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Robert Creamer

Robert Creamer

Posted: November 5, 2010 08:19 AM

Republicans won control of the House Tuesday, but their hopes of controlling the Senate as well were stymied by a firewall of Latino voters who were outraged by Republican demonization of Latino immigrants, their Arizona "papers please" law, their proposal to repeal the 14th Amendment, and their overall opposition to comprehensive immigration reform.

The consequences of the Republican anti-immigrant rhetoric will likely spread far beyond last Tuesday's election. The fact that Republicans have alienated the fastest-growing ethnic group in America will have far-reaching consequences for the party's ability to win a Presidential election and compete nationally over the long term.

A quick look at the numbers tells the tale:

  • Senator Harry Reid was trailing Tea Party icon Sharron Angle going into Tuesday's election. In fact, Reid beat Angle by over 6 percent.. The big difference was the Latino vote. Reid beat Angle among Latinos a whopping 90% to 8%, and Latino turnout was up from 12% of the electorate in the 2006 Mid-Terms to 15% in 2010.
  • In Colorado's Senate race, the consensus polls showed Democrat Michael Bennet losing by about 1% in a close race. Instead he won by 1%. His margin among Latinos was 81% to 19% and Latino turnout was up from 9% of the electorate in 2006 to 13% in 2010.
  • In the California Senate race, Barbara Boxer beat Carly Fiorina among Latinos 86% to 14%, and Latino turnout was up from 19% of the electorate in 2006 to 22% in 2010. Fiorina lost despite having spent a record-setting140 million of her own money on the campaign.


Latinos also made the difference in critical Governors' races that will affect the playing field shaped by redistricting.

  • In California, Jerry Brown won Latinos 86% to 13% over Republican Meg Whitman, who had endorsed the Arizona law during the primary and whose hypocrisy on immigration became an issue when it was revealed she had hired an undocumented immigrant to be her maid, and then treated her badly.
  • John Hickenlooper won the Colorado Governor's mansion in a contest with arch anti-immigrant Tom Tancredo and rightwinger Dan Maes. Among Latinos he got 77% of the vote, compared with 14% and 9% for Tancredo and Maes.
  • And in Illinois, Democrat Pat Quinn was re-elected by a margin of fewer than 20,000 votes. Latinos voted for Quinn 83% to 13% for his opponent. Even at 6% of the voters, the support of the Latino community was decisive.
  • According to election-eve polling of Latino voters conducted in eight key states (AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, NM, NV, TX), Latinos overall voted for Democrats over Republicans by approximately 75% to 25% -- a 3 to 1 margin. That is a stark contrast to six years ago when Latinos voted for Democrat John Kerry over George Bush by only 59% to 40% -- a 3 to 2 margin. There has been a massive swing toward Democrats and away from Republicans in this fastest-growing group of voters in the country.

Immigration was the major issue driving these vote totals. In some cases Republican candidates depicted Hispanics as gang members and criminals in ads that were meant to whip up fear among Anglo voters about immigration. That kind of rhetoric is not understood as a difference about a policy or issue. It directly offended the Latino community's sense of identity, pride and self-worth. That drove voter decisions as well as turnout.

The Las Vegas Sun quoted Gilberto Ramirez, a first-time, recently-naturalized voter from Reno, Nevada, as he explained how Sharron Angle's anti-Latino ads influenced the fact that he turned out and the fact that he voted for Harry Reid: "She was depicting me as a gang member. I served seven years in the Marine Corps."

Fiorina and Whitman got on the wrong side of the immigration issue in order to win Republican primaries. Angle, Tancredo, Maes and Colorado Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck overtly trumpeted their anti-immigration positions to whip up fear and anti-immigrant votes. Turned out that was a bad call. And it will likely turn out to be a worse and worse call that will effectively prevent Republicans from winning control of the White House. In fact, demographers tell us that another 1.25 million Latinos will reach voting age between now and 2012.

