Why it's Good News for Democrats that Polls Say One In Four Clinton Backers Still Aren't Sold on Barack
How could it possibly be good news for Democrats that polls show that roughly one in four primary voters who supported Clinton still say they aren't sold on Barack?
Simple. Most national polls also show that, while the race is tight, Obama maintains a narrow lead. As the Democratic Convention and campaign proceed, the odds are very good that the more these voters know about Obama and McCain, the more they will ultimately come home to the Democratic Party. These unconvinced Democrats represent 4% to 5% of the entire General electorate. If they move to Obama, his lead over McCain will substantially increase -- particularly in the key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan where many reside.
Obama has an unusually strong appeal to independent voters and young people. That's what accounts for his current narrow lead. The fact that one of the campaign's key target constituencies includes voters who normally vote Democratic, greatly increases the likelihood of victory for the Democratic ticket. The odds are good that voters who have traditionally voted Democratic will ultimately break for the Democrat.
If the situations were reversed -- if McCain were slightly ahead and had not yet consolidated most Republicans behind his candidacy -- Democrats would have a much more difficult task. Here, the odds would be equally good that the unconvinced Republicans would ultimately break overwhelmingly for McCain when they finally walked into the voting booth.
Joe Biden's selection as Obama's running mate is aimed squarely at bringing those reluctant Democratic voters home. They are mainly older white working class voters. They don't need to be convinced the country needs change. People whose incomes are stagnant and face ever rising prices don't have to be convinced of that. But they don't want change that they fear will make things worse either. They have to be reassured that Obama will in fact give them change they can believe in -- that from their point of view Obama is "safe" pick. They need to be convinced that he understands people like them -- that even though he's African American and grew up in Hawaii -- he will reliably stand up for white working class people who live in Scranton or Dayton or Grand Rapids. They need to believe that he's one their side.
Biden's choice itself sends that message. The Catholic kid from a working class family connects instinctively to older working class Democrats. Having him on the ticket to validate Obama should help enormously over the next two months. And Biden is a battler who will not hesitate to draw clear distinctions between the "more of the same" Bush-McCain trickle down economic program and Obama's bottom up vision for the future.
The more these voters get to know Obama, the more comfortable they will feel. But just as importantly, the more they learn about the real McCain, the more they will come to understand that he's no longer the "maverick" of 2000. Instead -- especially when it comes to the economy -- a McCain Presidency would be nothing more than a third Bush term.
Obama and his campaign can do a lot to attract unconvinced Democrats. But the people who are most important at closing the deal with this group are other rank and file working class Democrats. The most persuasive messengers in the battle to convince these voters are their own neighbors. That's why if we don't want to wake up on November 5th facing four more years of right wing rule, every progressive in America needs to enlist today in the Obama field campaign.
The Obama campaign is setting up the best field operation in the history of American presidential politics. If you want to make sure that reluctant Democrats get with the Obama program the field program gives you a way to personally do something about it.
Get on the phone, go door to door and help recruit an army of other volunteers -- especially volunteers from neighborhoods rich in unconvinced Democrats; volunteers who themselves will pound on doors and call their neighbors, and put up Obama yard signs. That kind of voter contact sends the most convincing message around: "My neighbors Henry, and Bill and Sandy support Obama, so he must be OK."
Human beings are pack animals. They travel in packs. They like to be in the mainstream. They feel safety in numbers. They want their friends and neighbors to validate their choices -- especially if they seem a little risky. It's up to us to build the organizations that allow people's neighbors to tell them directly that Barack Obama is safe -- that he's on their side.
Communication like that is more important than all the great TV spots and cleaver earned media plays in the world. And it's the kind of communication that every progressive in America can help to generate.
More than any presidential campaign in modern political history, the outcome of this campaign will depend on the work of millions of everyday volunteers: persuading voters who are not yet in our corner, and to motivating those who won't vote unless they are mobilized. That makes this an election that is truly ours to win or ours to lose. The outcome is literally in our hands.
Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com. This week he is attending the National Democratic Convention in Denver.
For more Huffington Post coverage from the Democratic National Convention, visit our Politics @ the DNC page, our Democratic Convention Big News Page, and our HuffPost bloggers' Twitter feed, live from Denver.
