize voters who won't vote unless they are motivated to do so.

The Obama campaign has the best field operation in the history of presidential politics. Join it. Take an assignment. Make contributions on the Internet. Hold a fundraiser. Write a letter to the editor. Most important: don't sit on the sidelines.

The recent polls should provide a call to arms to everyone who wants change in America or believes in progressive values.

Don't think what you do is inconsequential or can't affect the outcome. My firm, the Strategic Consulting Group, ran the field operation for a wonderful congressional candidate in south Florida in 2000. We did a great job. We knocked on every door. We pulled out lots of votes. But we lost by 550 votes. It was the same 550 votes that beat Al Gore and gave us George Bush.

If we had just dragged out one more Democrat per precinct in the closing hours of that Election Day, America would have been spared the nightmare of the last eight years. Each of us could decide the outcome of this election, too.

In 2008, Progressives in America are presented with an unprecedented opportunity to fundamentally change the direction of American politics. As I argued in my book, Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, we could be on the verge of a new progressive era in America. If we win, progressives will be able to take the offensive and reshape the political and economic structures of our society for the first time in four decades. We can come out of our defensive crouch and help shape a democratic society infused with progressive values, with the fundamental principle that "we're all in this together" not "all in this alone."

But to have that opportunity we have to win - and winning requires that we all stand up now and take the future into our own hands. The game is on. Get out of the stands and onto the field, into the arena. The work we do over the next 56 days could be the most important that any of us will do in our lives. Let's not miss this precious opportunity to make history.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[JilHurley]

I couldn't agree more. I never thought I could make a difference, recently, I made a trip to Montana. When the staff at the hotel found out we were from Illinois they pulled me aside and asked me about the "radical" Obama. I told them how well liked Obama is in Illinois and about his legislative record. I ended up being in Montana again and the same people came to tell me they had voted for Obama in the primary...­.and were going to support him for President. Ever since then, I have bought Obama buttons in bulk, I wear one when I travel, people always ask. If they have a really positive reaction, I ask them if they would like a button to wear...mos­t say yes and walk away wearing one. (However, I did get verbally attacked by a woman in Oxford, MS yelling that someone with Obama's middle name would set the country back 2000 years...th­e good news, some college students followed me out and asked about Obama...an­d walked away with buttons.) Knowing the facts, not expressing opinions about Palin has also been very effective. People are interested and they are scared.

[herointheend]

This is precisely the message that needs to be sent. This is not a movie; this is a real life battle for the future of our country. The true "elite" - i.e. the Republican establishment - hopes to win this election on the premise that we are a nation of morons. They want you to vote for a pretty Governor without examining exactly what the hell she actually believes. If McCain/Palin prevail, the question as to whether we are a nation of morons will be answered. Do you want to be complicit in that result by doing nothing to prevent it?

[freddynono]

I love this this...if you win you have saved the country. If we win we are a nation of morons. No respect. Just this blindness.

Please know this...we are just as well informed as you are on issues. We see through the bull on both sides. We just see the solution to things differently than you. So despise what you don't understand. Belittle us and continue to think that you are smarter than the other half of the country. Call us morons. And you will deserve and have earned the 'elitist" charge. which is why you guys lose elections. You really look down on half the country.

[Roses]

Hey Freddy---
First of all this is not a football game. "You" are not morons. "We" are not morons. I am sure there is a healthy mix to go around for everyone. Most of us are scared by what is happening right now (the war, the economy, the cost of living) and just trying to get by......li­ving our lives.....­..being Americans.
If anything we don't have enough understanding of one another. I agree that the "other side" is often as well-informed but just has a different basic world view. I don't agree that we all look down on half the country. There are probably as many people who do that as there are people who think we are all "elitists" and look down on "our side".
One of the reasons that I was initially attracted to Obama was that he wanted us to think of ourselves first as Americans and try to find our common ground....­.something I've not heard from a politician before.

Obama/Biden '08

[WayofLife]

We only lose elections because we don't vote. We ain't making that mistake again.

And we think you are morons because you had full power to implement every last pathetic policy that you wanted, and you failed miserbly. You failed with peoples livelihoods, and in the worst of all cases you failed with people's lives. You took a huge surplus and turned into the largest deficit in history. Our children will be paying for your failed policies. We don't care if you think we are elitist; and we do look down on you because you it's idiotic to keep doing the same thing with a different result. And what's even scarier, is the people you want in charge aren't half as smart as Bush.

OWN YOUR FAILURE. They aren't changing anything. Read the platform. Your party only wants power for power's sake.

