The Three Big Reasons Why Obama is Beating McCain in the Battle for Swing Voters

In seeking to explain elections, pundits present endless analysis of the policy positions of candidates and the "gotcha" moments of political back and forth. Often they analyze debates based on who won the most debating points or got off the best line. But voters have one - often unconscious - screen for evaluating candidates in an election like this one: who do I want as a leader? Often that has little to do with sharp debating skills, or lists of policies and programs.

Swing voters make decisions based on which person they feel comfortable following. They size up which one they think is most likely to be on their side; has strongly held values they can count on; is effective at delivering the goods. They decide which one is self confident; treats them with respect; has integrity; whether he or she has vision - knows where he wants to take us. They ask themselves if they feel an emotional connection with the candidate; which one inspires them and makes them feel a sense of empowerment and possibility.

At different times and different contests the answers to these questions may be different. But at this time, in this historic context, the more swing voters know about John McCain and Barack Obama, the more they decide that Obama has the qualities they are looking for in leader. There are three major reasons why:

1). Swing voters want a leader who will bring change. More Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo than at any time in half a century - 90% according to the latest Washington Post/ABC poll. Obama and his team framed his candidacy as the "change" campaign from the first day. Hillary Clinton failed to frame the debate around "experience" in the primaries and John McCain abandoned a similar attempt a month and a half ago in the general election. McCain chose Palin largely to recast himself as the "change candidate."

But, let's face it, John McCain - with or without Sarah Palin - is no "change" candidate - at least not compared with Barack Obama. When they stood together on the stage at the debates, swing voters saw one candidate who was the grumpy old man who shoos kids off their lawn. Next to him they saw a fresh, smart, energetic, young leader. They saw the past versus the future.

That contrast would have been powerful enough regardless of their party affiliation. But the voter's sense of who is the change candidate was sharpened by the fact that McCain comes from the party of unpopular George Bush and supported his policies 90% of the time.

On the other hand - and this is the key thing - being the candidate of change is not enough in a period of turmoil and uncertainty.

2). Even though they want change, swing voters do not want a leader who is risky. If America were just stuck in a period of gradual decline or stagnation, voters might want to bet on a more edgy, risky leader - maybe someone who presents himself mainly as a fighter, a firebrand - or a maverick. The same might be said of a situation where an electorate feels it has nothing to loose, where people are willing to take a chance on anything but the status quo.

Neither of those situations pertains in today's America. Swing voters do feel a sense of gradual stagnation and loss of hope. But they feel that they have a lot to lose. And they feel an acute sense of chaos and uncertainty. Jobs are being lost; the stock market is swinging wildly. They feel that they are loosing control of their lives. People want desperately to feel they are in control. They need a sense of structure and predictability.

The McCain campaign correctly understood that their only way to overcome Barack Obama's innate advantage as a leader who could bring change, was to convince swing voters that he was simply too risky. They set out to exploit the fear of many voters that a black candidate was "not like them" - "who is the real Barack Obama," they asked. They ran into two problems.

First Barack Obama is a very centered person. People can see his innate sense of calm self confidence, clarity of vision, competency. He is the definition of cool under fire. He is comfortable in his own skin.

Second, McCain has been anything but cool under fire. He moves restlessly across a stage. He and his campaign have lurched from one policy proposal to another - one "hail Mary" political gamble to another. Swing voters saw his choice of Palin as a roll of the dice. They saw him "suspend" his campaign to "lead" the bail out effort, and then reverse himself -- and play very little role in efforts to stabilize the economy. They watched him abandon his principled positions against negative campaigning and trade them in for hate filled diatribes that question Obama's patriotism.

His campaign, his personal style, and his running mate all appear erratic. And of course there is the fact that he would place someone one heart beat from the Presidency who most Americans could not image leading America. Talk about risky.

By appearing himself to be an erratic, lurching, gambler, McCain has done an enormous amount to undercut his own major argument - that electing Obama would be risky.

In fact, this is not at time when people want a "maverick" at all. Even if McCain convinced people he were in fact a "maverick" that's not altogether a good thing. The word "maverick" generally has a positive connotation. But it also conveys unpredictability. Right not people don't want unpredictability - they want dependability. They want leadership that will bring change, but they also want leadership they can count on, not leadership that is full of surprises - that lurches from one thing to another.

As a result, the Washington Post/ABC poll found that more voters think of McCain - not Obama -- as the riskier choice.

3) At times of crisis and uncertainty, voters want leaders who combine a sense a vision with the ability to inspire them. Yogi Bera used to say that if you don't know where you're going any road will take you there. In periods like this swing voters want a leader has a very clear sense of where he will take them. Just as importantly they want a leader who can inspire them to hope. They want to be told that the best days of America are still ahead of us - that we can once again believe that our children will have better lives than we do today. And they want to be personally inspired that they themselves can be part of something meaningful and important.