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There are two components of the Hillary vote that Obama will not get.
1) Those who are racists. Among her supporters were one's who would not vote for Obama because of his color (not all racists are Republican). McCain or not voting will be their choice.
2) Neocons and Israeli Firsters. These voters wish for us to continue our aggressive role in the Middle-East and understood that Hillary would be more likely to drag her feet on ending our Iraq involvement than Obama. They will also vote for McCain or sit it out.
These two categories aggregate about 15-20% of the Clinton primary voters. The rest will vote for Obama except for 1-2% radical feminists who believe in withholding their favors when they don't get their way.
Among other things revealed during the Watergate scandals was Nixon's commissioning and implementing "Dirty Tricks." I bring this up to frame a question: How honest, to say nothing of accurate, are these polls slicing so-called Clinton fans into those now planning to vote for Obama, those who won't vote and those who'll now vote for McCain?
How do we know whether or not pollstera aren't being bamboozled by shifty Republicans who tell the earnest college kid on the phone just what Fox wants to hear: They're avid Clintonistas and now - just like the current Republican TV ads tell us - they're so upset by Obama's treatment of their heroine they will vote for McCain who diametrically opposes just about everfything Hillary stands for.
Makes sense.
I wonder as well. Especially when Sen O leads women in gneral by 20 points... I find it extremely disingenuous that the pollsters have to try so hard to find some voters that Sen O has a "problem" attracting.
I wouldn't count on the hardcore Clintonistas. They're like Colonel Kurtz in "Apocalypse Now". They've obviously gone quite mad. O needs to work the blue collar independents and make sure the youth vote turns out. If he can seal the deal with both, it's gonna be a landslide for him. 340 EV.
I know a couple of hardcore Clintonistas who are so bitter about her not being the nominee that they said they will vote for McCain. They are also rabidly, rabidly pro-choice, so I wonder how they will feel if McCain wins and gets to install a couple of Supreme Court justices.
It's odd with the Clintonistas I know, it is as though they take Hillary's not receiving the nomination personally, as though she represented every slight, every missed opportunity in their lives, and they seem to project Obama as the person who created these personal slights and missed opportunities, as though he stole them from these women himself.
I understand HRC supporters are angry, but do any of you place any part of the responsibility for her loss at the feet of the campaign staff and her executive ability? By their own admission they were "dysfunctional" and "unhappy". There were factions between Bill folks and her folks that were never solved, and they squandered a lot of money and time. How could they have no plan that involved anything after Feb 5? As an executive, how/why didn't she pull the ranks together? (Bad CEO behavior often leads to fatal outcome for the company) And the canards about the sniper fire (Refusal to tell the truth instead of constructing reality. Really reminded me of "I did not have relations.
How could Mk Penn not know that Dem rules were not Repub rules if he'd been around through the Bill years? I respected HRC for years, but I had a hard time with her "wide-eyed ingenue" rush to victimhood when the cutthroat game she helped create backfired against her. Help me out here folks, not with diatribes but with dialogue. Thanks...
As a Kucinich supporter who didn't want either Obama nor Clinton to be the candidate this year, I think there are too many people who are obsessed with personalities here. This election was not about just whether a certain personality, either Obama, or Clinton (or McCain) is elected president.
It's about nothing less than rescuing American from the bottomless pit down which failed conservative and neoconservative policies are dragging us.
Neither Clinton nor Obama were the progressive champion I was hoping for. However, comparing McCain/Romney to Obama/Biden is no contest. I want everyone on both sides to get over their hurt and disappointed feelings.
If McCain gets elected, he will continue Bush's failed conservative and neoconservative policies to disastrous results. Two McCain Supreme Court appointments will be disastrous for women, people of color and gays/lesbians. Our treasury will be further bankrupted. Our economy and military will be further stretched and weakened. The trail of destruction Bush is leaving at home, abroad and to our constitution will only continue.
Please put aside one's obsession with personalities to see the big picture. I would expect Obama people to support Clinton if she had won the nomination, just like I am voting for Obama.
Keep saying this, "It's not about me. It's not about me. It's not about me. It's about whether our country, not to mention our planet, will have a future. It's about the future of our country."
You people are so foolish...
