What McCain's Advisors Tried to Accomplish by Choosing Palin -- Why They Will Fail

By choosing Sarah Palin as the Republican candidate for Vice-President, McCain's all-lobbyist high command showed us three things about their analysis of the state of the race:

* They understand that if the current campaign dynamic continues they will lose. The New York Times' most recent analysis shows 172 electoral votes solidly in Obama's camp, and 79 leaning to Obama. That would leave Obama needing only 19 of the 60 electoral votes they categorize as "toss ups." Obama shows slight leads in most of these "toss up states." Campaigns that are confident in their current game plan don't throw long "Hail Mary" passes like the Palin nomination.

* They have come to agree that the basic premise of Obama's candidacy is correct: that in an electorate where 82% of the voters think the country is on the wrong track, the need for change trumps experience.

* They recognize clearly that the "enthusiasm gap" among their base voters dogs their chances for success. Democrats are mobilized, their base is positively apathetic.

Palin's selection was intended to change the dynamics of the race. It had three goals:

1). First and foremost it was intended to energize the party's grassroots, right wing evangelical base. This is the one goal it might actually help achieve. Early reports show that the selection of the ultra right wing, anti-choice Palin thrilled the James Dobson's of the world and their followers. This will increase the importance of the superb field mobilization efforts the Obama Campaign is developing in the 18 swing states -- and especially Ohio and Michigan. It also reemphasizes the enormous importance of the voter registration efforts being conducted by the campaign and many Democratic leaning organizations.

2). Second, Palin's choice was intended to reframe the McCain-Palin ticket as "pro-change." McCain's high command hoped that in and of itself the appointment of a relatively young, dynamic woman would help reframe the appearance of his candidacy. But here their gambit will ultimately fall flat.

More than anything else voters want change in our economy. They are sick of the status quo because their incomes have dropped and prices have increased. They believe that their kids are staring at a future of less opportunity than their own. They know that this is not the American dream.

The problem is that Palin completely supports the Bush-McCain economic program that in seven and a half years has taken Americans from the most prosperous period in human history to a period of economic stagnation and decline.

And when it comes to foreign policy -- the other area where voters really want change -- she brings nothing at all.

In other words Palin's appointment does nothing to alter the basic dynamics of the race: the choice between more of the same, or the change we need.

3). Finally, McCain's advisers hoped to use the choice of Palin to attract women. But there is a real question whether it will attract a net increase of women voters aside from consolidating the conservative women they would likely have gotten anyway.

Many of the Democratic women who had backed Clinton were positively insulted by the notion that they would back anyone with two x chromosomes, no matter what her positions on crucial issues -- not matter how thin her resume. A Denver Post editorial paraphrased Lloyd Bentsen's famous line from his debate with Dan Quayle: "I served with Hillary Clinton. I know Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a friend of mine. You, Sarah Palin, are no Hillary Clinton." In initial polling from Gallup, among Democratic women -- including many who supported Hillary Clinton - 9% say that Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, and 15% less likely - a net negative of 6%.

Palin will have no appeal among independent women in places like the Philadelphia or Detroit suburbs that are strongly pro-choice and anti-gun. The fact that she denies the importance of global warming and planned to sue the EPA to prevent the Polar Bear from being added to the Endangered Species list will seal the deal.

In fact, in early polling, men are more likely to be impressed by Palin than women.

But that's not all. Palin's nomination also carries with it a number of major new problems for McCain.

Most importantly it completely eliminates any advantage McCain had on the question of "experience" and cuts the legs out from under his entire "not ready to lead" attack on Obama. To quote Jake Tapper of ABC, her lack of experience makes Barack Obama look like Robert Byrd. Just 20 months ago she was the part time mayor of Wasilla - a town of 9,000. Unless you count living in a state that is across the Bering Straight from Siberia, she has zero experience with anything remotely resembling foreign or security policy. And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years.

Voters want their leaders to be on their side. In this case that means they must favor the change people believe they need. But they also want a threshold level of experience -- demonstrated ability as a strong effective leader -- especially from a President. Barack Obama spent eight years as a State Senator (representing a district 10 times as large as Wasilla), and four years in the U.S. Senate. In addition he has demonstrated his abilities as a strong effective leader by organizing one of the most effective campaigns for President in American history. He has shown his ability to hire great staff, to manage a sprawling 50 state organization, and effectively communicate and inspire millions of Americans.

