What McCain's Advisors Tried to Accomplish by Choosing Palin -- Why They Will Fail

By choosing Sarah Palin as the Republican candidate for Vice-President, McCain's all-lobbyist high command showed us three things about their analysis of the state of the race:

* They understand that if the current campaign dynamic continues they will lose. The New York Times' most recent analysis shows 172 electoral votes solidly in Obama's camp, and 79 leaning to Obama. That would leave Obama needing only 19 of the 60 electoral votes they categorize as "toss ups." Obama shows slight leads in most of these "toss up states." Campaigns that are confident in their current game plan don't throw long "Hail Mary" passes like the Palin nomination.

* They have come to agree that the basic premise of Obama's candidacy is correct: that in an electorate where 82% of the voters think the country is on the wrong track, the need for change trumps experience.

* They recognize clearly that the "enthusiasm gap" among their base voters dogs their chances for success. Democrats are mobilized, their base is positively apathetic.

Palin's selection was intended to change the dynamics of the race. It had three goals:

1). First and foremost it was intended to energize the party's grassroots, right wing evangelical base. This is the one goal it might actually help achieve. Early reports show that the selection of the ultra right wing, anti-choice Palin thrilled the James Dobson's of the world and their followers. This will increase the importance of the superb field mobilization efforts the Obama Campaign is developing in the 18 swing states -- and especially Ohio and Michigan. It also reemphasizes the enormous importance of the voter registration efforts being conducted by the campaign and many Democratic leaning organizations.

2). Second, Palin's choice was intended to reframe the McCain-Palin ticket as "pro-change." McCain's high command hoped that in and of itself the appointment of a relatively young, dynamic woman would help reframe the appearance of his candidacy. But here their gambit will ultimately fall flat.

More than anything else voters want change in our economy. They are sick of the status quo because their incomes have dropped and prices have increased. They believe that their kids are staring at a future of less opportunity than their own. They know that this is not the American dream.

The problem is that Palin completely supports the Bush-McCain economic program that in seven and a half years has taken Americans from the most prosperous period in human history to a period of economic stagnation and decline.

And when it comes to foreign policy -- the other area where voters really want change -- she brings nothing at all.

In other words Palin's appointment does nothing to alter the basic dynamics of the race: the choice between more of the same, or the change we need.

3). Finally, McCain's advisers hoped to use the choice of Palin to attract women. But there is a real question whether it will attract a net increase of women voters aside from consolidating the conservative women they would likely have gotten anyway.

Many of the Democratic women who had backed Clinton were positively insulted by the notion that they would back anyone with two x chromosomes, no matter what her positions on crucial issues -- not matter how thin her resume. A Denver Post editorial paraphrased Lloyd Bentsen's famous line from his debate with Dan Quayle: "I served with Hillary Clinton. I know Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a friend of mine. You, Sarah Palin, are no Hillary Clinton." In initial polling from Gallup, among Democratic women -- including many who supported Hillary Clinton - 9% say that Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, and 15% less likely - a net negative of 6%.

Palin will have no appeal among independent women in places like the Philadelphia or Detroit suburbs that are strongly pro-choice and anti-gun. The fact that she denies the importance of global warming and planned to sue the EPA to prevent the Polar Bear from being added to the Endangered Species list will seal the deal.

In fact, in early polling, men are more likely to be impressed by Palin than women.

But that's not all. Palin's nomination also carries with it a number of major new problems for McCain.

Most importantly it completely eliminates any advantage McCain had on the question of "experience" and cuts the legs out from under his entire "not ready to lead" attack on Obama. To quote Jake Tapper of ABC, her lack of experience makes Barack Obama look like Robert Byrd. Just 20 months ago she was the part time mayor of Wasilla - a town of 9,000. Unless you count living in a state that is across the Bering Straight from Siberia, she has zero experience with anything remotely resembling foreign or security policy. And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years.

Voters want their leaders to be on their side. In this case that means they must favor the change people believe they need. But they also want a threshold level of experience -- demonstrated ability as a strong effective leader -- especially from a President. Barack Obama spent eight years as a State Senator (representing a district 10 times as large as Wasilla), and four years in the U.S. Senate. In addition he has demonstrated his abilities as a strong effective leader by organizing one of the most effective campaigns for President in American history. He has shown his ability to hire great staff, to manage a sprawling 50 state organization, and effectively communicate and inspire millions of Americans.

