Why the Long Primary Battle with Clinton Will Actually Help Obama Win in November

Listen to the talking heads drone endlessly about Obama's drubbing in Kentucky and Clinton's superior appeal among working class whites in Appalachia, and it is hard not to believe that the continuing primary battle won't hurt Obama in the fall. In fact, just the opposite is true. Here's why:

It will all be over soon enough. Notwithstanding his loss in Kentucky, his big win in Oregon put Obama at 1,957 delegates, according to RealClearPolitics.com. That is only 69 delegates from the magic number of 2,026 set by Democratic Party rules to clinch the nomination. There are only 301 delegates left to allocate, of which 215 are superdelegates. Obama just needs 23% of those remaining delegates.

Now that Obama has accumulated an absolute majority of the elected, pledged delegates, the already steady movement of superdelegates to his column will increase. It is likely he will pick up at least 36 delegates in the remaining three primaries. That would leave him needing only 33 more superdelegates, which he would pick up in a couple of days.

Even if the Rules Committee of the DNC seats all of the delegates from Michigan and Florida, the math doesn't materially change. Let's say the Committee allocated 10% more of the Michigan and Florida delegates to Clinton than Obama. Between them, Michigan and Florida would have had 366 delegates -- so that would only net Clinton 37 delegates. Even that would leave Obama needing only one in three of the superdelegates remaining today after the last primary -- and remember that since Super Tuesday he has far outstripped Clinton in the proportion of superdelegates he has accumulated.

The long Democratic primary season has engaged millions of new voters. Every night in most big cities the sportscast reports the hockey scores. For the many people who don't follow hockey, those scores go in one ear and out the other. They don't stick. The same is true for most normal people when it comes to politics, at least until this spring.

Now millions of formerly non-political Americans have started following politics. The primaries have become the most engaging reality TV show around. They've become a sporting event, a drama. My formerly non-political life insurance agent came to see me last week. She's never done anything political in her life. Now she's hooked. She wants to volunteer for Obama.

This new engagement in the Democratic contest is a bonanza for our prospects this fall. In Indiana, the combined Democratic primary turnout was 129% of the total voter that John Kerry got in the general election in 2004. That is unheard of.

History shows that once people vote in Democratic primaries they are much more likely to vote Democratic in general elections.

In general, people are more likely to "act themselves" into a belief or commitment than to be convinced by argument. The 80,000 people who attended the Portland rally for Obama would never have gone had there not been a long primary to necessitate it. The act of attending that rally will do more than dozens of commercials will do to guarantee their commitment and their passion for the Democratic candidate this fall.

The same is true for the tens of thousands who banged on doors or picked up the phone - or argued with a neighbor about the campaign.

The long primary has forced the Obama campaign to develop organizations in all 50 states. Generally, presidential campaigns develop organizations in a few primary states and then go on to develop organizations in the few "in-play" general election states. By forcing Obama to create organizations in every state, the long primary season has helped enormously to broaden the general election playing field. This year, there will be strong, experienced Obama organizations in every state in America.

The battle has hugely increased Democratic registration. In-play states like Nevada that started the year with a majority of Republican registrants, now have a majority of Democrats. The New York Times reports that well over half of new registrants in Oregon were 30 or younger, and that of the 83,000 voters who changed parties this year, a large majority switched to Democratic.

The long primary fight has battle-hardened the Obama organization. Most of Obama's top field people have now been through four or five tough primary contests. That experience has taught even the greenest organizer to "think like a political organizer." It has taught thousands of organizers and volunteers the nuances of political organizing that are only learned through practice.

Great organizations are more than the sum of their parts. They develop distinct values and procedures that combine to form strong organizational cultures. The problem with political organizations is that they are "thrown together." Strong cultures need time to develop. The long primary season has provided that time and practice. It will massively strengthen our ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of volunteers and millions of voters in the fall.

The continuing primary drama has swelled the number of individual Obama donors. Obama received contributions from 200,000 new donors last month alone. The huge Internet fund raising base will provide a massive political advantage over McCain this fall. It would never have grown so large had the primary battle not continued.

The long primary campaign has battle hardened the candidate. Great long distance runners train for the Olympics by running in the mountains where the oxygen is thin. The tough contest has sharpened Obama's already formidable skills and those of his top advisers as well.