Obama wins that contest hands down. His ability to inspire has helped him build an army of activists for his campaign - young and old - rich and poor. It has led to a continuing "enthusiasm gap" that Sarah Palin's choice was intended to reduce, but has persisted nonetheless.

That "enthusiasm gap" will translate into a massive Obama organizational and turnout advantage Election Day - especially among young people and African Americans. But it will also translate into votes from swing voters who are looking for inspiration and optimism that we can escape and economic situation that has become frightening and uncertain.

Of course with 21 days to go until Election Day, nothing can be taken for granted or left to chance. Americans who want to pass over the Jordan River of Election Day into the promised land of a new progressive era have to saddle up and help get us there - not just watch and hope. That river might be in sight, but there could be any number of hidden land mines in the miles that remain.

In so many ways Barack Obama is the right leader for this moment. Now it's up to us to make him President.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[ntmessage]

Sounds good, but looking at the polls and the stock market trends over the past month, looks like these 3 reasons have a part to play also.

1. The Economy.
2. The Economy.
3 The Economy.

[LynndaMaree]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/19/181344/79/927/635733

vot*er Regis*tration Fra*ud by Repub*licans.

[kilmer7165]

Obama is pulling out in front because Americans finally realize that politics is not just a game that is played by the big boys, but one that affects each of us on an individual basis. The one thing that we need to understand is that it is great to elect a real leader, but all of us must continue to contribute to the whole in whatever way we can. Real change can only happen with the power of the people and though each of us may have a hard time figuring out where best to be involved we can make a change with very little time.

[Cooper1608]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/19/181344/79/927/635733

Voter fraud detected by Repubs.

[Cooper1608]

OBAMA/BIDEN 2008-2016

[topkatnc]

OBAMA is leading in NORTH CAROLINA!!!! My state has not voted democrat since Carter. I am praying that the people here will vote for the person not the party. We have lost THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of jobs in NC. We can't take another 8 yrs. of CRAP!!!!!!!!!!

[ChessLover4Obama]

DEBUNKING THE BRADLEY EFFECT

The Defect Of "The Bradley Effect"
Of course the bees-nest stirring media is going to go there.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html

Why It's All BS
The 1982 Bradley effect wasn't even an effect...it was Deukmejian closing the voter gap
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect
_selective_m.html

MORE
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-morrison2-2008
oct02,0,7150.column

REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF MCCAIN
http://www.jedreport.com/shipjumpers/

AUDIO OF REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF MCCAIN
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/conservatives-lay-blame-as-oba
.html

Even Bill Kristol who used his column as a LOVE LETTER to Sarah Palin
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/opinion/13kristol.html?_r=1&oref
=slogin&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print

ACORN VOTER REGISTRATION FRAUD DEBUNKED!!!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OH_VOTER_FRAUD_OHOL-?
SITE=OHWOO&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

MCCAIN HATES ACORN…OH REALLY…HE DIDN’T IN 2006!!!

McCain at an ACORN meeting
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/mccain-to-acorn-you-are-what
-m.html

ALL LINKS COURTESY OF www.therandirhodesshow.com

[simmary]

Priority - Obama must be elected as a positive choice, not just because the Republican alternative is abysmal (which it is,but some people will leap into the abyss whatever).

Obama's not perfect and I don't agree entirely with his known policy decisions, but he is clearly an outstanding personality. And as to the practical legislation, Congress has got its job to do.

[Likipedia]

Realistically, no one agrees with everything someone does. But Obama seems to be super intelligent and well thought out. Just starting a sentence with the phrase "It's my understanding..."
strikes me as someone who is open minded and actually may listen to people. An actual thinker as opposed to a knee-jerk reactor. I've never heard McCain start a sentence like that. It always seems to be black and white with this guy instead of grey like the real world.
And I hear he is "aware" of the internet. Maybe he should be clued in to YouTube where you can find most anything he has said and contradicted later throughout his whole life.
It's almost funny if it wasn't so sad. Don't people like that "Obama is an arab" lady have internet access? So much for due diligence. And it looks like party first instead of country first.
What's next? Flyers saying Obama had 2 black babies ? Good god, what's it gonna take for these people to finally vote in their own interests? And the way certain words and ideas are demonized is scary. Capitalism is not all good, socialism is not all bad. Like it or not we need some parts of both. My big pet peeve is profiting off of life's necessities, like utilities, oil, healthcare, even water!
Bottled water! You could put tap water in the bottles and peiople would still buy it as proven by PepsiCo.

