In recent American politics, every major shift in political momentum has resulted from an iconic battle.
In 1995 the tide of the 1994 "Republican Revolution" was reversed when Speaker Newt Gingrich and his new Republican House majority shut down the government in a battle over their attempts to cut Medicare to give tax breaks to the rich (sound familiar?). The shutdown ended with -- what pundits universally scored -- as a victory for President Clinton. That legislative victory began Clinton's march to overwhelming re-election victory in 1996.
In 2010, Democrats passed President Obama's landmark health care reform. But they lost the battle for public opinion -- and base motivation. That turned the political tide that had propelled President Obama to victory in 2008 and ultimately led to the drubbing Democrats took in the 2010 midterms.
The Republican leadership's collapse in the battle over extending the payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits could also be a turning point moment that shifts the political momentum just as we enter the pivotal 2012 election year.
Here's why:
1) Since the president launched his campaign for the American Jobs Act, he has driven Congressional Republicans into a political box canyon with very few avenues of escape. The jobs campaign has made it clearer and clearer to the voters that the "do nothing Republican Congress" bears responsibility for preventing the President from taking steps that would create jobs.
Until the payroll tax/unemployment victory, the president had failed to persuade the Republican dominated Congress to pass any provision of the bill -- save one aimed at helping veterans. But the polling shows that the public has become more and more disgusted by Congressional intransigence. Since 64% of Americans believe that Congress is run entirely by the Republicans (and from the stand point of stopping legislation it is managed entirely by Republicans), the overall unhappiness with Congress has translated into distain for the "do nothing Republican Congress."
Congress now has lower approval ratings (11% in the latest poll) than at any time in modern history. Senator Michael Bennett presented data on the Senate floor that showed that Congress is less popular than BP during the gulf oil spill. It is way less popular than Nixon during Watergate. About the same number of Americans have a positive view of Congress as support America becoming a Communist nation. That makes it the worst time imaginable for House Republicans to throw a political tantrum that threatened to increase the tax burden of everyday Americans by $40 per paycheck -- $1,000 next year -- right after Christmas.
Last weekend, the Senate Republican Leader thought he had blazed a path for Republicans that led out of that political box canyon -- at least in so far as the extension of the payroll tax holiday and unemployment. The bipartisan agreement to temporarily extend the payroll tax holiday and unemployment insurance seemed to give Republicans a face saving option that -- at least temporarily -- took them off the political hook. But Tea Party stalwarts in the House threatened to mutiny if Boehner went along -- and all week -- there the House Republicans sat, at the bottom of that canyon with no escape.
House Republicans bet that the president and Democrats were desperate enough to extend the payroll tax and unemployment that they could hold those provisions hostage the way they had held hostage the debt ceiling in August. In an act of unfathomable political ineptitude, they failed to appreciate that this time, Democrats occupied vastly higher political ground.
Failure to continue the payroll tax holiday would have immediately decreased the take home pay of 160 million Americans. By refusing to agree to the compromise that had passed the Senate with an overwhelming bipartisan majority, House Republicans made it certain that they would have been held responsible.
They might as well have hung out a huge flashing sign in Times Square that said: "Republicans are responsible for cutting your take home pay and eliminating your unemployment benefits."
Even the conservative editorial page of the Wall Street Journal called on them to throw in the towel.
Democrats had every incentive to hang tough. In the end by refusing to take the escape hatch opened for them by McConnell, the nation watched House Republicans dragged kicking and screaming to support the president's popular payroll and unemployment extensions.
The outcome of the battle was unambiguous. No one could doubt who stood up for the economic interests of the middle class and who did not. And no one could doubt who won and who lost.
National Journal reported that, "House Republicans on Thursday crumpled under the weight of White House and public pressure and have agreed to pass a two-month extension of the two percent payroll-tax cut, Republican and Democratic sources told National Journal."
In the end, Republican intransigence transformed a moment that would have been a modest win for President Obama into an iconic victory.
2) Strength and victory are enormous political assets. Going into the New Year, they now belong to the president and the Democrats.
