Top 10 Reasons Obama Defeated Clinton for the Democratic Nomination

Now that the outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been settled beyond a reasonable doubt, it's worth looking systematically at the major factors that gave victory to Obama. After all, fifteen months ago, conventional wisdom viewed Obama as an audacious long shot. The very idea of a first-term African American senator with a name like Barack Obama defeating the vaunted Clinton machine seemed preposterous.

Here are my Top Ten reasons why lightning struck in the contest for the 2008 Democratic nomination (apologies to David Letterman ):

#10. Great Team. Obama assembled a great team that could work together. He stayed away from lobbyist insiders like Clinton's Mark Penn or McCain's Charlie Black, and choose political professionals who are committed to progressive values like David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes. From the first he insisted on one key rule: no drama. There was little of the infighting and division in the Obama operation that ate away at the Clinton campaign. Clinton had many capable staffers and consultants, but Penn's divisive leadership style and failures as a strategist doomed the campaign organization to dysfunction. When the brilliant Geoff Garin was tapped to succeed Penn as Chief Strategist in April, it was simply too late.

#9. All-State Strategy. Mark Penn was convinced that Clinton could sew up the nomination by Super Tuesday focusing only on the big states. In fact, some have reported that he mistakenly believed that California had a "winner take all" primary. Obama's team hunted for delegates in every nook and cranny of America - especially in the caucus states that Clinton really didn't contest. Obama ran an active, on-the-ground campaign in every contest, from California to Guam. As a consequence, as one anonymous Clinton insider reports, Clinton lost the nomination in February after Obama ran the table in 11 straight states.

#8. No Plan B. The Clinton campaign had no fall-back plan when it failed to capture the nomination on February 5. There was no money, no organization and no plan to contest the states that lie in the land beyond Super Tuesday.

#7. Excellence in Execution: Great Field. Obama ran the best field operation in American political history -- particularly in the all important Iowa Caucuses. His campaign left no stone unturned, or a vote on the table, in any state. It opened offices everywhere, hired and trained great staff, and managed through simple, streamlined structures. It would have been easy for Obama to squander the massive influx of volunteers who were mobilized through his inspirational message. But the campaign developed structures to integrate and effectively use volunteers, both on the ground and through the Internet. In particular, it developed highly sophisticated new Internet tools to allow volunteers around the country to participate meaningfully in voter ID and get out the vote operations.

#6. Explosive Obama Fundraising. Obama's ability to compete everywhere, to build great field structures and to out-communicate Clinton in the paid media rested squarely on the massive fundraising operation. Obama's traditional fundraising program ended up matching the vaunted Clinton fundraising machine. But the newly developed Internet operation provided a massive advantage. So far Obama has recruited over one-and-a-half-million donors. In other words, by the time the primary season ends, almost one of every ten Obama primary voters (so far there have been 16.3 million) will have made a financial contribution to his campaign. That is beyond unprecedented.

#5. Obama Out-Communicated Clinton Using One Consistent Message. Obama's message has been consistent from Day One. Clinton lurched from "experienced insider" to "populist outsider" from Margaret Thatcher-like "Iron Lady" to a "victim being bullied." And of course, Obama's huge small-donor-driven fundraising advantage gave him the ability to out-communicate her in the paid media - often by a factor of two-to-one.

#4. Hope and Inspiration trumped Fear and Anger. A core element of that Obama message has always been hope and inspiration. Early on, John Edwards hit an important cord of populist anger that is critical to any successful Democratic campaign. Right now especially, people want their leaders to be populist outsiders not "competent" insiders. But Edwards was unable to resolve that anger into hope. Obama touched the anger but also held out possibility. When Hillary "found her voice" as the fighting populist at the end of the campaign, she tapped into anger as well. She didn't hesitate to play the fear card -- both when it came to foreign policy, and by channeling the Republican frame that "elitist professional types" are trying to destroy your way of life. But she never managed to inspire and resolve that fear into hope.

Inspiration is the one political message that simultaneously persuades swing voters and motivates mobilizable voters who rarely come to the polls. The North Carolina landslide provided a striking example of how inspiration can generate massive mobilization at the same time it appeals to independent swing voters.

#3. Unity Trumped Division. Obama showed that appeals to division - whether from elements that stirred up fear that a "black candidate couldn't win" - or from his former pastor - could be overcome by America's overwhelming hunger for unity. Americans - and particularly young Americans - are sick of Republican appeals based on the things that divide us, particularly race. It isn't 1988 anymore. A whole generation has passed from the scene and been replaced by young people who simply don't get the passions that allowed the fear of "Willie Horton" to decide the 1988 presidential race.

