What McCain's Advisors Tried to Accomplish by Choosing Palin -- Why They Will Fail

By choosing Sarah Palin as the Republican candidate for Vice-President, McCain's all-lobbyist high command showed us three things about their analysis of the state of the race:

* They understand that if the current campaign dynamic continues they will lose. The New York Times' most recent analysis shows 172 electoral votes solidly in Obama's camp, and 79 leaning to Obama. That would leave Obama needing only 19 of the 60 electoral votes they categorize as "toss ups." Obama shows slight leads in most of these "toss up states." Campaigns that are confident in their current game plan don't throw long "Hail Mary" passes like the Palin nomination.

* They have come to agree that the basic premise of Obama's candidacy is correct: that in an electorate where 82% of the voters think the country is on the wrong track, the need for change trumps experience.

* They recognize clearly that the "enthusiasm gap" among their base voters dogs their chances for success. Democrats are mobilized, their base is positively apathetic.

Palin's selection was intended to change the dynamics of the race. It had three goals:

1). First and foremost it was intended to energize the party's grassroots, right wing evangelical base. This is the one goal it might actually help achieve. Early reports show that the selection of the ultra right wing, anti-choice Palin thrilled the James Dobson's of the world and their followers. This will increase the importance of the superb field mobilization efforts the Obama Campaign is developing in the 18 swing states -- and especially Ohio and Michigan. It also reemphasizes the enormous importance of the voter registration efforts being conducted by the campaign and many Democratic leaning organizations.

2). Second, Palin's choice was intended to reframe the McCain-Palin ticket as "pro-change." McCain's high command hoped that in and of itself the appointment of a relatively young, dynamic woman would help reframe the appearance of his candidacy. But here their gambit will ultimately fall flat.

More than anything else voters want change in our economy. They are sick of the status quo because their incomes have dropped and prices have increased. They believe that their kids are staring at a future of less opportunity than their own. They know that this is not the American dream.

The problem is that Palin completely supports the Bush-McCain economic program that in seven and a half years has taken Americans from the most prosperous period in human history to a period of economic stagnation and decline.

And when it comes to foreign policy -- the other area where voters really want change -- she brings nothing at all.

In other words Palin's appointment does nothing to alter the basic dynamics of the race: the choice between more of the same, or the change we need.

3). Finally, McCain's advisers hoped to use the choice of Palin to attract women. But there is a real question whether it will attract a net increase of women voters aside from consolidating the conservative women they would likely have gotten anyway.

Many of the Democratic women who had backed Clinton were positively insulted by the notion that they would back anyone with two x chromosomes, no matter what her positions on crucial issues -- not matter how thin her resume. A Denver Post editorial paraphrased Lloyd Bentsen's famous line from his debate with Dan Quayle: "I served with Hillary Clinton. I know Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a friend of mine. You, Sarah Palin, are no Hillary Clinton." In initial polling from Gallup, among Democratic women -- including many who supported Hillary Clinton - 9% say that Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, and 15% less likely - a net negative of 6%.

Palin will have no appeal among independent women in places like the Philadelphia or Detroit suburbs that are strongly pro-choice and anti-gun. The fact that she denies the importance of global warming and planned to sue the EPA to prevent the Polar Bear from being added to the Endangered Species list will seal the deal.

In fact, in early polling, men are more likely to be impressed by Palin than women.

But that's not all. Palin's nomination also carries with it a number of major new problems for McCain.

Most importantly it completely eliminates any advantage McCain had on the question of "experience" and cuts the legs out from under his entire "not ready to lead" attack on Obama. To quote Jake Tapper of ABC, her lack of experience makes Barack Obama look like Robert Byrd. Just 20 months ago she was the part time mayor of Wasilla - a town of 9,000. Unless you count living in a state that is across the Bering Straight from Siberia, she has zero experience with anything remotely resembling foreign or security policy. And she has only been Governor of Alaska for two and a half years.

Voters want their leaders to be on their side. In this case that means they must favor the change people believe they need. But they also want a threshold level of experience -- demonstrated ability as a strong effective leader -- especially from a President. Barack Obama spent eight years as a State Senator (representing a district 10 times as large as Wasilla), and four years in the U.S. Senate. In addition he has demonstrated his abilities as a strong effective leader by organizing one of the most effective campaigns for President in American history. He has shown his ability to hire great staff, to manage a sprawling 50 state organization, and effectively communicate and inspire millions of Americans.

