The Three Big Reasons Why Obama is Beating McCain in the Battle for Swing Voters
In seeking to explain elections, pundits present endless analysis of the policy positions of candidates and the "gotcha" moments of political back and forth. Often they analyze debates based on who won the most debating points or got off the best line. But voters have one - often unconscious - screen for evaluating candidates in an election like this one: who do I want as a leader? Often that has little to do with sharp debating skills, or lists of policies and programs.
Swing voters make decisions based on which person they feel comfortable following. They size up which one they think is most likely to be on their side; has strongly held values they can count on; is effective at delivering the goods. They decide which one is self confident; treats them with respect; has integrity; whether he or she has vision - knows where he wants to take us. They ask themselves if they feel an emotional connection with the candidate; which one inspires them and makes them feel a sense of empowerment and possibility.
At different times and different contests the answers to these questions may be different. But at this time, in this historic context, the more swing voters know about John McCain and Barack Obama, the more they decide that Obama has the qualities they are looking for in leader. There are three major reasons why:
1). Swing voters want a leader who will bring change. More Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo than at any time in half a century - 90% according to the latest Washington Post/ABC poll. Obama and his team framed his candidacy as the "change" campaign from the first day. Hillary Clinton failed to frame the debate around "experience" in the primaries and John McCain abandoned a similar attempt a month and a half ago in the general election. McCain chose Palin largely to recast himself as the "change candidate."
But, let's face it, John McCain - with or without Sarah Palin - is no "change" candidate - at least not compared with Barack Obama. When they stood together on the stage at the debates, swing voters saw one candidate who was the grumpy old man who shoos kids off their lawn. Next to him they saw a fresh, smart, energetic, young leader. They saw the past versus the future.
That contrast would have been powerful enough regardless of their party affiliation. But the voter's sense of who is the change candidate was sharpened by the fact that McCain comes from the party of unpopular George Bush and supported his policies 90% of the time.
On the other hand - and this is the key thing - being the candidate of change is not enough in a period of turmoil and uncertainty.
2). Even though they want change, swing voters do not want a leader who is risky. If America were just stuck in a period of gradual decline or stagnation, voters might want to bet on a more edgy, risky leader - maybe someone who presents himself mainly as a fighter, a firebrand - or a maverick. The same might be said of a situation where an electorate feels it has nothing to loose, where people are willing to take a chance on anything but the status quo.
Neither of those situations pertains in today's America. Swing voters do feel a sense of gradual stagnation and loss of hope. But they feel that they have a lot to lose. And they feel an acute sense of chaos and uncertainty. Jobs are being lost; the stock market is swinging wildly. They feel that they are loosing control of their lives. People want desperately to feel they are in control. They need a sense of structure and predictability.
The McCain campaign correctly understood that their only way to overcome Barack Obama's innate advantage as a leader who could bring change, was to convince swing voters that he was simply too risky. They set out to exploit the fear of many voters that a black candidate was "not like them" - "who is the real Barack Obama," they asked. They ran into two problems.
First Barack Obama is a very centered person. People can see his innate sense of calm self confidence, clarity of vision, competency. He is the definition of cool under fire. He is comfortable in his own skin.
Second, McCain has been anything but cool under fire. He moves restlessly across a stage. He and his campaign have lurched from one policy proposal to another - one "hail Mary" political gamble to another. Swing voters saw his choice of Palin as a roll of the dice. They saw him "suspend" his campaign to "lead" the bail out effort, and then reverse himself -- and play very little role in efforts to stabilize the economy. They watched him abandon his principled positions against negative campaigning and trade them in for hate filled diatribes that question Obama's patriotism.
His campaign, his personal style, and his running mate all appear erratic. And of course there is the fact that he would place someone one heart beat from the Presidency who most Americans could not image leading America. Talk about risky.
By appearing himself to be an erratic, lurching, gambler, McCain has done an enormous amount to undercut his own major argument - that electing Obama would be risky.
In fact, this is not at time when people want a "maverick" at all. Even if McCain convinced people he were in fact a "maverick" that's not altogether a good thing. The word "maverick" generally has a positive connotation. But it also conveys unpredictability. Right not people don't want unpredictability - they want dependability. They want leadership that will bring change, but they also want leadership they can count on, not leadership that is full of surprises - that lurches from one thing to another.
