Why the Long Primary Battle with Clinton Will Actually Help Obama Win in November

Listen to the talking heads drone endlessly about Obama's drubbing in Kentucky and Clinton's superior appeal among working class whites in Appalachia, and it is hard not to believe that the continuing primary battle won't hurt Obama in the fall. In fact, just the opposite is true. Here's why:

It will all be over soon enough. Notwithstanding his loss in Kentucky, his big win in Oregon put Obama at 1,957 delegates, according to RealClearPolitics.com. That is only 69 delegates from the magic number of 2,026 set by Democratic Party rules to clinch the nomination. There are only 301 delegates left to allocate, of which 215 are superdelegates. Obama just needs 23% of those remaining delegates.

Now that Obama has accumulated an absolute majority of the elected, pledged delegates, the already steady movement of superdelegates to his column will increase. It is likely he will pick up at least 36 delegates in the remaining three primaries. That would leave him needing only 33 more superdelegates, which he would pick up in a couple of days.

Even if the Rules Committee of the DNC seats all of the delegates from Michigan and Florida, the math doesn't materially change. Let's say the Committee allocated 10% more of the Michigan and Florida delegates to Clinton than Obama. Between them, Michigan and Florida would have had 366 delegates -- so that would only net Clinton 37 delegates. Even that would leave Obama needing only one in three of the superdelegates remaining today after the last primary -- and remember that since Super Tuesday he has far outstripped Clinton in the proportion of superdelegates he has accumulated.

The long Democratic primary season has engaged millions of new voters. Every night in most big cities the sportscast reports the hockey scores. For the many people who don't follow hockey, those scores go in one ear and out the other. They don't stick. The same is true for most normal people when it comes to politics, at least until this spring.

Now millions of formerly non-political Americans have started following politics. The primaries have become the most engaging reality TV show around. They've become a sporting event, a drama. My formerly non-political life insurance agent came to see me last week. She's never done anything political in her life. Now she's hooked. She wants to volunteer for Obama.

This new engagement in the Democratic contest is a bonanza for our prospects this fall. In Indiana, the combined Democratic primary turnout was 129% of the total voter that John Kerry got in the general election in 2004. That is unheard of.

History shows that once people vote in Democratic primaries they are much more likely to vote Democratic in general elections.

In general, people are more likely to "act themselves" into a belief or commitment than to be convinced by argument. The 80,000 people who attended the Portland rally for Obama would never have gone had there not been a long primary to necessitate it. The act of attending that rally will do more than dozens of commercials will do to guarantee their commitment and their passion for the Democratic candidate this fall.

The same is true for the tens of thousands who banged on doors or picked up the phone - or argued with a neighbor about the campaign.

The long primary has forced the Obama campaign to develop organizations in all 50 states. Generally, presidential campaigns develop organizations in a few primary states and then go on to develop organizations in the few "in-play" general election states. By forcing Obama to create organizations in every state, the long primary season has helped enormously to broaden the general election playing field. This year, there will be strong, experienced Obama organizations in every state in America.

The battle has hugely increased Democratic registration. In-play states like Nevada that started the year with a majority of Republican registrants, now have a majority of Democrats. The New York Times reports that well over half of new registrants in Oregon were 30 or younger, and that of the 83,000 voters who changed parties this year, a large majority switched to Democratic.

The long primary fight has battle-hardened the Obama organization. Most of Obama's top field people have now been through four or five tough primary contests. That experience has taught even the greenest organizer to "think like a political organizer." It has taught thousands of organizers and volunteers the nuances of political organizing that are only learned through practice.

Great organizations are more than the sum of their parts. They develop distinct values and procedures that combine to form strong organizational cultures. The problem with political organizations is that they are "thrown together." Strong cultures need time to develop. The long primary season has provided that time and practice. It will massively strengthen our ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of volunteers and millions of voters in the fall.

The continuing primary drama has swelled the number of individual Obama donors. Obama received contributions from 200,000 new donors last month alone. The huge Internet fund raising base will provide a massive political advantage over McCain this fall. It would never have grown so large had the primary battle not continued.

The long primary campaign has battle hardened the candidate. Great long distance runners train for the Olympics by running in the mountains where the oxygen is thin. The tough contest has sharpened Obama's already formidable skills and those of his top advisers as well.

The most difficult issues have already been vetted. The tough primary forced the Reverend Wright controversy -- and the issue of race in general -- to be fully examined by the media and public. The same goes for other standard Republican attacks. Much better that these issues be raised in March than in October. Much better that the voters see Obama win primaries -- and win the nomination -- after dealing with these issues. And of course, it has given Americans the chance to get used to the idea of an African American president.

