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Last Night Clinton Won the Pennsylvania Primary, but Lost the War for the Nomination
Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results
The Pennsylvania Primary was Hillary Clinton's last chance to deliver a game changing blow to Obama's campaign for the nomination. She failed to deliver.
Pennsylvania provided her with her final real opportunity to knock the wheels off the Obama campaign. She needed a crushing victory of 18% to 25% to have any real chance of altering the math or the psychology. Demographically, Pennsylvania was made for Hillary: the second oldest state in the nation, heavily blue collar, Catholic and rural -- Hillary's voter profile. She started with a lead of almost 20 points. But her final margin -- which the Pennsylvania Secretary of State says was only 9.2% -- fell far short of what was needed to stop Obama's nomination. Here's why:
1). Pledged Delegates. By CNN's count, Clinton netted about 14 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That still leaves Obama up by 151 pledged delegates. It is likely that after Guam, Indiana and North Carolina, there will be no net change in pledged delegates, even if Clinton wins Indiana, since Obama will certainly pick up delegates in North Carolina. But at that point only 251 pledged delegates will remain to be chosen.
Even if she got 80% of all of the pledged delegates that remain after Indiana, she would still trail Obama at the end of the day.
The battle for the pledged delegate advantage is over.
2). Popular Vote. Pennsylvania was her best opportunity to really close in on Obama's popular vote lead. She picked up about 216,000 net votes. But that still leaves her over 600,000 votes behind, and Obama will likely increase his popular vote margin further after the contests on May 6th. Her failure to blow Obama out in Pennsylvania makes it almost impossible for her to close the popular vote gap.
3). Electability. Clinton's entire strategy rests on the premise that she can convince Super Delegates that Obama is unelectable. Only a massive win in Pennsylvania would have credibly made that case. Clinton's victory did little to enhance her argument.
Regardless of the passions of the moment, history shows us that just because voters prefer one candidate in the primary, it doesn't mean they won't vote for her Democratic opponent in a general election when the choice is a Republican. When all is said and done, primary voters almost always vote for the candidate of their party in a general election - regardless of what they might say (on either side) in the middle of a primary fight.
In fact, the people who decide general elections rarely set foot in primary voting booths. They are the independent voters who vote only in general elections and unengaged voters who are would vote Democratic, but have to be mobilized to go to the polls.
The fact is that to whatever degree Hillary might have more appeal among independent rural and blue collar voters, Obama more than makes up in additional appeal to independent suburban voters. Obama's ability to mobilize new young and African American voters in the general election is indisputably greater than Clinton's.
And of course, Obama will not go into the General Election burdened by the towering Clinton negatives that her own negative campaign strategy increases daily.
The polls, and even Pennsylvania Governor and Clinton supporter Ed Rendell, make it clear that Obama can win Pennsylvania in the general election. But Obama can also broaden the playing field with a shot at winning states like Colorado and Virginia.
4). Super Delegates. Finally is a fact that is generally overlooked by pundits. At the close of the primaries, Obama will not need a stampede of Super Delegates to clinch the nomination. In fact he will only need about 40% of those that remain today.
Let's make the most conservative assumptions about the outcome of the remaining races: Guam, even; North Carolina, 58%-42% Obama; Indiana, 54%-46% Clinton; Kentucky, 60%-40% Clinton; West Virginia, 60%-40% Clinton; Oregon, 56%-44% Obama, Montana 56%-44% Obama; Puerto Rico, 60%-40% Clinton. That would leave Obama at 1,846 delegates at the close of the Primaries.
He would need only 41% of the Super Delegates remaining today to clinch the nomination with 2,025. And let's remember, he has picked up almost one Super Delegate a day for the last month. There is no reason to believe he won't keep picking up Super Delegates as the contest continues. So by the end of the primaries he will need an even lower percentage of the Super Delegates that remain.
All that remains for Clinton are more opportunities for her own campaign to be shut down. If she loses Indiana and North Carolina it will be extremely hard for her to continue. But there is no longer any opportunity for her to defeat Obama.
Clinton's may have won last night, but she failed to do what she needed to do to derail Obama's march to the nomination. In retrospect, Pennsylvania will appear as Clinton's Waterloo.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book, "Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com
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The tide is high but I'm holding on
I'm gonna be your number one
I'm not the kind of girl who gives up just like that
Oh, no
It's not the things you do that tease and wound me bad
But it's the way you do the things you do to me
I'm not the kind of girl who gives up just like that
Oh, no
The tide is high but I'm holding on
I'm gonna be your number one
Number one, number one
Once again, Hillary wins by suspicious means. I have read many accounts of the people from PA who said much different from the results. That just goes to show that the people were once again set up by the machines just like in New Hampshire when the votes for Obama were given to Hillary and Hillary's votes were recorded for Obama. The BIG SWITCHEROO programmed in the machines.