As a result, the Washington Post/ABC poll found that more voters think of McCain - not Obama -- as the riskier choice.
3) At times of crisis and uncertainty, voters want leaders who combine a sense a vision with the ability to inspire them. Yogi Bera used to say that if you don't know where you're going any road will take you there. In periods like this swing voters want a leader has a very clear sense of where he will take them. Just as importantly they want a leader who can inspire them to hope. They want to be told that the best days of America are still ahead of us - that we can once again believe that our children will have better lives than we do today. And they want to be personally inspired that they themselves can be part of something meaningful and important.
Obama wins that contest hands down. His ability to inspire has helped him build an army of activists for his campaign - young and old - rich and poor. It has led to a continuing "enthusiasm gap" that Sarah Palin's choice was intended to reduce, but has persisted nonetheless.
That "enthusiasm gap" will translate into a massive Obama organizational and turnout advantage Election Day - especially among young people and African Americans. But it will also translate into votes from swing voters who are looking for inspiration and optimism that we can escape and economic situation that has become frightening and uncertain.
Of course with 21 days to go until Election Day, nothing can be taken for granted or left to chance. Americans who want to pass over the Jordan River of Election Day into the promised land of a new progressive era have to saddle up and help get us there - not just watch and hope. That river might be in sight, but there could be any number of hidden land mines in the miles that remain.
In so many ways Barack Obama is the right leader for this moment. Now it's up to us to make him President.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
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Great column. I'm a proud donor to the Obama-Biden campaign!
If you want America to rebound economically and socially, I urge you to vote for Barack Obama. Mr. Obama is a brilliant man with the right approach to solve America's problems.
THANK YOU, Ahumbleopinion!
It's time for ALL thinking people, regardless of parrty, to elect a QUALIFIED person, someone who is informed and open to new ideas while remaining a constantly reliable leader. We are so lucky to even have the chance to vote for Barack Obama!
Tell every thinking person you know; this time it really is not about YOU. It's time to save ourselves as a country and quit letting extremists on either side drive the conversation!
You forgot this big reason: Mickey Mouse and the Dallas Cowboys are voting for him multiple times.
Hilaaaaaaa
On a more somber note, reason 4 might be that John McBrain has hired a former lobbyist for Saddam Hussein to head up his presidential transition team. Now we good Americans sure don't want to vote for someone who's pallin' around with terrorists, do we?
Poor Tom, millions and millions of former Republicans, as well as Mickey Mouse and the Dallas Cowboys - all voting for the black guy. Enjoy November 4th, and have one on me, ya' hear?
Huh?
He thinks that 2,000 registration cards flagged by ACORN as fakes is somehow more important than the hundreds of thousdands of voters that the GOP is trying to disqualify illegally.
And what do you think Is going to happen Mr Ellison when those so-called falsely registered voters show up to vote? Do you really believe that they are going to be allowed to vote? Or are you just perpetuating the ACORN myth along with the rest of the Repubs so that they have justification for protesting the results after Obama wins? If you want to see the REAL problem with voting, go watch the BLACKOUT video and see the PROOF about falsely puged registrations and lack of voting machines and 6-7 hour long lines encountered during the last "fair election".
"More Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo" ???
OK you can call it 'status quo'. I call it Republicans! NO MORE of this insane approach to government.
Early voting is the key. GO AND VOTE TODAY!!
John McCain took 300 million Americans and just drove them into a ditch with his 15 minute meeting decision to pick the totally unqualified Sarah Palin as next in charge.
This is NOT country first. This man is dangerous. Much more dangerous than Barack Obama would ever be. Then all the "little minded Republicans," some of whom have been around for 20 ro 30 years or more in public "service" couldn't be effusive enough in their praise for this truly dimwitted decision.
If you've had enough of all this, just pull a STRAIGHT Democratic ticket when you vote to send John McCain, Sarah Palin and all the rest of their little Republican shock troops back home where they can all reflect on what a sick game they all tried to pull on 300 million Americans.
Keep in mind, people, that George Bush only kept his power because every one of those House Republicans and Senate Republicans have supported all his nonsense over the past 8 years.
McCain and Palin don't run in a vacuum. They are supported by the REPUBLICAN party operatives who have been in office all these years. Vote DEMOCRATIC for a change.