One of the reasons why the debt ceiling battle inflicted political damage on President Obama is that it made him appear ineffectual -- a powerful figure who had been ensnared and held hostage by the Lilliputian pettiness of hundreds of swarming Tea Party ideological zealots.
In the last few months -- as he campaigned for the American Jobs Act -- he has shaken free of those bonds. Now voters have just watched James Bond or Indiana Jones escape and turn the tables on his adversary.
Great stories are about a protagonist who meets and overcomes a challenge and is victorious. The capitulation of the House Tea Party Republicans is so important because it feels like the beginning of that kind of heroic narrative.
Even today most Americans believe that George Bush and the big Wall Street banks -- not by President Obama -- caused the economic crisis. Swing voters have never lost their fondness for the President and don't doubt his sincerity. But they had begun to doubt his effectiveness. They have had increasing doubts that Obama was up to the challenge of leading them back to economic prosperity.
The narrative set in motion by the events of the last several weeks could be a turning point in voter perception. It could well begin to convince skeptical voters that Obama is precisely the kind of leader they thought he was back in 2008 -- a guy with the ability to lead them out of adversity -- a leader with the strength, patience, skill, will and resoluteness to lead them to victory.
That now contrasts with the sheer political incompetence of the House Republican leadership that allowed themselves to be cornered and now find themselves in political disarray. And it certainly contrasts with the political circus we have been watching in the Republican Presidential primary campaign.
3) This victory will inspire the dispirited Democratic base.
Inspiration is the feeling of empowerment -- the feeling that you are part of something larger than yourself and can personally play a significant role in achieving that goal. It comes from feeling that together you can overcome challenges and win.
Nothing will do more to inspire committed Democrats than the sight of their leader -- President Obama -- out-maneuvering the House Republicans and forcing them into complete capitulation.
The events of the last several weeks will send a jolt of electricity through the progressive community.
The right is counting on progressives to be demoralized and dispirited in the coming election. The president's victory on the payroll tax and unemployment will make it ever more likely that they will be wrong.
4) When you have them on the run, that's the time to chase them.
The most important thing about the outcome of the battle over the payroll tax and unemployment is that it shifts the political momentum at a critical time. Momentum is an independent variable in any competitive activity -- including politics.
In a football or basketball game you can feel the momentum shift. The tide of battle is all about momentum. The same is true in politics. And in politics it is even more important because the "spectators" are also the players -- the voters.
People follow -- and vote -- for winners. The bandwagon effect is enormously important in political decision-making. Human beings like to travel in packs. They like to be at the center of the mainstream. Momentum shifts affect their perceptions of the mainstream.
For the last two years, the right wing has been on the offensive. Its Tea Party shock troops took the battle to Democratic members of Congress. In the mid-terms Democrats were routed in district after district.
Now the tide has turned. And when the tide turns -- when you have them on the run -- that's the time to chase them.
We won't know for sure until next November whether this moment will take on the same iconic importance as Clinton's battle with Gingrich in 1995. But there is no doubt that the political wind has shifted. It's up to progressives to make the most of it.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com. He is a partner in Democracy Partners and a Senior Strategist for Americans United for Change. Follow him on Twitter @rbcreamer.
Follow Robert Creamer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/rbcreamer
Over the last three years, my support for President Obama has not diminished, but my belief in his ability and willingness to stand up to these republican reprobates has wavered. He has always appeared far too conciliatory, much too "patient", and has allowed himself to be pushed around by these schoolyard bullies.
While I believe that, in the beginning, it was imperative for the President to stake his claim to high ground, and show a willingness to compromise and negotiate with the repubs, I think he went too far trying to be the Nice Guy.
I came to think Obama's strategy was to give these republicans 50,000 miles of rope, and eventually they would hang themselves on it. Well, that seems to be happening now. Just in time for Christmas, the repubs have used up all the slack, and now the President is snapping the line taught, and lashing it down to a sturdy cleat.
Here's hoping he doesn't give them one more inch!
I firmly believe that Barack Obama can go down in history as one of our most admired and effective presidents, if he will show courage, will, and strength, to stand up to these republican vandals of the common good. I think there are a majority of us who have his back, and will stand with him if he shows the fortitude and resolve to fight for all of us.
