Top 10 Reasons Obama Defeated Clinton for the Democratic Nomination
Now that the outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been settled beyond a reasonable doubt, it's worth looking systematically at the major factors that gave victory to Obama. After all, fifteen months ago, conventional wisdom viewed Obama as an audacious long shot. The very idea of a first-term African American senator with a name like Barack Obama defeating the vaunted Clinton machine seemed preposterous.
Here are my Top Ten reasons why lightning struck in the contest for the 2008 Democratic nomination (apologies to David Letterman ):
#10. Great Team. Obama assembled a great team that could work together. He stayed away from lobbyist insiders like Clinton's Mark Penn or McCain's Charlie Black, and choose political professionals who are committed to progressive values like David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes. From the first he insisted on one key rule: no drama. There was little of the infighting and division in the Obama operation that ate away at the Clinton campaign. Clinton had many capable staffers and consultants, but Penn's divisive leadership style and failures as a strategist doomed the campaign organization to dysfunction. When the brilliant Geoff Garin was tapped to succeed Penn as Chief Strategist in April, it was simply too late.
#9. All-State Strategy. Mark Penn was convinced that Clinton could sew up the nomination by Super Tuesday focusing only on the big states. In fact, some have reported that he mistakenly believed that California had a "winner take all" primary. Obama's team hunted for delegates in every nook and cranny of America - especially in the caucus states that Clinton really didn't contest. Obama ran an active, on-the-ground campaign in every contest, from California to Guam. As a consequence, as one anonymous Clinton insider reports, Clinton lost the nomination in February after Obama ran the table in 11 straight states.
#8. No Plan B. The Clinton campaign had no fall-back plan when it failed to capture the nomination on February 5. There was no money, no organization and no plan to contest the states that lie in the land beyond Super Tuesday.
#7. Excellence in Execution: Great Field. Obama ran the best field operation in American political history -- particularly in the all important Iowa Caucuses. His campaign left no stone unturned, or a vote on the table, in any state. It opened offices everywhere, hired and trained great staff, and managed through simple, streamlined structures. It would have been easy for Obama to squander the massive influx of volunteers who were mobilized through his inspirational message. But the campaign developed structures to integrate and effectively use volunteers, both on the ground and through the Internet. In particular, it developed highly sophisticated new Internet tools to allow volunteers around the country to participate meaningfully in voter ID and get out the vote operations.
#6. Explosive Obama Fundraising. Obama's ability to compete everywhere, to build great field structures and to out-communicate Clinton in the paid media rested squarely on the massive fundraising operation. Obama's traditional fundraising program ended up matching the vaunted Clinton fundraising machine. But the newly developed Internet operation provided a massive advantage. So far Obama has recruited over one-and-a-half-million donors. In other words, by the time the primary season ends, almost one of every ten Obama primary voters (so far there have been 16.3 million) will have made a financial contribution to his campaign. That is beyond unprecedented.
#5. Obama Out-Communicated Clinton Using One Consistent Message. Obama's message has been consistent from Day One. Clinton lurched from "experienced insider" to "populist outsider" from Margaret Thatcher-like "Iron Lady" to a "victim being bullied." And of course, Obama's huge small-donor-driven fundraising advantage gave him the ability to out-communicate her in the paid media - often by a factor of two-to-one.
#4. Hope and Inspiration trumped Fear and Anger. A core element of that Obama message has always been hope and inspiration. Early on, John Edwards hit an important cord of populist anger that is critical to any successful Democratic campaign. Right now especially, people want their leaders to be populist outsiders not "competent" insiders. But Edwards was unable to resolve that anger into hope. Obama touched the anger but also held out possibility. When Hillary "found her voice" as the fighting populist at the end of the campaign, she tapped into anger as well. She didn't hesitate to play the fear card -- both when it came to foreign policy, and by channeling the Republican frame that "elitist professional types" are trying to destroy your way of life. But she never managed to inspire and resolve that fear into hope.
Inspiration is the one political message that simultaneously persuades swing voters and motivates mobilizable voters who rarely come to the polls. The North Carolina landslide provided a striking example of how inspiration can generate massive mobilization at the same time it appeals to independent swing voters.
#3. Unity Trumped Division. Obama showed that appeals to division - whether from elements that stirred up fear that a "black candidate couldn't win" - or from his former pastor - could be overcome by America's overwhelming hunger for unity. Americans - and particularly young Americans - are sick of Republican appeals based on the things that divide us, particularly race. It isn't 1988 anymore. A whole generation has passed from the scene and been replaced by young people who simply don't get the passions that allowed the fear of "Willie Horton" to decide the 1988 presidential race.