His recent trip to Europe and the Middle East, his effective campaign, his depth of knowledge of the issues, his temperament and judgment -- have begun to convince most voters that he has passed the "commander-in-chief" test.

It will be hard for most American's to imagine Sarah Palin as Commander-in-Chief. That's not because she is a woman. People can now easily imagine Hillary Clinton in that role. It's because they have no reason on earth to believe that she could fill the role of the most powerful leader in the world.

I originally thought that Palin's choice would take the question of experience off the table in this race. Now I believe it will put that question back on the table -- in reverse. It will also serve to reemphasize the ever present question of McCain's age. At 72 the actuarial tables say he has a little less than a one in six chance of not surviving his term. And that doesn't account for his history of health problems. That means that if Americans vote for the McCain-Palin ticket they have to seriously consider that she has at least a one in six chance of actually serving as commander-in-chief. Already, by 44% to 29%, the Rasmussen poll shows that they do not believe she is ready to be President.

By eliminating any advantage on the experience question, McCain has placed the full focus of the debate right where we want it: do Americans want the change we need, or more of the same. If that's the debate election day, we will win hands down.

Finally, McCain chose a running mate that is currently under investigation for using here position as Governor to settle a score with her ex-brother-in-law who was also a state trooper. This investigation may provide a good portion of the narrative that defines Palin for most Americans. It will raise three questions in voter's minds:

* Abuse of office for personal ends. Alaska's former commissioner of public safety claims that the Governor fired him -- at least in part because he refused to fire her ex-brother-in-law who was involved in a bitter custody case with her sister.

* Vindictiveness. Palin's crusade against her ex-brother-in-law (who - in fairness -- does not sound like a very nice fellow) has apparently gone on for some time. Voters like tough. They don't like vindictive and mean.

* Administrative ability. Palin's replacement for commissioner of public safety had to resign two weeks after she appointed him because he had been reprimanded for sexual harassment in a previous job. So much for her ability to vet appointees.

Of course the final question the Palin appointment raises is McCain's own judgment and administrative ability. McCain had only talked to his new running made twice before he asked her to join the ticket. Someone said yesterday that they knew their barista at Starbucks better than McCain knew the person who -- if he were elected -- would be a heart beat away from stepping into the most powerful position in the World. What was he thinking?

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com.

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[californiademo]

Sen. McCain's choice of Sarah Palin is indeed a bad call. While Obama's resume may not be full in some areas, people have been getting to know the man for well over a year, and he's respected by many as a level-headed person possessed of resolve, good political skills, and high intelligence. In Palin's case, there won't be time to make such a judgment. I usually don't make much of alarmist claims about a candidate's incapacity to be president since there is no precise set of required skills. But in this case, I find it unsettling that someone who is unknown and untested at the national level could be in command of the armed forces if McCain's health gives out. I just don't see her being ready to match wits with Putin or battle al Qaeda. People with no experience tend to resort to bluster or let their underlings push them around, which can be deadly. One other big problem is the jaw-droppingly embarrassing Palin "defenses" we have heard in just the first few days, with the claim that she has foreign policy experience because Alaska is close to Russia being the worst. It must be excruciating for McCain surrogates to talk such nonsense about someone they probably don't know and in whose favor they were passed over. I don't think Hillary Clinton has weighed in yet on McCain's choice—no doubt a lot of people will be interested to hear what she has to say.

[Scorpio13]

I hope she weighs in soon. I'm sure she will find the right thing to say.

[hphoenix]

One more thing: I heard an older woman from one of the states the Appalacian mountains run through say about Hillary something like "What's a woman running for? She should be home with her husband." Ouch. But, I think there are more than a few very traditional women who might not like the idea of her leaving her children to be cared for by someone else, esp the baby.

[blueroses70]

My 70+ Appalachian relatives seem split, actually. At least a few of the older women LOVE Obama and have for a long time. The others are too conservative to go dem no matter what.

[jeniferdaniels]

I teach 17-20 yr olds at CC and majority of the girls/women said NO to a woman president because of their conservative views of a 'woman's role'

[HWBII]

Especially a baby with special needs.

[chronicBob]

This is the best analysis of the Palin decision I have read thus far, and I have no reason to believe it can be bettered! Hurricane Gustav will probably delay the disemmination of all the facts regarding Palin, but once it is generally understood how selfish and dangerous McCain's decision was in choosing her, his campaign will be finished.

Hunter S. Thompson summed up what will become the new slogan of the American voter:
"There's some sh*t we WON'T eat!"

