Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results
The Pennsylvania Primary was Hillary Clinton's last chance to deliver a game changing blow to Obama's campaign for the nomination. She failed to deliver.
Pennsylvania provided her with her final real opportunity to knock the wheels off the Obama campaign. She needed a crushing victory of 18% to 25% to have any real chance of altering the math or the psychology. Demographically, Pennsylvania was made for Hillary: the second oldest state in the nation, heavily blue collar, Catholic and rural -- Hillary's voter profile. She started with a lead of almost 20 points. But her final margin -- which the Pennsylvania Secretary of State says was only 9.2% -- fell far short of what was needed to stop Obama's nomination. Here's why:
1). Pledged Delegates. By CNN's count, Clinton netted about 14 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That still leaves Obama up by 151 pledged delegates. It is likely that after Guam, Indiana and North Carolina, there will be no net change in pledged delegates, even if Clinton wins Indiana, since Obama will certainly pick up delegates in North Carolina. But at that point only 251 pledged delegates will remain to be chosen.
Even if she got 80% of all of the pledged delegates that remain after Indiana, she would still trail Obama at the end of the day.
The battle for the pledged delegate advantage is over.
2). Popular Vote. Pennsylvania was her best opportunity to really close in on Obama's popular vote lead. She picked up about 216,000 net votes. But that still leaves her over 600,000 votes behind, and Obama will likely increase his popular vote margin further after the contests on May 6th. Her failure to blow Obama out in Pennsylvania makes it almost impossible for her to close the popular vote gap.
3). Electability. Clinton's entire strategy rests on the premise that she can convince Super Delegates that Obama is unelectable. Only a massive win in Pennsylvania would have credibly made that case. Clinton's victory did little to enhance her argument.
Regardless of the passions of the moment, history shows us that just because voters prefer one candidate in the primary, it doesn't mean they won't vote for her Democratic opponent in a general election when the choice is a Republican. When all is said and done, primary voters almost always vote for the candidate of their party in a general election - regardless of what they might say (on either side) in the middle of a primary fight.
In fact, the people who decide general elections rarely set foot in primary voting booths. They are the independent voters who vote only in general elections and unengaged voters who are would vote Democratic, but have to be mobilized to go to the polls.
The fact is that to whatever degree Hillary might have more appeal among independent rural and blue collar voters, Obama more than makes up in additional appeal to independent suburban voters. Obama's ability to mobilize new young and African American voters in the general election is indisputably greater than Clinton's.
And of course, Obama will not go into the General Election burdened by the towering Clinton negatives that her own negative campaign strategy increases daily.
The polls, and even Pennsylvania Governor and Clinton supporter Ed Rendell, make it clear that Obama can win Pennsylvania in the general election. But Obama can also broaden the playing field with a shot at winning states like Colorado and Virginia.
4). Super Delegates. Finally is a fact that is generally overlooked by pundits. At the close of the primaries, Obama will not need a stampede of Super Delegates to clinch the nomination. In fact he will only need about 40% of those that remain today.
Let's make the most conservative assumptions about the outcome of the remaining races: Guam, even; North Carolina, 58%-42% Obama; Indiana, 54%-46% Clinton; Kentucky, 60%-40% Clinton; West Virginia, 60%-40% Clinton; Oregon, 56%-44% Obama, Montana 56%-44% Obama; Puerto Rico, 60%-40% Clinton. That would leave Obama at 1,846 delegates at the close of the Primaries.
He would need only 41% of the Super Delegates remaining today to clinch the nomination with 2,025. And let's remember, he has picked up almost one Super Delegate a day for the last month. There is no reason to believe he won't keep picking up Super Delegates as the contest continues. So by the end of the primaries he will need an even lower percentage of the Super Delegates that remain.
All that remains for Clinton are more opportunities for her own campaign to be shut down. If she loses Indiana and North Carolina it will be extremely hard for her to continue. But there is no longer any opportunity for her to defeat Obama.
Clinton's may have won last night, but she failed to do what she needed to do to derail Obama's march to the nomination. In retrospect, Pennsylvania will appear as Clinton's Waterloo.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book, "Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com
Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results
I'm gonna be your number one
I'm not the kind of girl who gives up just like that
Oh, no
It's not the things you do that tease and wound me bad
But it's the way you do the things you do to me
I'm not the kind of girl who gives up just like that
Oh, no
The tide is high but I'm holding on
I'm gonna be your number one
Number one, number one
If we don't stop using these machines, we will NEVER have a legal election again. We haven't had one for over 20 years since Bush Sr. brought in the machines. That's why we have the BUSH/CLINTON dynasty right now and it will continue if we don't do something.
I'll admit I find Clintons' (plural) despicable.
But here's my vow: If she somehow "wins" the nomination, I WILL VOTE FOR HER IN NOVEMBER.
How about you Clinton people?
When we factor in Operation Chaos along with voter suppression in PA, Mrs. Clinton's win there looks even less convincing than you painted it. I hope Democrats will consider....
1. Operation Chaos voters switched to the Democratic Party and voted for Hillary in an effort to prolong Democratic agony, keep the attention off McCain as long as possible and let us know Hillary is the candidate they prefer to see McCain run against in November. Operation Chaos voters will be voting for McCain (or maybe Bob Barr if he decides to run) in November, not Mrs. Clinton.