[lihartke]

Maybe if Obama wouldn't have had a "spiritual advisor" (for 20 years or would have walked away from him on his own instead of being politically forced to) that preaches "hate for the white man" or maybe if Obama hadn't let his political campaign be started in the Living room of an admitted terrorist or maybe if Farakahn a religious zealot (calling Obama the "Messiah" wouldn't have said that) Or maybe if Obama hadn't said the words on national t.v. "my muslim faith"-That poor little old Lady wouldn't be so scared. How come you say he listens to people and when you hear people saying, they're scared -you don't listen?

[robbie44]

the McCain campaign is ran by a few people who each have their own reasons for wanting to help elect McCain (power,cash,chicks,cars,etc)
full of nothing but gimmicks,cheap tricks and lame tactics w/ no overall strategy (you'd think a navy officer would have a solid strategy,no?)
the Obama campaign is a collective of dedicated supporters who stick to an overall strategy ,not daily talking points ,always measuring twice and
cutting once fully synchronised and right on target.

[wrabbitt]

I have made my decision on who i am voting for, Its the Man i think can start this country on the road to recovery, who will shake up Washington, renew our faith in government, and, end once and for all the lobbyist voice being louder than the taxpayers voice. To end the party bickering! To take Health care away from those who profit from refusing care. Make Big drug companys accountable. Return the benefits to "ALL" veterans, and, listen to us, We are the bread and butter for congress! if you can't play by "our" rules move to some other country! Coin operated politicians are easy to find, pay for performance would save taxpayers millions of dollars a day!

[thestargazer]

Remember when McCain first suspended his campaign, right before the Republican Convention so that he could go down to Louisiana to (attend a photo op) "help" with Hurricane relief? I remember see some video of McCain in a packing line where he and others were filling care packages for hurricane victims. McCain was responsible for adding some sort of spray bottle/cleaner to the package.

I remember it odd that every time he picked up a bottle of this cleaner he stared at it oddly as if he'd never seen anything like it. Then it hit me, the reason the cleaner was so odd to him is that neither John nor Cindy have ever had to clean or disinfect anything their lives.

In fact, according to their 2007 tax returns, The McCain's spent more than $217,000 on domestic help alone. Now, I don't know what the median family income is in the U.S. but it seems that the McCain's spend multiples of the Median Family Income just keeping their houses clean and well-manicured.

Is this someone that can identify with the common person or a poser?

[Likipedia]

Is that that trickle down thing they used to talk about?

[lagumbo]

I am a proud supporter and donor to the OBAMA campaign, but I am am even proudest that I will help to elect him to the office of the president of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. That day will be our proudest moment.

[lihartke]

I'd love to send him there too! Unfortunately he has way too many issues needing to be addressed and votes on the wrong side of most of this issues I care strongly about(waste in govt). He's a major culprit of this wasteful Govt. not a solution. And, on top of that, I don't like the company he tends to keep. Terrorists,Racists,Radicals, where are his good friends? What favors will he owe? And, what will he be willing to pay? We don't know a lot about him but, what we do know is scary.

[Likipedia]

Would it be a problem for you to ask the same of McCain?

[Martha601]

I don't know why these McCain supporters, or rather Obama haters are still trying to convince Obama supporters of him being a terrorist, socialist, traitor, or any of the other ridiculous accusations. It's the same all over the world at this point...IT'S NOT WORKING SO JUST STOP IT PLEASE!!! It's starting to appear quite desperate. I would suggest you go on a site that is fond of the type of conversation that you all seem to enjoy so much because, quite frankly, no one really cares about what you are talking about anymore. Maybe if your concerns were actually objective and not built on so much hate and misinformation, then, you would have a better chance at making a strong statement that could be debatable and receive the attention that you so long for it to have- and the affect that you crave that it will create, such as, people thinking twice about voting for Obama. But, sorry to tell you, just as sure as you are about McCain, you better believe that we are strong in support for Barack. I'm not one who you should necessarily take advice from because I'm just a citizen like you, but for appreciation of your time and common sense, GIVE UP! WE ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA AND THERE'S NOTHING YOU CAN SAY TO CHANGE IT!!!! BARACK THE VOTE!!!!!!!

[zerotimes10]

Yeah I think its safe to say that we have let ourselves be bullied by the Republicans. But those days are over. We finally figured out that no one is going to come and rescue us from those bad old Rethugs who say such awful things about us Liberals. We have beat the bully realizing this and becoming outspoken and organized. Victory will be ours. After that the hard work begins. The people that hate us will always hate us. They will not wake up one day and say; "Gee I've just been terrible to my fellow countrymen and women. Shame on me. I will just have to go and apolgize to them all." Like that's gonna happen. We all faced bullies in school. I punched a few of them out and was better for it. I'm not advocating violence but in the 7th grade, it was my only option. As a grownup there are better options and they work a lot better.

