Top 10 Reasons Obama Defeated Clinton for the Democratic Nomination

Now that the outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been settled beyond a reasonable doubt, it's worth looking systematically at the major factors that gave victory to Obama. After all, fifteen months ago, conventional wisdom viewed Obama as an audacious long shot. The very idea of a first-term African American senator with a name like Barack Obama defeating the vaunted Clinton machine seemed preposterous.

Here are my Top Ten reasons why lightning struck in the contest for the 2008 Democratic nomination (apologies to David Letterman ):

#10. Great Team. Obama assembled a great team that could work together. He stayed away from lobbyist insiders like Clinton's Mark Penn or McCain's Charlie Black, and choose political professionals who are committed to progressive values like David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes. From the first he insisted on one key rule: no drama. There was little of the infighting and division in the Obama operation that ate away at the Clinton campaign. Clinton had many capable staffers and consultants, but Penn's divisive leadership style and failures as a strategist doomed the campaign organization to dysfunction. When the brilliant Geoff Garin was tapped to succeed Penn as Chief Strategist in April, it was simply too late.

#9. All-State Strategy. Mark Penn was convinced that Clinton could sew up the nomination by Super Tuesday focusing only on the big states. In fact, some have reported that he mistakenly believed that California had a "winner take all" primary. Obama's team hunted for delegates in every nook and cranny of America - especially in the caucus states that Clinton really didn't contest. Obama ran an active, on-the-ground campaign in every contest, from California to Guam. As a consequence, as one anonymous Clinton insider reports, Clinton lost the nomination in February after Obama ran the table in 11 straight states.

#8. No Plan B. The Clinton campaign had no fall-back plan when it failed to capture the nomination on February 5. There was no money, no organization and no plan to contest the states that lie in the land beyond Super Tuesday.

#7. Excellence in Execution: Great Field. Obama ran the best field operation in American political history -- particularly in the all important Iowa Caucuses. His campaign left no stone unturned, or a vote on the table, in any state. It opened offices everywhere, hired and trained great staff, and managed through simple, streamlined structures. It would have been easy for Obama to squander the massive influx of volunteers who were mobilized through his inspirational message. But the campaign developed structures to integrate and effectively use volunteers, both on the ground and through the Internet. In particular, it developed highly sophisticated new Internet tools to allow volunteers around the country to participate meaningfully in voter ID and get out the vote operations.

#6. Explosive Obama Fundraising. Obama's ability to compete everywhere, to build great field structures and to out-communicate Clinton in the paid media rested squarely on the massive fundraising operation. Obama's traditional fundraising program ended up matching the vaunted Clinton fundraising machine. But the newly developed Internet operation provided a massive advantage. So far Obama has recruited over one-and-a-half-million donors. In other words, by the time the primary season ends, almost one of every ten Obama primary voters (so far there have been 16.3 million) will have made a financial contribution to his campaign. That is beyond unprecedented.

#5. Obama Out-Communicated Clinton Using One Consistent Message. Obama's message has been consistent from Day One. Clinton lurched from "experienced insider" to "populist outsider" from Margaret Thatcher-like "Iron Lady" to a "victim being bullied." And of course, Obama's huge small-donor-driven fundraising advantage gave him the ability to out-communicate her in the paid media - often by a factor of two-to-one.

#4. Hope and Inspiration trumped Fear and Anger. A core element of that Obama message has always been hope and inspiration. Early on, John Edwards hit an important cord of populist anger that is critical to any successful Democratic campaign. Right now especially, people want their leaders to be populist outsiders not "competent" insiders. But Edwards was unable to resolve that anger into hope. Obama touched the anger but also held out possibility. When Hillary "found her voice" as the fighting populist at the end of the campaign, she tapped into anger as well. She didn't hesitate to play the fear card -- both when it came to foreign policy, and by channeling the Republican frame that "elitist professional types" are trying to destroy your way of life. But she never managed to inspire and resolve that fear into hope.

Inspiration is the one political message that simultaneously persuades swing voters and motivates mobilizable voters who rarely come to the polls. The North Carolina landslide provided a striking example of how inspiration can generate massive mobilization at the same time it appeals to independent swing voters.

#3. Unity Trumped Division. Obama showed that appeals to division - whether from elements that stirred up fear that a "black candidate couldn't win" - or from his former pastor - could be overcome by America's overwhelming hunger for unity. Americans - and particularly young Americans - are sick of Republican appeals based on the things that divide us, particularly race. It isn't 1988 anymore. A whole generation has passed from the scene and been replaced by young people who simply don't get the passions that allowed the fear of "Willie Horton" to decide the 1988 presidential race.