Or McCain to have some ghastly age related stroke or cardiac incident the day before the election and Bush gets to stall the election until a suitable neocon can be found to steal the election.
This is rather Pollyannish. How do you know more Hillary supporters won't defect as time goes by, and other non-Obama diehards, since that's exactly what's been happening to date?
i would also like to add that O supporters should stop bashing clinton supporters who don't fall in line with what they want them to do. this only creates more resistance and anger and takes the focus off of the real enemy and the real problems. you attract more bees with honey than with vinegar. the truth is that most hillary supporters have already come over to obama and those that haven't, well then that's their decision. leave them alone.
i also have to point the finger at the media that just LOVES to stoke these flames so they can have a juicy story. don't let the media divide you and yet again decide the election for us!
Well said, Thanks so much.
Every rotten remark read about HRC as well as BC makes the HRC supporters who ARE voting for O disgusted and pushes them further into marginalization. I have never demonized O. I also take the PUMA
to task but it is very hard to tolerate these hate mongers about the C's/ That is the bashing that needs to stop if there will be unity.
I get being angry at people who put down O.
I don't get the behavior of those who claim to want unity but continue with their divisiveness.
Anyway, thanks.
I hope you're right about the Hillary Divas.
It's amazing that so many would be bitter enough to vote for McCain to spite Obama. If there are as many new voters in November as predicted, maybe the Divas can be rendered irrelevant.
Good point. Logically, those who preferred Clinton in the primaries are more likely to vote for Obama than McCain in November. Three fourths of the voters in that group have already reached that logical conclusion. Some of the remaining fourth of Clinton supporters (representing 4% or 5% of the general electorate) have not yet come to terms with the fact that they can't have something they want very badly.
Perhaps when that group realizes that either Obama or McCain WILL become president next January - and that presidents can provoke wars, nominate supreme court justices for life, and use vetoes to block legislation, such as health care reform - SOME of them may choose between the two currently viable candidates. SOME who choose between Obama and McCain may choose the one whose values, goals, and plans are overwhelming similar to Clinton's instead of the one whose values, goals, and plans are diametrically opposed to Clinton's.
That's as far as logic can take us. The good news is that there won't be many voters left in the remaining group. It's already down to 4% or 5% of the general electorate.
I find it contradictory that Obama supporters (not you) continuously mock the intelligence and emotional stability of Hillary-to-McCain voters, and then make this argument, that perhaps they will all come around and make the choice rationally. For one, this assumes that the only rational choice is Obama based on which party is better--there are other rational arguments that Obama's nomination brings into play, namely which candidate is more experienced and therefore trustworthy. But it could also be that this percentage of Hillary voters are just like most American voters, people who vote based on the beer test or other knee-jerk reaction to personal characteristics. No amount of appealing to the Democrats-good- Republicans-evil worldview can cancel all of that out.
How wrong you are. There's a reason Obama has been slipping in the polls. It's because people are seeing more of him and trusting him less. Of course the convention will give him a temporary boost but that won't be enough. He's got some serious problems. Hillary supporters don't like him. Middle class people know sooner or later (if elected) he'll suck them dry with more taxes. And young people with short attention spans have already gotten tired of Obama's same old song. Listening to YES I CAN is like listening to a hit record from two seasons ago that. There's still some nostalgia there but the excitment is gone.
And how exactly will the bush-mccain adventure be paid for if not with higher taxes?????
Obviously.
Instead of making stuff up, why don't you site some facts? First, regarding taxes, people earning $250K or less will receive a reduction in their taxes. Those making more than that amount can expect an increase. As our national debt approaches 10 trillion, how do you expect us to pay for that? A 10 percent reduction in corporate taxes like McCain proposes?? Also, remember McCain lamely answering Rick Warren's question on what his definition of rich is? McCain thinks if you make over 5 million you're rich. 4 million? why that's middle class.... These and more are what your choices are...pay attention to policy...
Nah, what they're seeing more of are McCain's misleading, psychologically manipulative smear ads. Same old swift boat stuff. That's what's really stale. Can't believe some people still fall for that garbage.
Great post, Robert. Thank you!
I especially liked the insight that people need to be reassured of their choices when doing something they perceive as a little off-beat. I will go out and check to make sure my Obama yard sign is still up right now! I will also drop by the field office this week.