The most difficult issues have already been vetted. The tough primary forced the Reverend Wright controversy -- and the issue of race in general -- to be fully examined by the media and public. The same goes for other standard Republican attacks. Much better that these issues be raised in March than in October. Much better that the voters see Obama win primaries -- and win the nomination -- after dealing with these issues. And of course, it has given Americans the chance to get used to the idea of an African American president.

For many Americans that has happened. While Obama might have less appeal than Clinton among working class white Appalachians, he won 57% of the white vote in mostly-white Oregon -- including 53% of those earning under $50,000 per year.

Obama's big trump card in the fall election is his ability to change the electorate - to register and mobilize millions of voters who have not voted before. The long primary season has set the stage for a fall campaign that does just that. It will place dozens of new states into play. It will change the formula for winning traditional swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

In the end, the long primary season has set the stage for what could be a transformational election that sweeps Obama into the presidency, and substantially bolsters Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.

Comments

[rixxk]

These arguments are similar to the ones offered by the Democrats in 1980, and unfortunately will have the same results. A Republican victory in the fall. The Superdelegates of 2008 are presiding over a party split destined to lead to a debacle in November that will reverberate through several election cycles .

[BLinCincinnati]

1980 is no where close to the same. If you look with a narrow lense at just the primary itself, sure, it's similar. But the political landscape, the shape the country is in, the challenges being faced right now, and everything else to consider when you look at the bigger picture... it's not even close to the same.

1980 was also a year where a weak sitting president went up against a strong challenger and speaker in Ronald Reagan. John McCain is no Ronald Reagan.

[bgregs]

Actually, until the hostage crisis really took off, Raygun was perceived as what he was, an intellectually weak former actor, with moronic ideas. The combination of the convention fight and the Iranian hostage crisis caused people to think twice about the (then) most dangerous president in history!

[dhinds]

Part C:

So what's at stake is the viability of the Democratic Party. Obama, Edwards and Richardson are on the right track and in the face of a possible (if improbable) Party betrayal of the majority vote, the ONE AMERICA Party would rise from that worn out shell. The DP either rededicates itself (and is thereby Reborn) or it dies. That's what's at stake, here and now.

[dhinds]

Part B:

Why she continues:

The combination of all of the above generates enough Public Support to keep the Clinton Campaign alive. The Clinton's survived Whitewater, Bill's Extramartial Affairs and even, his Lying under Oath. So far, they've survived everything thrown at them and are having a hard time accepting the rapidly approaching end to the charmed life they've led to date. This confidence borders on obsession and demonstrates a Starlet Complex, a sense of entitlement that's been evident from the start (and to many, this is hardly a virtue). Apparently, having been the First Lady and being a Senator from New York aren't enough for her.

Her highly paid staff will continue to support her as long as the money holds out. But for the first time in American Political History, campaign funding reflects the depth of a candidate's understanding and message, the organizational and technological skill of the campaign's staff and most importantly, the strength of that candidate's Popular Support.
(As an aside: Would Barack Obama be here if Tim Berners-Lee hadn't donated -and maintained- www protocols in the public domain)?

What's unknown is the depth of the Clinton's obsession and the integrity of the DNC Rules Committee's decision making process. Without reformulating the rules for FL and MI, there's insufficient justification for pressuring Super-delegates to recognize and support her supposed superior electability.

(Please See Part C)

[dhinds]

Part A:

Hillary's successes have been the result of:

I).- Name Recognition;
Including the unquestioned authority granted her by her more poorly informed supporters;

II).- Party Loyalty;
As above, the Clintons are well known Democratic Party stalwarts, with extensive contacts;

III).- Nostalgia;
Thanks to Dubya, life was better during the Clinton years and as Nader predicted, Dubya's abuses have united Democrats against him and his policies, although only partly around Hillary;

IV).- Casting Doubt on her Competitor(s) Character, Behavior, Judgement and Experience, as well as those that criticize (or fail to support) her;
However, this tactic has alienated those who recognize it for what it's worth (including former members of the Clinton Administration), and Obama's proven himself adept at addressing the doubts of all but the most intractable cases of ignorance and incorrigible intellectual dishonesty.

V).- Feminist Issues;
Women have in fact been discriminated against and deserve a shot at the White House;

VI).- Race
Racism & Ethnocentrism are not yet dead in America.

(Please See Part B)

[triplbee]

This drawn out primary battle is hurting Obama's chances at winning the White House. Clinton has stirred up enough race hatred in Appalachia that states like PA, OH and WV, which should be going for Dems this year, may go to McCain. She is also stirring up a hornets nest in MI and FL and putting those states in play for the GOP. She is an absolute nightmare and should be campaigning McCain to join his ticket.