#2. Change Trumped Experience. Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn's fundamental strategic error was to position Clinton as the "Experience" candidate, when America desperately wanted change. Eighty percent of the voters think America is on the wrong track. They want change in general - and most importantly, they want change in the way special interests dominate Washington. Mark Penn, the consummate lobbyist-insider himself embodied the very thing people believe is wrong in Washington. It's no wonder he made this catastrophic strategic blunder.

#1. Obama is an Extraordinary Candidate. Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer, his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any campaign manager would want in any year. But he is perfect for this year. While the Clintons represented the Bridge to the 21st Century, Obama is the 21st century. His own, multi-cultural story is the future of America. As the campaign tested him, he showed he was cool, deliberate and effective under fire.

In the end, people vote for people. Campaigns are ultimately about the qualities of candidates --about whether or not people want them to be their leaders. Potentially, Barack Obama could become an historic, transformational leader. But John McCain has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as well. Nothing is preordained. Now it will be up to every Democrat, every Progressive, to take advantage of this historic opportunity to make Barack Obama the American President who leads the world into a new progressive era of unprecedented possibility.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com

Comments

[kellygrrrl]

"Leave Your Ego at the Door"

every politician should build a team around that one sentiment.

[BubbaC33]

Obama ran a campaign inspired by Karl Rove. He called Ms. Clinton a liar over honest remarks she had made about her health care plan. He did so to cover the lies he was telling about his health care plan. He attacked her for racist comments she had not made. He attacked President Clinton for racist remarks he did not make. Again, a Rove inspired campaign. Obama got a pass from the MSM while Ms. Clinton was attacked for things she never said, much like the treatment received by Al Gore in 2000. These are just two examples of the many instances of Rove-like campaign tactics of the Obama campaign.
Obama has alienated the center of the Democratic Party, He has insulted older voters. His campiagn has insulted people without a college education. His supporters have insulted anyone not worshipping at the Obama altar. He may have won the nomination, but he is making it tough on himself to win the general election.

[SpectCon]

I thought he wasn't tough enough for you Clinton supporters. I thought you all wanted a fighter. Well, he managed to kick the snot out of the Clinton machine....in the Democratic primaries no less. Obama is a force to be reckoned with. You don't take down the Clinton operation as decisively as he did and not have some serious political mojo.

[yhgtup]

You Said It! Barack beat the Clinton Machine fair & square. They underestimated Barack. When the media was hypeing "why can't Obama close the deal"? They should have been asking, "how come the Clinton Machine is having so many problems with this young, unknown, inexperienced, first term senator, community-­organizer, who came from nowhere"? Barack even said months ago, that he would support the decision by the DNC concerning MI and FL. He doesn't need MI and FL. Hillary supporters who want to "get back" at Barack by voting for McCain, are doing themselves and their families a disservice.

[RThM]

Your comments are a good example of why Clinton lost.

[TexasCrat]

I would love to have direct quotes where he insulted older people and people without a college education.

Hillary Clinton lied about her own health plan. She said it doesn't have mandates when it does.

Clinton was attacked for things she never said? Like what, when?

Get off the pro-Clinton websites and find out what's really going on. That's the best advice I can give you.

[StillIRise]

Obama did not attack anyone over alleged racist remarks. In fact, in response to the remarks that the media characterized as racist, Obama clearly said that he did not think race was a factor.

If you call a relentless barrage of 24/7 coverage of Reverend Wright for two months a pass, then perhaps we have a different understanding of what a "pass" is.

Clinton lied about Bosnia. She lied or exaggerated about her experience as First Lady. Her campaign sent emails out lying about Obama's position on abortion. These are just a few examples of things she was attacked for that actually came from her own mouth or her own campaign.

The white "blue-collar" voters who will never vote for a black man are not the center of the Democratic Party.

I am an older voter, and Senator Obama has done nothing to insult me.

His supporters on this blogsite may insult people w/o a college education, and both the media and Hillary have made comments that one may find offensive, but neither Obama nor his campaign have said anything insulting about those w/o a college degree. In fact, it was Senator Clinton's campaign that publicly said that Obama's supporters are "eggheads," and Clinton herself who called us "delusional" ... pretty insulting, wouldn't you say?

He will win the general election.

[KELLI2L]

To StillIRise: The media admits they gave Obama at least a four month pass. You don't know your facts - maybe you don't watch enough news. Obama supporters do seem delusional, IMO.