[lihartke]

You can vote for whom you choose. I say the fact that your willing to vote for someone that has a preacher that hates white people is scary. I say the fact that Farakahn is supporting Obama and Obama has not denounced him speaks for itself. The fact that obama doesn't denounce any of these(horrible) relationships until he has to politically, speaks for itself. If you don't like me on the site and you can't take the truth-you go somewhere else.

[Likipedia]

HE DID!
Must he wear a T-shirt that say it lest someone forget?
And why are YOU willing to vote for someone that has a preacher that hates?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qNi7tPanUA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFFnumjco-Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXZbIGJrDkg

Why the double standard?

[AnalyzeIT]

Three reasons why Obama is beating McCain, you ask.

1. Palin
2. Carl Rove
3. Palin

[TomTheAlmostUgly]

Let's not forget JM's lying to Letterman and then Dave shows Johnny on the monitor being powderpuffed next to Katie Couric's desk. LIAR!

[NeoLiberal]

His time is now.

Now is our time to wake up and get busy doing the hard work ahead of us.

BHO will lead the way.

[redpepper]

I'm not quite sure where you get your information, but I would bet it is strictly liberals who are giving you your information. Swing voters are going for McCain in many of the states now, because Obama is showing his true colors. First Ayers was just someone in the neighborhood, then, oh yes, I served on a board with him. Well Obama did more than that. He gave speeches with Ayers, he endorsed a book Ayers wrote, and he made sure Ayers got funding. Swing voters are finally waking up. And I am grateful they are coming alive now. When McCain is in the White House, I'm sure one of Obamas allies, ACORN, will be amazed, because theri fraudulent voting practices didn/t work. I am grateful that my county is up on ACORN and who their members are around here and what they are trying to do.
GO MCCAIN and PALIN. WE NEED YOU IN THE WHITE HOUSE>

[Emlyn]

GO OBAMA AND BIDEN - WE NEED YOU IN THE WHITE HOUSE. WE NEED CHANGE NOT THE SAME OLD, SAME OLD!

[Gingersp]

In your dreams!!!
If you think ACORN is about voter fraud, how about the REPUBLICANS in Virginia who are telling college students (who support Obama 2-1) that if they register and vote in Virginia (a swing state)where they attend college, that they will lose their financial aide and insurance from their parents who live in another state (that is not a swing state). Talk about voter fraud!!!!

[lihartke]

If you truly want to legitamately register people to vote why would you pay your employees by the amount of registars they sign up? That is a flaud system and I'm sure everybody would agree, especially given the fact that, that we go through this every year. ACORN is wasting tax payer money and quite frankly Obama has allowed it by funding them and not reprimanding them in anyway. The same way he took money from Fannie/Freddie and forced them to give loans to people who couldn't afford to pay it back, then refused to "reel them in" when the Republicans were telling them; it's going to cause an Economic crisis".

[sonoffestus]

redpepper, sorry I just need to laugh.........HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

You must have been living underground for some time now. Are you aware of what is going on around you? Wake up Brother this is serious stuff.

[mesuki]

WE neeed them like we need a bullet in the head! .....Please,at this point anyone supporting McCain and Palin has either been living under a rock or are just plain stupid!

[darker]

MCCAIN, PALIN?
We need Bush and THEM IN THE JAIL HOUSE, not the White House.

No more years for corrupt Republican LIARS, fear-mongers, war-mongers, hypocrites,
destroyers of the middle and working class, and crashers of our economy.
GET LOST, REPUBLICANS!
we can't afford 'em anymore.

Obama-Biden '08

[Chbronze]

Maybe its because most of us republicans don't like McCain either, and he has run a horrible campaign.

[PadrePio]

There's no need to pontificate any longer. This election is not about McCain vs Obama or Bush 2 vs Obama this election is between Ronald Regan his pal Gordon Gecko and Franklin Delno Roosevelt. This election is about rapacious greed in the financial markets and structuring the markets so they are a level transparent playing filed. That's why you now have McCain, Bush, and Paulson all calling for more oversight.

For over twenty years we have lived with the Political mind set that "greed is good" and markets should be allowed to regulate themselves. "Swing voters" as well as Republicans have bought this crap all along, Trust me I live in small town American and there is no wisdom here, either in the "swing voters" or the people clinging to the Republicans. Don't kid yourselves if the economy hadn't tanked we would still be talking Obama calling Sarah six pack a pig and McCain would be in the lead.

[JinChicago]

dead on

[Likipedia]

Holy crap! A moment of clarity!