For many Americans that has happened. While Obama might have less appeal than Clinton among working class white Appalachians, he won 57% of the white vote in mostly-white Oregon -- including 53% of those earning under $50,000 per year.

Obama's big trump card in the fall election is his ability to change the electorate - to register and mobilize millions of voters who have not voted before. The long primary season has set the stage for a fall campaign that does just that. It will place dozens of new states into play. It will change the formula for winning traditional swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

In the end, the long primary season has set the stage for what could be a transformational election that sweeps Obama into the presidency, and substantially bolsters Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.

Comments

[KarenKaren]

Hillary's college thesis on two approaches to community organizing are revealing. One way is to create conflict by rubbing raw the resentments of the people of the community; to fan latent hostilities of many of the people to the point of overt expressions. The other method "involves the hard work of recognizing interests, seeking out indigenous leaders, and building an organization whose power is viewed as legitimate by the larger community. " The former is like Clinton, and the latter is like Obama. Here's the link to her thesis:

http://www.gopublius.com/HCT/HillaryClintonThesis.pdf

[hinnis]

Wow, what a far cry from Michelle Obama's 1985 Princeton University senior sociology thesis, "Princeton-Educated Blacks and the Black Community," in which she wrote that her college experience "made me far more aware of my 'Blackness' " and that "I will always be Black first and a student second."

[Amminadab]

It also said that she would always use whatever resources she had to aid the Black community first and foremost.

[foreffectivegovernment]

Karen, thanks for the information. I already knew that Obama had stolen most of Hillary's major donors, many advisors from Bill's administration, and her policies to post on his webpage but I didn't know he stole her campaigning methods too. What with buying more superdelegates than she did, this race should have been over a long time ago. How do you explain why it is not. Could it be because, even with all the above edge on Hillary Clinton, he can't "close the deal"?

By the way, if Harvard hadn't taken it off their website, you could look up Michelle's thesis also. You can bet the Republicans have a copy and that could be bad.

[hinnis]

OBAMA BUYING THE DELEGATES:
These are the latest figures from an article in the Seattle Times:
Since 2005, Obama's PAC has donated $710,900 to super delegates, more than three times as much as Clinton's PAC. Her PAC distributed $236,100 to super delegates during the same time.
The study found that the presidential candidate who gave more money to the super delegates received their endorsements 82 percent of the time. That's based on a review of elected officials who are serving as super delegates and who had endorsed a candidate as of Feb. 25.

This article is from February. I imagine he has purchased, I mean donated to, many more delegates since then.

[technopolitical]

Thanks. To quote from her thesis:

"Some organizational situations need the polarizing
effect of 'rubbing raw the sores of discontent' while others
with well-defined resentments need leaders."

In other words, the key to organizing people is to exploit polarization and resentment, creating it as needed for the purpose at hand. Interesting.

[DietrichMoody]

If you're poor and white, you're out of sight - Jim Webb

The above quote was Senator Webb, explaining Appalachians, mainly Scotch-Irish with a deep rooted cultural history in these area. Same with Accadians in Louisiana and Canada. I think Hillary winning the Appalachian areas had more to do with familiarity, they knew Bill Clinton, President, not because she was a white woman. But never found Democrats in line with their cultural or social values. Won't probably vote for a White woman, emphasis on the "Woman", for President. While Democrats were promoting Civil Rights, etc. many of these poor white people were left out. Same in Kentucky, some very depressed areas there, that don't vote and Hillary didn't spend time campaigning there. But they don't have resentment. They live their lives and are more open. Some not.

Whereas, you migh see resentful racism, in Rhode Island or say Long Island, NY or some towns in Ohio, among the Ethnic Whites. Areas where Alec Baldwin say, oh my god there is Racism is small towns. Well..yes and no, Alec Baldwin


Obama is very approachable: Kansas, Wyoming, Minnesota, Oregon, Virginia enforces this.


I agree with you, Hillary may have done Obama a great service. I am sure there is a Art in War, that you send people out to check on your battlefront weaknesses. And Hillary, exposed Obama's strengths and weaknesses. So I do agree with this post.

[XCITIZEN]

Nicely put!

[foreverdemocrat]

Very nicely put - Obama will be SOLID in the months ahead. God bless him.

OBAMA '08

[AdamND]

The problem is that she will never leave..ever. She will continue to polarize women and the blue collars then she will take this to the convention.