His recent trip to Europe and the Middle East, his effective campaign, his depth of knowledge of the issues, his temperament and judgment -- have begun to convince most voters that he has passed the "commander-in-chief" test.

It will be hard for most American's to imagine Sarah Palin as Commander-in-Chief. That's not because she is a woman. People can now easily imagine Hillary Clinton in that role. It's because they have no reason on earth to believe that she could fill the role of the most powerful leader in the world.

I originally thought that Palin's choice would take the question of experience off the table in this race. Now I believe it will put that question back on the table -- in reverse. It will also serve to reemphasize the ever present question of McCain's age. At 72 the actuarial tables say he has a little less than a one in six chance of not surviving his term. And that doesn't account for his history of health problems. That means that if Americans vote for the McCain-Palin ticket they have to seriously consider that she has at least a one in six chance of actually serving as commander-in-chief. Already, by 44% to 29%, the Rasmussen poll shows that they do not believe she is ready to be President.

By eliminating any advantage on the experience question, McCain has placed the full focus of the debate right where we want it: do Americans want the change we need, or more of the same. If that's the debate election day, we will win hands down.

Finally, McCain chose a running mate that is currently under investigation for using here position as Governor to settle a score with her ex-brother-in-law who was also a state trooper. This investigation may provide a good portion of the narrative that defines Palin for most Americans. It will raise three questions in voter's minds:

* Abuse of office for personal ends. Alaska's former commissioner of public safety claims that the Governor fired him -- at least in part because he refused to fire her ex-brother-in-law who was involved in a bitter custody case with her sister.

* Vindictiveness. Palin's crusade against her ex-brother-in-law (who - in fairness -- does not sound like a very nice fellow) has apparently gone on for some time. Voters like tough. They don't like vindictive and mean.

* Administrative ability. Palin's replacement for commissioner of public safety had to resign two weeks after she appointed him because he had been reprimanded for sexual harassment in a previous job. So much for her ability to vet appointees.

Of course the final question the Palin appointment raises is McCain's own judgment and administrative ability. McCain had only talked to his new running made twice before he asked her to join the ticket. Someone said yesterday that they knew their barista at Starbucks better than McCain knew the person who -- if he were elected -- would be a heart beat away from stepping into the most powerful position in the World. What was he thinking?

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com.

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[yvonne61]

THIS IS A IMPORTANT PROBLEM IF SOMETHING HAPPEN TO MCCAIN DO PEOPLE THINK SHE REALLY TO STEP IN THAT IS SCARY. SHE DON'T HAVE NO NATIONAL OR FOREIGN EXPERIENCE AND THAT SHOULD BE PUT ON THE TABLE. WILL PEOPLE STILL VOTE FOR THE TICKET. WE HAVE TWO WARS GOING ON RUSSIA PROBLEMS. AMERICAN NEED TO THINK HARD ABOUT THIS?

[1Smartchik]

She is going to over study, you know how that is and you sit at the desk and your mind goes blank, I cannot wait until the debate. I wish it was tonight.

[elizaW]

CNN is reporting that Obama and McCain are just about even in the polls so that means Obama did not get a big jump after the convention. Keep attacking Palin and watch Obama lose even more points in the polls.

[neenj]

it's the electoral college polls that matter. so keep salivating and hallucinating.

[furryone]

CNN polls (and most polls) means SQUAT. How many Obama supporters do they actually ever reach? The majority of people I know that support Obama don't even OWN a land line anymore.

You want Palin to be coddled, then you should really write her an e-mail NOW and beg her to drop out, because this is an ELECTION, not a beauty pageant. If you think the Dems are not going to fight back, dream on eliza.

[patrickgarret]

CNN"s poll is crap. Gallop and Rasmuseen show a CLEAR Obama bounce. Gallop Obama up 6. Rasmussen up 4 with McCain's pick LOSING 1% of women! HAHA.