His recent trip to Europe and the Middle East, his effective campaign, his depth of knowledge of the issues, his temperament and judgment -- have begun to convince most voters that he has passed the "commander-in-chief" test.

It will be hard for most American's to imagine Sarah Palin as Commander-in-Chief. That's not because she is a woman. People can now easily imagine Hillary Clinton in that role. It's because they have no reason on earth to believe that she could fill the role of the most powerful leader in the world.

I originally thought that Palin's choice would take the question of experience off the table in this race. Now I believe it will put that question back on the table -- in reverse. It will also serve to reemphasize the ever present question of McCain's age. At 72 the actuarial tables say he has a little less than a one in six chance of not surviving his term. And that doesn't account for his history of health problems. That means that if Americans vote for the McCain-Palin ticket they have to seriously consider that she has at least a one in six chance of actually serving as commander-in-chief. Already, by 44% to 29%, the Rasmussen poll shows that they do not believe she is ready to be President.

By eliminating any advantage on the experience question, McCain has placed the full focus of the debate right where we want it: do Americans want the change we need, or more of the same. If that's the debate election day, we will win hands down.

Finally, McCain chose a running mate that is currently under investigation for using here position as Governor to settle a score with her ex-brother-in-law who was also a state trooper. This investigation may provide a good portion of the narrative that defines Palin for most Americans. It will raise three questions in voter's minds:

* Abuse of office for personal ends. Alaska's former commissioner of public safety claims that the Governor fired him -- at least in part because he refused to fire her ex-brother-in-law who was involved in a bitter custody case with her sister.

* Vindictiveness. Palin's crusade against her ex-brother-in-law (who - in fairness -- does not sound like a very nice fellow) has apparently gone on for some time. Voters like tough. They don't like vindictive and mean.

* Administrative ability. Palin's replacement for commissioner of public safety had to resign two weeks after she appointed him because he had been reprimanded for sexual harassment in a previous job. So much for her ability to vet appointees.

Of course the final question the Palin appointment raises is McCain's own judgment and administrative ability. McCain had only talked to his new running made twice before he asked her to join the ticket. Someone said yesterday that they knew their barista at Starbucks better than McCain knew the person who -- if he were elected -- would be a heart beat away from stepping into the most powerful position in the World. What was he thinking?

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com.

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[historyman2008]

All the people I have spoken to about Palin are horrified by this choice, and this includes several Republicans who are shocked that McCain would choose such an unqualified individual for VP. Of course, these are classic Republicans, not the Christian nutjobs that have such an unwieldy influence in the party today, and they are all disgusted with Bush. My feeling is that, unless Obama makes some massive blunder between now and November, these moderate Republicans, along with the Independents, will vote Democrat because they, too, recognize that we desperately need change.

[AC500]

Then there's the 'screech' effect. The woman screeches. She needs lessons on how to throw her voice without screeching.

[DAALCA]

Palin is brilliant choice, for it enthuses his party. It think it might give Sen, McCain the election. If so, I believe he will surprise people as president. He will have to work everything out with Congress, but he will not belittle or abuse Congress. He will create consensus and make some compromise. He is going to make decisions as a one term president and will not have to bow down to the stupid objections from the far left or the far right. He will be his own man. He only went so far right in this election because he had to. Look at his positions in 2000 and a before this election campaign began, to see how he really thinks.. This country is so cuddled, that it can not handle the hard realities of solutions from any candidate; this is why he and Sen. Obama have to be quiet about what they really think needs to be done. I am an independent voter in a swing state (PA) who was going to sit this election out, but now think I might vote for a republican for president for the first time. ( I liked McCain in 2000, but he was finished by the time he got to my state's primary.) Who ever does win, I will support , cheer on, and hope will make a great president.