[lunez32]

The wide eyed acceptance of Palin by the Republicans is evidence of their hopelessness in McCains campaign. He too was distraught by his inevitable defeat and made this desperate move in an attempt to simply even the playing field.

With this shocking pick for VP still fresh in the voters minds, they hit the internet and book stores looking for information on this "Sarah Palin". They are discovering just what this article points out, SHE SUCKS!!!!!!!!!

And I have to wonder what all the qualified Republican woman are feeling at this moment. They have worked hard to rise up in the ranks of one of the most male dominated political parties on earth. Surely they must feel that they have earned the spot.

The bottom line is, McCain won over a few votes, but probably lost more. Conservatives are going crazy over their perfect modal of a woman from the 50's. Moderates are jumping off ship. PUMA is practically ready to explode with excitement. Real HRC supporters are insulted and back on the Obama boat. Rush Limbaugh is singing. Mitt and his supporters are crying (possibly joining Hillarys supporters on the Obama boat). As for Obama and Biden, they know that with this disastrous choice by McCain, the election is theirs to lose. McCain has set himself up to fail, WATCH AND SEE.

[foolchild0]

I don't know- I really feel like Dems need to take Palin seriously, and not just write her off.

[Roses]

I think there's a difference in saying "take Palin seriously".
I think plenty of people take her seriously as a strategy that the McCain camp is using to unify the conservative "Christian" base. You know, all those people that are voting for McCain but holdng their noses. Their strategy is most likely going to succeed. However, most thinking voters do not credit her with the skill that is needed to be Vice President for a 72 y.o. man who is a cancer survivor. I'm sure that she would make an adequate city councilwoman of a semi-large city (if one agreed with her politics).....but VP....you have to be kidding!

Obama/Biden '08

[bitterindependent]

actually she is not being written off....she is just being vetted like the rest of the candidates.....that's why you don't pick a no-name to be you vp approximatly 60 days before election day...she seems like a likeable person.....it's just that mccain made a poor choice....

[Gary47]

Bingo. Given the main attitude shown here, Dems are in for a very rude awakening. Palin's a brilliant choice for the repub base and value-oriented independent voters. We gotta get our game on, big time.

[tlgeiger62]

I'm confident that no matter what all of us are posting and all the analysis that's coming, that Obama or Biden are working on how to approach all of this. I'm sure the weekend was devoted to looking at the entire thing.

I believe in these men and because of that, I can concentrate on other things to get them elected...getting voters registered and getting Obama's message out.

[Pepper14]

You are exactly right that the dems are making a serious mistake by attacking this woman so much and trying to make a joke out of this pick. A new poll out shows that Obama is only 1 point ahead of McCain now. I also think it is a mistake for the dems (Michael Moore and Dan Fowler to say this storm is a blessing and that god is against the GOP) that is sick to use this story for political gain.

[ImNotYourMom]

Okay, here's why I think John McCain was forced by his handlers to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate, and what is going to happen to her after November.

After the amazing Democratic convention, and Obama's stunning speech, McCain's people obviously got very scared. McCain has no hope of winning this election if the right wing religious zealots that form a significant part of the Republican "base" don't show up to the polls. They're never going to show up in numbers for McCain. They don't like him, and to his credit, he doesn't like them either. But he needs them. Enter the right wing religious zealot, telegenic hockey mom governor to excite the fanatical "base" to vote. She's obviously unqualified to serve as president , and obviously not McCain's first choice.

Here's what's I think is going to happen: Sarah Palin will never serve as Vice President. If McCain looses, she goes away and becomes another Quayle joke. If McCain wins - after the election, and probably before the inauguration, Palin will resign. She will be forced to by McCain's camp. But she will say that the stress is too much on her family, especially with the special needs infant she has, etc. McCain will then be free to nominate who he really wanted, probably Joe Lieberman, and the Senate will have to confirm his choice. McCain is using this woman to fire up the Republican "base" and will extricate himself from her when he's finished with her.

[NoOneSpecial]

The NY Times already has an article of what really happened and why, according to sources in his campaign.

Basically, McCain was ready and totally for picking Lieberman. Phil Graham was even pushing hard for this pick. But the judgment was finally made that the social conservative base would be outraged (the main issue being Lieberman is pro-choice) and their lack of support would too drastically undercut McCain's chances.

With no other contenders that would really shake things up, they went with Palin because Hillary was no longer in the running (this was shortly after Biden joined the Dem ticket), and she passed the social conservative ideological litmus test.