#2. Change Trumped Experience. Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn's fundamental strategic error was to position Clinton as the "Experience" candidate, when America desperately wanted change. Eighty percent of the voters think America is on the wrong track. They want change in general - and most importantly, they want change in the way special interests dominate Washington. Mark Penn, the consummate lobbyist-insider himself embodied the very thing people believe is wrong in Washington. It's no wonder he made this catastrophic strategic blunder.

#1. Obama is an Extraordinary Candidate. Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer, his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any campaign manager would want in any year. But he is perfect for this year. While the Clintons represented the Bridge to the 21st Century, Obama is the 21st century. His own, multi-cultural story is the future of America. As the campaign tested him, he showed he was cool, deliberate and effective under fire.

In the end, people vote for people. Campaigns are ultimately about the qualities of candidates --about whether or not people want them to be their leaders. Potentially, Barack Obama could become an historic, transformational leader. But John McCain has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as well. Nothing is preordained. Now it will be up to every Democrat, every Progressive, to take advantage of this historic opportunity to make Barack Obama the American President who leads the world into a new progressive era of unprecedented possibility.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com

Comments

[RRonin]

HuffPost's Pick

It's not about the color of his skin, it's the content of his character.

[Grunty1]

As it is with McCain, which is why he will run a vile and stumbling campaign.

[DCCommuter]

Thank you RRonin. I agree. However, I know the Republicans will not only demand he denounce Rev Wright, Obama will also be asked to denounce O.J., Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Willie Horton, Super Fly, Chris Rock, Michael Jackson, The Big Bad Wolf, King Kong, Sportin' Life, Ice Cube, and Ice Tea. Then, after he has denounced every brown-hued male that ever existed--they will say he is an Elite. I bet McCain will NOT be asked to denounce Jeffery Dahmer or Larry the Cable Guy. He will not have to denounce anyone! ... I have to say, all of the white people who are for Obama has really made me feel that Martin Luther's King dream of being judged on character alone is possible! I am so glad that we have a candidate that is bringing people together. RACE IS A SOCIAL CONSTRUCT, PEOPLE. When I am in America I am black, then when I go to Africa they think I am white. THE WHOLE THING IS RIDICULOUS! CAN WE MOVE ON FROM ALL THIS RACIAL CATEGORIES. I remember when I was a kid--in the "record store" (yes, I am that old) the records were categorized in "Soul" and "Rock" which was another way of separating as "Colored" and "White." The Bee Gees were "rock" (no way) and Earth Wind and Fire were "soul". SEE HOW DUMB THAT IS!! WOW RRONIN! YOU HAVE REALLY GOT ME DOWN ON THE PSYCHOANALYTIC COUCH!

[KELLI2L]

Just remember - you are the owner of your vote and if you don't want Obama, don't vote for him just to save the Democratic Party (who has not been very democratic through this whole process) - and they are not worth saving at this point anyway, in my opinion. . . . . .

[StillIRise]

Is the country worth saving? What about our troops in Iraq?

As an American, and as a Democrat, it seems that you would be invested enough in the values of our Party and in the future of our country to put aside your personal feelings toward either Hillary or Obama in this important election, both of whom represent the Democratic ideals that we all share. Apparently, you're just in this for your own self-gratification, and that's unfortunate.

[julescator]

I think the argument goes past the superficial and onto the issues. If you vote based on psychology and other non-issues stuff then you will once again vote against your self-interest. the clintons are well versed in how to set you up enough to forget the isseus. the next time you go to the gas station, or look at your pay check or your food bill AND the nubmer of dead from this war based on a lie, I think it will be quite obvious how you should vote. Get over the small stuff - you have to live with a bad decision for 4 years. we have done that for 8 years being "scared" by the GOP and we won't make that mistake again - I hope.

[KELLI2L]

My Top 10 Reasons Obama Beat Clinton:
< Bias News Media
< Bias DNC
< Bias New Media
< Bias DNC
< Bias News Media
< Bias DNC
< Bias News Media
< Bias DNC
< Bias News Media
< Bias DNC

[TexasCrat]

Kudos to all of the above!

Someone needed to stop sniper fire Sally!!

[Grunty1]

Any proof of such bias?

