Frightened by McCain's Post-Convention Bounce? Three Things You Can Do Personally To Affect the Outcome of the Election

Over the last couple of days I've received more calls and emails than I can count from people with fear in their voices. They want to know what to make of McCain's post- convention bounce in the polls. They want to know if Obama can still win. Most of all they want to know what they can do to help.

McCain's post-convention bounce resulted from two factors:

First, was three days of the Republican Convention, during which large numbers of viewers watched Republicans and fellow travelers like Joe Lieberman repeatedly deliver a carefully crafted message. They blasted Obama. They postured about change. Their kids looked adorable. Subject anyone to largely one-sided messaging for a week and some will be convinced. Some of that will stick; much will disappear as memories of that experience fades.

Second - and more importantly - McCain's pick of Sarah Palin moved a lot of white women. The Washington Post poll released today showed white women shifting from an eight-point pre-convention lead for Obama to a 12-point McCain advantage.

What does this mean for the outcome of the race?

The race today is about even, with McCain having a slight advantage in the popular vote, and Obama having an advantage in electoral votes. The effect of exposure to the convention itself will likely diminish over the next several weeks. In 2004, Bush moved to a nine-point lead after his convention and most of that gap disappeared within a few weeks.

The long-term effect of the Palin factor is less certain. Much depends on what all of us choose to do now.

There are about ten likely electoral vote scenarios that could develop in this race. In eight of them, Obama is the winner. The underlying desire for change, and the overall disgust with the Bush-Republican administration of the last eight years, is just as real as ever. The website www.Fivethirtyeight.com employs a sophisticated projection model to predict electoral outcomes, and it still gives 61.2% odds that Obama will win in November.

But this week's polling numbers have certainly given a wakeup call to lots of Progressives who might have become complacent in their views that Obama's victory was a lock.

What did we think - that the gang who has run this country for the last eight years would simply roll over and surrender without a fight? These guys are very good at running elections and they will bite and claw and gouge eyes to win.

Luckily, we don't have to just sit by and watch from the sidelines, and hope that someone else makes the right call or runs the right TV spots.

There are three steps that every one of us can take that will actually impact directly the ultimate outcome of this race.

1). Remember that you are Obama's best campaign commercial. Obama made a good deal of progress at his own convention in convincing swing voters he is not just an agent for change, but a "safe" choice. But there are still a lot of voters who worry about Obama. They aren't really too worried if he is "experienced" enough (though they may say so). The movement of white women to Sarah Palin should put an end to any thought that "experience" is the main issue. They are worried if he will "safely be on their side."

The message that is most persuasive at convincing someone that Obama is "safely on their side" is having someone who is like them talk to them about why they support Obama - and why they are against McCain-Palin. "If Mary or Sarah likes Obama I guess he must be OK."

If you want to help win this election, it means you might have to break the "taboo's" about not talking about politics with your neighbor or your co-worker. It means you have to bring up the campaign over the lunch table or the backyard fence. It means you can't just go along when someone says something like "Palin is such a breath of fresh air." No, you must tell them, actually she's never been for "reform" and she embraces all of the economic policies that allow big companies to make tons of money while incomes of people like us fall.

Want to make calls to swing voters like you in swing states? The Obama campaign can hook you up with lists to call and get a report from you on the outcome through their website, www.MyBarackObama.com. And don't feel like the conversations you have are just a drop in the bucket. There will be hundreds of thousands of other volunteers around America who will be doing the same thing.

2). Don't unwittingly contribute to their narrative. Most swing voters aren't excessively focused on "experience." They think the gang with lots of experience has done a pretty crummy job, at least for them. They want someone who is "on their side." One reason that many white women like and identify with Palin - at least at first blush - is because they think she identifies with them.

When Progressives make "elitist" attacks on Palin, they just reinforce the right wing narrative that the "Elitist Eastern Establishment" is the problem. Don't patronize the very people we are trying to convince.

From most people's points of view, the problem with the McCain-Palin ticket isn't so much that Palin is from a small town in rural Alaska and hasn't got the experience to run the country. The arguement that is convincing to normal people is that neither McCain nor Palin are what they claim to be - reformers or agents of change. Their campaign is being run by lobbyists for the biggest corporate interests in America--the same people who ran the Bush campaign. And they are committed to the economic policies that make average people's incomes drop and reward the very rich.