#2. Change Trumped Experience. Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn's fundamental strategic error was to position Clinton as the "Experience" candidate, when America desperately wanted change. Eighty percent of the voters think America is on the wrong track. They want change in general - and most importantly, they want change in the way special interests dominate Washington. Mark Penn, the consummate lobbyist-insider himself embodied the very thing people believe is wrong in Washington. It's no wonder he made this catastrophic strategic blunder.
#1. Obama is an Extraordinary Candidate. Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer, his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any campaign manager would want in any year. But he is perfect for this year. While the Clintons represented the Bridge to the 21st Century, Obama is the 21st century. His own, multi-cultural story is the future of America. As the campaign tested him, he showed he was cool, deliberate and effective under fire.
In the end, people vote for people. Campaigns are ultimately about the qualities of candidates --about whether or not people want them to be their leaders. Potentially, Barack Obama could become an historic, transformational leader. But John McCain has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as well. Nothing is preordained. Now it will be up to every Democrat, every Progressive, to take advantage of this historic opportunity to make Barack Obama the American President who leads the world into a new progressive era of unprecedented possibility.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com
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I will tell y'all this much. I am 60 years old and this is the first - repeat - first time I have donated to a candidate's campaign. That would be Obama. I can't afford a hell of a lot; my wife and I chose to adopt two little girls from China in the past few years and raising 'em ain't cheap. However, I AM one of those 1.5 million donors . . . and I WILL donate again.
Barack Obama, and his campaign, have shown me just how smart they are. They have seen the future and taken steps to address it. Everything Obama and his campaign have done is smart and, more importantly, highly inclusive (remember the "Big Tent" concept; think of this as hypertrophied).
Frankly, although I don't believe in counting those proverbial chicks prematurely, and everyone knows just how unethical, unprincipled, and bloody vicious the Republican machine can be, I think McCain is toast. Hillary is merely old news.
You rock Cranky!
Thank you !
You are walking into the lion's den.
How so?
Thnak you. And here I was thinking it was the hamster's nest.
Hear hear! Nice to have you along for the ride!
This is not the whole story by a long shot. These are all comments on how her carnival tent was decorated. It's what we all heard at the show that has killed her candidacy.
The more we saw/heard Clinton the less we liked/trusted her.
1. She constantly re-calibrated her message on the fly in response to perceived advantage; she's pandered transparently.
2. She's given different stories to different audiences as if she were not being recorded (NAAFTA).
3. She repudiated NAAFTA in a national debate and then dispatched minions to Canada to assure them that NAAFTA would never change and when that communication was discovered she said it was Obama who'd called to sell us out to the Canadians. Which worked for about a day until the Canadians revealed the truth.
4. She claimed to have contributions to Irish peace which were denied by the people who actually did.
5. Her claims of being under sniper fire were not an accident. They were either an exercise in resume fluffing or an hallucination.
6. She whines.
7. Her qualifications are not sufficiently compelling to run on; she has to campaign on attacking her democratic opponent.
The problem with Hillary is Hillary. Not her campaign. Not Obama's campaign.
fp
I love how #1 is just "Obama is made of pure awesome." XD
Yeah, I'm gushing all over, too. NOT!
Do as well as he did in your lives. Come on. I dare you.
Senator Obama's campaign understood and exploited the Democratic primary rules- which resemble the left wing Democratic philosophy- something for everyone- not everything for the winner- as the general election rules do meaningfully and the Republicans have sensibly.
Idaho is an example of the kind of caucus states that Obama won that ratcheted up his delegate count - states that will NEVER vote Dem in the fall.
Look at West Virginia- no Democrat since 1916 has gotten to the WH without carnying WV. Bill Clinton did in 92 and 96.
The left wing of our party has prevailed in selecting Obama- I cannot imagine that he can win in the fall without the !6.5 Million Hillary supporters. Even if 1/3 of us decide to stay home or worse vote McCain- Obama will lose in a landslide.
I sure will if he and his wife continue to denigrate the BEST Dem President in 40 years- Bill Clinton- that sceanrio will happen.,
Jessie Jackson is right- Obama needs Hillary more than she needs him.
Where does Lewinski, Flowers and many other nasty things fit in that "BEST Dem President in
40 years'' concept ?
Exploited the rules? The Primary kicks off with the Iowa CAUCUS! If your not ready for that they you arent ready from day one I guess.
Senator Clinton had a responsibility to understand and exploit those same rules. It's not Obama's job to lose to Clinton.