During this whole time to the convention she will continue to hold her polarized base then she will ofically loose at the convention but after that her base will be tired and will fall apart making it too hard for Obama to try to get them back within 3 months and to attack John McSame.

John McSame will take this time to hammer Obama with out the media or much push back because the MSM will be so focused on why HIllay is still in the game and totally ignore how old and out of touch McSame is.

When she looses at the convention she will Pull a ted Kennedy and not shake Obamas hand and cost him the election.

[23000Days]

Obama's on to that already, he's started the general election campaign and is saying nothing about Hillary other that that she's a fine lady and a great campaigner. By august he will be accepted world-wide as the Dem candidate. What happens at the convention will be mere formality.

[realtalk]

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES NEED TO BE TALKING ABOUT THE ISSUES, IF THEY DO THAT, AND ARE ABLE TO GET THEIR MESSAGE OUT ABOUT THEIR POLICIES, TO AS MANY VOTERS AS POSSIBLE, THEN THIS IS THE ONLY WAY THAT THIS COULD BE A GOOD THING.
IF THE CANDIDATES ARE ABLE TO CONTRAST THEIR PLATFORMS AGAINST McCAIN EFFECTIVELY, AND CLEARLY SHOW THE VOTERS THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE POLICIES OF THE DEMOCRATS, AND THE REPUBLICANS, ONLY THEN WILL THIS DRAGGED OUT PRIMARY NOT TURN OUT TO BE A DISASTER.
BECAUSE IN THE END IF THE DEMOCRATS LOSE IT WILL BE THE VOTERS WHO WILL SUFFER BECAUSE THERE WILL BE: NO END TO THE WAR (and more of our soldiers dying in IRAQ), NO TAX BREAK FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS , NO HEALTH COVERAGE, NO FINANCIAL HELP FOR COLLEGE STUDENT, NO NEW JOB CREATIONS, A CONTINUATION OF UNFAIR TRADE DEALS WITH MEXICO, CANADA, AND CHINA WHICH DO NOT BENEFIT THE USA), THERE WILL BE NO CLEAN ENERGY PROJECTS, OR CLEAN ENERGY JOBS, THERE WILL BE NO IMPROVEMENT TO OUR ELEMENTARY, AND HIGH SCHOOLS, AND NO TAX BREAKS FOR OUR SENIORS SO THEY CAN AFFORD THEIR RENT, AND THEIR MEDICATIONS.....

WE NEED A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHIT HOUSE, BECAUSE JOHN McCAIN IS NOT OFFERING ANY OF THESE THINGS, AND THIS COUNTRY JUST CANNOT AFFORD TO HAVE 4 YEARS OF GEORGE BUSH, WHICH IS EXCATLY WHAT WE ARE GUARNTEED TO GET IF JOHN McCAIN S ELECTED.

[DIdaho]

You really have to wonder at the tenor of these posts. I'm not sexist, I'm not racist, my horses in this race were Biden and Richardson. Real experience. I was changed. Changed, because one candidate in this race wanted to speak to the best of us and trust we would respond.

That candidate is Obama. I was open to Hillary. I figured there were two good candidates, I could live with either one. To paraphrase Reagan, "I did not leave her. She left me." Starting with the incredibly hypocritical and inaccurate pit-bull attacks over NAFTA and health care, and following through to her bald-face lies about the popular vote and flip-flop over Florida and Michigan, it only reinforces the sniper fire story. She is constitutionally incapable of telling the truth if a lie would serve her better. I can in no way trust her as my representative.

[zbearlady]

PART 2:

In addition: By insisting on staying in the race when there's no possible math metric that even Hillary can fabricate or rationalize, and even when pressured (by superdelegates, etc) not to smear Obama with any further lies and/or dirty tactics, she's still doing damage everytime she drums into the minds of her supporters the myth that she's the better candidate to win against the Republicans in November.

While Obama proves again & again that he has gathered great enthusiasm & support among the middle-class 'white' vote, how many times has Hillary hypnotically repeated the thoroughly unsubstantiated statement that she's the only one capable of winning those 'hard-working-white-American votes against McCain -even though the popular vote, the pledged delegates, the swarm of superdelegates & even the polls completely defy the reasoning of that argument?

Hillary, whatever your personal, ego-motivated, self-serving agenda may be -to drag this race out 'into oblivion'...don't you have the integrity...or even a shred of moral decency left to see that you are now in a position where you are actually doing far more damage than good? If you truly do care about the good of the people -as well as the Democratic party- then surely you can see that continuing this race will only create more divisiveness & unwarranted prejudice against Barack Obama -in turn, giving McCain more momentum in November.

