Ever since the Court handed President Obama's Justice Department a big victory by enjoining the enforcement of major provisions of the onerous Arizona "papers please" immigration law, there has been pundit commentary that the decision will be bad for swing Democrats.
Of course, that analysis ignores that the ruling came from a judge who -- though appointed by President Clinton -- was originally nominated by Arizona's Republican Senator Kyl who has praised her as a fair jurist. And the decision will also likely cause a number of moderate supporters of the bill around the country to rethink their positions.
But there are two major reasons why that that kind of knee-jerk response is just plain wrong:
Reason # 1: The polling on this issue is very clear. The position a candidate takes on the Arizona lawsuit appears to affect the voting decisions of only one group: Latino voters.
The passage of the Arizona "papers, please" anti-immigration law has forced Republican politicians around the country into a political box canyon that does not offer an easy escape. For fear of offending the emergent Tea Party -- and other anti-immigrant zealots in their own base -- they are precipitating a massive realignment of Latino voters nationwide.
According to data released a month ago by Public Policy Polling (PPP), Texas Governor Rick Perry lost his early lead over Democratic challenger Bill White and the race is now tied. The movement from a previous PPP poll in February comes entirely from Hispanic voters. PPP reports that:
"With white voters Perry led 54-36 then and leads 55-35 now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and 70 -7 now. But with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 to trailing 55-21....there is no doubt the (Arizona) immigration bill is popular nationally. But if it causes Hispanics to change their voting behavior without a parallel shift among whites then it's going to end up playing to Democratic advantage this fall."
The punditry sometimes forgets that in politics, intensity is often just as important as poll percentages. For many Hispanic voters, the Arizona immigration law is an insult. It is an attack on their very identity. And it is certainly a litmus test that tells a Hispanic voter whether or not a political candidate is on their side -- the critical threshold test of voter decision-making.
The same is simply not true for non-Hispanic voters. As a result, by allowing the Party to be defined by the anti-immigrant zealots -- and refusing to lift a finger to pass comprehensive immigration reform in Congress -- the Republicans are playing with political fire.
Polling show similar dips in support among Latino voters for Republican candidates in California and Colorado -- and a whopping drop in support for the Republican Senate candidate in Nevada.
Polls show that voter decisions among persuadable voters in swing districts without large Hispanic populations will be determined by questions about the qualities of individual candidates, and whether or not voters can be convinced to hand the keys back to the gang who just two years ago wrecked the economy.
Remember all the Tea Party and anti-immigrant activists are not persuadable voters. Democrats were never going to get any of their support. For persuadable voters, immigration will not define candidate choices among voters who are not Hispanic.
Reason #2. Completely apart from the impact the Arizona law has on persuadable voters, it will have an energizing effect on mobilizable Hispanic voters -- voters who would vote Democratic but are unlikely to vote unless they are mobilized.
Until the Arizona law came along, may Hispanic voters were demoralized by the difficulty of passing promised comprehensive immigration reform.
The passage of the Arizona law changed the equation. On a party line vote, Republicans did something in Arizona that was a fundamental assault on the Latino community. Republicans across America have endorsed it. But what is just as important, the Democratic President took up the battle to defend the community -- and just won a major victory.
The Arizona law is far from dead. A full trial on the merits of the law remains. But in enjoining its application, the judge found the Obama Administration is likely to win on the merits with respect to the unconstitutionality of key sections.
The anger of the Latino community at Republicans, coupled with the sense of empowerment that they -- and the President -- could take on the law and win -- will certainly energize Hispanic voter turnout this fall.
But you say, this election is about swing districts and there aren't many Latino's in swing districts. Think again. An analysis of the major swing districts -- known in Democratic Party parlance as Frontline Districts (with Democratic incumbents) and Red to Blue districts (with Republican incumbents) shows the following:
House
Senate
The impact of the Hispanic vote will be particularly pronounced in swing Senate states such as Nevada, California, Illinois, Colorado and Florida. It will have an impact in Connecticut, Ohio and even Indiana and North Carolina..
