Why the Long Primary Battle with Clinton Will Actually Help Obama Win in November

Listen to the talking heads drone endlessly about Obama's drubbing in Kentucky and Clinton's superior appeal among working class whites in Appalachia, and it is hard not to believe that the continuing primary battle won't hurt Obama in the fall. In fact, just the opposite is true. Here's why:

It will all be over soon enough. Notwithstanding his loss in Kentucky, his big win in Oregon put Obama at 1,957 delegates, according to RealClearPolitics.com. That is only 69 delegates from the magic number of 2,026 set by Democratic Party rules to clinch the nomination. There are only 301 delegates left to allocate, of which 215 are superdelegates. Obama just needs 23% of those remaining delegates.

Now that Obama has accumulated an absolute majority of the elected, pledged delegates, the already steady movement of superdelegates to his column will increase. It is likely he will pick up at least 36 delegates in the remaining three primaries. That would leave him needing only 33 more superdelegates, which he would pick up in a couple of days.

Even if the Rules Committee of the DNC seats all of the delegates from Michigan and Florida, the math doesn't materially change. Let's say the Committee allocated 10% more of the Michigan and Florida delegates to Clinton than Obama. Between them, Michigan and Florida would have had 366 delegates -- so that would only net Clinton 37 delegates. Even that would leave Obama needing only one in three of the superdelegates remaining today after the last primary -- and remember that since Super Tuesday he has far outstripped Clinton in the proportion of superdelegates he has accumulated.

The long Democratic primary season has engaged millions of new voters. Every night in most big cities the sportscast reports the hockey scores. For the many people who don't follow hockey, those scores go in one ear and out the other. They don't stick. The same is true for most normal people when it comes to politics, at least until this spring.

Now millions of formerly non-political Americans have started following politics. The primaries have become the most engaging reality TV show around. They've become a sporting event, a drama. My formerly non-political life insurance agent came to see me last week. She's never done anything political in her life. Now she's hooked. She wants to volunteer for Obama.

This new engagement in the Democratic contest is a bonanza for our prospects this fall. In Indiana, the combined Democratic primary turnout was 129% of the total voter that John Kerry got in the general election in 2004. That is unheard of.

History shows that once people vote in Democratic primaries they are much more likely to vote Democratic in general elections.

In general, people are more likely to "act themselves" into a belief or commitment than to be convinced by argument. The 80,000 people who attended the Portland rally for Obama would never have gone had there not been a long primary to necessitate it. The act of attending that rally will do more than dozens of commercials will do to guarantee their commitment and their passion for the Democratic candidate this fall.

The same is true for the tens of thousands who banged on doors or picked up the phone - or argued with a neighbor about the campaign.

The long primary has forced the Obama campaign to develop organizations in all 50 states. Generally, presidential campaigns develop organizations in a few primary states and then go on to develop organizations in the few "in-play" general election states. By forcing Obama to create organizations in every state, the long primary season has helped enormously to broaden the general election playing field. This year, there will be strong, experienced Obama organizations in every state in America.

The battle has hugely increased Democratic registration. In-play states like Nevada that started the year with a majority of Republican registrants, now have a majority of Democrats. The New York Times reports that well over half of new registrants in Oregon were 30 or younger, and that of the 83,000 voters who changed parties this year, a large majority switched to Democratic.

The long primary fight has battle-hardened the Obama organization. Most of Obama's top field people have now been through four or five tough primary contests. That experience has taught even the greenest organizer to "think like a political organizer." It has taught thousands of organizers and volunteers the nuances of political organizing that are only learned through practice.

Great organizations are more than the sum of their parts. They develop distinct values and procedures that combine to form strong organizational cultures. The problem with political organizations is that they are "thrown together." Strong cultures need time to develop. The long primary season has provided that time and practice. It will massively strengthen our ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of volunteers and millions of voters in the fall.

The continuing primary drama has swelled the number of individual Obama donors. Obama received contributions from 200,000 new donors last month alone. The huge Internet fund raising base will provide a massive political advantage over McCain this fall. It would never have grown so large had the primary battle not continued.

The long primary campaign has battle hardened the candidate. Great long distance runners train for the Olympics by running in the mountains where the oxygen is thin. The tough contest has sharpened Obama's already formidable skills and those of his top advisers as well.

The most difficult issues have already been vetted. The tough primary forced the Reverend Wright controversy -- and the issue of race in general -- to be fully examined by the media and public. The same goes for other standard Republican attacks. Much better that these issues be raised in March than in October. Much better that the voters see Obama win primaries -- and win the nomination -- after dealing with these issues. And of course, it has given Americans the chance to get used to the idea of an African American president.

For many Americans that has happened. While Obama might have less appeal than Clinton among working class white Appalachians, he won 57% of the white vote in mostly-white Oregon -- including 53% of those earning under $50,000 per year.

