What McCain's Advisors Tried to Accomplish by Choosing Palin -- Why They Will Fail

By choosing Sarah Palin as the Republican candidate for Vice-President, McCain's all-lobbyist high command showed us three things about their analysis of the state of the race:

* They understand that if the current campaign dynamic continues they will lose. The New York Times' most recent analysis shows 172 electoral votes solidly in Obama's camp, and 79 leaning to Obama. That would leave Obama needing only 19 of the 60 electoral votes they categorize as "toss ups." Obama shows slight leads in most of these "toss up states." Campaigns that are confident in their current game plan don't throw long "Hail Mary" passes like the Palin nomination.

* They have come to agree that the basic premise of Obama's candidacy is correct: that in an electorate where 82% of the voters think the country is on the wrong track, the need for change trumps experience.

* They recognize clearly that the "enthusiasm gap" among their base voters dogs their chances for success. Democrats are mobilized, their base is positively apathetic.

Palin's selection was intended to change the dynamics of the race. It had three goals:

1). First and foremost it was intended to energize the party's grassroots, right wing evangelical base. This is the one goal it might actually help achieve. Early reports show that the selection of the ultra right wing, anti-choice Palin thrilled the James Dobson's of the world and their followers. This will increase the importance of the superb field mobilization efforts the Obama Campaign is developing in the 18 swing states -- and especially Ohio and Michigan. It also reemphasizes the enormous importance of the voter registration efforts being conducted by the campaign and many Democratic leaning organizations.

2). Second, Palin's choice was intended to reframe the McCain-Palin ticket as "pro-change." McCain's high command hoped that in and of itself the appointment of a relatively young, dynamic woman would help reframe the appearance of his candidacy. But here their gambit will ultimately fall flat.

More than anything else voters want change in our economy. They are sick of the status quo because their incomes have dropped and prices have increased. They believe that their kids are staring at a future of less opportunity than their own. They know that this is not the American dream.

The problem is that Palin completely supports the Bush-McCain economic program that in seven and a half years has taken Americans from the most prosperous period in human history to a period of economic stagnation and decline.

And when it comes to foreign policy -- the other area where voters really want change -- she brings nothing at all.

In other words Palin's appointment does nothing to alter the basic dynamics of the race: the choice between more of the same, or the change we need.

3). Finally, McCain's advisers hoped to use the choice of Palin to attract women. But there is a real question whether it will attract a net increase of women voters aside from consolidating the conservative women they would likely have gotten anyway.

Many of the Democratic women who had backed Clinton were positively insulted by the notion that they would back anyone with two x chromosomes, no matter what her positions on crucial issues -- not matter how thin her resume. A Denver Post editorial paraphrased Lloyd Bentsen's famous line from his debate with Dan Quayle: "I served with Hillary Clinton. I know Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a friend of mine. You, Sarah Palin, are no Hillary Clinton." In initial polling from Gallup, among Democratic women -- including many who supported Hillary Clinton - 9% say that Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, and 15% less likely - a net negative of 6%.

Palin will have no appeal among independent women in places like the Philadelphia or Detroit suburbs that are strongly pro-choice and anti-gun. The fact that she denies the importance of global warming and planned to sue the EPA to prevent the Polar Bear from being added to the Endangered Species list will seal the deal.

In fact, in early polling, men are more likely to be impressed by Palin than women.

But that's not all. Palin's nomination also carries with it a number of major new problems for McCain.

Most importantly it completely eliminates any advantage McCain had on the question of "experience" and cuts the legs out from under his entire "not ready to lead" attack on Obama. To quote Jake Tapper of ABC, her lack of experience makes Barack Obama look like Robert Byrd. Just 20 months ago she was the part time mayor of Wasilla - a town of 9,000. Unless you count living in a state that is across the Bering Straight from Siberia, she has zero experience with anything remotely resembling foreign or security policy. And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years.

Voters want their leaders to be on their side. In this case that means they must favor the change people believe they need. But they also want a threshold level of experience -- demonstrated ability as a strong effective leader -- especially from a President. Barack Obama spent eight years as a State Senator (representing a district 10 times as large as Wasilla), and four years in the U.S. Senate. In addition he has demonstrated his abilities as a strong effective leader by organizing one of the most effective campaigns for President in American history. He has shown his ability to hire great staff, to manage a sprawling 50 state organization, and effectively communicate and inspire millions of Americans.