Voila, there's McCain VP pick.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/us/politics/31reconstruct.html?ref=politics

[HWBII]

Such is their disdain for government that they figure that anyone can be vice-president or president. Heck of a job, Brownie.

[Pepper14]

Your first mistake is to believe anything the NY Times prints.

[Mahi Joe]

I agree but I also think this quick selection of Palin caused some infighting between several camps within the GOP. McCain is no longer running his own campaign and was forced to make Romney and Pawlenty look like complete fools with this last minute decision to select Palin for VP. Mark my words, we will see a backlash from within the GOP. Already some conservatives have expressed their disdain for Palin and as we get closer to the actual election I will bet we some major defections from McCain's camp. I expect the big business faction of the GOP and the fundie christian faction of the GOP to go after each other next. Palin's only issue which she flaunts is her fight against corruption within big business and this by no means bodes well with their major supporters.

[lovethesinner]

I had the same thought. It's the only thing that makes sense. As Sherlock Holmes would say, "...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

last paragraph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherlock_Holmes#Holmesian_deduction

[drummer4]

You make a good point when you say how does any mother handle 5 young kids(one with downs syndrome) A truly good mother would question Palens judgement taking on this impossible task. It is selfish on her part to take on this V.P.obligation considering her family needs. I say family needs to come first in her situation. Palen must be overly ambitous? Again John McCain exhibits poor judgement and out of touch with expectations of family values

[larry278]

Yes, and Obama will find a pretext to drop Biden from his ticket which will then force McCain to drop Gov Palin from his ticket at once. The moon will be shown to be made of moldy cottage cheese. The election scheduled for 11/4/08 will be moved to 12/25/08 so that both McCain & Obama can each dragoon a candadate to run for VP. Moving the election for POTUS to 12/25/08 will be used as a pretext to move the swearing in back to March as it was in 1932. The USA will stick with a March innaguaration(sp) by pushing through ammendments to the US Constitution setting the March date, abolishing the office of VP, designating the Senate's Majority Leader as next in line for the Presidency. Russia will buy back Alaska. Gov Palin will overthrow Putin. Jordan & Israel will merge, then make itself a Muslim/Jewish state with a Muslim King & a Jewish chief minister. My blunt has burned down & I have to stop anyway because of HP's 250 word limit.

[Call me Sweety]

ImNotYourMom, Yes that is exactly what I've been thinking...great job......thanks

[franke9]

You maybe wrong everyone I know is spending a great deal of time focused on Ms Palin. I used to watch high school football games hail mary's can work. There are alot of pro choice pro gay marriage anti Bush anti war folks who want someone who really will take on special interests--we know its not Biden or H Clinton and from my reading it is not Barry Obama-- might be Ms Palin--watch out how much you elitest judge her--she maybe real!

[THEhillbilly]

"Most importantly it completely eliminates any advantage McCain had on the question of "experience" and cuts the legs out from under his entire "not ready to lead" attack on Obama."

News for you: Grandiloquent, done-nothing fledgling Obama is the candidate for president. Genuine done-little Palin is the candidate for vice president. If you don't see the significance of that contrast relative to your silly wishful thinking, let me know and I'll try to dumb it down for you.

Starting about 14 primaries ago, people started to wake up to the fact that Obama is not president material at this stage of his career. This trend is likely to continue and in fact accelerate. They were beginning to say, "Okay, you say we can believe in your 'change.' Tell us more than that about it." The democrats are carefully avoiding letting him try to answer that.

[JADE2002]

is it possible that she can be indicted?

[Querent]

It is possible, but unlikely to happen in the next two months, since no grand jury has been empaneled for the purpose of investigating her. Since she is the sitting governor, it is unlikely that the state Attorney General would be legally able to empanel a grand jury to investigate her, or to bring the matter before any existing and sitting grand jury. A special prosecutor would be needed. So the scenario would be that the Legislature speedily investigates, finds evidence of wrongdoing, and appoints a special prosecutor, who would then start his or her investigation from scratch. Two months is too short a time for all this. I don't see any way of shortcutting the process, especially since state courts could be required to rule on the legalities at any given step along the way. Then there might be appeals of the rulings. Chances are, the matter of whether Evita acted illegally will not be settled until sometime after President Obama has started his second term.

[Gary47]

They've yet to indict Bush, Cheney, Rove, etc., etc., etc....