If we don't stop using these machines, we will NEVER have a legal election again. We haven't had one for over 20 years since Bush Sr. brought in the machines. That's why we have the BUSH/CLINTON dynasty right now and it will continue if we don't do something.
I am so tired odf Hill and Bill, I wish she would drop the negativity and hit above the belt or leave the race so we as a party can concentrate on Sen. Mcain and all of his gaffes and contradictions. Hill is dong more harm than good and in the meantime the old man is getting away with everything because MSM is focusing on the dems more so on Obama than Hill because they know Mcain can`t beat Obama . This has to stop before it destroys the party and Mcain waltz`s into the W.H.
I'll admit that I support Obama.
I'll admit I find Clintons' (plural) despicable.
But here's my vow: If she somehow "wins" the nomination, I WILL VOTE FOR HER IN NOVEMBER.
How about you Clinton people?
If Hillary and Bill were somehow to strongarm, putting it politely, enough super delegates to crown her the nominee. She would lose the election, big time.. All the lower income voters she now claims, will ultimately vote for McCain anyway, and the African Americans will just stay home, as will I.
I hear young people talking about a revolution if Hillary is "given" the nomination. I truly hope it doesn't come to that. But, I simply won't vote.
Robert -
When we factor in Operation Chaos along with voter suppression in PA, Mrs. Clinton's win there looks even less convincing than you painted it. I hope Democrats will consider....
1. Operation Chaos voters switched to the Democratic Party and voted for Hillary in an effort to prolong Democratic agony, keep the attention off McCain as long as possible and let us know Hillary is the candidate they prefer to see McCain run against in November. Operation Chaos voters will be voting for McCain (or maybe Bob Barr if he decides to run) in November, not Mrs. Clinton.
2. My husband mailed his voter registration in a week before it was due. He never got his voter regsitration card. When he called the voter registration office the day before the election he was told he would have to vote in his former party (not true). When he showed up to the poling place they refused to let him vote in his new party, refused to consult a supplemental list and refused him a provisional ballot.
He was told by the judge of elections "Norristown told me not to hand out any provisional ballots." I returned with him to the polling place carrying our video cam. Another call was allegedly made and my husband was allowed to cast a provisional ballot. Hopefully it gets counted.
The deck in PA was stacked in Hillary's favor and the fact that she didn't do better here tells me she is in big trouble.
It is time for Obama to go on the attack against McRove and the right-wingers. Stop campaigning against the great American divider and start campaigning against McBush. Why mess around with Hillary any longer. Let her continue her selfish, divisive tactics. She is obviously too selfish to understand what "It's Over" means. It is going to take a back-room deal to hand the nomination to her and if that happens the repercussions will hand the presidency to McCheney anyway. It has become very obvious who the Republicans DO NOT want to run against. I haven't seen a McRumsfeld comment yet that is aimed at Hillary.
There you go. I wonder how many others have noticed that. Not one word against Hillary from McCain. Wow! That is crucial.
And to make it even worse, now Obama has to fight Hillary and McCain at the same time just like when Hillary and Bill ganged up on him. Now he's fighting all three (3) of them with no help whatsoever. Not even the media. So, I guess when you add the Media. It's 4 against 1. This is an issue that shows biased against Obama and for Hillary and IT IS NOT FAIR!
Do the math! Obama's already won. . .
Quit this cowardly hesitating. . .and get with the program.
All that is at stake is the fate of this country!
Great analysis. Certainly warmed my heart. In the November elections my preference is Obama. But I'll vote for the democrate. My preference for Obama is it is time for a generational change. Likewise, I believe that Hillary, with Bill lurking, will be vengeful of democrats that didn't support her. We are focused on fear and not on the message of hope. Any President will not hesitate to utilize the dogs of war. But, there has to be some critical thinking before you pull the trigger. The invasion of Iraq because of WMD based on spinning the Intelligence. It warms the cockels of my heart to think that Mr. Obama has a chance. This is from a VEV.
Just a thought. I realize that it is mathematically impossible for Hillary to gain the lead in pledged delegates, but isn't it also true that neither of them can win enough delegates to get the nomination outright. He can get MORE delegates but not enough, and neither can she. That's why all the fuss about the super delegates.
So what is wrong with going to the convention, and deciding on a candidate then? If they want to keep campaigning let them. I just wish they would conduct a more positive campaign based on their records and what they will do once elected. They need to lay off the politics of destruction now, and think of the REAL enemy: the Bush-McCain doctrine.
Give peace a chance!
I agree. There is no math because neither of them can reach the magic number. At the convention, based on the winner-take-all rule in the November election, the super delegates must analyze results by looking at who won where.
The Super-Ds should go with the candidate who has the MAJORITY of votes.