[Beranek]

Let's see . . . praise Palin, attack Palin. Praise Palin, attack Palin. Praise Palin, attack Palin. If we attack Palin, Mc "Cane" and his Russian expert VP will win, hands down. If we praise Palin, well, they'd win then, too.
I think I will attack Palin . . . what do you think?

[thesimulacra]

"Keep attacking Palin and watch Obama lose even more points in the polls."

You mean, watch as your candidate exploits gender bias and residual anger to win a Presidential election? Yeah, that's the guy I want to root for. Sure. That guy is definitely the one I want in the Oval Office.

[Rjmartinelli]

I really hate to say this. Anyone who has read my posts should know just how much I cringe when I write this...but the best and possibly only chance for the Obama campaign to attack Palin directly is...Hilla­ry Clinton.

My personal view is that Hillary is going to want to remain quiet, so that she can be seen as supporting Palin's run in 2012 when she tries to run again. And that would be whether or not Obama gets elected.

However, if Mrs. Clinton really is putting Barack's run at the White House before her own ambitions, if she really wants to see the Democratic ticket win this year, then she really has no choice.

Palin is blatantly trying to co-opt all of the work she put into her Presidential run. She has so little experience she makes Obama look like a seasoned veteran (though in many cases now, he is), she is against everything Hillary has stood for, and is currently under investigation for abuse of power.

Her defining feature, however, may be her best defense: she's a woman. As such, Obama and Biden cannot attack her directly without a serious slipup on her part; else they look like the bad guys picking on the girl.

However, Hillary is the only person who really does not have that problem. She has the positioning to call a spade a spade. If Hillary goes on the attack against Palin the Republican ticket could effectively be torn to shreds.

[JustMyWords]

Good point - Clinton is one of the few people that can attack Palin without getting the "sexist" card played against her. (Although having seen the MSM in action, I can see them trying it anyway.)

I think Kathleen Sebelius could get in a good swipe or two, as well, and maybe point out the hypocrisy of the media to boot (which is why she probably won't get a chance). Sebelius was mentioned in passing as a VP pick for Obama, and I wish I had a dollar for every pundit I heard write her off as unqualified because she's just an almost-unknown state governor. Yeah, almost unknown, with far more time in elective office, far more time as governor, and running a state with a considerably larger population (budget, etc).

[MYSTERIOUS]

Please, it is really, really, R E A L L Y time to move on, and on, and on on on.

[LeftRight]

I won't say the ONLY choice, but CERTAINLY a VERY good choice would be Hillary!! In fact, I would LOVE to see Hillary go against Quaylin!!!!

[dnels14]

great article. i second the motion.. the i's have it.

may the force be with obama and biden 2008 and beyond

[marike1]

Robert Creamer wrote: " And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years."

According to her Wikipedia page, Palin was sworn in on Dec. 4, 2006, which means that she hasn't even been Governor of Alaska for two whole years (20 months), let alone 2 1/2 years.

And this idea presented by Republican spinmeisters that she has more experience than Barack Obama, someone who has been a US Senator in a state of 13 million people for close to four years and on the national stage in the 18 months since announcing his candidacy for president. The fact that he was president of the Harvard Law Review and spent 12 years as a professor of constitutional law at the University of Chicago places him in the upper echelon of experts on the subject.

The other spin we are hearing is that his choice shows what a maverick McCain is. However, we are now learning from reports in Sunday's NY Times that McCain wanted to choose his friend Joe Lieberman, but the right wing of the party threatened a floor fight at the RNC if he did so. In an interview with Brian Williams, McCain said he had no knowledge of this dissent inside the party. But if these reports are accurate, is seems clear that John McCain is not setting the agenda for his party, and he may not even be in control of his own campaign.

[glesslib]

And the final, most trivial reason that Palin was chosen....­..Obama made an incredible speech on the last night of the Democratic Convention, and the McCain people wanted to suck the energy out of his triumph. So, a decision that could affect the country for years to come was made by some ad agency -type looking to capture the news cycle These people are more cynical then even I could imagine. Congratulations, guys. If McCain wins, then dies in office, I hope you never have any reason to second guess this decision.

[MYSTERIOUS]

That is exactly what this is all about. They just wanted to take away some of Barack Obama's triumph. The media pretty much did the same thing right after the primaries: "What does Hillary want?" McCain just shows desperation. It seems like they are trying to be like Obama. They can see a real winner - you have to give them credit for that. OBAMA 08 OH---YEAH!