[utd]

Ya for opposite day.

[DaisyMiller]

#11 - overestimated the intelligence of Obama supporters. I spoke with one yesterday: a life long Republican. She is voting for Obama because ..... hold onto your seat .... because he is so cute!
She says "I know he's a bit of a socialist, but I just love to look at him. I just kind of like it - it's like a rock star thing."

So there you go for #11. Hillary didn't think people would be so stupid as to vote for a "cute" action figure/rock star. Hillary thought people think. Wrong!

[ClevelandTom]

Obviously you are a Republican. Only a Republican would extrapolate the opinion of a single voter to about 20 million others.

[stubbhead]

Hillary seems to be using people's ignorance to her advantage.

[who38]

Of course people don't think, yahoo. How do you imagine that Bush got elected TWICE?

[SpectCon]

This is nonsense, HIllary went after every toothless hillbilly she could get to the polls with her pandering. That's the now refuted Mark Penn strategy of microtrends. You poll and test messages for every group you can define and you pander to them. She's still doing it. Hillary the hunter??? How many home states did she claim?

Ultimately it does help to be likable, no denying that. But don't call us stupid because we think he's the best Dem candidate since Bobby Kennedy. He's calm, intelligent, doesn't play upon fear and isn't interested in dividing everyone.

I know, like every Clinton supporter, you're afraid. Fear is what the Clinton campaign has left in the tank. Thankfully, the country is sick and tired of being scared by leaders and would rather be inspired. Remember Bill in 1992...HOPE? Bill had it right in 92, stay positive.

[RThM]

That is such a cute story. Obviously Hillary ran a far superior campaign except for her own incompetence. Go figure.

[HopeandChange]

When asked about Jimmy Carter's meeting with Hamas, and Obama's response was, "I'm just going to eat my waffle."

This guy is going to be a disaster!

[stubbhead]

Yes. Like his campaign has been. Perhaps he should have said, "I'll obliterate 'em."

[SaltySaltillo]

Yeah, a disaster for the status quo!

[who38]

What should he have said? This is a free country; Carter can meet with whomever he chooses. Obama knows when to deflect dumb questions. He's learned since that "flag pin" incident.

[HopeandChange]

What is Obama's stance on Israel? That is a simple question that he avoids.

[Mike O.]

Actually, you cannot meet with whomever you choose. There are laws against treason on the books. Carter was given a very gracious pass. A pass that did not have to be given.

[SpectCon]

And what was so wrong with not taking a firm stand? Why should an American President pick sides if we hope to broker any peace settlement. You wanted him to bash Carter? Or support Carter and give McCain ammo claiming he's an anti-semite?

Are you one those people who say Israel is always right?

[yabu]

Don't worry. Hillary has already been a disaster. At least Obama will be a new type of disaster.

[desertson]

As a HC supporter who plans to do everything in my power to get BO elected president, I would move number ten up to number one and insert a new number two....Bill.

[who38]

Actually, I would have chosen Bill as number one through seven.

[MM5]

Thank you! What a refreshing change from what many HC supporters are saying on the blogs.

We cannot afford to have McCain and I say that as a conservative - I oppose the war and so I do not want to see McCain win. I support Obama because I believe his message of changing the way politics is applied in this country - I believe it because he has already implemented that in his campaign. People may have issues with his policies and the fact that he has not been in politics for decades, but they cannot point to any time in this campaign where he initiated a personal attack on any of his opponents. He will be a great president.

[RButler]

Clinton supporters. How about emailing MSNBC and telling them that if Hillary drops out you will no longer be watching their wonderful channel. What's the the point? To watch Chris ass kiss Obama and McCain. No thanks.

[Pammy1151]

Perfect ticket Obama/Hagel. Think about it.

[GoCards1978]

You got that right.

[who38]

Isn't Hagel a strong opponent of pro-choice? Wouldn't want him to appoint a SCOTUS.

[riverhouse]

One thing I'd add is the memory of the Clinton history in the White House. It was one sleazy scandal after the other, day after day. The thought of returning to those chaotic and divisive days of special prosecutors and grand juries, depositions and lawsuits id numbing. It was fatiguing, it was defeating, and no one in their right mind would want to return to those sorry days of yesteryear.

[desertson]

My only response is that all those "scandals" were manufactured, promoted and paid for by the Republican Party. Very little merit to any of them, but they it certainly had their effect of irreparably damaging the Clinton Presidency and anything that came afterwards.

Those Repugnants think so strategically!