If I were a pledged delegate, I would NOT switch my vote from Obama to the Clintons. I am sick to death of their divisiveness. So sick, in fact, that when I see a picture of Hillary, I am physically repulsed.
(I used to be the biggest Clinton fan - I voted for him twice.)
Your not thinking straight. You fail to realize that campaigning is tough 14+ hr days 7 days a week. If they continue to battle into the convention in August that would give the nominee only 2 months to define McCain, who we must remember is getting away with everything while we are bickering. I agree the supers will have to choose and i also agree that in some ways the choice is theirs, but waiting until the convention would be a mistake. They should make there decisions a week or 2 after the finally primary in June That way the nominy can get some rest and come at McCain 100%
you are such a bull dog liar. you are so disgusting. you and your husband think you are all that and have disappointed me so much. i lost freinds over the years because i supported you and defended you both and now i find out that they were right. you're an embarrassment to women. you are an embarrasssment to this country that we can't find anymore leadership candidates than a lying, cheating, narcissistic woman. shame for us; shame on you.
You talking to me? Oh, were you expecting Hillary to respond?
She won by interjecting race in the the mix - she disgusting, she's a liar, she and Bill Clinton are liars, she lied about the sniper fire and he lied about Monica Lewinsky - now they want to divide the country based on race - this is the ultimate disgrace for the democratic party -
No one's ever accused me of being the sharpest tack in the pack, but I just now made the connection that the reason why Hillary didn't divorce Bill a long time ago because it would have nuked her chance to be president.
But the thing that REALLY kicks my butt is that the Clintons seem willing to start a civil war in the party so that Hillary can have this nomination. She has lost all credibility in my eyes. Not that she ever had much... any idiot realizes that Hillary Clinton has been a liability to the party for a long time. And now she has got Talk Radio Republicans like Limbaugh and miscellaneous wing-nuts like Coulter endorsing her?!?! Does anyone in the Clinton camp ask themselves why Republicans are so eager to prop her up now? So they can knock her down with a vengeance later?!
Get a clue, Clinton camp!!
Dems voting for McCain over Obama? Well, I hate to bring this up, but the same sort of people who refuse to vote for Obama aren't going to vote for Hillary, either.
How could I, as a passionate liberal, cast a vote for Duke Nukem McCain? Personally, if Hillary is nominated, I'm sitting out the November election. I'm so sick and tired of voting for "the lesser of two evils." If we nominate Hillary's "same old same old" instead of Obama, the candidate with a humane, decent, compelling vision for America, we deserve to lose--again--in November.
Signed,
BlueSkye
Beleagured liberal in Greenville, SC
I don't see how she lost the bid for the nomination.??? If you look at the facts Those battleground states Richardson said Obama won..Colorado,Kansas, Iowa.....pleezze..those were caucuses...and all the citizens don't vote in caucuses, just party members and supporters...so that is maybe 300 votes instead of millions of votes...The only battleground state he won was Missouri..Hillary won all the battleground swing states...and all the big states...the only reason he is still in it is because they hae the delegates set up by congressional areas..When it comes to beating McCain inthe real election....you want someone who can actually pull the peoples vote...not just congressional buddies. If the DNC looks at this they would be committing suicide to give it to Obama...we would have abnother republican in the whitehouse. Obama has pulled little states...and the ones normally won by republicans....ones he will never win against McCain...like Va,Delaware, Georgia,South Carolina...it's a complete risk and maybe suicide tohave him as the nominee...
It's really a mixed bag. Obama does far better in the Mountain West than Clinton. With Obama as the nominee, Colorado is certainly within reach (but this would not be a pick up with Clinton on the ballot). He also does much better in head to head polls against McCain than Clinton in Minnesota:
Rasmussen: President, Senate. 4/22. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/19 results)
McCain (R) 38 (43)
Obama (D) 52 (47)
McCain (R) 42 (47)
Clinton (D) 47 (46)
Obama also does well in another key swing state, Wisconsin, winnning it handily.
In New Mexico, which technically had a caucus, but was actually much more like a primary, Clinton edged out Obama by a mere 1700 votes. This indicates that either candidate could win the state in a general election.
Obama also does very well in Washington and Oregon, and puts those in play, but they would be much harder pickups for Clinton. His victory in Virginia also puts that state within Democratic reach, where with Clinton at the head of the ticket would not pick up Virginia. Sound like crazy talk? Not really. Remember that VA recently elected both Democratic governor and senator.
Where Clinton has advantages over Obama, would be the key delegate heavy swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which are certainly all very important states. But overall, Obama puts more swing states in play.
I honestly think either of them can beat McCain in the general.
spin
WOW you are sooooo clever!
Yep, IL, TX, VA, WI, MN, MO....they're such itty bitty wittle states.