[FACINGREALIT]

John McCain: Ready to Vet on Day Three

The campaign of John McCain has sent a staff of eight people into Alaska to conduct background checks and vetting on Governor Sarah Palin. Word is they have have eight rooms reserved at a Wasilla hotel.



http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/31/204026/297/98/581620

[hollywood]

As much as I would ordinarily agree with you, today I agree more. I caught a snippet of a Maria Bartiromo interview with Gov. Palin. She is what I might call a maverick in an irresponsible sense. Basically, the part I saw was "drill drill drill" in Anwar. Her point seemed to be that her fellow Alaskans were totally behind this. Even if we assume that's true, she had no real analysisof how this would help in the long run. She said that Alaskans believed this could be done while preserving what she touted as a special environment in Anwar/Prudhoe Bay. [Hello, Exxon Valdez?!} But her real rationale appeared to be something about how Alaskans wanted to contribute something to benefit the lower 48. It was almost like they would go to war for us/pay off our mortgages/­etc.. Is this guilt for all we have done for them? Is this take a look at us now? Of course, this maverick has a different view from the other alleged maverick. Maybe they will win. They are basically talk radio politicians, and god knows lots of voters are enthralled by talk radio. Heaven help us.

[TenThings]

You know the Republicans better than they know themselves. You got it right. Her being a woman is not the point, first and foremost, she's a republican. She agrees with Bush and McCain.
Maybe Palin's selection was intended to change the "dynamics" of the race but it only changed the "look" of the race. Both sides are different on substance.

[RRonin]

The question in my mind is did McCain even consult his team? It doesn't appear that she was vetted much, if at all. What I'm wondering is did somebody (like James Dobson) get to McCain? And talk him into taking her? Is Palin a Trojan Horse for the Christian Dominionists? If she is, and McCain wins, he better hire a food taster....

[sandpiper1]

CNN just reported that Rep. conservative are saying he picked her because she's a social conservati­ve.. also that her teenage daughter is 5 months pregnant and they are applauding it. Can you imagine if Barack had a teenage daughter who was pregnant..­she would be called sinful, loose and every negative name imagined.
What hyprocroci­sy...an extremist fundamentalist mother with a teenage pregnant daughter & it's ok because she's keeping the baby. I guess premarital sex is not sinful in their religion.

[jcwtts1]

Obama should never mention her name. The Pres doesn't fight with a vp candidate that's why you have Biden and Hillary, Here is the reality folks and people don't like to talk about it. Negative campaigning suppresses turnout. It does and the GOP loves to suppress turnout. We on the other hand need as many people to vote as possible. So let Biden rip her and let Obama inspire and that is how we win. Massive voter registration and turnout. Massive. We need millions of new voters, for example, un registered college age people and blacks in FL, 1.3 million...­. in PA newly registered dems, 400,000 GOP 60,000 loss. That is how we win.

J

[videlicet]

I am still caution to declare that they will fail, since they did an excellent job in making over Bush and McCain into plausible candidates (where I would ordinarily have believed there was no contest!). So Obama and the Dems should still step lightly (which is Obama's strong suit).

That said, it seems evident by the amount of dirt already surfacing about Palin that they did not vet her enough - if at all! If they wanted grassroots enthusiasm, they should have picked Huckabee; if they wanted women they should have picked Clinton(!). But they were apparently desperate to make a splash the day after Obama's speech, and so they threw this Hail Mary pass.

What I hope this transparent pander accomplishes in the next couple months is a wake up call to our democracy: that choosing a candidate solely on whether you identify with their image or values is bad politics. Not only women, but social conservatives too will have to decide whether it is more important to attain the brass ring of power than it is to select a competent leader in these precarious times. With pundits now debating whether a small town mayor is more qualified than one of our most inspiring politicians in modern times, our political discourse has become meaningless. Absurdly so.

[katysax]

It is shocking. McCain actually gained a point in the overnight polls after making this cynical and irresponsible pick.

[Miande]

Wilol anyone already not already inclined to vote for Obama be swayed by the Palin choice? How many will be offended by the patent absurdity of it? We'll find out.

[steversm]

It has already worked. Her announcement has stunted any bounce Obama had at his tremendously successful convention. Every left wing blog is trashing her which is another good sign. She has created a buzz an excitement that the McCain campaign didn't have and wasn't going to get. Everytime she is attacked about her inexperience it just reminds the country that the Dems top of the ticket is the least experienced and least accomplished nominee in modern history. I didn't notice anyone last week bring up an significant accomplishment that Obama has done in his entire life.