Obama's big trump card in the fall election is his ability to change the electorate - to register and mobilize millions of voters who have not voted before. The long primary season has set the stage for a fall campaign that does just that. It will place dozens of new states into play. It will change the formula for winning traditional swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

In the end, the long primary season has set the stage for what could be a transformational election that sweeps Obama into the presidency, and substantially bolsters Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.

Comments

[donballz]

I completely agree. I have always followed politics casually. Now I am obsessed. I now watch MSNBC instead of ESPN and listen to AirAmerica instead of Mike & Mike in the Morning. Living in IN, I can tell you that I've never seen anything like it at the polls. I think it puts long-time red states in play because we are energized so early

[tchristin]

I completely agree as long as Hillary Clinton does not split the party at the convention­... it's all good.

[Attucks]

As a Dem for over 50 years, I hope she takes it the convention. I hope she fights her ass off. I hope she knows that there are legions of us that will back her. However, if she backs off, a lot of us will indeed vote for the next best choice..Mc­Cain..

[MizLiz]

...and if McCain wins, and the country becomes even worse than it is now, I do hope you enjoy your situation. Spite will get you exactly nowhere.

[santamonica39]

lol.... i highly doubt you're a Dem for 50 years if you would vote for McCain and his fascist agenda for America. If so, then go for it. We don't want you.

[Chickiej1]

I have read hundreds of comment like this and I can only respond by saying the following:

Voting and Presidential elections are very serious matters. They are not an opportunity to exact your own personal ideology and/or exact revenge onto the rest of the nation. Elections are an opportunity to perform a civic responsibility and choose the person who is best suited to lead the nation among the AVAILABLE candidates.

I do not understand how a democrat could even consider voting for a republican like McCain simply becasue his or her candidate was not nominated. If Clinton is not on the ballot, that's becasue she didn't appeal to as wide a range of Americans as Obama. It's not a crime and no one has done anything wrong. It's just the reality.

If Clinton loses the nomination and tells her supporters (as she has already done) to not vote for McCain, are all fo you still going to vote for him simply becasue you didn't get what you wanted?

How can you justify that and still believe that you are a democrat?

[DIdaho]

It's simple. You're not a democrat. Too liberal? We're the liberal party, after all. Appeals to racism, to sexism, to fear, to fudging the numbers, to victimizat­ion... that's republican tactics. If your dedication is so shallow you'd prefer a 100 year war, more tax cuts so the rich can fail to invest in this country, shipping jobs overseas and a complete reversal not just of Roe v Wade but of the entire agenda of equal opportunity we've fought for for 44 years, go ahead. Good riddance.

[XME]

Enough with the threats already. It will only hurt Hillary's reputation and career for her supporters to opt to threaten to vote for the man whose ideals and politics are opposite those of Clinton's in an attempt to get their way. If you want to vote McCain, then do it. It's not Obama's fault that Hillary lost, and if you want revenge and to punish everyone that's your and Hillary Clinton's problem, but please spare the rest from your constant posts threatening to revolt if you can't have your way...it's not going to get you GET your way and it only makes her supporters look like they couldn't care less about what John McCain stands for (wars, reversing women's rights, bombing Iran, wrecking the economy), just revenge. Since most of those supporters are women, as a whole they just solidify believe that people have of "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned", and makes a complete joke out of women who expect to be treated equally by ACTING equal.

[Taxwizz]

This protracted battle between Hillary and Obama has created more media exposure that either one could ever have purchased. How many minutes of air time has Obama received in the last 3 months compared to McCain? Probably 100 times as much !!

Obama is now easily recognized and known, while McCain is still a "Who?"

Remember the saying "I don't care what they say about me, just as long as they spell my name right."?

[Taxwizz]

Monday night McCain was on the Daly show. Did anyone else notice the HUGE swelling on the left side of his cheek? What has he got growing there?

[DrT]

I suspect that he chews tobacco.
Gross.

[JackWOrf]

No, I didn't notice that. Maybe he had a toothache, or he was chawin tobaccky. Gee, I never noticed that McCain's cheek was swollen. You are REALLY observant. WOW!

[MizLiz]

When the doctors removed a cancerous patch from the left side of his face, they had to strip out all the lymph nodes. So that side gets swollen. Notice he always turns his head so you can't see it in photos.

[Taxwizz]

He tried to keep the left side of his face away from the camera, but often turned it. It looked like he had something the size of half of a baseball under his cheek.

Maybe the medical records of candidates should be public. information. If someone wants to run the country, the voters have a right to know their health and ability do remain in charge.

[rgblue]

I have the suspicion that McCain is nowhere near as healthy in mind or body as he's portrayed in public. Watch him closely. He can't even go down steps without really gripping that rail. I hope somehow the public will find out the real scoop before November.