[hinnis]

I sincerely hope you're correct about hurting Obama's chances at winning the White House.

[idest]

I think you made a wrong turn at RedState. Just turn around, and when you see National Review, turn right. Go about 5 more miles, and you're there. Quite the mixup!

[bgregs]

That's actually not why this is hurting Obama. This is hurting the WHOLE of the democratic party, by dragging it closer to the convention. Every day that Obama is having to fight Clinton is a day that McCain doesn't have to answer for ANY screwups!!!!

[hinnis]

I am dead set against Hillary as VP. According to recent polls, millions of her supporters will be voting for McCain rather than Obama, and if she is on the ballot, some may vote for the ticket, which may result in an Obama presidency. That would be disastrous for this country.

[spanishmoney]

hillary is dead set against hillary as vp......why tie your coattail to a looooser. she would wipe him out if she formed her own political party and ran on a ticket with al gore

[idest]

Why is Bill practically BEGGING the Obama camp to name Hillary the VP?

[mjc]

Absolutely, hinnis. Don't think there are many of us who are going to even think about supporting Obama, should he get the nomination. But events may change the Convention's mind about who should be the nominee IF the investigation of Obama's role in the Rezko scandal comes to life.

[idest]

"Don't think there are many of us..."

If by us you mean self-deluded, possibly racist, hard-core Clinton (AND NO ONE ELSE!!!) supporters, then yeah, you're probably right. But you're such a small chunk of the electorate, all those new voters that Obama brings out will more than offset your treachery.

Thankfully, most Clinton supporters aren't so dim.

[marymansour]

You have made a good point. As an Obama advocate, thanks for the take.

[kusalarhetoric]

The convention is the convention, after all, not a bad place to decide! The push to have things resolved before then seems orchestrated. Granted, both factions should have a clear view toward reconciliation in the weeks leading up to the convention.

[exmun]

Historically, the presumptive nominee (and his/her ‘people’) is involved with the DNC in planning the convention, its agenda, keynote speakers, decorations, snacks in the green room, and even such mundane issues like what kind of confetti they will have and when it will fall down. The presumptive nominee is regarded as the de facto head of the Democratic party and its fall agenda. You’re observation is correct that it is orchestrated. But that’s politics.

I find it ironic that of all things, the fight for the nomination comes down to decorating.  And we all know Hillary Clinton’s stand on homemaking … “You know, I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was fulfill my profession, which I entered before my husband was in public life.”

[bgregs]

And do you REALLY think that it's a good idea to give McCain THREE MORE MONTHS to run unopposed? Especially since the nominee won't get ANYTHING out there until after the REPUBLICAN convention, which is shortly after the democratic convention??????

[mredder4]

Crowd of 80,000? Yesterday it was just under 75,000 (and with no mention of the free rock concert that took place before Obama even took the stage), and today's it's 80,000. Will we be moving to inflate these numbers up to 100,000 because it makes a better sound bite?

[PhDiva]

Who cares if it was just 50,000. That is an extraordinary turnout. Are you going to try to pretend that the only people who showed up were his wife and his grandma?

[fanchon1288]

Hillary was boarding a plane and waving to hundreds of her supporters. Not, the people she was waving to was the press and they couldn't even see her boarding the plane. And even if a rock band played first the people had a choice to leave. And most important,
Victory.

[carlgt1]

What does it matter, 75K is 74K more than Hillary can drum up without bribes. And if you think a concert by "The Decembrists", which wasn't even billed as them, is somehow a "free arena rock concert", you're delusional.

[strifeknot]

Give it up. The band that performed was a tiny one that 99% of the attendees had never heard of. They were there for Obama. Why did the crowd not disperse after the music was over? Why did they wait for 45 minutes in 90 degree heat to hear Obama? Why did the crowd actually continue to increase after the band was through?

I realize you Clintonites need your comforting, hateful little fantasies to help get you through the day, but your candidate has lost and it's time to come back to earth.

[Mdazes]

I saw the so call band on tv, believe me no one was there to see them. Infact I was surprise by the entertainment they selected. You would think if he was trying to connect with people he would know what type of music they like.

[Relax08]

I sense a hint of real panic in your voice mredder4. McBush couldn't get 5000 people to an event if the Rolling Stones were coming.