I personally do not believe many so-called Hillary supporters will vote for the people that gave us: Iraq, Alito, Roberts, the biggest deficit in history, selling out New Orleans, little help for the environment; continued dependency on foreign oil......a
"That kind of voter contact sends the most convincing message around: "My neighbors Henry, and Bill and Sandy support Obama, so he must be OK.""
You have got to be kidding me!!!! Isn't this the same kind moronic logic that got us the past 7 years?????????
No!!!!! For god's sake NOOOOOOO!
Obama gets my vote when he convinces me that he is the best candidate. HE HAS NOT DONE THAT YET! No matter what o-bots I'm surrounded by, I'm not going to be convinced until he does otherwise. I don't trust the man. If you'd like to dismiss my skepticism on someone who's taken politically convenient positions for all of his political career as racism go ahead, that says more about you and your issues than it does about my factual reasons for not wanting to vote for this guy.
He needs to stop with the vacations and stop with the preaching and stop already with the sanctimonious hypocrisy and take some hard stands on issues. If he then seems like he represents my views, then and only then can he have my vote.
So, i'd get some help for that repressed xenophobia you are experiencing, if I were you.
The fact that you used a demeaning term like "o-bot" shows your anger and hostility. So, be honest dude, you are not going to vote for him, no matter what he says or does. Which means the problem is with you, not him.
Just sayin' - when people insist they don't know enough about a guy who has been totally transparent, and whose positions are clearly stated, and whom the current administration has followed the lead of, it usually means they are closet rac,ist or closet xeno,phobic, lack the emotional maturity to look closely at themselves in a mirror, and flail around like a fish out of water coming up with -excuses- for why they can't possibly accept the guy.
Damned right, I'm hostile, and angry. I'm tired of having my viewpoints bashed and ignored without even a hearing.
He hasn't been totally transparent, just sayin' it don't make it so, when facts don't back you up. His positions are mobile, as he has shown. This is not always a bad thing, W has shown us how horrible rigidity is, but I don't agree with O's slipping and sliding on the issues he's been slipping and sliding on. Saying so isn't being xenophobic, stop projecting your liberal guilt, some of us have nothing to be guilty about :-p (despite our liberality)
Jumping to ad hominem attacks, that my dear is the what the closeted (or not so) -phobes of various flavors do. My point has been that if you take the blinders off and look at what he's saying, how's he's saying, and his official record, he certainly has NOT made his case. You're the one bringing all the other bovine fecal matter to the table. It has no place here.
FYI: I'm not xenophobic, racist or a dude. It would help to get ones facts straight before one starts to sling mud. You know nothing about my ethnicity, or my attitude about those of other ethnicites etc. I have no problem with either the melanin content of my own dermis nor that of any others. Rushing to make assumptions is what prejudice is all about, and I'm not the one who's guilty of it here.
Exactly how is McCain better? How does he meet your exacting standards while Obama fails to satisfy you? McCain has said nothing of relevance about what he would do as President.
He says "The surge worked" and "victory with honor in Iraq".
To support a candidate is to be a bot?
Brilliant post there, McCain bot.
I'm satisfied enough with Obama's choice of Obama, though he's far from ideal, but complements him well with his official foreign policy expertise over the past 35 years. I'm frankly disgusted that Obama should have to "prove" to anyone that he's a "safe" pick simply because of his skin color, diverse cultural background, biracial gene pool, ecumenical religious upbringing or any other eclectic factors that should only concern the most bigoted voters imaginable. Through the Democratic primary process and his lifetime career as a Constitutional lawyer & professor, he has amply earned the right to be the Democratic Presidential nominee. No one can honestly argue that Clinton's delegate count or popular vote was ever close or superior to that of Obama. So-called Clinton supporters who plan to vote for McCain may as well join Jim Jones' suicide pact and go the way of the satanic cult depicted in the film "Bad Dreams" who self-immolated in the movie's opening scene. I'd never advocate suicide, but their collective behavior amounts to this in political terms of the highest order. My qualms about Obama & Biden that would tempt me to vote for McKinney & Clemente will not detract from my respect for him as a public servant or candidate. He's in an unprecedented position to progressively alter our national course.
What makes you so sure that voting for a Democrat would be "coming home" for these Hillary voters?