2. My husband mailed his voter registration in a week before it was due. He never got his voter regsitration card. When he called the voter registration office the day before the election he was told he would have to vote in his former party (not true). When he showed up to the poling place they refused to let him vote in his new party, refused to consult a supplemental list and refused him a provisional ballot.
He was told by the judge of elections "Norristown told me not to hand out any provisional ballots." I returned with him to the polling place carrying our video cam. Another call was allegedly made and my husband was allowed to cast a provisional ballot. Hopefully it gets counted.
The deck in PA was stacked in Hillary's favor and the fact that she didn't do better here tells me she is in big trouble.
And to make it even worse, now Obama has to fight Hillary and McCain at the same time just like when Hillary and Bill ganged up on him. Now he's fighting all three (3) of them with no help whatsoever. Not even the media. So, I guess when you add the Media. It's 4 against 1. This is an issue that shows biased against Obama and for Hillary and IT IS NOT FAIR!
Quit this cowardly hesitating. . .and get with the program.
All that is at stake is the fate of this country!
So what is wrong with going to the convention, and deciding on a candidate then? If they want to keep campaigning let them. I just wish they would conduct a more positive campaign based on their records and what they will do once elected. They need to lay off the politics of destruction now, and think of the REAL enemy: the Bush-McCain doctrine.
Give peace a chance!
If I were a pledged delegate, I would NOT switch my vote from Obama to the Clintons. I am sick to death of their divisiveness. So sick, in fact, that when I see a picture of Hillary, I am physically repulsed.
(I used to be the biggest Clinton fan - I voted for him twice.)
Rasmussen: President, Senate. 4/22. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/19 results)
McCain (R) 38 (43)
Obama (D) 52 (47)
McCain (R) 42 (47)
Clinton (D) 47 (46)
Obama also does well in another key swing state, Wisconsin, winnning it handily.
In New Mexico, which technically had a caucus, but was actually much more like a primary, Clinton edged out Obama by a mere 1700 votes. This indicates that either candidate could win the state in a general election.
Obama also does very well in Washington and Oregon, and puts those in play, but they would be much harder pickups for Clinton. His victory in Virginia also puts that state within Democratic reach, where with Clinton at the head of the ticket would not pick up Virginia. Sound like crazy talk? Not really. Remember that VA recently elected both Democratic governor and senator.
Where Clinton has advantages over Obama, would be the key delegate heavy swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which are certainly all very important states. But overall, Obama puts more swing states in play.
I honestly think either of them can beat McCain in the general.
If you read (and understood) Creamer's article, you'd know that even 10% is at least 8% less than Clinton needed to alter Obama's easy ride to the nomination.
To recap: Clinton needed at least an 18% margin of victory and actually got only slightly better than half that amount, 9.2%.
Obama will win the nomination.
The Clinton's have devoted their whole lives to politics. I bet you don't do more than vote when it suits you. That is not a reason to vote for them, but at least show some respect.
Right now, the Clintons have put their own narcissistic interests ahead of the country's interests.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DJjp9Bi3f0
Clinton is LYING through her teeth and the constant nodding of her head up and down indicates she agrees with every word SHE says. Ludicrous! Remember NAFTA, Columbia, Bosnia, Ireland, Health Care, Kosovo, BILL! Do you really want BILL in the White House again, this time as Co-President just lurking about trying to find new aides to court????? I think not!
In addition, as of yesterday I am boycotting Morning Joe, ABC News Network and Cable, and Fox News Network and Cable News. These people have delivered the most biased news I have seen in decades. They salivate over the minutest detail, and show just how irresponsible journalism can be when placed in the hands of bigots, racists, and immoral individuals.
And seriously, it's past gut check time for Hillary's campaign. Creamer is right, Hillary can't win this, not by any measure. The rest of the primaries will not add or subtract significantly from either candidates pledged delegate totals, which leaves Obama in the lead by about 150, and Obama has steadily been gaining on Clinton's superdelegate lead while hers has hardly changed (233, Obama to 256, Clinton).
By going negative on Obama Hillary's campaign is just damaging the presumptive nominee for November, which only helps the the Republicans. Of course you should still vote for whomever you prefer (that's what primaries are about), but there's also not much point to keeping this going this long. Now that the Clinton campaign is convinced that the negative campaigning works, it looks like more of the same.
Oh, well, it will all be over, I hope, by June 2nd.
It would be great to focus on certain shows or networks, and tune out for a day, a few days, a week.
Let the sponsors know why you are choosing to turn off their shows.
Money matters to corporate.
The Hillary hype that hopes to dictate another Democratic nominee, this year, is attempting to take away the enthusiasm from voting or caring about real issues.
Since Hillary's record hasn't been so great, it is much easier to falsely slime your opponent.
Don't let the network corporate get away with their lopsided attacks on the best candidate--Obama is the winner, only takes a phone call or e-mail to let the network heads know we see thier game.
They will lose!
I also declined to sign up for cable, and I don't even have an antenna (still have a physical tv but no recpetion). I've been TV-less for about a year now and don't really miss it much.