So you can just STOP IT>
And also the one that gives me the most pause.
Democrats have been terrible at controlling the message.
Terrible.
Time to get out there and PROMOTE the good things done so far by the administration, and the many things planned to be done.
Compare that list to the GOP regressive list of goals.
Now we have something to get excited about for 2012.
Just you know why
Why you and I
Will by and by
Know true love ways
Throughout the days
Our true love ways
Will bring us joys to share
With those who really care
its because every single one of Obama proposals has been warped beyond recognition by the Republicans.
the US has never been able to try Obama's solutions...
simply because the Repugs use their power to obstruct and prevent the reelection of the President.
and that's ALL they've done in 2011.
America is DONE with them! OUT with them!
And let's hope they stay at the bottom of the canyon long enough to turn on each other.
Obama promised in the DEBT debate SSA would be on the table
He and the Democrats and the Republicans put it on the table. SSA is now an Entitlement
And you swallow the whole 9 yards. HOPE YOU DON'T GAG ON ITS. But you can simply change the subject now can't you. The power of the PEN, the evil pen
and I still have not figured out why. When I ask my peers who have early 20's children if they would like to lose their child's health insurance on their plan, they adamantly say "NO", but then I ask them if they like the Affordable Health Care Act and they also say "NO" like they don't know that they are only able to have their children on their medical insurance because of the plan.
I think the affordable health care plan is unpopular because no one has taken the time to explain it to people. Oh yes, VP Biden might answer a few questions about it on a news show but no one has taken the time to outline why it is good for the American people. In this case , the Obama administration should take a clue from the Reagan administration - communication at a simple level is needed for people to understand.
Yeah, I'm sure everyone loves having their 26 year olds still leeching off of them.
if you have a problem with it, pick up the phone and call each and every obstructionist repug and tell them to pass the jobs bill, close tax loopholes for corporations who outsource jobs, and tell them to work on helping the middle class, instead of working to disenfranchise them
Does that preclude them from wanting their kids to have access to medical care???
The plan is working. The GOP dislikes it because Big Pharma and Insurance does not want to lose one nickel of profit.
Too Bad.
Bottom line: "The jobs campaign has made it clearer and clearer to the voters that the "do nothing Republican Congress" bears responsibility for preventing the President from taking steps that would create jobs."
Keep them on the run!
Bu to ignore the last 3 presidents before GWB raised taxes in recession and stopped recession. Is pure ignornace of history and what is need to Raise Wages and Jobs.
But that is not the 2 party object. Just don't keep trying to tell me ONE MORE TAX CUT, just might work.
Shrinking the goverment by cutting revenue be it Treasury or SSA Trust and increasing spending is creating the DEBT the 2 party system bitched about last year
What they will never do
Is Tax the Rich creating a Clinton fair tax
Is create a fair wage for the worker
But do all the people have to swallow it all the time
You are stung. LOL
Republicans like 90% of the fruit of labor not 7% it use to be. And you think 0.000006% will make a difference. Your tax increases, cost of living, lower wages is in double didgets. Multiply 400,000 a week X 4 (monthly) X 12 (yearly) X 3 (years) AND you have 36% of the whole work force out of work or changing JOBS.
Prices are raising while demand is STAGNET, buddy. WHY? Because demand is gone verticle and is no longer horizontal. The pubic will buy all they can get and have to spend. The price does not matter, it is inflexible downward.. As the repubicans cut the supply (Cecil Rhodes "blood diamond" theory) and make MORE and MORE like Debeers Diamond Industry
Is it not lovely. Poetry in motione
Shout 'obstructionists' from the rooftops.
Use every republican blockade as campaign talking points.
Let people hear clearly, over and over again, exactly who is the friend of the rich instead of the masses.
And your Obama promised he would put SSA on the Table
He has, and you want them to stop.
Repubicans just gave Obama an excuse to take your SSA away or make you work Longer and get less.
Neither Republicans or Obama thought you were that cheep. But workers prove as greedy for $1000 a year as a Republican Stock Trader or Politicians is for $million.
SAD, but true