His recent trip to Europe and the Middle East, his effective campaign, his depth of knowledge of the issues, his temperament and judgment -- have begun to convince most voters that he has passed the "commander-in-chief" test.

It will be hard for most American's to imagine Sarah Palin as Commander-in-Chief. That's not because she is a woman. People can now easily imagine Hillary Clinton in that role. It's because they have no reason on earth to believe that she could fill the role of the most powerful leader in the world.

I originally thought that Palin's choice would take the question of experience off the table in this race. Now I believe it will put that question back on the table -- in reverse. It will also serve to reemphasize the ever present question of McCain's age. At 72 the actuarial tables say he has a little less than a one in six chance of not surviving his term. And that doesn't account for his history of health problems. That means that if Americans vote for the McCain-Palin ticket they have to seriously consider that she has at least a one in six chance of actually serving as commander-in-chief. Already, by 44% to 29%, the Rasmussen poll shows that they do not believe she is ready to be President.

By eliminating any advantage on the experience question, McCain has placed the full focus of the debate right where we want it: do Americans want the change we need, or more of the same. If that's the debate election day, we will win hands down.

Finally, McCain chose a running mate that is currently under investigation for using here position as Governor to settle a score with her ex-brother-in-law who was also a state trooper. This investigation may provide a good portion of the narrative that defines Palin for most Americans. It will raise three questions in voter's minds:

* Abuse of office for personal ends. Alaska's former commissioner of public safety claims that the Governor fired him -- at least in part because he refused to fire her ex-brother-in-law who was involved in a bitter custody case with her sister.

* Vindictiveness. Palin's crusade against her ex-brother-in-law (who - in fairness -- does not sound like a very nice fellow) has apparently gone on for some time. Voters like tough. They don't like vindictive and mean.

* Administrative ability. Palin's replacement for commissioner of public safety had to resign two weeks after she appointed him because he had been reprimanded for sexual harassment in a previous job. So much for her ability to vet appointees.

Of course the final question the Palin appointment raises is McCain's own judgment and administrative ability. McCain had only talked to his new running made twice before he asked her to join the ticket. Someone said yesterday that they knew their barista at Starbucks better than McCain knew the person who -- if he were elected -- would be a heart beat away from stepping into the most powerful position in the World. What was he thinking?

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com.

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[burndtdan]

Correction to a fact in your article: Sarah Palin assumed office as governor in 2006. She has not been governor for 2 1/2 years, but rather 1 1/2.

[Wildangelz]

This woman is a joke! I can't wait to see her attempt to debate Joe Biden. That will be an entertaining night of television. This is just a preview of all the reckless decisions that McCain would make and the Democrats need to point that out with passion.

[NoMoFearNoMoHate]

just be warned... don't lower the bar for anyone.

we can laugh at all of her foibles and how terribly inadequate she is a even a nominee for VP but it is her policies and what she has done which any reasonable American would see as a reason not to cast a vote for McCain/Palin.

[caterpol]

Good synoposis.

Proof positive that the Republican party is so indebted to the religious right that they're unelectable without them. The chickens have come home to roost. The family-values crowd is forever stuck arguing against Science in the technology age, the 21st century. They've painted themselves into a corner.

Yet, it is certainly possible, that in this election year there are enough anti-science cults to keep this party alive for one more term, but the clock is ticking.

[billblow3]

Don't believe those polls CNN, FOX RACIST NEWS, and MSNBC are showing us, this race is nowhere near close, they poll 2000 people and say its close 46% to 45% thats just to keep people believing it, to keep you watching so they, the(media) can keep their ratings up.

[MYSTERIOUS]

I am with you on that. When you see the crowds and media that is always there to see Senator Obama, along with the amount of money that he raises, it is pretty obvious that those polls are not accurate.

[LeftRight]

It doesn't even matter how many people that they are polling. It matters that they are unable to call most of the Obama supporters, the kind of people who have only a cell phone. And it matters that they are asking the questions which keep it closer than if they were asking real questions!

[rlpete2]

McCain succeeded on two points. He balanced Obama's convention bounce; Palin has gotten more media play than Thursday at INVESCO. And it hit a home run with the Religeous Right; Palin (James Dobson's wet dream) immediately brought in $7 million in donations.

The first post convention poll shows a dead heat. Obama picked up some female support as most of Hillary's partisans came around, while Palin brouht McCain the social conservatives and some males.

But the most important thing I noticed is that the number of undecideds dropped to a level unusual for two months before the election. At 49-48, and allowing for third-party votes, the battle switches from the undecideds to poaching.