If there is any sincerity regarding your true support of the Democratic party, then please bow out gracefully -now!

[zbearlady]

PART 1:

Hillary says that by staying in the race, she is not dividing the Democratic party, nor diverting votes to McCain? She also adamantly states she'll campaign & fight hard for the Democratic nominee, so as to assure a victory over the Republicans in the fall?

Yet, everytime she gives voice to allowing the Michigan & Florida votes, she not-so-subtly implies that Obama is the one standing in the way of these voter's rights. While playing into the paranoia of 'unfairness' & 'undemocratic vote-counting', she's creating division & outrage in their minds -implying that she's the only one championing for them -not Obama- chipping away & souring their opinions about his character & integrity. Subsequently, come the general election -when she is long gone- the fall-out from such underhanded insinuations may well result in Obama being seen as the man who supposedly stood in the way of these voter's rights to be heard.

As most of us already know, this mess was not Obama's doing. Those states broke the primary rules, the voters knew their votes wouldn't be counted, the candidates ceased their campaigning (Obama wasn't even on Mich. ballot) & Hillary agreed to it all! Yet now that she has all but lost the race & is desperate to 'steal' votes wherever she can, she's conveniently spinning it all as if this whole mess is somehow Obama's fault?

So, how is that not being divisive? And how does that not have a long-term negative impact on the Democratic

[siri2k]

Yours is the BEST most common sense response to the whole ridiculous argument that this in party fight is GOOD FOR DEMS! that I have seen presented ANYWHERE on the intratooobz!

This should get NATIONAL attention, this point made herein. It's accurate and really, nothing short of brilliant!

GOOD JOB! zbear!

you make me proud to be another lady!

[THEhillbilly]

Before election day, millions of people who have been suffering from transient Obama thralldom will have seen what's obvious: Your "rock star" is all "air guitar." The Commander in Chief job is way too big for a guy who has accomplished less than the average senator (i.e., nothing) and who willingly listened to nearly two decades of hate-fueled anti-America raving from his "spiritual guide," lifting neither finger nor tongue in defense of his country.

It's three A.M....the phone rings...Michelle says, "Oh, just go back to sleep, Barry. This is a mean country."

[23000Days]

Here is Obama's senate history:

During the first (8) eight months of his elected service he sponsored over 820 bills including:
233 regarding healthcare reform,
125 on poverty and public assistance,
112 crime fighting bills,
97 economic bills,
60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills,
21 ethics reform bills,
15 gun control,
6 veterans affairs and many others.
His first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included the following:
**the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law),
**The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, (became law),
**The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, passed the Senate,
**The 2007 Government Ethics Bill, (became law),
**The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, (In committee), and many more.
In all since he entered the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096.

[Amminadab]

On the surface, your claims don't seem plausible. Please cite your source.

He sponsored 820 bills in his first 8 months?

Over 4 a day, including Sundays and holidays?

I doubt it is even plausible that he could read 4 bills a day.

And is it really true that in less than a single term in the U.S. Senate he has actually written 890 bills? While simultaneously running for president?

How is this remotely possible?

I guess I don't believe your claim. Please cite your source.

[carlgt1]

Obama has more experience (at this point in his career) than Abraham Lincoln did when he was elected president.

[metogamekun]

The last five months have seemed like a lifetime. Will the five months before the general fly by?

There's time to unify, folks. There's time to make history.

[foolchild0]

As someone who was unsure about Obama at the beginning of this process, seeing his response to Clinton has made me grow to respect him. I thought he was a pretty-talking stuffed shirt at first, but now I've seen that he's a pretty gritty fighter and most importantly that he fights with honor, so I'll consider voting for him in the general.

[notthistime]

Thank you Foolchildo for at least taking a second look. I hope you have the opportunity to review his stance on the issues as well. There are only slight differences with Senator Clinton. The most prominent is Healtcare (hers madate for all/his mandate kids and lower costs for everyone else so they can afford to pay) and foreign policy (his diplomacy first, use all tools available to the presidency and war last option).

[foolchild0]

let me clarify: never, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, would i have voted for Clinton. she is not only a bad choice for president, but she is the embodiment of everything that is wrong with Beltway politics. i've come to obama as an independent, but he's still got to win me over. i don't want to sound petty, but clinton is just plain and simple bad news for this country. both candidates health care plans are severely lacking in my opinion, b/c all they do is empower the insurance companies, but obama's foreign policy approach is right and clinton's is just plain dead WRONG on all counts.