That reminds me. Time to donate my weekly $25.00 to soon to be President Obama.
Thank you very much Mr. Creamer for giving the honest results of 9.2% instead of the 10% I've been hearing on my TV all week long. Bravo Creamer!
Does a 9.2% loss make you feel better?
well they never expected to win anyway....even with a 3-1 spending ratio.
Yes, because then chuckleheads can't go around blathering that "Clinton won by double digits!" as they have been doing.
If you read (and understood) Creamer's article, you'd know that even 10% is at least 8% less than Clinton needed to alter Obama's easy ride to the nomination.
To recap: Clinton needed at least an 18% margin of victory and actually got only slightly better than half that amount, 9.2%.
Obama will win the nomination.
When the clinton's are gone, this country will a better place to live and they can take McCain with them.
yes 'ignorant' is a crucial part of you name.
The Clinton's have devoted their whole lives to politics. I bet you don't do more than vote when it suits you. That is not a reason to vote for them, but at least show some respect.
The Clintons have dedicated their whole lives to politics? Check our Hillary's real resume (on Wikipedia).
Right now, the Clintons have put their own narcissistic interests ahead of the country's interests.
The Daily Show - Jon Stewart on Hillary's assertion that "The Tide Is Turning"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DJjp9Bi3f0
I loved this.
As usual, Jon Stewart nails it. Thanks for posting!
Sometimes I ask myself "why do I bother reading the comments???" And then I come across a link to a video that really sums the whole thing up. Thanks for posting this!
Clinton is NOT ahead in popular votes!!! This is one more piece of manipulation she is using to sway voters and superdelegates.
Clinton is LYING through her teeth and the constant nodding of her head up and down indicates she agrees with every word SHE says. Ludicrous! Remember NAFTA, Columbia, Bosnia, Ireland, Health Care, Kosovo, BILL! Do you really want BILL in the White House again, this time as Co-President just lurking about trying to find new aides to court????? I think not!
In addition, as of yesterday I am boycotting Morning Joe, ABC News Network and Cable, and Fox News Network and Cable News. These people have delivered the most biased news I have seen in decades. They salivate over the minutest detail, and show just how irresponsible journalism can be when placed in the hands of bigots, racists, and immoral individuals.
Good. Why don't you take your marbles, go home and sit in a corner and cry. Do you really think any of those shows really give a rat's patoot if you don't watch?--Especially Morning Joe. They just figure that you're probably watching all the OTHER blatantly Pro-Obama/anti-Hillary biased shows on their MSNBC so-called "news" network, like Olbermann and Matthews, anyway. You, like all the other rabid Obamabots who blog here should be ashamed of yourselves for the vicious language you use against your fellow Democrats. Oh I'm sorry--I guess I shouldn't make the assumption that you're a Democrat. It's funny though to see you gripe about Hillary supposedly "manipulating" people, when it's so clearly obvious that you've allowed yourself to be manipulated big time by other forces.
Calling folks rabid Obamabots doesn't really help your cause.
And seriously, it's past gut check time for Hillary's campaign. Creamer is right, Hillary can't win this, not by any measure. The rest of the primaries will not add or subtract significantly from either candidates pledged delegate totals, which leaves Obama in the lead by about 150, and Obama has steadily been gaining on Clinton's superdelegate lead while hers has hardly changed (233, Obama to 256, Clinton).
By going negative on Obama Hillary's campaign is just damaging the presumptive nominee for November, which only helps the the Republicans. Of course you should still vote for whomever you prefer (that's what primaries are about), but there's also not much point to keeping this going this long. Now that the Clinton campaign is convinced that the negative campaigning works, it looks like more of the same.
Oh, well, it will all be over, I hope, by June 2nd.
The networks and their sponsors care a great deal if large numbers do not watch.
It would be great to focus on certain shows or networks, and tune out for a day, a few days, a week.
Let the sponsors know why you are choosing to turn off their shows.
Money matters to corporate.
The Hillary hype that hopes to dictate another Democratic nominee, this year, is attempting to take away the enthusiasm from voting or caring about real issues.
Since Hillary's record hasn't been so great, it is much easier to falsely slime your opponent.
Don't let the network corporate get away with their lopsided attacks on the best candidate--Obama is the winner, only takes a phone call or e-mail to let the network heads know we see thier game.
They will lose!
Do yourself one better, and just get rid of the TV altogether! I used to be serious news junkie, but lets face it, TV news has become inane and pretty much worthless. When my DISH satellite bill did a big monthly price jack, I dumped them, and told them why.
I also declined to sign up for cable, and I don't even have an antenna (still have a physical tv but no recpetion). I've been TV-less for about a year now and don't really miss it much.
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Posted April 23, 2008 | 09:42 AM (EST)