If she couldn't beat a black Junior Senator with a Muslim name, I fail to see how she would be such a powerhouse in the GE. Polls are important, but you have to *execute*. Her campaign has fallen short thus far.
exactly right.
ahgain jesse speaks for jesse no one else
I am a 60 year old black veteran of the Civil Rights Movement, and even I don't listen to Jesse Jackson anymore, nor have I listened to him for many years. In fact, I don't know anyone who does, except the white media who insist that Jackson and Sharpton are the "leaders" of the black community. Both Jackson Sr. and Lynn Sweet (author of the article in which Jackson said Hillary needs Obama) are Clinton supporters. Jackson is occasionally a reluctant Obama supporter when the TV cameras are available. He is indebted to the Clintons and if anything, HE, not Obama, needs Hillary more than she needs Jesse!
Hillary needs Obama: She needs him to lose this nomination, but that's over! She needs him to grant her access to the White House by asking her to be his VP, but that's unlikely. Or she needs him to under-perform as President so she can run again in 2012. Both Jackson and Hillary need Obama more than he needs either of them.
Uhm, thanks for sharing. I don't agree with any of it, and i've already forgotten your points because they don't make sense at all. But it's good to rant sometimes, and get stuff out of your system.
You'd better do something about that memory problem. However, it may explain your support of Obama. When he changes his story to a new one, you've already forgotten the old one.
I agree with reason #1 that Obama is simply an outstanding candidate. Hillary offers more of the same, even though under Democratic leadership. She tells people what they want to hear, as she did with the tax gas suspension. Obama communicates directly and speaks to his audience as if they are intelligent. He rarely panders. He does not try to oversimplify things and believes in our ability to understand complex problems. This quality is rare for a politician at present and it is equally rare for the public to respond to such a politician. Obama will take us into a brighter future and cast our partisan and many racial divisions aside.
You must not follow politics very closely. Hillary and obama vote almost identically. Obama offers nothing more than Hillary and Hillary offers nothing more than Obama.
The only difference between them is an imaginary one. Obama claims he "would" have voted against the war.....bu
Obama has not offered up a balanced budget bill, he has not offered up a real fix for our coming midecare collapse, he has not offered up a fix for social security. His senate record is unremarkable.
Mr Change? Since when? You guys want his face carved on Mr Rushmore and you want to teach our children he was the greatest president ever.....a
Maybe. But I bet if Obama put a donate button on his website and emails to contribute for the face carving at Mt. Rushmore, he'd have the funds by the end of the month.
Steve is going to be very, very bitter for the next eight years....
Wow hillary voted against the war? news to me..
The difference, frankly, is that he executed a MUCH better campaign than she did. Nearly flawless. That does speak to leadership, vision, and skill in picking subordinates. It's the rubber meeting the road.
Huh? What are you talking about? realpolitic was talking about point #1, which says that Obama is a ver charismatic and brilliant person that people want as a leader. Your post doesn't address that at all.
To all of Hillary's "Sour Grape Eaters"...
We don't need another Top 10 list as there is only one reason Clinton lost the nomination = Iraq resolution vote - it ain't all that complex. The nomination would have been hers months ago if she hadn't alienated a core liberal constituency.
Spot on baby, spot on. It's nice to be able to stick it to the warmongers once in awhile. Paece
Actually, I think the one mistake she made was that assumed it was hers from the onset, so she completely underestimated anyone else's ability to get the nomination. Though her vote definitely hurt her.
The other mistake was Bill.
Yes, she did underestimate the field especially Obama. THey thought they would have this sewn in Feb. When Obama won Iowa, that shook Clinton's campaigned to it's core. Throughout the campaign she underestimated, undervalued, and marginalized Obama.
The fact that he was the president of the Harvard Law Review should have told her something. He put on a clinic!
The author is talking about how Obama won, not how Clinton lost
That's right. So, the ultimate reason Obama was able to win the nomination and implement these top ten strategies is that he was given a large opening because of Clinton's unpopularity with the anti-war crowd; without her vote for the Iraq resolution, I still believe this would have been Clinton's nomination and nothing on this list would have mattered or made a difference.
You nailed it Robert. It was all about inspiration and execution. Without the execution, he would have been just another dreamer. Without the inspiration, the execution wouldn't matter.
Anybody who still needs evidence of his leadership skills should just look to this campaign as evidence of everything you look for in a President.
Here are ten more reasons . . .
10
Hillary claims she is “experienc
9
She has run a dishonest and nasty campaign. Like Bush she lies effortlessly.
8
She is the ultimate Washington insider. Her advisors, for the most part, are old time Washington insiders. Think Mark Penn.