McCain and Palin act as though they identify with the interests of the guys in the NASCAR grandstand and the women at the PTA - but they are doing the bidding of the guys from Wall Street and the women wearing $4,500 outfits like the one Cindy McCain donned for the Republican Convention.

Our assault on McCain and Palin must never be done from an elitist perspective, but from a populist perspective.

3). Take personal responsibility to win this election. More than any election in modern political history, this election will be decided by the work of millions of people who talk to their neighbors, make small donations on the internet and - most importantly - demand that every voter go out to vote.

And I mean demand that every voter go to the polls. To win, we need to change the electorate. In this election, friends don't let friends not vote. There is too much at stake. The damage of another four years of Bush-McCain economic and foreign policy would be catastrophic for the future of our children, and children all over the world.

The key point is this: don't just whine to your friends about what the campaign should do, or the party should do, or the candidate should do. Take personal responsibility to do the two things that will win: persuade swing voters, and mobilize voters who won't vote unless they are motivated to do so.

The Obama campaign has the best field operation in the history of presidential politics. Join it. Take an assignment. Make contributions on the Internet. Hold a fundraiser. Write a letter to the editor. Most important: don't sit on the sidelines.

The recent polls should provide a call to arms to everyone who wants change in America or believes in progressive values.

Don't think what you do is inconsequential or can't affect the outcome. My firm, the Strategic Consulting Group, ran the field operation for a wonderful congressional candidate in south Florida in 2000. We did a great job. We knocked on every door. We pulled out lots of votes. But we lost by 550 votes. It was the same 550 votes that beat Al Gore and gave us George Bush.

If we had just dragged out one more Democrat per precinct in the closing hours of that Election Day, America would have been spared the nightmare of the last eight years. Each of us could decide the outcome of this election, too.

In 2008, Progressives in America are presented with an unprecedented opportunity to fundamentally change the direction of American politics. As I argued in my book, Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, we could be on the verge of a new progressive era in America. If we win, progressives will be able to take the offensive and reshape the political and economic structures of our society for the first time in four decades. We can come out of our defensive crouch and help shape a democratic society infused with progressive values, with the fundamental principle that "we're all in this together" not "all in this alone."

But to have that opportunity we have to win - and winning requires that we all stand up now and take the future into our own hands. The game is on. Get out of the stands and onto the field, into the arena. The work we do over the next 56 days could be the most important that any of us will do in our lives. Let's not miss this precious opportunity to make history.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[barkanomics]

What about asking a McCain supporter, "Do you have health insurance?" If they do, "Do you have any friends or relatives who don't?" If they don't it's "Tough! Get a job!" from the Republicans. Obama has stated many tmes he's committed to providing health care to everybody. If you get, "HOw's he going to pay for it?" Say, "It's easy, tax the ultra rich and tax the corporatio­ns." If they say too bureaucratic, say is Medicare too bureaucratic? Just extend Medicare to everybody. Then buy them a beer and watch the game.....

[JHancock]

And don't forget it's McBush's health care plan to tax any health insurance benefit given by an employer.

[bish66]

Obama is not for health care for everybody. You are thinking Clinton. She had a universal health care plan. Obama has one for kids, adults can do what they want. The ones paying the bill of Obama's programs are going to be you and me. Either through higher taxes or through higher prices.

Taxing the ultra rich always sounds good and is a crowd pleaser. Never works, but sounds good.

[apexfork]

Most "real" voters aren't in the echo chamber of liberalism and so they don't automatically feel that "It's easy, just tax (other) people" is a viable or even moral solution.

Most real voters correctly hear that rationale as "just make someone else pay for it" and they see it for what it is: unfair to the other guy.

[doctordoubt]

In this time of enlightenment, the sad fact is that a great many older Americans, carry a built in prejudice. I had it growing up, my parents had it, and this is the hard line we are facing. Some of us got past it, but I have heard first hand from many people, baby boomers and older, that they could never vote for a black man. Bottom line. They didn't care how good or how smart of whatever. He's black. How sad is it that the usually smartest of us, are also the most inhibited when it comes to making a change in their own minds? The issues are all well and good, could mean we survive or not, but the age old prejudice is there. The only up side to that, is that we are dying off. The younger generation doesn't see color the same way, which finally, had to happen. I spoke with an older mantoday, who said he really liked what Obama had to say,loved Biden, but still.....­..........­.How sad.