Remember this is a 50/50 country. Turn-out is the key. McCain picked her so he can win. He is confident in his own ability to run the country. Obama picked Joe Biden because he is lacking. McCain needed the spark and to help him move farther away from Bush.

[certainot]

one of the most important things palin can do is unify the talk radio base for mccain at a time for the convention at a time when huckabee and barr are stirring things up. i'll bet she will channel the talk radio talking points very well, and rove with them. palin was leaked friday morning just before limbaugh started his show. limbaugh called the pick brilliant and used it to rationalize his official support for mccain.

[Mylegacy]

Will everyone PLEASE lay off Palin.

She’s a sweet kid, a great point guard and can make baby formula in 5 seconds with her eyes closed while shooting a moose with her baby-pink AK47. She a great gal, and might even avoid getting arrested in her “Troopergate,” “abuse of power,” ethics problem. In addition, the “city” er “town” er “whatever” it was she was the “Mayor” of should be out from under the $20,000,00­0.00 debt she left them in about 40 or 50 years. Hey, what's $3,000.00 debt for every man, woman and child in that hamlet - by Republican standards - it’s practically a gift!

She is so far outside the mainstream that her abilities, and or the lack of them, are just not an issue. She’s a Creationist and anti-choice - EVEN in the cases of rape, incest and when the mother could die! In fact, she’s actually EVEN against birth control - including the use of condoms by married couples!

The ONLY relevant issue about her is this: “How on earth could 4 time cancer survivor John McCain have so little judgment as to think, even for a split second, that this woman was qualified to be a heartbeat away from being AMERICA’S President.

John - you’re not a “Maverick” you’re a “Buffoon.”

[Zoolie]

And Palin's gonna chew on walrus hide till it's soft enough to make McCain a pair of handmade muklucks.

[HWBII]

mylegacy: please give me the source for Palin being against contraception of any kind in any situation. I need to source it to use it as one of the biggest arguments against the "pro-life" maniacs. Should people, even married ones, just pro-create willy nilly? Guess they think so, or seek to subsume the basic drive for intimacy.

[BMS]

"while shooting a moose with her baby-pink AK47."

ROTFLMAO

thanks for that image - but don't forget the sparkly pageant tiara she has perched on her head......­.

[Gary47]

As far as the repubs are concerned, your second sentence ("She"s a sweet kid, a great point guard and can make baby formula in 5 seconds with her eyes closed while shooting a moose with her baby-pink AK47") is absolutely true and they are falling all over themselves loving it up. Repubs don't care about experience or ethics - the last eight years have provided massive evidence for that - they care about values and nothing else. She comes loaded with just the right mix for them.

[Rjmartinelli]

"Will everyone PLEASE lay off Palin. "

She wants to be in a position to run this country. No. We will not lay off.

[LeftRight]

Read the rest of it. There was a lot of sarcasm in there!

[Give Peace A Chance]

Just to set the record straight. Palin has only been Governor for 20 months and when she was mayor of Wasilla, the town population was less than 6,000.

[lisaintexas]

Thank you - I was just checking on that - thought it was under two years.

[dzent1]

And being Gov. of Alaska is like being mayor of 1/3 of say, Chicago. Oh, yeah, let's vote for that...

[tlgeiger62]

The state of Alaska's population according to US Census...(­2006) -- 670,053 people.

It is listed as the 48th state in terms of population.

[DAE]

Don't forget she was also on maternity leave for three of those days.

[TRWSEW]

Who cares!!!!!

This is a race between the 2 presidential candidates.

Mr. BO and McCain....­..........­.......NOT­..........­...Mr. BO and Palin.

And if you keep slaming Palin, I guarantee women that share Palins family/mother position, regardless of party, will flock to McCain in the end. They WILL rally around Palin, like a mother protects her young. Mark my words.
If Dems really want to loose this race, keep slamming Palin.

[Scorpio13]

You are absolutely correct! The more you diss her the more protective they will be in spite of themselves. It's one of those quirks of human nature. I think O knows that considering his responses lately. He and B will have to tiptoe carefully through this mine field.