[tmbetterman]

I have suspected for awhile that he is not well. I know he had a cancerous tumor removed from the left side of his face within the last couple of years. I am thinking a few things:
Stroke
Cancer
Alzheimer's
Remember he was tortured in Vietnam, I wonder, if now in his elder years he is suffering from something that happened to him there.
He also can not speak without a teleprompter, and sometimes has difficulities with that. Watch his hands as he speaks, it is painfully obvious his memory is shot, and he has rehearsed his speeches many times over, but still doesn't remember the message. You can see his eyes go from teleprompter to teleprompter, so he appears to be addressing every part of the audience.

[S1m0n]

He's got some Godawful botox OD facial paralysis going on, as well.

[provgrays]

All good reasons.

Comparitively few Hillary Democrats will vote for McCain in the general election because the country is so disgusted with how the War Criminal Party has done for the last seven plus years. Some angry voters make a brave noise about casting votes to spite the winning Democratic candidate, but when they are paying upwards of five or six dollars for a gallon of gas in the fall, you can bet that most will not vote for McSame.

[THEhillbilly]

"McSame"..­.(snicker) That childishness exemplifies one thing that magniloquent, done-nothing senator Obama yaps about: he brings out the youngsters. Very young, and especially the puerile.

By the way, whoever told you to parrot the idiotic "War Criminal Party" is laughing at you. Between guffaws, he's planning to remind you that the democrats are the only people in the known universe who have ever nuked anyone.

[cindyward]

Mr. Creamer, I don't think your comment about the 75K Portland turnout for Obama is true - people would have turned out in droves to see Obama even if the race were completely over. Anectotal proof: Over 50K people turned out to see Kerry in 2004 in Portland at a time when the race for the Democratic presidential nomination was long over, and Kerry didn't generate even a fraction of the excitement that Obama has.

IMHO the turnout for Obama would have been far higher than 75K if there had been any venue in Portland that could have supported that huge a crowd. I personally would have loved to see Obama speak in person, but I knew it would be a mob scene and I turn into a total mass of anxiety in a crowd that huge :-(

[Miamisecretagent]

I've been thinking this for weeks, and I'm glad to see a prominent blog with this viewpoint on Huffpo, after all the fuming by the so-called Obama supporters who thought it would be a good thing for their black "change" candidate to have the nomination handed to him, affirmative action style, by a white establishment candidate. At least, that's how the repubs could, with some credibiilty, have characterized any Obama nomination that came short of his actually having to run against and beat Hillary. The fact that this fight between two good and tough candidates has happened publicly and all over the map means everyone'll know that when Obama wins the nomination, he damn well deserves it. Even die-hard Hillary fans will respect that.

[provgrays]

Miamisecretagent,

Obama nearly has the 2026 delegates and that will clinch the nomination. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

[Attucks]

No, "Die-Hard" Hillary fans will not respect it. The reason being is that Hillary was handcuffed from the start. Regardless of what she said, it was always labeled as racist, sexist, hateful, evil,etc. It's a damn shame that she has had to walk on eggshells. Make no mistake, when the gloves come off, and they will, I think we will all regret that we threw Hillary under the bus. She has been fully vetted. There is still a great deal unknown about Obama, and he will not stand up to it, and that is a fact.

[tmbetterman]

"Walk on eggshells"??? What Primary have you been paying attention to?

[chlllfactor]

Good grief! Do you live on a parallel planet ? The handcuffs were on Senator Obama - unknown, no money, no real support base. Hillary had everthing including the Clinton political machine behind her. Are you so entrenched with having Hillary as president that you ignore everything she has thrown at Senator Obama and HE still came out on top? That she has done everything in her power to destroy the party and Senator Obama? Hillary has been championed as the fighter. The real fighter in this campaign has been Senator Obama - he has had the worst innuendos thrown at him and survived. "Unknown" in your mind is clouded by Hillary rhetoric.

[Tropiholic]

Poor Hilalry always the female victim, how tragic for her and her followers.

[syllepsis]

In my opinion, there is a real possibility that Hillary will launch a third-party, Joe Lieberman-like campaign in the fall, and will try to paint Obama as Ned Lamont.
She is more loyal to her ambitions than to the Democratic party, and senses an opportunity. And let's be honest- there is one.

[hinnis]

I wish you were correct about Hillary running as an Independent, but she is much too much the party loyalist to do that. The next best thing is for her supporters to do everything possible to aid in the defeat of Obama, whether it is by staying home in November, or voting for John McCain. Anyone but Obama.

[DrT]

Another troll. Is the McSame campaign paying you now?

[magnitude]

Do you people normally cut off your noses because you hate your faces?

How can you call yourself a democrat and get so infatuated with a candidate? If you cannot see that Obama's policies are not much different from Clinton's and way superior to MCSenile, you are even dumber than you guys act out half the time.