[Squeglen]

McSame has affirmed to me that he is out of his mind thinking that by chosing Gov. Palin as his running mate will attract Hillary's supporters he is crazy. He is using her for the soul purpose of pandering to them and the conservatives who have not decided. This investigation the she is under is proving to be true and the fact that she gave birth is turning out to be a lie. There are numerous articles from Alaska and articles as well from the hospital that she "supposedly" gave birth at giving no evidence to Trig's birth.

Lie after lie is coming out about his "Soulmate" that the Republican party will be sorry that they nominated him for the Presidency. Also, if he uses his POW speech one more time I tink I will throw up. He could care less about ALL the POW men that are living on the streets all across this country and he never even voted for the bill that passed to give more medical help when they return home.

America, we are smarter then he thinks we are.

[cambridgedude]

Stick a fork in 'em. Methinks they're done!

[lw1899]

Methinks you're right. I smell a Democratic landslide.

[simonjl]

I'm from the UK, I've been in the states for a year...... I cannot believe the American people will believe anything other what this it really is..a cynical attempt to grab swing voters to keep the Republicans in power.....he's put party first before America, shame on you John McCain, you are no maverick, the same people who trashed you in 2000 are running your campaign...shame on you

[Pepper14]

If you live in the UK I don't really care what you think.

[newunderground]

Honor and integrity, indeed.

[OldSarg]

At this point all these arguments have no relevance. people are going to vote for Governor Palin because they see themselves in the Governor. She is a working woman, a mother to 5 kids, a wife, a business owner, a hunter, fisherman, ex cheerleader or basketball player, she can shoot a gun and seems like a REAL person. In the American world (our world) there is no City Park, Broadway, Taxi Cab or uppity eating establishments. We have diners, high school football, the great outdoors and we call it America. We cheer for our teams to win and don't pull our stars off the field when we are winning. When we lose, we lose with grace. We come together for a prayers on Sunday and wave at our neighbors. You don't know us but you think you know everything. You can continue to be as smart as you think you are and we will vote like we always do. We don't like those that just talk it. That's why we also walk it. See you at the polls.

[holyhandgrenaid]

The America you just prattled on about hasn't existed anywhere since the 50's except the mind of idealistic conservatives with no vision, not only for whats going on around them, but the future as well

[MoeJava]

I agree - the only people looking back in fondness for the idyllic "good old days" are those who were top dog at the time, and not subject to any discrimination or poverty.

[cct1984]

You go ahead and keep believing that; it's why you Dems continue to lose elections and why a Dem has never won on a liberal platform since the 60s.

[Johnagain]

"people are going to vote for Governor Palin because they see themselves in the Governor."

This is a big mistake and it is the reason that our country is in the mess that it is in. We are not supposed to vote for someone like ourselves. We are supposed to vote for someone far more qualified for the job than ourselves. That will most often be someone who does not go to McDonalds, go fishing on Saturdays, coach soccer, and volunteer for the PTA. You and I do that, but not people on the President track. What makes you think that someone like you or me is qualified for such a job if not the fact that you live with the delusion that you could actually do the job yourself? You can't. And neither could Bush, who many could identify with.

[californiademo]

Exactly so. John Stuart Mill used to get on the British middle class' case for their failure to strive for a higher degree of excellence in any area of life. So in the American context, we should have a president who is "just folks" and support a v.p. pick for the same reason. To give in to such foolishness isn't to honor Lincoln's statement about government being of, by, and for the people; it is to turn politics into tribalism when we should be be striving to make it a vehicle for helping citizens achieve the good life without treating them like children. The best way to promote this outcome is to vote for excellent candidates who will do their level best to promote better education, better health care, better international relations, etc. I’ll cast my vote for Obama/Biden.

[cct1984]

Your post highlights a lot of why you liberals continue to miss the boat on what's important to rural blue-collar workers and why you fail to connect with them. They neither want nor need some anointed elite to tell them what should be important to them or how to live their lives. You liberals, on the other hand, seem to believe that just because someone has a bunch of letters after their name or a fancy title, that that somehow imbues them with special knowledge about life and the world and that the rest of the benighted masses should therefore follow their lead--you couldn't be more wrong. I don't give a darn what elitist school Barry went too, or how many fancy titles he has, he doesn't know a darn thing about what's in my best interest. If you lib-tards want to sell your soul to some modern day pied piper, that's your business, the rest of us "dumb country folk" prefer to do our own thinking.

[Gary47]

As much as I'm in your camp, you're just proving his point. You're just intellectualizing. His whole point is about values - he sees himself (his values) in Palin. Nothing else matters - to him. And many other voters. Until Dems get clear about our values and comfortable championing them in public we'll never get voters like this guy. Remember years ago Hillary saying "It takes a village"? Its true and its a wonderful expression of one of our core values. Well, the republicans made mincemeat of it and not one single Democrat office holder got up in public and defended her statement. Until Dems grow a pair and can do that we're toast.

