Top 10 Reasons Obama Defeated Clinton for the Democratic Nomination

Now that the outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been settled beyond a reasonable doubt, it's worth looking systematically at the major factors that gave victory to Obama. After all, fifteen months ago, conventional wisdom viewed Obama as an audacious long shot. The very idea of a first-term African American senator with a name like Barack Obama defeating the vaunted Clinton machine seemed preposterous.

Here are my Top Ten reasons why lightning struck in the contest for the 2008 Democratic nomination (apologies to David Letterman ):

#10. Great Team. Obama assembled a great team that could work together. He stayed away from lobbyist insiders like Clinton's Mark Penn or McCain's Charlie Black, and choose political professionals who are committed to progressive values like David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes. From the first he insisted on one key rule: no drama. There was little of the infighting and division in the Obama operation that ate away at the Clinton campaign. Clinton had many capable staffers and consultants, but Penn's divisive leadership style and failures as a strategist doomed the campaign organization to dysfunction. When the brilliant Geoff Garin was tapped to succeed Penn as Chief Strategist in April, it was simply too late.

#9. All-State Strategy. Mark Penn was convinced that Clinton could sew up the nomination by Super Tuesday focusing only on the big states. In fact, some have reported that he mistakenly believed that California had a "winner take all" primary. Obama's team hunted for delegates in every nook and cranny of America - especially in the caucus states that Clinton really didn't contest. Obama ran an active, on-the-ground campaign in every contest, from California to Guam. As a consequence, as one anonymous Clinton insider reports, Clinton lost the nomination in February after Obama ran the table in 11 straight states.

#8. No Plan B. The Clinton campaign had no fall-back plan when it failed to capture the nomination on February 5. There was no money, no organization and no plan to contest the states that lie in the land beyond Super Tuesday.

#7. Excellence in Execution: Great Field. Obama ran the best field operation in American political history -- particularly in the all important Iowa Caucuses. His campaign left no stone unturned, or a vote on the table, in any state. It opened offices everywhere, hired and trained great staff, and managed through simple, streamlined structures. It would have been easy for Obama to squander the massive influx of volunteers who were mobilized through his inspirational message. But the campaign developed structures to integrate and effectively use volunteers, both on the ground and through the Internet. In particular, it developed highly sophisticated new Internet tools to allow volunteers around the country to participate meaningfully in voter ID and get out the vote operations.

#6. Explosive Obama Fundraising. Obama's ability to compete everywhere, to build great field structures and to out-communicate Clinton in the paid media rested squarely on the massive fundraising operation. Obama's traditional fundraising program ended up matching the vaunted Clinton fundraising machine. But the newly developed Internet operation provided a massive advantage. So far Obama has recruited over one-and-a-half-million donors. In other words, by the time the primary season ends, almost one of every ten Obama primary voters (so far there have been 16.3 million) will have made a financial contribution to his campaign. That is beyond unprecedented.

#5. Obama Out-Communicated Clinton Using One Consistent Message. Obama's message has been consistent from Day One. Clinton lurched from "experienced insider" to "populist outsider" from Margaret Thatcher-like "Iron Lady" to a "victim being bullied." And of course, Obama's huge small-donor-driven fundraising advantage gave him the ability to out-communicate her in the paid media - often by a factor of two-to-one.

#4. Hope and Inspiration trumped Fear and Anger. A core element of that Obama message has always been hope and inspiration. Early on, John Edwards hit an important cord of populist anger that is critical to any successful Democratic campaign. Right now especially, people want their leaders to be populist outsiders not "competent" insiders. But Edwards was unable to resolve that anger into hope. Obama touched the anger but also held out possibility. When Hillary "found her voice" as the fighting populist at the end of the campaign, she tapped into anger as well. She didn't hesitate to play the fear card -- both when it came to foreign policy, and by channeling the Republican frame that "elitist professional types" are trying to destroy your way of life. But she never managed to inspire and resolve that fear into hope.

Inspiration is the one political message that simultaneously persuades swing voters and motivates mobilizable voters who rarely come to the polls. The North Carolina landslide provided a striking example of how inspiration can generate massive mobilization at the same time it appeals to independent swing voters.

#3. Unity Trumped Division. Obama showed that appeals to division - whether from elements that stirred up fear that a "black candidate couldn't win" - or from his former pastor - could be overcome by America's overwhelming hunger for unity. Americans - and particularly young Americans - are sick of Republican appeals based on the things that divide us, particularly race. It isn't 1988 anymore. A whole generation has passed from the scene and been replaced by young people who simply don't get the passions that allowed the fear of "Willie Horton" to decide the 1988 presidential race.