[dagnew]

My very sentiments, exactly, and yes, it is very, very sad.

[catinca]

Sadly, it's not just older Americans. I wish each nationality was a different color it would be much harder to be prejudice.

[Rashnak]

By your reasoning anybody that votes against Palin hates women.

[apexfork]

That wasn't reasoning. It was feeling. Obama's counting on feelings.

[TenThings]

screw enlightenment, Obama is half white, is black, been called muslim, been called racist, preacher hated, and yet he beat Hillary Clinton and in a supposed tie with McCain.

I don't know where you are going with this reasoning, but it seems to not understand the other side has a very old man "agiesm" and a unskilled woman "sexism and affirmative action"

I'm really sorry for you, Hillary did not win, but she did say "why were you in it?"

[TenThings]

The way I see it, in physics, there is the" weak force" and the "strong force". Obama is the weak force, but in reality, Obama is the strongest force of all to be. Bare with me.

Only right now McCain/Palin appear to be the strong force. McCain introducing Palin to the race set off an explosion - a sort of kaboom!!! Palin's strong force explosion introduction to the race, but in reality, it does not go very far. Explosions do not resonate very far!! They stay where they are, and are in people face, until the dust settles.

The weak force, like Obama's campaign is more like an Atomic Explosion. Over 18 months it resonates further and further. Things get set into motion and really fly out. So really, Obama is the strongest force of all in an election. Look how his campaign has resonated in the nukes and crannies of the American landscape.

Do explosions like Palin, last two months? No....The dust will settle, soon, that is why they are keeping her away, to elongate the explosion but it won't work. Obama's weak force, is too strong. People need to appreciate this.

[bish66]

It is not "resonate" it is "radioacti­ve"...

McCain only does what Obama promised: Changing Washington. He picked Palin, a fresh face that wears lots of hats and effectively stole Obama's thunder.
Nominating Biden after weeks of artificial hype was the biggest mistake imaginable. A 30-years veteran of Washington is not 'change', it is not even 'status quo' it is 'leaps back'. So far, the grand Mr. Foreign Affairs is utterly useless.

And btw, the effects of an explosion may last more than two months. Palin is rationed right now, no interviews, no stories, no TV shows. Keeps her fresh and new, will make her appearances more valuable and sought after.

After weeks and months of despair, the conservative basis is experiencing a golden light of hope. House and Senate may be gone, but the White House is still possible. Who would have expected that 2 weeks ago? Who would have expected McCain to outperform Obama in the ratings game? Who would have thought that McCain would have the bigger bounce?

[TenThings]

Yes, agree the Palin explosion on the scene was radioactive.

Biden was a great choice that forced McCain to cave in and nominate Palin.

However Obama long term 18 month force, "resonated"

McCain's been in Washington for 28 years and changed nothing.

Obama has changed the Democratic party thus Washington, already.

As far as no stories, Palin is locked away unable to refute any of her endless bad stories. If she want to be rationed like a piece of meat, so be it.

[AmericanInLondon]

This is a great article. I live overseas and am trying to do my part as well. I'm getting involved with the local Democrats Abroad chapter, and plan to help out in voter registration drives targetted at other expats here (as well as the large number of American tourists who visit). I'm also planning to make a trip back home in October, and one of the things on my agenda is to visit a friend who lives in a swing state and spend a couple days there volunteering.

[BlueGrassMusic]

"The Obama campaign has the best field operation in the history of presidential politics."

Bob, have you been on the ground locally? Obviously not.

The Obama Field Organizers are very young but most are 20 years old working in areas they are not from and being supervised by an 22 year olds from out of state as well. These F/O's are working really hard but they are lacking guidance and direction. And unless you are part of the click, you are locked out - part of the "Obama Way." Their targeting for voter registration was horrible and the whole Fellows program implemented across the country was full of nothing but lost opportunities. And these F/O's are constantly being re-assigned to new areas.

The organization they are building is too de-centralized, is not being managed properly and they do not have the infrastructure to turn out the big vote they need on election day at this time.