[blytzd]

As evidenced by the Wright "scandal"

[Syco]

so that why hes being accused of being a terrorist

[nypoet22]

obama wins mainly on personality. you can break it down eighteen different ways to sunday if you want, but at the core of it all, people just like him better. as for hillary, she's a tough campaigner, a shrewd legislator, a vicious attack dog, a lightning rod for right-wing attacks, resilient as anyone ever, and able to adapt her message and image to any situation. all these qualities that made hillary an imperfect candidate for president would make her an excellent candidate for vp. so screw it all, i say they're just blowing smoke right now. they'll kiss and make up.

Obama/Clinton '08

[TRYKER]

Yep, she sounds like a direct replacement of Dick Cheney whom we all know as the real president, just like Hillary is planning on being if she gets the VP slot...OVER OUR DEAD BODIES.

[nypoet22]

you can say what you want about dick cheney, and of course i think he's awful too. but you must concede, he has been devastatingly effective at achieving his goals. With that in mind, is it really such a bad idea to sic hillary on the health insurance industry?

[durdysouth]

Tomorrow the media will be all pumped up about the clinton win in WV. That she now has the momentum. And still have a chance to win the nomination. Even a landslide victory will only net her 18 delegates. Barack Obama has gotten that many Super delegates in the past week. She should beg for money after this win tomorrow to pay down the $20+ million her camapaign owes. I will have to really think hard about another contribution to Obama to pay of hillarys campaign debt.

[Syco]

no they won't they don't care at this point

[DanniD]

Wonderful evaluation Mr. Creamer!

If I may, I'd just like to add my # 1 reason that Obama defeated Clinton. Clinton came into this campaign with a sense of entitlement that frankly, disturbed me! She presented herself not as a candidate that was trying to win the nomination but as a candidate that had already won the nomination and was just going through this process to appease voters. That is until the great state of Iowa's voters gave her a hard reality check but even then to me, she continued on as though the nomination was already hers.

It wasn't until after Super Tuesday, did I notice, she began realizing that she was going to have to actually work for the nomination. Unfortunately for her, her work ethic was just too deplorable!

[emmav70]

Remember Hillary and her "here comes the fun part" ?

How condescending was that !

[verlaine]

Obama has integrity, personality, authenticity, humility, and gravitas. Hillary is the antithesis of integrity, personality, authenticity, humility, and gravitas.

[markar402]

the problem is even Obama refuses to say he has won it yet. I can't believe the stupidity of the remaining uncommited superdelegates of letting this thing continue, so Hillary can have a huge win in WV and KY which will fuel her delusional assertions she is the only one who can beat McCain. Indicative of the useless, limp-noodled leadership of the Democratic Party.

[StillIRise]

Hillary's win in West Virginia and Kentucky will give her a gracious exit from the campaign, in which she will be able to concede on a high note. I believe that after the election tomorrow, in spite Hillary's win, the super delegates will begin committing to Senator Obama, who is now the presumed nominee. The elections tomorrow will not change this.

As much as I've detested Clinton's campaign kitchen sink and race-baiting strategies, she's fought a hard battle, much of it uphill, and she not only has every right to stay in the race, but every right to leave this contest in the best way possible. It will not only be good for her, but it will be good for the Democratic Party, and hopefully, the healing can begin and we can unite to defeat the Republicans and Senator McCain.

[Irons]

11. Hillary is a panderer.

[txbyrd]

Very nice.
I still remained stunned at her campaign. Early in the process, she was my choice for President. I watched with confusion her varied twists and turns and spins.
In general, I felt all of these were the ultimate insult to the American voter. "Found my Voice," the shabby race card, the gas-tax holiday, and, dear lord, the shot of whiskey. Divisive and insulting.

Sorry, I dont' want a President who thinks Americans are that stupid.

Her failures are as responsible as Obama's successes.

[KELLI2L]

What's wrong with you people? The media made these comments - first - about mostly blacks going for Obama and they even had the nerve to say that Obama's followers were richer and Hillary's were poorer - What a terrible insult and NOT TRUE anyway, since most black people are NOT rich.
- The medias comments to this affect were stupid and callous.
- So don't pick on Hillary for only repeating one faction of the racist and callous comments we have heard from the media . . . . .

[LBM]

"Now that the outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been settled beyond a reasonable doubt"

Now who is living in a world of denial? The nomination is not settled, there are still votes being cast. Tomorrow your presumed nominee will be defeated by huge double digits by Clinton, who supposedly ran such a terrible campaign. How do you explain that then? Where are your top 10 reasons why Obama can't win West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and is having trouble convincing half of the democratic party to vote for him in November?

[KarlRoves3rdchin]

"I'm Hilliary Clinton and I approved this ad"

[dbdzen]

LBM:
One of the reasons Clinton fell behind was Penn's poor math on California and it seems that sense of stubbornness with the numbers stayed with many of her supporters. After next Tuesday, Hillary could win 100% of the Puerto Rico ballot and still be behind Obama in the delegate count.