#2. Change Trumped Experience. Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn's fundamental strategic error was to position Clinton as the "Experience" candidate, when America desperately wanted change. Eighty percent of the voters think America is on the wrong track. They want change in general - and most importantly, they want change in the way special interests dominate Washington. Mark Penn, the consummate lobbyist-insider himself embodied the very thing people believe is wrong in Washington. It's no wonder he made this catastrophic strategic blunder.

#1. Obama is an Extraordinary Candidate. Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer, his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any campaign manager would want in any year. But he is perfect for this year. While the Clintons represented the Bridge to the 21st Century, Obama is the 21st century. His own, multi-cultural story is the future of America. As the campaign tested him, he showed he was cool, deliberate and effective under fire.

In the end, people vote for people. Campaigns are ultimately about the qualities of candidates --about whether or not people want them to be their leaders. Potentially, Barack Obama could become an historic, transformational leader. But John McCain has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as well. Nothing is preordained. Now it will be up to every Democrat, every Progressive, to take advantage of this historic opportunity to make Barack Obama the American President who leads the world into a new progressive era of unprecedented possibility.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com

Comments

[KOisGod]

Maybe this fits in at point 3.5, but instinctively, people know truth, they know integrity, they hear of selfless service when Obama speaks. They WANT to have a Unified America.

And he has a way of speaking to the human heart, and people just feel this, and are magnetized by his words.

Truth does this to humans, we are sensitive to it on a sixth sense level. Let us hope he can lead us. We so desperately need an inspirational leader now.

Obama 08

[Syco]

i think the biggest reason is that no one likes white people.

everyone loves black people thats why we are guilty until proven innocent

[KarateKid]

Are you nuts? Do you think Obama would be where he is WITHOUT the white vote?

[ThePoundcake]

Syco. You want to cry now! it's funny how the ALL of the presidents have been WHITE and everybody has ALWAYS voted to elect a WHITE president no matter what color the voter is, Obama runs and it's a problem?

No one likes white peole? By you saying that means that WHITE people should always be preident..ALWAYS!

[LeonBNJ]

An excellent article. Have you considered a book expanding on these points and others have brought up? The way Sen. Obama conducted his campaign as this article discusses will be used as guidelines for canidates for President and other offices in the future. As others have pointed out, Sen. Clinton had a seriously flawed campaign that hurt her and helped him, but still Obama's campaign was the biggest reason that has led him to be the probable nominee.

[hinnis]

I agree. Perhaps it should be "Axelrod for President." Maybe Axelrod can give a speech without reading it off of a teleprompter.

[TRYKER]

Thats funny, you have a problem with using a teleprompter during a speech, yet you post the same thing month after month, why ? Because you don't use a teleprompter and are just memorizing your one liner and are here showing us how its done?

[hinnis]

The media, the DNC and the Democratic Party elite has tried to shove Obama down our throats for many months now. In spite of this, Hillary Clinton is still fighting hard to protect this country against the most deceptive and divisive candidate in modern history. Dean, Pelosi, Kennedy, Kerry and the rest of the party establishment are going to get a big surprise in November, should Obama be the Democratic nominee, when he is soundly defeated by voters crossing over to McCain from their own party. We Democrats who will not sit idly by and let this dangerous wing of the party seize control will fight on, because we love our families and our country more than the Democratic Party, which is now only a shadow of the party of hope and promise it purports to represent.

[amanda85]

"We Democrats"

Riiiiiiight. Sounds as truthful as "we space aliens"...
Enough of GOP trolls!

[julescator]

What is "dangerous" about Obama - please explain. You too should vote against your interest and vote for McCain. Your being broke and and out of money will certainly teach those wealthy democrats a lesson lol lol. Vote against your self-interest - the GOP is counting on it as they laugh right into IRAN!

[hinnis]

See you in November

[who38]

The DNC has been solidly behind Hillary; give me a break. They are a Dem-lite organization. You sound like a Republican.

[Darsan54]

Are you watching the same campaign the rest of this reality is?

[hinnis]

Recent polls show that at least 28% of Hillary Clinton voters will not vote for Obama under any circumstances, and I believe that number will rise, as her supporters witness the treachery of the party elite. So, we'll see you in November.