[ClevelandTom]

During the Clinton admin, we saw a lot of competence but also far more drama than we like. With Bush we saw little drama but glaring incompetence. I think we're all just looking for minimum drama and maxmum competence this time around.

[who38]

Great post.

[Kynn]

Eh, during Clinton we saw drama based on soap opera junk.

During Bush we saw drama based on the people being in charge being psychotic.

[SanityNowPlease]

not unlike her campaign

[BarbGiano]

The Clinton Campaign was one of the worse ever. Even Bill Clinton said he was appalled how badly it was. Clinton talked about Obama not having experience, yet her own campaign was not impressive by someone who brags about 35 years of experience. If she ran the country like she did her campaign, the USA would be in worse shape than ever. On the other hand, if Obama runs the country like he did his campaign, we will see good changes. I'm hopeful.

[easyrider1969]

#11a: His last name isn't "Clinton".

[copernikus]

Agree 100% Brb. She talked on one of the debates about how being POTUS is like being a CEO, but as CEO of her campaign, she was an abject failure. I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one that made this link.

[SpectCon]

Hillary didn't run a bad campaign, Obama ran an excellent one. Yes, the anointed Queen is just a Senator, but it wasn't easy. The Clinton machine's defeat is the biggest sea change in American politics since Reagan won the White House. For all these people saying the media is bed with Obama, you have to remember they let her go on for 2 1/2 months after she was no longer viable. Do you honestly think they would have let Obama go on if he had lost 11 in row>?

[johnnygoodwud]

may i add my reason #11, character and judement. hillary surrounded herself with loyal followers, not the best qualified people, just the most loyal. bad judgement. charcter: obama on a number of occassions, admitted making a mistake ie. rezko, 'I made a boneheaded mistake'. has anyone EVER heard hillary admit she was wrong, or apologize for a comment made? no, she has very poor character.

[2liveNdie]

There was a report where they said how for the last 16 years or so the Clinton's have been positioning themselves as the party elders and placing supporters in place to benefit them in times of election! With all the people they put in place and they still lost to a freshman senator speaks volume about the change we the people truly want!

The Clinton's are OLD news and so is the way VOTERS will look at the future!

[sebocd]

Someone empowered Barack Obama is his first year of life, his infancy, in a manner and degree that few are empowered. Beginning with non verbal communication someone re-enforced the notion that he was omnipotent and the greatest. When the time came to be pushed out of the garden he realized
that specialness was a secret shared just by the two of them. Not that the secret wasn't true but no one else had the receivers to capture what had resonated between the two of them. Even before he understood what the words meant the sound of them and her face must has touched off some heavy spastic ectstasy. You can almost hear her saying. "Oh yes you can. Yes you can!"

[jsomerville5]

Sebocd- I agree with you. Take a look at Obama's childhood pictures alongside his mother, sister and grandparents. He stands out front and center. They're allowing him to "lead" in the picture,as a young kid. He overshadows them all even at ten years old !

[EFC]

Reason #11: Hillary Clinton and her campaign validated just about every
negative stereotype that had been created around her since she first appeared
on the political scene. Never mind how competitive she is among Democratic
primary voters, her negative ratings among the general electorate make her,
not Obama, a more difficult sell in a general election.

[Photofarm]

Just say it, the Republicans were right about the Clinton's.

[kimbari]

The Republicans were right about the Clintons...

and not much else.

[journey80]

Great column - one quibble. You're going heavy on Mark Penn, which is fine with me; but don't leave out Hillary.

Mark Penn ran Bill's 1996 campaign and Hillary's Senate campaigns. Penn is Hillary's longtime chief strategist and he works for her. The choices Mark Penn made were her choices.

Blaming Penn without blaming the Clintons for this disastrous campaign simply doesn't make any sense. We have seen who the Clintons are, and how they think. All the Clinton schtick in the world isn't going to erase the memory of the destructive cornered-rat mentality behind this campaign. Don't ever make the mistake of thinking that mentality belongs exclusively to Mark Penn. It belongs to Hillary Clinton.

[DennyCrane]

This list also does a good job of showing why Hillary Clinton would make an awful President. She's demonstrated that she can't surround herself with good, competent people. She can't seem to manage money. She doesn't plan for the unexpected. She's inconsistent. And she doesn't inspire. Not exactly the kind of person you'd want in The White House.

[yabu]

Well, Hillary can kiss my ass but just because someone cannot surround himself or herself with
"competent political hacks" he/she can surround himself/herself with competent policymakers.
Gore for example did just that. But unlike Gore Hillary doesn't hate politics so in her case the situation is more perplexing.