You obviously didn't see the writing in the streets in St. Paul.

So if I were you guys I'd be very, very glad that right now the only thing we are doing is voter drives and calling you morons...

[nhplanner]

Everyone who supports Obama should really take this post to heart. I made my first donation today to Obama's campaign, and I intend to break the taboo and starting talking to my friends and neighbors about why i support him for president. We can't afford another 8 years like the last, and unfortunately that is all McCain has to offer.

New Hampshire Independents for Obama!

[tbirdfrank]

Don't forget to vote for Paul Hodes also! He is a friend of mine and has done a great job in his first term as Congressman of your second district. Your state is crucial Obama needs it to win this thing!

[WorkingNHMomof3]

The Obama HQ office in Manchester has a lot of resources to help you. They are on Elm St. a block or two south of the Verizon Center.

[harborfish]

When I talk to an ignorant redneck or basic racist usually they say they like Obama, but they are afraid to vote for a black guy. That's when I say, Hey! he's half white!

[freddynono]

I'm glad the author doesn't want to patronize the simpleton's.

Mary tells Jane why she should vote for Obama. We see Jane standing by the onion dip with cocktail in hand. We hear her inner voice complete with prerequisite reverb...

"If Mary or Sarah likes Obama I guess he must be OK."

that'll do it ! Jane is on board. And don't forget to make sure ...I mean DEMAND that she votes.

Follow his advice and I think you'll be making lots of friends at work and parties by breaking the taboo and talking about the election at every little place you go. Heck, why limit it to work and your neighbors.­.why not just tell everyone at the grocery store. I'm sure they'll love it.

I hate proselytisers of any ilk. It is rude and unwelcome.

[mandudemanguy]

Excellent article, I totally agree!

[progresivo]

We all know the media needs a close race, they're a bussiness, a bussiness needs to sell, a close race pumps up their sales, so they're giving McCain a boost, it's the natural thing to do.

And if you didn't already know read my words: This race is Obama's to lose. That simple.

If the Obama campaign executes as well in the general election as in the primaries Obama would be the next president of the US. If they not it would be the biggest waste of money and effort in history.

[SailFree]

If the media wanted a close race, why were they pushing Obama so hard?

[schmuckwithearlaps]

Sarah "Evita" Palin has set off a semi-rational emotional appeal to voters not seen north of Argentina in many years. You don't counter such an emotional and (look, we are all grown ups here) sexual appeal with plays from the old rule book. Obama's advisors need to train him to answer the question of how much two and two equals in less than a hundred words. Then he has to counter Palin's sex appeal with some of his own. Sorry, that sounds crude, but there it is. Evita has Americans excited. We need to make American excited about the issues and saving the country from destruction. The stakes are high enough that we must face the current reality. Palinmania is not rational. It needs to be fought with every tool known to twenty first century politics.

[nagor76]

I have already lined up rides for 25 senior republican voters. We like the fact that our candidate has a track record. Not someone part way into his first term.

[cbat]

Wow, 25, well, we got a lot more than lined up to go vote, good luck. Just because someone has been around for a long time does not mean he is the best. McCain has been in Washington for a long has very little accomplishments, I looked up. I rather have a new guy with new ideas, than an old guy with same old ideas.

I not do want another president whose idea of how to govern this is country is based on some John Wayne war movie or Die hard movies. We need a grown up for God's sake.

On Saturday, former Bush speechwriter David Frum wrote on his National Review blog, "George W. Bush had very slight executive experience before becoming president. His views were not well known. He won the nomination exactly in the same way that Palin has won the hearts of so many conservatives: by sending cultural cues to convince them that he was one of them, understood them, sympathized with them. So that made everything else irrelevant in 2000 - as it seems again to be doing in 2008." But in the end, Frum wrote, Bush lacked "important aspects of leadership which is how we got into the mess from which he needed to rescue the country and himself."

[MyGoodMojo]

Kudos to you for helping even more of our fellow citizens participate!

...never-t­he-less,

No Bush/McCain/Palin in '08!

[katersmc]

Here's to hoping your car breaks down..

[blckpnther20]

Oh yeah, so what is Governor Palin? Last time I checked she's a candidate part way into her first term.

WOW, the hypocrisy of the Right Wing is just so sickening!

[Bush 08]

good advice...
the alternative of course is to try and coerce the other side into not voting. because +1 pos vote = -1 neg vote... fear and disenfranchisement are the classic methods... "don't vote for x he/she is going to lose..."
or "vote for Y and you'll lose your home..."