Get out the vote is the most important moving forward but if you do not have an infrastructure to turn out the newly registered and those Dems that did not vote in '04, you are sunk.

I am not worried about the polls - I am worried about their field organization. And maybe you should be too.

[apexfork]

Well, he touted his campaign experience as indication of his executive ability. So I'm sure you have nothing to worry about.

[solid]

White man to white women: Get a grip! What is the matter with you all? Sarah Moose Palin is going to set you back 100 years.

Do not be fooled by her rimless glasses.

For those of you white women who recognize the mean-spirited and nasty nature of Sarah Palin, and the fact that she is still running with John flip flop McSame, congratulations.

[UC4006]

Why do Democrats call people names? can you answer that solid!

[Miande]

Of course your friend can't vote for Obama because of race; for white America, that is what this election is all about. If your friend has any semblance of integrity, perhaps you can get to acknolwedge her prejudice. Then she has to wrestle with it. Good luck!

[UC4006]

If it was Condolesa Rice , Colin Powell, or Bill Cosby they would have my vote....it is only a race issue to you Miada.

[solid]

Well, the first one is a pathological liar, the second one is a wimp for being used by Bushco, and the third one is simply a comedian. Sounds about like your average slice of Americana.

[3rdCitizen]

Sen. Obama, like all politicians, is fond of saying "I don't think the American voters are stupid." Well, I'm not a politician, and I do think that a slight majority of American voters are "a few stones shy of a load." That's the only way I can explain the 2 terms of George W. Bush (even allowing for Supreme Court shenanigans & questionable polling practices -- the fact is that based on the merits, neither of those elections should even have been close). Given the possibility that that most ignoble kind of stupidity may triumph once again & harm everything I hold most dear in this country, I can only try to outdo my efforts of 4 years ago. The only way I coped with that disaster was by knowing that I'd done everything in my power to avoid it.
Whether you believe that Obama offers real & positive change or just recognize that McCain/Palin represents a continuation of the worst policies we've experienced in living memory, please do something to make November 4th the day this madness ends.

[611Juniper]

This election will be won in the trenches, voter by voter, so this is a terrific post. Until the conventions and the VP choices, I was still undecided, but since then, I've decided that it's Obama - Biden! To support them I have (1) donated more money to the campaign, (2) starting reading/posting to blogs and am preparing a letter to the editor, and (3) prepared an information package for undecided friends and relatives, most of them upset Hillary supporters, to provide a more accurate picture of McCain - Palin than is provided by the main stream media.

For those who are looking for more ammunition in this battle, point out that if McCain wins, we'll continue to have divided government. Everyone will be able to blame someone else for policy failures.

With an Obama - Biden ticket, there will be no divided government. The Democrats will control the House (by a wide margin), the Senate, and most state governments. Because the Democrats are running on issues, not personalities, we will be able to hold them accountable for successes/failures.

The Republican Party, in turn, will be able to do what they do best (i.e., be the opposition). In the meantime, a loss this November should force them into rethinking what it means to be a Republican, developing policies that support that philosophy, and growing a leadership team to implement those policies.

I have to believe that this is the only rational strategy for the American voter.

[powkat]

I would love to discuss this with my co-workers. Unfortunately the Republican management where I work decreed that politics was 'too controversial' to discuss. I call BS and keep talking (the day after the decree I slapped an Obama sticker on my car) but people are afraid to respond.

[Sevensea]

The only benefit I can see arising from the McCain bounce is that at last we're breaking through the self-delusion that is inherent in many Democrats.
However, I still see many posts saying "Things are OK, we're ahead in the electoral college".

Oh, how such self-delusion makes me despair! Many of the state polls are WEEKS out of date, eventually the electoral map WILL reflect the national polls.

The other delusion is that the Dems will inevitably rescue things in the debates, especially when Biden faces Palin.

My prediction - Biden will put forward well-considered views, Palin will spout meaningless soundbites about pride in her country and flag. The media will say Biden won but the public will think Palin did.

[marykins123]

WOW this white granny of 3 cannot believe that so many "white" women over this nation could be fooled!! Have any bothered to find out what a Gov. Sarah Palin would really stand for? My guess is that they have not......g­et real ladies

[schers25]

For the first time in my life I am a minority..­. I am a white male that supports Obama.