[MrUniteUs]

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, in honor and in accordance with DNC rules, pledge to actively campaign in the pre-approved early states Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. I pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any election contest occurring in any state not already authorized by the DNC to take place in the DNC approved pre-window (any date prior to February 5, 2008). Campaigning shall include but is not limited to purchasing media or campaign advocacy of any kind, attending or hosting events of more than 200 people to promote one’s candidacy for a preference primary and employing staff in the state in question. It does not include activities specifically related to raising campaign resources such as fundraising events or the hiring of fundraising staff."

Did you see the section that says:
"WHEREAS, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will strip states of 100% of their delegates and super delegates to the DNC National Convention if they violate the nomination calendar."

Why didn't Hillary complain about "count every vote" then and how could she sign it in good conscience when she feels so strongly now?

Wait - was she ahead at the time? lol

Pass this pledge she signed around - she signed the pledge.

[Amminadab]

Please show me her signature on the pledge you claim she signed.

[23000Days]

All the democratic candidates signed it!!! That's been common knowledge since August of '07.

[maidenofdforest]

Please contact the DNC headquarters.....ordinary voters not superdelagates of the party do not have this contract. Thern you will know Hillary signed it.

I challenge you now...!

[WFV]

She doesn't care if she signed it or not. Everything is negotiable, right?

I can say with all honesty I will never cast a vote for Hillary Clinton.

[hinnis]

You are either innocently incorrect or purposefully lying. Here is the exact statement which Clinton and Obama signed, from the DNC website:

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar. THEREFORE, I _____, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.

AS YOU CAN SEE, this agreement only said they would not "campaign or participate" in the primaries -- nothing more. Nice try, though.

[mln7905]

Mere words don't express it, but I HOPE YOU'RE RIGHT.

[shinybear]

I look so forward to reading more pieces like this claiming that the endless extended primary is somehow good for us in the weeks and MONTHS to come!

The fact that we aren't paying attention to what's going on with Karl Rove, the investigation into gas price gauging, John McCain's lobbyist problems and his refusal to support the new G.I. Bill is meaningless.

We have more important things to do like writing self-righteous diatribes about the word "sweetie"!

[WaspMan]

Plus I seem to remember coverage of military action in Iraq, Afghanistan and perhaps Iran coming on? And perhaps some discussion regarding the legality of the actions of the Bush regime? Oh yeah, drag it out.

No harm done, Hill.

[TheQuis]

Great post:

You know reading the commentary on this Blog is quite enlightening. Democrats, beware the wolves in sheep's clothing. There are plenty of Republican commentors who are trying to incite devision among us by beating the "Obama's Unelectable" Drum. Read some of their other comments on other blogs like ATTUCKS who defends McCain and his Anti Catholic Anti Jew Pastoral Endorser. These people are playing on our fears and our egos and we must ignore them.

Remember we are here to voice our opinions and respect the opinion of others through a dialog. Remember come November when we're alone in the booth and there is no Huffington Post Commentors or Fox News Pundits to bother you. Vote your priorities, not your emotions.

Make a decision based (whether it's Clinton, McCain, or Obama) based on:
ECONOMY
THE WAR
ABORTION RIGHTS
IMMIGRATION
DIPLOMACY
LEADERSHIP
ORGANIZATION
VISION
INSPIRATION
SUPREME COURT JUSTICE SELECTION
CIVIL RIGHTS & CIVIL LIBERTIES
GUN RIGHTS
TAXATION
CRISIS MANAGEMENT

[MrUniteUs]

Here's the pledge that all the Democratic Party candidates signed at the start of the primary:

"PLEDGE 1: (received by Florida Democratic Party from a presidential campaign)
Four State Pledge Letter 2008
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
August 28, 2007

WHEREAS, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, along with approval from the full body of the DNC, established the 2008 Presidential nominating calendar in 2005.

WHEREAS, the nominating calendar increases diversity with the early participation of African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, Native Americans and labor members.

WHEREAS, the nominating calendar honors the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process.

WHEREAS, the nominating calendar provides geographical balance with contests in the Heartland, East, South and West.

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

WHEREAS, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will strip states of 100% of their delegates and super delegates to the DNC National Convention if they violate the nomination calendar.

[gkam]

Just tell them, "Don't forget to gas up on your way to vote!"

[chappelforpres]

Maybe so. I admire Obama. He's got a modest swagger, moves like a cat and knows how to slip the ropes. Hands down, he's won the decision (despite a $1M bribe attempt). But the eye cut he's nursing, thanks to Hillary's relentless cheap-shots, might just cost him the title.

[ikkytito]

What eye cut? She barely hit him. He moves like a butterfly an stings like a bee.