7
Her policy is: if you can’t win, change the rules. She agreed that FL and MI delegates wouldn’t count. Now she demands those delegates.
6
She’s a war monger. She voted to go to war in Iraq. She never regretted her vote. Then she voted for Kyl-Lieberman bill.
5
She is owned by the same lobbyists who own Bush.
4
Hillary is not a self-made, independent woman. She has gotten this far on the coattails of her husband.
3
Carpetbagger. She picked a state she could win and worked her way into the senate.
2
She is a phony. She tries too hard to sound macho in her pro-war saber rattling. She sounds like Bush when he proclaimed “mission accomplish
1
A lot of us don't want Billary in our face for the next four or eight years whenever we turn on the tv or radio? We are sick to death of their sick soap opera?
IndyProd you are spot on. I went into this race as a supported. I am now totally behind Barack.
I agree with most of the reasons. Obama is indeed an extraordinary candidate and his campaign worked very well. However if I may add a couple of things.
#1A. Overwhelming press bias: Constant Hillary-bashing and Obama-drooling. (for some reason the "Clinton establishment" failed to produce it's own MSNBC, CNN, Newsweek, Huffpost etc)
#1B. DNC rules. If the Democrats had the same rules as the Republicans or the General Elections, Hillary would have been the nominee a long time ago.
#9 (Revised) 48-state-strategy
#2,3,4 (Revised) . For anyone who has lived thru a few previous elections the words Change, Experience, Hope, Fear, Uniter, Divider etc must sound mighty familiar. They are recycled every couple of elections or so. Obama was smart enough to use the right slogans.
I for one welcomes a President smart enough to organize a campaign such as Obama has. I want a President smart enough to go against the Clinton machine and win.
I want a President smart enough to bring in new voters. I have no problem with Obama.
I agree. The incredible leadership and organization to have taken on the Clinton juggernaut and won without being sucked deeply into the mud is not to be dismissed. We're a better nation with that sort of talent and skill in the White House.
AMEN OhMyGoodness!
Ya, I'm sure he has plenty to thank the media for harping on his ex-pastor til people's heads exploded. Don't cry about him getting a free ride, there is nothing further from the truth. Issues of Hillary's have never ran more than a week. She got off soft and you know it.
If you don't like the rules in the Democratic party you are welcome to help change them, but changing them to be MORE like republican rules is kinda lame. If Hillary wanted to run by the republican rules there is an easy answer to that.. she could go join the republican party.
Don't forget Guam, Puerto Rico, and American Samoa. If MI and FL want to complain they merely have to put in better statesmen on their own doorsteps. Both candidates would like the rules to go in their favor, and asking them to fix it is kind of dumb. These are state issues.
So, what is the real change then? Why is this campaign different? Two words, money and transparency. The money is coming from the people, not small groups of people. Every card gets laid on the table with this guy, so no more back room deals, PACs and lobbiests controling the show anymore. That is a good start imo, if you think otherwise feel free to run for president but I happen to think Obama is doing a hell of a job.
over half his money came from pac's and lobbyists just employing the new term of bundlers.
This is nonsense.
Media bias: Media bias has swung all over the place--for months Clinton was inevitable and could do no wrong, at other times the media fawned over Obama, at other times they piled on, like with the whole Wright affair--or pretending for weeks now that Clinton still has a chance.
DNC rules: you campaign with the rules you have. Don't you think Obama's team would have been smart enough to win with whatever the actual rules were? I do.
thank you, seth!!!
That's what was killing me with this Clinton still has a chance. If the situation was reversed, Obama would have been forced to give it up after getting his butt kicked 11 straight times!
If it was actually close, shouldn't she atleast have had a chance to catch him?
Yeah the same media that did jeremiah wright 24/7 for 3 weeks, the same media that spent 45 minutes of a debate on wright, lapel pins and ayers. The same media that spinned it as a tie after 11 straight losses by Clinton.
Did anyone in the media (the "liberal" media that is, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN) asked Obama to explain his contradictions with Rev Wright (did he hear him say those things or not), with Rezko (was their 15-year relationship just a few phone calls), or NAFTA?
And it was virtually a tie after 11-loses. 2% difference with 1/3 of the votes not cast yet does count as a tie. Unless you are Jonathan Alter and overexcited and you want Hillary to get out already.
Yeah, but this wasn't the repugs rules, she was running as a dem so she had to follow the DNC rules which she agreed to do. Case closed.
That is true those were the rules. I would just think though that when someone makes his expert analysis on the elections he may want to consider the possibility that under the general elections rules the outcome would have been very different.