The real problem is that 65% of white males support McCain and Palin... it makes me ashamed (more than usual) to be a white male.

[UC4006]

Not me......I am a white male voting for McCain....­.......and I am happy.

[UC4006]

Why don't you explain to me what she stands for marykins12­3.......go ahead sway my vote from McCain.

[PackyJ]

1. No abortions, even in cases of rape and incest.
2. "Abstinence only" sex education (which worked real well with her own child)
3. Is against earmarks, but only after she was for them (like the bridge to nowhere), and only after collected many from Ted Stevens and Don Young.
4. Believes than humans have nothing to do with global climate change.
5. Believes that "economical factors" should have been part of the equation when polar bears were determined to be "threatened" under the Endangered Species act.
6. Believes that the last eight years under the Bush administration were great for America.
7. Believes that we can "cure" gay people by praying for them.
8. Believes that the Iraq war is a "mission from God."
9. Believes it's perfectly okay to abuse political power by carrying out vendettas against those who either believe differently than she, or have the temerity to engage in sin (unless it's anyone in her family).
10. Until picked for McCain's VP, by her own admission, had no interest in the Iraq war or any other foreign policy issue.
11. As of yesterday, STILL didn't know what Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac are.
12. Believes that it's perfectly OK to repeatedly lie to further her own political career (see number 3 above).
I can go on, but I won't. I know it's not going to change your mind... it's made up, and you don't wish to be confused by facts.

[Midwestbob]

Marykins123 your right but it's really what Palin doesn't stand for. She doesn't stand for women to have any choice with their reproductive rights or for equal pay for women as well as putting lesbians in second class status and this is just the beginning. The thing that is really bothering me about white women is how pathetic they are at their reasoning for supporting Palin. I mean she has not said ONE word that shows any support for what many women consider important. I am becoming increasingly disappointed by white women in this country and just can't believe they would vote for someone because of their genitalia. Palin is not scary because she is a strong intelligent women like what some women are saying, she is scary because she is a women with EXTREME right wing christian views that are just plain out of touch with anyone who has common sense. Just like Bush who thought he was chosen by God to do his will, Palin would do the same. We don't need any more religious nut cases in the white house asking God what to do! We need intelligent people who use common sense and their understanding of the complex situations and what the ramifications would be of their actions to run this country. Please, women, take a minute and look at this very hard. You are making a seriously wrong and dangerous decision by supporting Palin and McCain.

[BillyT]

Small ex-donors for Obama:

YOU NEED TO BE CONTINUOUS DONORS. $10, $20, or $1000 like me last evening: another round of whatever you can right now is needed.

Breaking the 2-million donor mark is great, but where are you now that McCain's RNC money and big business money are still pouring in?

Can't sit on your laurels of having donated before. You need to keep giving. You wanted your man in the White House to be a clean candidate, to say no to the 527s and the lobbyists: and he has done that. But that means he is counting on YOU ALONE TO DONATE. Now put your money where your mouth is.

[BigLib]

and don't forget to call her an "inauthentic woman" at every chance

make fun of her stay at home husband (even though he works)

smear her seventeen year old daughter and infant son with Down Syndrome in every Leftist blog you read and comment on

[dmac]

Carry voter registration information with you.

Calmly explain the differences in the parties' stances on issues you know will be important to the person you're speaking to. I work in a very conservative office....­with women who had no idea about the McCain-Palin stance on Roe v Wade (or much else, for that matter). Today makes the 4th woman who basically said "you had me at Roe v Wade". Most people don't pay attention.

I generally say that I don't pay a lot of attention to the candidates' specific plans, as the makeup of Congress, budgets, and what nots will all impact what actually happens. I pay attention to their priorities; are they the same as mine? Then back up a litany of each's priorities with just enough info to show I know whereof I speak. Don't blind them with science. The low-information voter gets turned off.

Grassroots. Go for it.

[julica]

Couldn't agree more. I wrote ten letters for the Obama campaign today, and my pledge is to do SOMETHING--write, talk, donate, register--every day until November. We can't let this one get away.

[Nicher]

IN the Chicago area, I will be slashing as many Republican's tires as possible. Also. I have been visiting graveyards to register as many poor departed souls as possible. This election is far too important to leave to chance. We must win this thing using all necessary means...Wo­o Messiah!! You go, King!!