A major organizational effort by Latino and immigration rights groups helped galvanize voter turn out. The level of organization is only likely to grow over the next several years.

The fact is that as the Latino population continues to grow, it will rapidly become impossible to put together an electoral majority of 270 electoral votes with that kind of Hispanic opposition.

It is increasingly difficult for overtly anti-immigrant candidates to win electoral votes in states like California, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, New York, New Jersey and Florida. Together these states have 117 electoral votes. It would also be very difficult for them to win New Mexico, and might even put Texas into play. Remember that when John McCain and George Bush ran for President they presented themselves as pro-immigration reform candidates. Bush got a sizable percentage of Hispanic voters. McCain got less, but was not wiped out. Between them, Texas and New Mexico have another 34 electoral votes.

If an anti-immigration Republican disqualifies himself completely in states with 117 electoral votes, and then makes life very difficult in states with another 34 (a total of 151 votes), that massively narrows the playing-field where he or she must assemble the 270 votes needed to win election.

Of course right now, Republicans are flush with their victory in the House, and there is no sign that they recognize the looming political disaster just over the demographic horizon. Already Republicans have denied themselves potential control of the Senate because of their immigrant bashing. It is likely that the fresh gang of Tea Party extremists that they have just sent to Washington will make matters worse. Nothing like being hoisted on your own petard.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.

 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
racerx577
07:08 PM on 11/13/2010
You didn't mention connecticut, gov. race. won by 5000 votes,,thanks to urban voters and latinos who pulled it off against an arch conservative. bridgeport, newhaven and hartford,,they did it,,they saved my pension. thank you.
04:21 PM on 11/07/2010
So, what is wrong with legal immigration?
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
hrpmap
Retired man still active..
03:49 PM on 11/07/2010
The Latino vote was apparently a large facter in the CA elections, but at what cost? The state is left in the same basic hands that mde this ince prosperous state to near financial oblivion. Will it get worse in CA? You can bet it will and you can bet they will try to go to the congress for help, and will not get it. The path the voters in CA has chosen will garuantee they will see a fat approaching time when they will be forced by reality to begin the cuts and they will be worse as time goes on. The people of CA definitly voted against their own best interests.
Gasparilla
there is no clean coal
05:21 PM on 11/06/2010
The figures cited are incorrect. Reid got 68 percent of the vote, not 90. Barbara Boxer got 65 percent, not 86. Latinos voted for Democrats in the House at a smaller percentage than 2006. We need a source for these numbers. Here are exit polls analyzed by Pew, and which do not match these.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1790/2010-midterm-elections-exit-poll-hispanic-vote
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
latinonationreport
03:49 AM on 11/07/2010
fair enough in asking for accurate poll citations....HOwever, exit polls aren't unto themselves completely accurate either! Moreover, simple Math suggests that Repubs would have won in those races had they won as much of the Latino vote as W. Bush did in his presidential elections....These candidates and this GOP leadership clearly can't pretend to emphathize with Latino voters nor do they seem to want to do.....
The only one who at least had the dignity (or lacked the spine depending on how you look at it) NOT to endorse outrigh the AZ law was Rubio.....and what a shock...he was the one who won his election and the Latino vote (or enough of it to guarantee victory ) in what would've been a close race he could have lost had it not been for Crist...
Gasparilla
there is no clean coal
07:18 AM on 11/07/2010
The figures cited in these polls are wildly off base. The Pew research ones are based on CNN figures which pretty much match others. There is no way it would have been a close race between Rubio and Meek. The Republicans swept every office in FL on a state level.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
LiberalDemIda
Pragmatic Progressive, Democrat
12:48 PM on 11/07/2010
Exit polls don't tell the whole story. In most states, but specifically California and Oregon,. we have the option to vote by mail permanently. So the figures you cite are only those of Latinos who came to the voting booths, and therefore only tell a part of the story.
Gasparilla
there is no clean coal
01:58 PM on 11/07/2010
There is no way those numbers cited in this story are anywhere near accurate. They don't come close to any other figures.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:20 PM on 11/06/2010
Sharon Angle definately turned out the Latino vote here in Nevada. Her ads were offensive to any reasonable person. Even Republicans would say " did you see Sharron Angles ad?" and their mouths would drop open. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet- or should I say, "second amendment remedy".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
UC Sanity
12:55 PM on 11/06/2010
Latinos are a very mixed group, with many of them being conservative due to the prevalence of Catholicism among them. Others are conservative because they or their parents immigrated from leftist states in Latin America and they have actually experience the shortcomings of Marxism and state control.