That's bad news for McCain, because he's shot his big gun. Yes, it was part desperation, because he's used up his long suit of POW trumpcards. The women's vote will break along the abortion issue, and that won't change. Social conservatives will be firmly with McCain, and they will vote. The rest of the campaign will be about the economy and foreign policy. But the election will be about Sarah Palin being a heartbeat from the Presidency.

[Isher]

CORRECTION

"Just 20 months ago she was the part time mayor of Wasilla - a town of 9,000."

"And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years."

You're giving her 10 months. It's less than two years.

[MYSTERIOUS]

You should google Wasilla City Hall (images) - Form your own opinion. Compare that to The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC. I'm just sayin'....­.

[Tau0]

The Republican argument is that Governor Palin has more
executive experience than Senator Obama. Now think about
this ... Senator McCain has NO executive experience. Neither,
does Senator Biden. So, according to the Republican
argument Palin is the most qualified candidate of all four:
Obama, McCain, Biden and Palin, which is patently absurd.
Hence, their argument is vacuous and ought to be pointed
out to the media as such.

[atp2007]

I'm not buying this story that they chose her to attract women, I think this aspect was a red herring to distract the press from McCain shift to the far right after dipping his toes into more moderate waters and having the Conservative barracudas bite them off. McCain could have chosen a more qualified Conservative like Brownback, Huckabee..­.. but it would have been clear then that he had shifted far right. By chossing her he sent the press in the wrong direction and they are busy writing articles about the Hillaryites again. Hard to believe he could choose a woman whose mother-in-law doesn't think she is qualified, nor do many of the Reppublican politicos in Alaska. Press also fell for the 'reformer' persona, ignoring the barracudas habit of stabbing veteran office holders in her party in the back and even running against the governor who appointed her to the Energy Comission. All this while her husband trails behind her with the baby and kids, including the pregnant 17 year old. I guess Mom forgot to tkae time from her schedule to explain celibacy to her, too bad she didn't have Sex Ed in school rather than creationism.

[KevinFitzz]

I would have been afraid had he picked Huckleberr­y...

[furryone]

Thank you for your analysis Mr. Creamer...­you have been spot on this entire election season, and I respect your writing more than anyone else's on HuffPost. PLEASE keep it up!

[ggm68]

"McCain has placed the full focus of the debate right where we want it: do Americans want the change we need, or more of the same. If that's the debate election day, we will win hands down."

That assumes Palin won't successfully present herself (and by extension McCain) as the very agents of change we so desperately need. She's already doing it. She'll fight corruption, she says. She'll fight corporate power, she'll stick up for the little guy and work for the common good. That's what she's saying in her speeches, and who's to say it won't work just as well as it worked for W to call himself a "compassionate conservative" back in 2000. Never mind that she's lying. In politics you can go a long, long way by just telling people what they want to hear.

[jaleh]

Only in Republican America would a black man with a law degree from Harvard, 12 years in politics, four years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and manager of one of the most impressively flawless and forward thinking presidential campaigns ever not be ready for the presidency while a white female evangelical with 19 months in national politics and a bachelors in journalism is considered "ready on day one.

so true.

[TRWSEW]

You liberals continue to make a BIG mistake.
YOU CANNOT COMPARE THE PRES CANDIDATE TO THE VP CANDIDATE AND MAKE IT STICK.
THAT IS AN APPLES TO ORANGES COMPARISON.
Mr. Bo at best has about the same experience as Palin.
But she is the VP candidate. NOT the Pres candidate.
The Repubs still have the experience advantage. Period.

Experience is still a factor.
The VP level is not very pertinent.
Mr. BO does NOT have the experience that McCain has. That's apples to apples comparison.

[zedthewizard]

i agree with much of your assement. however, you need to incorporate the media's irresponsibility by letting republican guests and agents interrupt, insult, and blindly smile while sticking to talking points. chris matthews, hardball, did a great job with a guest a few months ago claiming obama was an appeaser. matthews refused to move on until he incorporated with context in meaning and application to obama. the gues finally admitted he didn't know. sadly, this happens, well, really never except this once. the media has take more responsibility -- ask ask ask ask and remove them from the show. i know, if it was easy, it wouldn't need to be done.

[zann]

Nearly half of Americans want Roe v. Wade repealed. Will Palin make this election about abortion instead of war, privatization, globalization, corruption and debt?

[jethrock]

Correction: "And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years."

She's only been Guv for ONE and a half years.