God Bless Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The only true Americans running for the top spots.
Make them your choice on November 4th. And give them the help they need to get their programs passed by giving them as many DEMOCRATIC office holders as you can.
I voted yesterday, for Democrats wherever they were on the ballot. Here in DuPage County, IL, there were several offices where the only name on the ballot was a Republican. I left those blank. I never vote for Republicans; it only encourages them.
I do the same thing -- when there isn't an opponent for a Republican candidate (as there often is not in Texas), I leave it blank. I don't vote for Republicans, even if they are unopposed.
Boy, is THAT the truth!
Here, here! I agree with your statement: "The only ture Americans running for the top spots. Make them your choice on November 4th."
Obama is with the middle-class. Always have been. It's time for independants and swing-voters to realize that. Vote early, vote now.
Obama is both a brilliant strategist AND an effective tactician. And yes, Senator McCain, he does know what those words mean.
Finally, he is an extremely eloquent communicator. While this has been painted as a weakness (he is just talk and no action) his campaign itself is evidence of the complete opposite. Sometimes words are indeed just words. But when you have the brilliance of a superior strategic vision and effective execution of action then eloquent communication simple becomes the clincher.
Obama has all of the qualities I want in my next President.
Well Stated! I totally agree.
Get out and VOTE Everyone,and Vote for the winning Team - Obama/Biden.
I've believed for some time now that Obama would win in a landslide (at least in the electoral college), but as the election draws near, I'm becoming increasingly worried about e-voting. In precincts where the machines don't leave a paper trail, voters should demand to vote on a paper ballot.
Someone else, commenting on another article on the HuffPo, brought up the possibility that McCain is actually creating this disaster of a campaign on purpose. That concept certainly passes the "Occam's Razor" test.
No it doesn't. The Occam's Razor explanation is that McCain is flailing because the failed economic policies of the Republicans have come home to roost, his temprament is doing him no favors, his runningmate is a sideshow tha does nothing for the ticket, his only visible supporters are unappealing wingnuts, and his "foreign policy" advantage has been put on the back burner. The idea that McCain is losing on purpose requires mental contortions that does not withstand the razor.
I am a registered Republican, but I came out of the primaries as an Undecided Voter. When the Republican Party selected the dangerously unqualified and ruthlessly ambitious Sarah Palin as their VP nominee, I became a Decided Voter, for Barack Obama. I live in Ohio, so I requested an early ballot to give me time to research some of the local races. However, after hearing one too many of the “pallin’ around with terrorists” lies, I picked up my ballot and voted a straight Democratic ticket. I know that is not an intelligent way to vote, but I don’t know any other way to send the message to the Republican Party – if this is the best you can do, then I’m not buying!
I'm a Patriot and I approve this message!
Wow, each of those responses is just fantastic. And, reading five straight replies that are positive and upbeat is refreshing when the election has become so very ugly.
Thank you all!
Great comment!
I approve this message as well.
I did the same in Minnesota. Absentee - straight Democrats up and down the line. I've never cast a Democratic vote in my entire life until this year, and now I grin from ear to ear just thinking about submitting that ballot. It was sweet...
Refresh and revamp the GOP and I might come back some day. But with each dirty trick and slight to those like me who'd actually "vote for the other guys", they pretty much ensure I'll never be back.
Just imagine how much of this disillusionment is going on across the country - "reformed" Republicans with all those future Democratic votes! It's gonna be a long "offseason" for the GOP!
Yes, this blog is just filled with good loyal republicans who don't care what the platform is, we will just vote a straight democratic ticket. Yeah, right
I'm going to do the same thing. Maybe the Republicans will realize that the Rovian way of politics need to be thrown out.
Go out and do early voting.
Go out and do early voting
Go out and do early voting
Go out and do early voting
Go out and do early voting
Go out and do early voting
Or as the old Irish joke used to say "Vote Early, Vote often " !!
that's a chicago joke. well it used to be reality, now it is supposedly just a joke.
I grew up hearing that - and say it frequently - most people just stare at me blankly.
'past versus the future' - this is really to bottom line
What was in the past has effected all of us, at so many levels. We can not survive more of the same or the 'old way'. We need new ideas, a new vision.
We need hope and that is what Obama is offering.
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