Why?
Because when a number y is greater than half of x, no amount of political spin can make x-y greater than y. It does not compute.

He's caught up on the other number, superdelegates.
Even if you add Florida and HIllary's North Korean-style "fair" ballot in Michigan, he's still ahead.

How in the world are you calculating this "close contest"?

You should have been Hillary's finance manager.

[LBM]

This isn't about who has the most pledged delegates. It doesn't matter if he has one more than half. This is absolutely no different from the situation before PA. She can still win with super delegates, just like he can. Supers don't have to choose on any metric other than who they want to vote for, just like they've done all along in this contest. The only victor will be the one who gets to the amount of total delegates needed for the nomination and before that happens, in this race, it could go either way.

[MM5]

"Tomorrow your presumed nominee will be defeated by huge double digits by Clinton, who supposedly ran such a terrible campaign. How do you explain that then?"

Nothing one can do about "uneducated" whites. Polite term for racists.

Sorry...the nomination is settled...a bunch of hick votes in WV and KY is not going to bring back Hillary's candidacy(although I am sure she will try to spin the wins tomorrow).

[LBM]

Do you seriously believe that every white person without a college education is a racist? That is a very uneducated belief. I know several white people who did not complete college and they are no more racist than Obama himself. The racist vote has been estimated at about 7-15% across all demographics. I know plenty of wealthy, educated racists.

[era996]

And how about 10 reasons Obama cannot win a big states like NY.NJ, MA,CA,FL,MI,OH,TX
And One big reason Obama will be trounced in November: INEXPERIENCED

[SpectCon]

You only need one reason he didn't win in big states. Machine politics.

As for your asinine argument about Democratic primaries equating to the general election, you'll notice a Democrat won every Democratic contest in every state. Does that mean Democrats will necessarily win every state?

Obama will do fine in the big states. They had massive new voter registration, lots of interest in the campaign, and the political machines will be working for Obama this time.

Tell me how McCain stops, working class whites, unions, African American voters, the youth vote and the social security voters? I'll tell you how, he can't. Obama is unbeatable. He's our best candidate in a generation (or two).

[DanniD]

As a Michigan voter, I can tell exactly why he didn't win Michigan. HE NAME WASN'T ON THE FREAKING BALLOT AND HE DID NOT CAMPAIGN HERE!

She loves to harp on Michigan voters being disenfranchised but if anyone disenfranchised us, it was her because she lacked the integrity to honor her agreed upon stance of not being on the ballot, for her own underhanded, selfish purpose!

[V4Vigilance]

It's said that the band on the Titanic continued to play, even after it was obvious that the ship was going down. I'm curious, what instrument do you play?

OBAMA/RICHARDSON 08

[ObserverinVancouver]

Ouch. Richardson for VP!

[andyhoff]

One of Hillary's huge weaknesses is her propensity to take positions according to what she thinks the voters want to hear. Unfortunately, it makes her look unprincipled. People have called this the "weather vane" or "triangulation". Case in point: the Iraq War. She knew her vote was wrong, and I believe she chose career over what she truly believed. If she had voted the right way, she could have reaped the benefits down the road and be able to say "I told you so", like Barack was able to. Other cases: the gas tax, the Iran comment.

[KELLI2L]

But Obama does the same darn thing - he changes his tune according to his audience's wants. What's the difference? However, his advisors admitted that he is only talking politics to get elected and won't necessarily supply the goods upon election.

[who38]

Obama just has a better ear.

[StillIRise]

Examples?

[kellygrrrl]

truly Exceptional!!!
the team and execution of gameplan has been impressive.

just as the flaws and disorganization and infighting and lack of plan and fiscal irresponsibility of Team Clinton has been shocking!

[Poohnc]

The title is misleading - Hillary keeps on fighting for the working people.

Tomorrow voters in West Virginia will demonstrate, once again, that elitist ultra-rich Obama is not electable.

Hillary 08.

[kevinmcd]

The article is right on point-except I honestly don't think his wife is beautiful at all. I saw her live also, and she annoyed me. She lacks his ability to communicate. I suppose she may be a good balance to his idealism, but I found her to be a downer and her message was confused and not well thought out or explained.

[Henk]

I've seen her as well. She was funny, articulate and an great speaker. Actually I saw her speak before I saw him, because at the time I was an Edwards supporter and not following his campaign very closely. I liked her a lot more than I liked him.