[viewfromuphere]

I've been reading a lot of opinions, etc over the last couple of days...

is this really a surprise, that after the summer, after the convention, McCain is up a bit. And is it really Palin or just that Republicans, for whatever they think of McCain, have decided to hold their noses and vote for him, with Palin giving some "luster" to that choice for them...a reason to cheer.

I'm sorry but I think this election was always going to be close....t­hose Republicans who've been in power for a while now were not about to give up easily. And some of them might even be a bit worried about subpeonas. And Republicans get their vote out. They are good at it.

As to the media....t­hey've been reporting on the same candidates for almost two years now and I think they'be been suckered some by Palin...sh­e gives them something to talk about.

This is not to downplay the danger here but just ask ..... how bad is this really? And if it shakes up those who thought because Bush has been so bad, that the election was going to won in walk...wel­l so much the better.

[Blue42008]

To the woman above mad that it's Obama and not Hillary...­...were you voting for her only because of her, or did you believe in the issues we democrats want to see in force? Ok, it's a shame about Hillary, I wish she would have got her shot, but good grief, we have GOT to vote to get all the things that are important to her and this country in place--and that is through Obama. Get over the Hillary thing and just work to end this 8 year nightmare.

One more thing.....­I watched McCain's speech and though parts grinded on me, the vivid detailing of his horror as a POW did move me to tears. Though it is brought up A LOT, his is quite a story. If we were voting on "Greatest American Hero" McCain might get my vote. But NOT for President. And Palin, ok cute hockey mom/pit bull/lipstick joke. Quite a gal. Kind of loose with the facts, but ain't she fun? I have a question though....­if she is SO pro life how is it that she is able to lift a gun to blow the smithereens out of a moose, one of God's creatures lets not forget. As she supposedly said about that "Bridge to Nowhere" (after originally being for it) "No thanks" --right back at you sister. Here's hoping she has a long gig as the governor of Alaska.

[apexfork]

Because she views humans as different from, superior to, other life forms.

While she probably believes that because it's in the bible, it could be because it's just blindingly obvious.

[Treese]

You know, I started off giving Clinton and Obama equal time before I finally decided to go with Obama. As much as I have always liked Bill and Hillary Clinton, I felt that Hillary got a raw deal on the marriage end of things. My decision to go with Obama didn't really happen until the Clinton campaign turned ugy. I think that if Hillary had won the nomination­....sad but true....we would all be suffering right now through all of the bimboes that would come out of the woodwork who have been messing around with Bill since he left office. I still like the guy, and he was a very good president, but in spite of knowing that he was being investigated on every level and that his enemies were looking for him to make a misstep, he still took that grave risk in his activities withi Monica Lewinsky and others. As smart as he is, he was compelled to do it. So in spite of the very real devotion that I think he has to Hillary and to her career, Bill unfortunately was the unknown risk that many Dems just didn't want to deal with anymore. This is not fair to Hillary, but that's the way it is. Surely the Clintons and the Bushes are not the only two families in America!

[swift goat pet for truth]

Today I worked my first session as a volunteer in a political campaign, ever.

Palin may be smarter, tougher and certainly more ruthless than me.

I am fighting for my family. I will continue to do so until the election is over.
They have to take it from me.

[Anita-indep]

Me too! This si the first campaign that I have ever worked for and Im 53 years old. Due to my job and kids, I volunteer by phone....c­alling people in my own neighborhood [many of whom I know] and in swing states. At work, I talk to people about voting for Obama....i­n a nice way! I explain why I support him and I know I have converted at least 2 people! I encourage my college going daughter and my two teens to do volunteer work for the campaign..­.the teens will be posting signs in the neighborhood and making calls. AND I donate money!

This election is just toooo important to repeat mistakes of the past 8 years. If you REALLY care about your children and the future of this planet, please PLEASE volunteer. Make phone calls and reach out to people!

[svengalifx]

This is one big manipulated dust-up that is going to blow over.

Let's keep everything in perspective.

John Kerry received 59 million votes. Turnout will be greater by Democrats in 2008.

The Economy, The War, Women's rights all slant to the party not in power.

Creating a media event with a pro-life newbie is not going to gain any votes that Bush didn't already receive in 2004. It actually will have the opposite effect for fiscally responsible and socially moderate Republicans and Independents.

Let the circus come to town. Let the media hit their numbers.

And we'll all toast an Obama/Biden victory in November.

[KathyinBaltimore]

And in framing the issues as well as the choices, stay away from polarizing labels --- like right wing, left wing...con­servative, liberal --- and adopt a new and in my mind far more effective lexicon --- "mainstream," "extreme" --- to describe the candidates and their policies.