[amanda85]

"Recent polls show that at least 28% of Hillary Clinton voters will not vote for Obama under any circumstances"

Would those be the polls you freepers just made up? No wonder you don't post any links. Hint: progressives aren't that gullible, nobody is buying your crap.

[KarateKid]

Obama supporters put their money where their mouths are. We are not empty suits like your side, and you, in particular.

[Kim445588]

If they are democrats, they will certainly come around just like Obama supporters would have to. When people start thinking about the importance of judge appointments, and even the cost of gas, they won't be bitter enough to screw themselves for at least 4 years.

[RThM]

Who cares. Many of them talk big in surveys but probably won't end up going to the polls anyway. They'll find some excuse that they're too angry to vote... Or whatever. These people will more than be replaced by real Democrats, moderate Republicans sick of Bush, independents yearning for change, and the million-vote drive. So see you in December. Or not. Obama wins either way.

[Nonamnesiac]

Although the ten reasons stated in Robert Creamer's post were all reasons Hillary lost, he left out the main reasons she will not be the Democratic nominee. She lost because she voted to invade Iraq, defended that vote until it was no longer politically feasible for her to do so and then lied about the reasons she voted to invade.

The second reason she lost is she was exposed numerous times of being an outright liar on major important matters.

It was hard for her to lose this nomination and her success in doing so given all she had going for her when it started -- the Clinton machine, a relatively unknown opponent, media acceptance and trumeting of her inevitability for a year -- shows she is unqualified to be President.

[BlackLeatherRain]

I disagree. If Obama hadn't been in this race, she'd have been able to secure the nomination despite poor judgement calls regarding Iraq and issues like Bankruptcy, etc.

She is formidable. For him to come out on top of her in this way is truly spectacular.

[Nonamnesiac]

I did not mean to minimize his brilliance and talent. I was not saying Creamer's stated reasons were not true. I was saying he left out what I considered to be the most important reasons that she was vulnerable, even to a politician as brilliant and talented as Obama.

[auntiecairo]

In the end I think Senator Clinton made the mistake alot of extremely intelligent people make - they underestimate the intelligence of others. Anyone who can count figured out there was no way Clinton had 35 years of experience; anyone over the age of 5 years old wouldn't forget getting shot at by snipers; and a vote for the war was a vote for the war. As an attorney Clinton learned you never admit a mistake; however in politics sometimes all people want to hear is just that. Nobody is perfect - and by trying to appear so she only undermined her credibility. Now with the very strong prospect of losing she's continuing to accrue a campaign debt and ask for money from the hard working people she purports to want to help. I don't think Clinton or her supporters should give up - she's still a Senator and will have 4 or 8 years to really make an impact instead of carefully constructing a bid for the Presidency. There's no reason she can't pursue universal healthcare and her other causes even if she's not the nominee --in fact I'm not sure why she's waiting 7 years this time.

[JMEB]

Great. And now let's all stop patting ourselves on our collective back and read:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1739251-2,00.html
Let's not fool ourselves - we as Democrats have our work cut out for us.

[hinnis]

The media, the DNC and the Democratic Party elite has tried to shove Obama down our throats for many months now. In spite of this, Hillary is still fighting hard to protect this country against the most deceptive and divisive candidate in modern history. Dean, Pelosi, Kennedy, Kerry and the rest of the party establishment are going to get a big surprise in November, should Obama be the Democratic nominee, when he is soundly defeated by voters crossing over to McCain from their own party. We Democrats who will not sit idly by and let this dangerous wing of the party seize control will fight on, because we love our families and our country more than the Democratic Party, which is now only a shadow of the party of hope and promise it purports to represent.

[amanda85]

Cut & paste GOP troll.

[ObserverinVancouver]

At the Y today I ran into my friend Bob, whom I had not seen since October. He is an American citizen who lives in Philadelphia but spends some time in Vancouver. I mentioned how happy I was with Sen. Obama. He leaned in toward me in a confiding sort of way and told me in a hoarse whisper that he is a Republican but he really likes Obama too. As I told him in my own hoarse whisper that I was happy to hear that I kept hearing in my mind's ear Sen. Obama's speeches where he mentions Republicans coming up and whispering that they support him and I thought: good heavens, that actually does happen to him pretty much the way he tells it. (Bob is an immigrant who is a scientist and businessman and not a dab hand at irony, so I tend to think he was not putting me on.)