Aren't they the famous "Reagan Democrats"? Haven't they been swing voters as much or more than Democratic voters in many an election of recent decades? Since LBJ, perhaps? Sure, the Democratic party should, rationally, be home to the blue collar voter.
That Hillary brought them home is a profound statement about her appeal -- and a surprise given that this isn't exactly the "feminist" voting bloc! Don't ask me why blue collar voters are so quick to vote against their personal interests. But, Obama's got his work cut out for him.
I agree. Obama should be over to win more of these voters over the next couple months. He certainly won't lose anymore votes in this group.
I'm just gonna say it -- this article's thesis fails to account for one thing: Obama is a black man. Democrats are prone to the same racist tendencies as anyone else.....a
What's even more tragic -- Obama or his supporters can no longer point this out, or bring up race AT ALL without being accused of "playing the race card." Funny, the same didn't hold true for Clinton and her supporter's use of gender. Reducing any mention of race to a derogatory playing of a "race card" is classic Karl Rove tactics -and any progressive thinking indvidual should be ashamed of themselves for buying into it.
Obama won't lose this race because of race but because his losing -- and losing big time -- is an essential prerequisite for reforming the Democratic Party whose process was anything but democratic.
What are you talking about?
If you think this presidential race is an "essential prerequisite" for anything besides determining who will have an incredible amount of power for the next four years, please give this issue more thought.
I can only speak for where I live (Florida), but I think people are underestimating just what kind of an idiot McCain looks like. I know senior citizens who were 100% McCain supporters in 2000, that wouldn't vote for him today under any circumstances. So-called "good ol' boys" who think McCain's too stupid to be in the White House. People who, well, *are* a bit racist, are reminding themselves that Sen. Obama's mother is white, and if they vote, they'll vote Democrat this year.
These people won't admit it to the press, or a pollster-- they speak quietly (and reluctantly) about the election. Most admit that we're headed in the wrong direction, and we need something different, even if it's something which (to them) is unpalatable.
I'm not saying race won't play a factor. There are people who would cut their own right arm off before voting for a black man, and will sneer at a President Obama. There are people who would rather vote their hatred of his skin color, or even his gender, rather than the best interests of the United States. But everyone I've met who considers what's best for the country, is leaning Obama.
It doesn't help to say it. If the people you're trying to attune to their racist behavior don't perceive it, you'll only get negative blowback.
I'd like the O-campaign to continue to throw the "R" word around willy-nilly, since I am after all supporting McCain.
oh good, you got to the part where you got the lobotomy in the second paragraph.
THANK YOU! ...for finally addressing the 800 lb. elephant in the room that everybody seems to be trying hard to avoid.
Barack Obama has been running for President for 2 years. His website is loaded with even the most minute detail of who he is and what his platform represents. So for anyone to claim they "don't know who he is" they're just not being truthful. I also hear claims of those who will vote for McCain because they don't like what some Obama supporters said on blogs and websites they felt disrespected Hillary Clinton. How crazy is this??? Who in their right mind really decides who to vote for based on the opinions of 3rd and 4th party individuals with NO connection to Obama or his campaign???
Many people have racist views and beliefs even when they don't necessarily think of themselves as a racist. So when people say they won't vote for Obama because they think he's arrogant or they think he treated Hillary unfairly, either they've mistaken the Presidential election for an episode of AMERICAN IDOL, or they're allowing under-the-surface racial views to cloud their intelligence.
Is it really worth throwing the country, the economy, the international value of the dollar, and our standing in the world further down the drain and closer to potential ruin because you think someone is arrogant? WAKE UP PEOPLE!
Look, when you evaluate a politician for such a high office, you look at what and how's he's done stuff before. Sure he's been running for this office for 2 years, and before that he didn't do a whole lot in the senate, he still hasn't explained all his "present" votes (which on some of those issues really requires and explanatio
Stop ignoring the actual issues, and stop making excuses, hold the guys feet to the fire, if you can't do it now, what hope have you if he's elected? No more imperial presidencies!!!
That's what playing the race card so consistently and constantly does. If you choose to make it all about race, so be it, no amount of rational argument will sway you. The reality is that this is NOT why people who aren't enamored of him aren't voting for him.
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