The fact that so many Latinos associate with the Democrats shows how alienated they are by the GOP and the conservatives that use hateful rhetoric against them to scare White voters. The hysteria over Latino immigration bunches together the legal and the undocumented, and with that association comes the sympathy that legal Latinos have for undocumented workers.
Latinos would be fairly conservative if Republican candidates and politicians didn't use them as a scare-tactic for ignorant voters in their shrinking base. We'll see how their strategy affects them in the future.
I suspect more Latinos will swing Republican because the GOP will have to start caring about their numbers, and like politicians, will change their message and deny their old race-baiting.
We'll see how many remember the old strategy though.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
latinonationreport
03:40 AM on 11/07/2010
i suspect you're right! Too true on the family/Catholic leanings which influence so many Latinos toward conservatism! Indeed, GOPers would have won(and will win) the Latino vote just like they did with W. Bush if they appeared more empathetic to Latino issues such as immigration, fair trade, and a pathway to citizenship!
www.latinonationreport.c
11:28 AM on 11/07/2010
I am a Latina, I am Catholic and I think that the perception that all Catholics are conservative is wrong. Do not think all Catholics behave the same way. I grew up in Latin America in a Catholic church that was totally involved with Monseñor Romeros' Liberation Theology. To me it is impossible to believe in God and Jesus and not fight for equal rights, equal justice, education, food and shelter for all.
05:32 AM on 11/07/2010
"I suspect more Latinos will swing Republican because the GOP will have to start caring about their numbers, and like politicians, will change their message and deny their old race-baiting."

And lose the Tea partiers? Sure, maybe years from now. Just remember those Republicans who went after Sonia Sotomayor and you'll see that changed isn't coming soon.
12:43 PM on 11/06/2010
So the fallback position for Democrats is to not enforce immigration laws, renew the push for amnesty and hope for a defacto open borders policy, all in anticipation of a vast Latino voter windfall. Talk about a perverse, selfserving logic that betrays the foundations of our country just to score some political gains. And the Democrats wonder why the east and west coasts are their only strongholds.
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dhinds
A Collection of Quotable Gems
10:02 PM on 11/06/2010
The East and West Coasts vote Democratic because their educational, cultural and economic levels are far higher than in the middle states.

Furthermore, in the state with the largest population (California, the seventh largest economy in the world), minorities are now the majority and the largest minority is now the Latinos.

Que Viva La Raza!
04:40 PM on 11/07/2010
Texas is a minority majority state.
charles77
Just the Facts Please
12:23 PM on 11/06/2010
“Comprehensive Immigration Reform” equals amnesty, that’s the real truth.

I'm 52 years old. I lived thru all the debate about “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” in the 1980's. Many younger people here say, "well Reagan approved an amnesty, so what’s the problem now?" Simpson-Mazzoli was a compromise, but once the amnesty part happed, the Left, mainly Ted Kennedy, with help from business owners, stopped ALL enforcement.

I gave the link for people that were not even born when Simpson-Mazzoli passed. I lived thru it. When you give an amnesty and stop all enforcement on employers, that is effect an open border policy. Anyone who was old enough to read a newspaper in 1986, that’s what we did before the internet, knows that any new “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” will NOT be “Comprehensive” at all, just a new amnesty.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me! Anyone who lived thru the Simpson-Mazzoli debates in the 1980's will not be fooled again by calling amnesty, and that's what it was called then, "amnesty with employer enforcement", with the new term “Comprehensive Immigration Reform”!