From Dreams of My Father, " I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER'S RACE".
Barack Obama
From 'Dreams of my Father', "The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, the other race (WHITE) would always remain just that: menacing, alien, and apart."
Barack Obama
From Dreams Of My Father: "That hate hadn't gone away," he wrote, BLAMING "WHITE PEOPLE ? some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives."
Barack Obama
From 'Dreams Of My Father', "There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs," he wrote. "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names"
Barack Obama
whoever pays you, honey, tell them it's not working !
Obama is awesome.. I hope and pray he goes all the way.. he has my support in anyway I can give... yes.. Im one of the 1.5 donators too..... this is the ONLY candidate I have EVER donated too.. or supported in ANY way.... the reasons are obvious.. and well stated above...
Thank you so much for the quotes from his book. It is clear that Obama (like many bi-racial individuals) stuggled with his identity. I cannot imagine looking in the mirror and seeing my black face and being surrounded by those who don't look like me. It further demonstrates what those of us raised in single parent homes feel about that elusive father. He laid his feelings out there for the world to see and for some it shows his inner struggle with being both black and white. For others it demonstates his racial preference. He loved his white mother and his white grand parents and I believe he wanted desperately to connect to his father and his family. There is no shame or blame in that.
Your point is????
My point is that these statements are consistent with Obama's religion; black liberation theology. Here is a statement from its founder, James H. Cone, describing Obama's religion:
"Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community. Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love."
So what the hell are you so afraid of?? I hope you realize that your obsession with this black thing is making you sound eerily like Charles Manson and his end of the world rants. Calm down man, its all gonna be ok.
Not afraid, just informed. Educate yourself; read a few books from James Cone about Obama's religion, black liberation theology. I have, and I have to warn you that all that hate and racism is a very depressing read.
Hey wino486 were you drinking when you wrote your comment? In the first place you are off topic;
in the second place your anger is misplaced, and should be directed at the war-mongers of the
Republican Party. Barack Obama never wanted this to be about race, since it is a losing proposition. He wanted it to be about issues and who had the better vision to lead the country.
Yes, people do vote for people, and Obama is: " Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer, his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any campaign manager would want in any year."
It is a historical necessity, and a blessing, that Iowa is the first voting state, where people
can see feel and touch the candidates personally. Get off the wine. Enough said.
No, I was not drinking. And how sad that you have to be so mean. I am just sick of all of you whiners talking about how you have never been proud of your country before. But my husband fought so whiners like you could whine. Enjoy your freedom and leave mine alone!
Obama's primary campaign was just plain brilliant in concept and execution. Simply brilliant. The feeling of substantial change, inspiration, and hope all wrapped up in a highly printable, viral logo. The near-complete harmony of his top advisors and managers. Delivering the right speeches and avoiding silly, transparent games. And a really deep well of cash that replenishes itself when he needs it.
This guy worked the system in exactly the way a great President would and should. Barack knows how to get things done.
I did a small amount of low level volounteering, and I gotta say the Obama team has thee sh*t together. In our little county w knocked on 30,000 doors.
1. Potentially, Barack Obama could become an historic, transformational leader.
2. But John McCain has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as well."
The first remark I can agree and understand.
The second one is so far off base, I'm surprised you even ventured there. He does NOT have many qualities that are attractive to swing voters. Aside from his diminished mental capacity, his moral compass has gone astray, he is one giant loser...th
You are talking about a new change a new direction and you throw McCain in as a contender? Sure if we want to continue to circle the drain as our country goes down the tube.
McCain has major problems. He's Stretch Armstrong now. He's being pulled so many ways with the right-wing pulling at him the hardest. They hate him as a candidate but realize they are stuck with him.
Here is a man who went out and actively sought out the nomination of John Hagee to show Hannity and O'Reilly he's one of them. Then agrees to meet with Hannity to go over the right-wing conservative agenda.
Now he's alienated Hannity and Gingrich because he's gone back on some of his promises he made to them. So McCain probably doesn't know what he will do himself next depending on who pulls on his coattail next.
I'm loving this!
The mccain of ten years ago could attract alot more swing voters.
The reality is that over the last 6 months, mccain has flip flopped on most of the issues fought for, voted for and supported over his career.
I've lost my respect for him ... because now ... he's just another politician ... he doesn't stand for anything anymore.
I'll Give you 5 Reasons:
Barack Obama Winning With the 5 M's
Mission
Change for the Good
Money
Get The Rake
Message
Adept at detail and vision
Media
Obama Everywhere
Management
Skillfully managed by Campaign Manager David Plouffe
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