Bottom line is clear. On balance, the Arizona law suit -- and the Obama legal victory -- is good news for Democrats.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
Rev. Jennifer Kottler: The Immigration Fight Isn't Over
Rabbi Eric H. Yoffie: Religion Can Save America. Case In Point -- Immigration Reform
It's so easy to discover the truth these days. Anybody can Google "thomas.gov" and see how their representatives have voted. But do we? Nope.
It isn't about reality, it's about "feel good" for too many "good average" Americans.
We're shit and we deserve what's coming. Take that down.
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Don't forget that Az has been successful at least twice before with laws the left did not like!!
Probably would be easier if the current brouhaha was not all over the darn place or that I could remember the subject. Wait! That gives me an idea! Yes! Here we go: "In a February 2008 ASAP (chat) asap - As soon as possible. article, Eyes on the Workforce: Legal Arizona Workers Act Withstands Constitutional Scrutiny, we discussed the federal district court ruling upholding the Legal Arizona Workers Act ("the Act"). On September 17, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a decision affirming the district court judgment. The Act, initially passed by the Arizona legislature The Arizona Legislature is the state legislature of the U.S. state of Arizona. It is a bicameral legislature that consists of a lower house, the House of Representatives, and an upper house, the Senate. There are 60 Representatives and 30 Senators. in July 2007 and amended in May 2008, penalizes employers that knowingly or intentionally hire undocumented workers in Arizona by suspending or revoking their business licenses. The Act also requires that all Arizona employers use E-Verify, the online employment eligibility verification program, to confirm the work authorization of newly hired employees."
The democratic party would like to say thank you, but it is a shallow victory to know that there is such open and wide spread discrimination of entire groups still playing out in your politics.
Whether it's a new Mosque, or singling out Latino types, or right wing media smearing the reputations of African Americans in this administration, you have proven once again that you cannot accept that the country has moved beyond your comprehension.
Until the GOP gives up its Southern Strategy, it is moving farther and farther away from the mainstream of America.
The axiom in real estate is "location, location, location" That is the issue in the case of the mosque to which I presume you are referring.
Singling out Latino types? Elucidate please!
Were the country to have moved beyond my comprehension I would have nothing to say.
Only the brainwashed think he scored a "victory".
As the author suggests, it's really up to Hispanics, and I would add, independents coming back to their senses after realizing the Democrats are doing a good job to restore the country.
The flaw in your thinking is that they do not innately possess any authority in this regard. This is Constitutionally mandated as a Federal prerogative.
Article IV (Powers granted to the States), Section 4 of the US Constitution states:
"The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence."
SB1070 is an "Application of the Legislature" in this particular case used to protect Arizona against domestic Violence.
Apparently the conspiracy you see is not backed up by the facts. And it's the republicans who are blocking efforts to enable employers to verify potential employees' immigration status. I wonder why? As the Indians used to say, they speak with forked tongues. They make a big show about stopping illegals all the while enabling their supporters in the business community who are making a ton of money on the cheap illegal labor.
But - 400,000 divided by estimated 11 million illegal immigrants = 3.6% annual deportations.
Like paying the minimum on your monthly VISA card - if we 100% closed the border - at 3.6% annual deportations, it will take over 25 years to deportation all the existing illegal immigrant within the USA;s borders
Reason #2. Hispanics have been apathetic voters generally and this issue has understandably jarred them. But if it doesn't mobilize them, I suspect nothing ever will. Democrats need to be cautious. Let's hope that any Latinos tending towards fatalism aren't paralyzed by the political demagoguery spewing from the right.
As for legal citizens not being oppressed, perhaps we need Jimmy Carter to oversee elections in that third world country, commonly known as "Arizona."
I will not vote for Obama again because i hoped he would end the wars, and provide health care for all Americans, now this thing with illegals. If he wants illegals in the country just say so, so we know where he stands.
Both sides are stupid, I don't vote.
We have laws today Bert....they say people MUST immigrate LEGALLY. They can't sneek here and claim its because someone asked them to work...that's another crime...and then think they have a right to stay!
Unless the SCOTUS lets this ride, I am seriously thinking of moving to AZ to join the growing rebellion against amnesty. Its getting to that point sir...and I can promise it WILL get very, very, ugly. If the SCOTUS tells the Fed to do its job and shut up....I, and a BUNCH of others will be holding them to it...or do it ourselves. Yeah..its THAT bad.