Just google "Simpson-Mazzoli" ,pick your own sources, and study it.

If you study what happened with Simpson-Mazzoli, you will understand that “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” really just means a new amnesty, and that will encourage many millions more to come and wait for the next amnesty. Last time we legalized 3 million; 15 million more came.
Gasparilla
there is no clean coal
05:11 PM on 11/06/2010
Also a very large percentage of the amnesty applications in 1986 were later proved to be fake. People who had never touched an orange tree were supposedly engaged in agricultural work for years. Given the widespread use of phony licenses and stolen SS numbers by many of the same people, why wouldn't it happen. No one is going to be able to process all these applications and check them with any degree of thoroughness. Also unmentioned is all these "reform" bills include "guestworker" programs. Translation, big business says it can't find enough American workers to work for nothing, so they have to import them.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
marylandtravelinman
12:16 PM on 11/06/2010
Every black cloud......
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Max is Back
Caiu na roda, ou acorda ou vai rodar!
11:46 AM on 11/06/2010
Democrats got alot of mileage from the GOP ads with stock footage of dark latino men next to a barbed wire fence claiming that they were going to steal things from whites.

$harron Angle won among republik_lans by promising concentration camps in the desert for the detention of the american born children of immigrants pending the repeal of the 14th ammendment. They haven't even noticed that the anti latino laws in that state are written by a guy who attends National Socialist Movement rallies regularly. Way to go teabaggers.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Max is Back
Caiu na roda, ou acorda ou vai rodar!
11:38 AM on 11/06/2010
The GOP's reptilian electoral tactic is to create a "Sum of all Fears" wall of sound that will scare older white voters into voting en masse for the party that claims will defend their ethnic rights from every other ethnic religious or social group. The fact that the GOP openly uses racism as a political tactic just shows how deeply the American People will distrust them and their uncle toms like Rubio and Thomas when minorities become decisive in elections. The GOP is digging it's own grave and a few tokens will not help them...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kenyatta J Yamel
10:47 AM on 11/06/2010
republicans ran a disgusting anti-Latino ad in several races including for Sharron Angle using pictures of Mexicans that really set the standard pretty low. That covered with their blatant attempts at suppressing the vote probably helped to motivate Latinos.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mjc
Avoid printing any..
04:02 PM on 11/11/2010
Think she, more than any other tea party twit showed just how low THEY were willing to go using the fear factor to get out the white vote. Disgusting human being, in my book.
09:20 AM on 11/06/2010
Santos 2020!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
yougg
just a citizen
08:52 AM on 11/06/2010
Most of the Latino population is toward the bottom of the economic ladder. Republicans just don't represent that part of the population.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
UC Sanity
12:45 PM on 11/06/2010
But they're rising numerically and socio-economically, and Republicans will have to care. They've just been so clumsy about it (Angle and Whitman) that they have very little credibility with Latino voters. I think more will swing Republican in the future, but many will remember how demonized the Latino community was by Republicans for years.
07:06 AM on 11/06/2010
Guys...I am going to say the two words that are scarring the he!! out of every liberal in this country.....MARCO RUBIO.

MARCO RUBIO is a self-professed Tea-Partier and yet not one liberal has attacked him.

If he runs for vice-president or president....well you know.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dawn wetherill
Beacon of truth
11:15 AM on 11/06/2010
They will allways stir the racist pot. Rubio could be a good candidate for prez.

Minorities are used by the left for political gain as allways. Reid's people handed out gift cards and food to intice voters to the polls.

If the dems have any sense, they would take hie speakership away. Then again, let him keep it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
marylandtravelinman
12:17 PM on 11/06/2010
Go Unions!
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Max is Back
Caiu na roda, ou acorda ou vai rodar!
11:35 AM on 11/06/2010
His support of BS1070 means that his support is limited to Cubans in a general election. He is just as anti immigrant as $harron Angle...