[loper2008]

People are going to vote for whoever they think will help them keep their jobs and pay their mortgages. McCain cannot run a campaign of fear anymore, nor does he have an attack dog to go after Obama. A lot of people are rightfully more afraid of Palin having any say in national and foreign policy than Obama handling our wars. McCain/Palin come across as risky right now, Obama/Biden do not.

[AndrewS102]

Oooo, very good point about attack dog loper!

[cct1984]

Barry is no more qualified to be President than Palin is. In fact, since she has more executive experience--which is more relevant to the duties of the President--one could make a case that Palin is MORE qualified than Barry. He spent the majority of his time as a state senator voting "present" and only has 148 working days as a congressional senator; the rest of the time he's spent running for President. You Dems, in your infinite wisdom, have nominated the least experienced and qualified candidate for the top spot on your ticket. Which, by the way, is why he needed Biden--to shore up his weakness on national security and foreign affairs. If Barry gets in trouble, daddy Biden will be there to hold his hand.

[Pepper14]

Know one is running a campaign of fear more than the dems. They are still running against Bush which will backfire and going after Palin is a big mistake because they are just coming off a primary where they threw Hillary overboard.

[Nim]

I don't think that your fellow citizens in your "world" wouldn't be too happy about the fact that McSame wants to tax your health insurance.

McSame...A Tax and Spend conservative!

[Voxlisa999]

OldSarg- do we really want the President to be just like the guy/gal next door? Do you really believe your neighborhood NASCAR Dad or Soccer Mom could negotiate Nuclear Arms Treaties with world leaders? Do they have the knowledge to do that which is just one of hundreds of complex issues we face? Palin doesn't have the education or experience. Nothing wrong with that- we don't either. Obama: degree International Relations from Columbia -wrotethesis on Soviet Nuclear Disarmament. Harvard Law & teaches Constitution. (10/02) speech Obama gave saying that the Iraq war was made up by Rove, Wolfowitz, Cheney- that it was a lie -he was right. Look what electing the "guy next door" has gotten us into? Bush had Poppy and never had to work to get where he got. Don't we want a truly extraordinary intelligent person to be President? Even foreign leaders all over the world treated him with enormous respect. Why not have a President who people actually want to listen to and has great support internationally? However, Obama has lived the "guy next door" life too. He turned down the path to riches and prestige, shunning a big Wall street law firm or a Supreme Court clerkship in order to go register voters in Chicago and get Bill Clinton elected in 1992. Obama has the cultural background you want plus the rare intelligence and education and most importantly, the intense burning desire to help others and make our country the best it can be.

[The5thW]

Dems are dropping the ball by letting the lack of experience meme be framed by an army of paid trolls. The public needs to understand the implications that Obama has inspired the confidence and enthusiastic backing of a national and international Who's Who of wise and highly experienced leaders who have put their own credibility behind his leadership at unnecessary personal risk. The Hagels, the Sarkosky's, the King Abdullahs, are not backing someone of Palin's stature, yet this equivalency meme is going unrefuted to a very uneducated electorate to some effect, as Rove intended. This is not an attack on Palin, but a recognition that our 5th grader electorate needs help deconsrtucting this assault on common sense.

[Querent]

If you were going to stake someone in a poker game, who would you want to stake: the player with years of experience, who hasn't won a hand all game, or the new guy who has a pile of chips in front of him? Experience only counts when it's experience of how to be successful. McCain has plenty of experience, but all he knows how to do is refight the Vietnamese war. He was already in that war. it didn't turn out too well.

How did McCain learn how to win wars? Certainly not from the war he was in. He claims that the guys who wanted to keep doing more of what wasn't working were right. How does he know? Why does he not consider ten years of failure proof that those guys didn't know what they were doing?
McCain has a frame he puts on reality. If the frame is wrong, he discards reality, and keeps the frame.

[cadbury]

Your analysis is spot on...to a point. But the current "frame" is that McCain was right about the surge, and that he actually pushed for it before Bush himself. To the extent people believe that the surge was a success on Election Day, he wins on this issue big time.

[frankguest]

Excellent analysis. It also demonstrates McCain's hypocrisy in claiming that Obama doesn't put "country first." By choosing Palin, McCain clearly is putting winning first, country last.