[GolfingDevil05]

Worse than being a maverick is being a loose cannon, one who will gamble with the country's future by selecting a vice president solely for political purpose. No one doubts that Sen. Biden could step in and run the country if he had to. I'm not so sure that Gov. Palin could.

[ByersL]

Just a note, she's only been gov for 1 and a half years, she took office in Dec 06. Troopergate is the least of her problems, Alaskans all over can't wait to tell their stories about her, and the other scandals that will be held until closer to November. McCain made a mistake not vetting her properly. While I'd love to see a woman on a ticket, just like Hillary, it needs to be the right woman!

[Indeedwespeak]

It is all very simple. Plaster all over the media Palin's record and her political views---the good, the bad, and the ugly. See how far that ship travels before it sinks---she is a proverbial albatross around McSame's neck.

[arthur2008]

Although his campaign would like for the issue to remain unspeakable, John McCain's age and his multiple cancers do in fact have to be part of the equation when considering his VP pick. His decision was rash, foolish and selfish. Had he been willing to put his country's interests above his own ambitions, we still would have no idea who Sarah Palin is.

[Pericles]

"Experience" is the wrong frame, because it also cuts against Obama.

"Untested" is the right frame. The real question is who knows their stuff and who will perform under pressure. Obama's proved again and again that he knows his stuff, and when he debates McCain it will be obvious that he has the deeper grasp of the issues. Similarly, the campaign has put Obama through a wringer and he's always come out looking fresh.

Does Palin know her stuff? Will she perform under pressure? Nobody knows. That should worry people.

[ApolloSpeaks]

JOHN MCCAIN THE REAL FORCE FOR CHANGE

McCain picks Palin to consolidate his grip on the conservative wing of the Republican Party and attract Hillay's disaffected femacrats. Obama picks Biden because of his inexperience in foreign policy, national security and defense issues. McCain's running mate essentially changes nothing. McCain is qualified to be Commander in Chief Obama isn't and admits as much by choosing Biden. Moreover, with Palin at McCain's side the old ass kicking Teddy Roosevelt maverick is back-the real force for change in this campaign.

[JustMyWords]

Rationalize much?

[markie1111]

can you say "irrational exuberance"????

[Pepper14]

If you look at the latest poll with Obama only 1 point ahead of McCain I would say that the pick was a winner. If Obama is only 1-3 points ahead he will lose because for him to win he needs to be in double digits. When you stop and think that 40 million people watched his speech (so the media tells us) and the GOP hasn't even had a convention and he is only 1 point ahead this should give dems a lot of worry.

[furryone]

Please PROVE with DATA how you arrive at your mathmatical equation on what % Obama needs to be a head in pointless polls to win.

What gives ME a lot TO worry ABOUT, is the level of stupidity on this board sometimes. Just being a frightened sheep will not make you any more likely to win.

AND BY THE WAY.....th­e United States of America elects their President through the Electoral College. Go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls, or ANY website that reports on electoral votes, and McCain has NEVER been ahead of Obama.

THAT is something YOU should BE worried ABOUT.

[rlpete2]

A few days ago, I would have agreed with you that Obama would need a large lead in the polls to overcome the Bradley effect. I think McCain has neutralized, or perhaps balanced that concern. For every person wondering at the last minute whether he/she can vote for a black man, at least one will be wondering whether they want a person with no national, let alone international credentials just a heartbeat from the Presidency.

[jmcvann]

Interesting logic. Obama cannot win because he isn't 10 points ahead, but McCain will win because he is 1 point back. Please explain how your brain works.

[Beranek]

This is now, then is then. So what are your views on the upcoming debates? Palin will kick Biden's ass? Over what? A superior moose stew recipe? And Mc"Cane" will hand Obama his walking papers. Over what? His ability to articulate a superior agenda?
Think ahead, Pepper. And think of better days . . .

[sandpiper1]

Polls are meaningles­s...check the EVs. He's ahead there which is more important. Stop buying into polls..the­y are fixed and focussed on specific demographics to obtain the results pollsters want.