[realpolitic]

I agree. I think the long campaign has helped Obama become a better candidate and will help Democrats win bigger majorities in the House and Senate. The partial rejection of Obama in Appalachia was unique to that region. The Rev. Wright issue is behind Obama for most voters, although conservatives will fan the flames of divisiveness with it. Obama has become tougher and was always very deft on his feet when arguing issues. Go Obama!

[Stadiumite]

I've got one more reason. Democrats are successful when the focus is on the issues. Kerry was ahead when that was the case. But in a long campaign, voters and the media get tired of talking about the same issues over and over again. So the discussion turns to personal trivia about the candidates. For whatever reason, the Republicans are better at trashing the image of their opponent.

A long primary campaign means a delay in the general election campaign. That shortens it, and allows less time for the "issue fatigue" that drags down the campaign. The Democrats should delay the convention until October.

[NJLawyer]

"The long Democratic primary season has engaged millions of new voters."

Many of whom could be lost unless Hillary is the VP.

[realpolitic]

I do not think so. Many see Obama as someone who looks ahead and represents a new kind of politics. Hillary is more of the same. Even her Senate voting record indicates she made her vote on Iraq out of political calculations for a presidential run. I think Obama should choose someone fresher who can bolster his self-defense credentials.

[carlgt1]

I wonder if millions would go to a Hillary-free ticket; and offset those who would want Hillary anyway? Hillary seems to have too much bad "baggage" to be worth the trouble.

[knerd]

Lord, I hope you're right.

[caral]

I agree that having this long primary season continue helps the Democratic party to win in the fall. Both candidates have brought excitement and new voters, who will, IMO, support the eventual candidate. But I disagree about the inevitability of everything falling into place, just because Obama leads in delegates. There is no DNC rule - except for some state ones - that says that even pledged delegates can't change their votes at the convention, if circumstances warrant it. This is what Clinton is looking for and will stay in the race until the convention, in order to make her case for the delegates to switch to her. Personally I'll be curious and fascinated to see just how she plans to do this. But I don't for one moment think that she'll give up her quest without a fight, if she thinks she has any chance of winning. This nomination is worth fighting for and I admire her stamina and determination.

[LongTom]

What you admire is Hillary's prodigious ability at self-delusion. The pledged delegates are utterly committed loyalists hand-picked and vetted by the campaign that sends them to the convention. The probability of any of them switching to Hillary from Obama is zero. As for the superdelegates, after they've made Obama the nominee on June 4, and he has been campaigning for nearly three months as the presumptive nominee, what conceivable argument will cause them to destroy the party by switching back to Hillary in August? unless Obama has been visiting prostitutes, a la Spitzer, this race is over. If Hillary keeps sniping at him past June, she's just making herslf into a bigger and bigger asshole.

You're right that the nomination is worth fighting for. Hillary fought badly and lost. Too bad for her she didn't pay close enough attention when planning her campaign. She thought she would get it without a fight, and like so many other times in her career, was wrong.

[mjc]

Absolutely, caral. LongTom and others here think all a convention is for is to crown the winner based on numbers of delegates. If that were the case, no need of a convention; just add up the totals and let her rip. Many delegates have changed their minds, as something or someone else has convinced them to do so. Obama delegates are just as prone to that as any others. It isn't illegal nor unethical.

[KarateKid]

i have to agree with the points made in this article. What he didn't say was that there is an ongoing voter registration drive nationwide, particularly in the South, and at least a million more Obama supporters will be on tap for the fall.

His fundraising will continue, and unlike Hillary, he doesn't have to beg for donations at all of her speeches. She is over $20 million in debt. Wanna know why she may take it to Denver? Read this:

"In the case of the Democratic primary, the election will end when a nominee is selected in Denver. So unless Clinton is able to raise enough money to pay herself back by then, she'll have to write off millions of dollars she lent to her campaign."

[KarateKid]

To continue this, he can keep making speeches all over the country. His campaign is flush with cash, with a deep well yet to tap as most of his donors have not come close to maxing out. If Hillary chooses to take it to Denver, she will have to keep up with Obama in campaigning, which will cost more money and require a massive donation to keep her from having to loan her campaign even more money.

Her stubbornness may cost her tens of millions, which she may have to write off. And, if you are a Clinton donor, are you going to keep contributing knowing Obama has the delegate count and her only hope is a floor fight in Denver? She's caught between a rock and a hard spot and knows it. Her tough talk about continuing rings hollow.

McCain is under the same handicap. He can't hope to raise money anywhere close to Obama. So, Obama supporters, don't worry, the other two know what they're up against.