[amanda85]

I'm also from BC, but my uncle is a US citizen who lives in WA with my aunt and their lovely daughter (we're both only children, about the same age and, despite the distance, we feel more like sisters than cousins.) Now, he is very liberal, the kind of American we progressive Canucks would wish the entire country were made of, but most of his co-workers are conservati­ve/republi­cans (it goes without saying that Washington state conservatives aren't the same as their Utah or Alabama counterparts...) He told me that many of them are actually considering voting for Obama over McCain or maybe not voting at all. It seems that the old man doesn't have too many fans in WA...

[abromber]

Yeah, I met a guy in O'Hare airport the other day. Heavy equipment mechanic, Iraq war vet. Maybe 26-28 years old. His business is gone to hell and he just bought a house but he's thinking of moving his family to Ireland for a couple of years. There's work there. Anyway, he told me he had never voted for a Democrat in his life, but he was gonna vote for Obama.

It's possible we could win this thing!

Obama '08

[RThM]

Heck. I keep saying that there must be a lot of missing moderate Republicans who are as embarassed and ashamed of Bush and the fiasco their party has become as the rest of us. That party can't possibly be only neo-cons, fundamentalist snake-handlers and Limbaughian dittoheads. There just have to be a few real Americans of the Republican persuasion left hiding out from that lunatic ensemble. They will vote rationally in the Fall. It might be as a protest reaction against George Bush.

[AmericanFool]

I'm Independent, ex-Republican (Bush and his cohorts were too much for me.) I'm voting Obama. My best friend is conservative & voted for Pres Bush in the last two elections. I was really surprised when he said, "It looks like Obama is the best choice out there." The other thing I've seen, and I hate to say it because it ticks people off.... but the smarter people I know are all leaning Obama. I'm 41 and Obama is the first candidate I've ever contributed to. Twice. I believe Hillary has run a dishonorable campaign - I'm not sure how folks write off the Naafta, Sniper Fire, Delegate count things. Hillary owns these mistakes, they belong to her and nobody else. Obama goofed on the bitter comment, but the rest of it is not him, it's his pastor, etc. His record is straightforward and reasonably consistent, but Hillary keeps claiming to have done more than she did, known more than she knew, or to have been against things she campaigned for with vigor. She's really smart, but she had this campaign wrapped up and let it fall apart. I don't understand how anyone can believe she'll be ready at 3am, or day one, when she wasn't ready for Iowa with a one year head start, and her chief strategist knew nothing of the delegate landscape. She claims intelligence, but Obama shows it - he does not need to brag.

[kilv]

She started as the fem-bot with very calculated and formulaic answers, until she flubbed up on the NY ID Card answer; then we got angry mommy and defensive; then we got sad (and implied working) mommy; then we got "one tough cookie;" then we got a sore winner (I to this day have no clue why never acknowledging Obama's victories [as if Bush's policy of saying something is true will make it so, and conversely by omission it is non-existant] was her policy); then we got experienced (and that was when she began lying about the Irish Peace and Bosnian Snipers) washingtonian; then we got inveterate veteran; then we got attack dog; then we got less sore, but slightly less clear winner; then we got virtual republican with mostly democratic policy points; and then we got a loser (who doesn't know she has all but lost). And as an educated male who is an independent voter, I still never felt as if she was really talking to me...?

Maybe it is because she hasn't been talking as herself?

As a former Ron Paul supporter, the question was always "Who is Ron Paul?"

It may be too late for her campaign now, but 'who is Hillary?'

Being a known quantity is not always a good thing, I guess.

[kilv]

#1 reason Hilary lost... Hillary is Hillary!

I was truly amazed as to how much grace, composure, face, status, and power the Clintons not only lost, but were willing to gamble (and lose) for her nomination to succeed. I hold a much lower opinion of (especially Bill) them now.

So much has been well said by so many about who Hillary has shown herself to be... One could argue that the message was simply not controlled because to endure the schedule, scrutiny, and madness she (and by default Obama, and to a lesser extent McCain) did or any candidate for President must would make a sane person mad. A developed sense of ego- and megalo- mania must be required to subject oneself to that job interview process, and one truly has to be quite extraordinary to pull it off and not lose one's mind.

[1PALady]

I am trying not to be negative to Hillary's supporters, but that's the kind of thing that bothers me. People should be for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women have always gotten screwed. Please give me a break, I do not think that any one has gotten screwed in this country anymore than Blacks and you do not hear Barack cry and whine about it. Actually, he has tried to stay away from those issues and the people that support him realize that, except for a few like Tavis Smiley.

It was a long hard fight, with 2 really good candidates, each special in their own right. The best person will win, and that's that! Please do not blame Senator Obama because he ran a better campaign.

[Veman]

Native Americans . . . you forgot Native Americans . . . they have definitely gotten screwed more than blacks.

[1PALady]

forgive me....:)

[who38]

Right on. But we have discovered the LAW.....and it works. See you in court.

[wearyvoter]

Has anyone factored in that some of us are tired of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. being passed back and forth between two families for the past two decades? I've been voting in presidential elections since 1976, and except for the Ford/Carter contest, I have yet to vote in an election that hasn't had a Bush or Clinton on the ballot. W has ruined the idea of political dynasties being a good thing, if they ever were.

[Skeptiqone]

I think #1 says it all. It's him! What a wonderful breath of fresh air. America needs and wants to look forward and UP! I can' t wait.

[julescator]

I agree with you. Everyone keeps coming up with quesitons as to what Hillary did wrong. Her biggest problem is Barack Obama. He is just better than she is and America knows it. Unfortunately, she did show an ugly side that I could have lived without. She pandered way too much for me and changed messages daily. she doesn't know who she is, he does. She is unsure of her message and has to change it - he is consistent. That is the take on the Clintons - they talk based on the polls!

[Truthortradition]

The only reason Obama is ahead of Clinton is because this is, and always has been, a man's world.
That's why women earn 23 percent less than a man in the same job on average in all professions in America.
That's why America has the highest incident of rape than any other country.
Women who voted for Obama instead of Hillary are just ignorant of the facts.
And it makes me sick.
I will NEVER forgive Obama for taking away the one chance women have had since American's birth to be equal to a man. HE will never get my vote, EVER.
Women are 51 percent of this population­---------w­e work just as hard as a man and we deserve equality--­----------­-NOW. But it's clear the only thing Obama cares about is making blacks top dogs on this earth. Once again, women will get screwed. Seems we always take a back seat.

[emmav70]

STOP with that victim mentality !

I am a woman and I don't need Hillary as a president to empower me.

I work hard and always get what I want !

I make as much money (if not more) as any man I know.

Remember Hillary in NH ? Tearing up ? If that's what you do every time some hurdle stands in your way, no wonder you're having problems on equality front.

Man up ! If you wonna be treated like one!

[OhMyGoodness]

You tell her emma...

I am a woman and I'm also an African American. I am proud to look at my black son AND my black daughter and can honestly say (without my fingers crossed behind my back) that they can be whomever they want to be.... even the President of the United States. I am proud of the fact that there was a woman (even though she appears to be bipolar) and a black man. I happen to believe that Obama's vision for America is most like my own.

So, for those women out here who believe that simply because she was a woman that she should have been handed the nomination think again. If you want to be treated as an equal then be equal and in this election she is not.

She hasn't been equal in terms of her message, fundraising ability, vision, or demeanor. I applaud Obama for what he has accomplished throughout his life, I applaud him for his calm under fire and that's why he has my vote.

[Readbetweentheelevens]

Clinton spoke the truth only 23 percent of the time, and she voted for an illegal war -- and was proud of her vote -- never backing away from it. That's why she lost.

If you consider the incidents of male on male rape in prisons, it rivals the numbers for male/female rape.

Women are 51% of the population, but they are not 51% of the elected delegates. Your candidate lost because of her message -- most people heard her message and rejected it.

She didn't lose because she was a women. She lost to a better candidate.

[carpediva]

how pathetic!
you'll never forgive him "for taking away the once chance woman had..." what, he was supposed to hand it to her? how about a woman earning it? he outworked her and she lost.
equality doesn't mean men refuse to compete to make sure that they don't "take it away" from some woman. i don't think Hillary Clinton would appreciate such a low bar of success: that her only chance would've been to compete against someone not as strong, - which is basically what you just said.
i'm a woman who proudly supports Obama, and i would love to see a woman in the White House IF she were the most qualified among the people running- and this time around, that is not Hillary, woman or not.
but here's a secret to make your head explode even more: even WITHOUT Obama i don't know if i would have supported Hillary. i want a woman too, but not just any woman, and frankly, there are many other better female choices available.
so for the last time: IT'S NOT MISOGYNY! IT'S CLINTONISM! which is totally fair game.

[Syco]

or maybe its because hes the better candidate?

[Kynn]

I know this may be hard for you. But, some people are voting for the person, regardless of the gender or race. They're voting for whom they think is the best person for the job.

And really, talking about sexism, and ending your remarks with a racist comment is just, well sickening.