Hillary is a strong willed politician and I was hoping that one day she would to run for president when the repugs destroyed her heath care plan in the Clinton years. After having watched her negative and divisive tactics in this campaign i became so disgusted .

If Hillary were such a party loyalist she would not pursue her personal dreams at the cost of ripping the party up. She would take a step back, take the high road and apologize for her divisive tactics and do everything in her power to unite the party to fight MCSame. She would ask her supporters to rally behing Obama for the party's sake.

[Attucks]

Staying home is not an option. That won't help anyone. You suggesting McCain is really not too hard to take. He has the experience, he has shown that he's willing to reach across the aisle. Let's just hope that we wake up and make Hillary the choice.

[Attucks]

No, I don't think she will..BUT.­.I certainly would vote for her!! Her political views, and the plans she has for our country are exactly what I'm looking for. How could that hurt the Dem Party? It wouldn't matter if she was running as an Independent, she has a huge backing from us life-long Dem's, and we think she is the best choice..Th­e ONLY choice.

[tmbetterman]

You really need to drop the "us". Your comment is offensive to REAL Democrats

[DrT]

You must be kidding, Attucks (or you're a Repug troll). If Clinton were in the general election, you would hear the words "sniper fire" by McSame and the Fox talking heads every 15 minutes. She was caught in an unabashed lie! And Americans are sick of being lied to. I know I am.

[bigbenny]

Do you honestly think that Hillary can win as a third party candidate? Let's assume all her supporters vote for her, where in hell is she going to get the rest of the votes she'd need to win the presidency. Certainly not from Obama, they'll already be voting for him and the Rethugs will be voting for McSame. Now here's something to think about, McSame wins by default with only a little over a third of the vote.

Another thing is I don't believe Obama ever brought up race except when he had to defend himself over the Rev Wright crap. I also don't think he ever made gender a part of his campaign except to include women in the process.

GO BO 08

[shawnaNaustin]

Attucks, Hillary herself said not long ago that she thought this long, hard-fought primary would be good for the party and good for the country. You're not suggesting she meant that only if she were to win?

[Bluebloodsbastardson]

If she somehow steals the nomination at the convention she can have the working poor vote, the dyke vote, the gray panther vote and Bill and Chelsea's vote and take McMaim on.....rea­l Democrats will write in Obama on their ballots and leave the GOOPERCRAT party and start their own third party...ma­ybe name it the We The People party. Is Chuck Barris Hil's new strategist?

[S1m0n]

It's too late for Hillary to get on the ballot as an indie; unlike CT, the presidency has a sore-loser rule: the deadline to file as a independent is before the primaries wrap up.

It's there to prevent exactly the scenario you imagine.

[thismachinekillsfascists]

Take THAT Obamahaters!

[CraigMM]

Obama hasn't won anything yet, as he cannot get to 2024 on his own. The SD's will choose the nominee and they will follow the will of the people and that will be the winner of the popular vote - HRC! Let's all try to get HuffPo to deal with the truth right now and admit that the winner of the popular vote should be the nominee, right?

This will, with certainty, be Senator Clinton. Florida's votes will count and Obama will be given a majority of the "uncommitted" votes from MI and HRC will get her votes from MI. Then you add in the few thousand votes for Obama from Montana and South Dakota and the few humdred thousand votes that HRC will win in Puerto Rico and HRC will not only have the popular vote, she will have it by around 100,000 votes.

Popular vote = will of the people = Senator Clinton = Democratic win in November

[chlllfactor]

Apparently you do not read well or just plain do not look at the facts. Obama is the presumed Democratic nominee. Even with Mi and FL in the running. Hillary still cannot overtake Senator Obama. What about the math do you not understand? I am so tired of Hillary supporters at this point in time still fantasizing that she can win the nomination. Like it or not, the nomination process is over and it is time to unite the party.

[tmbetterman]

Someone really needs a reality check.

[CapitalistRebel]

The Super Delegates are going to give this to Hillary? Even when Obama has the majority of pledged delegates, in a contest where the winning metric is delegates? Keep dreaming..­. The longer she continues, the more foolish she looks.

[blackbirdpie]

Ehhem....S­orry Craig but your popular vote theory is a sham. The only measure by which HRC wins the popular vote is:

Counting MI & FL, whose primaries did not count: Hillary was quoted saying "they won't count" before she was behind in this election. Now she is the savior of counting all the votes. But wait, only if those votes went to her. Never mind the thousands of people who didn't vote simply because they knew their primary was invalid. Oh yeah, also never mind the thousands of voters who voted "other" that Hillary is not counting. So much for counting all the votes, huh!

Excluding all caucus states from her popular vote count: If Hillary wants all the votes to count, why the hell is she discounting them.

Hillary's "popular vote count" is one big joke.

[bdl0715]

Craig, that is a good dream you are having, but it's time to wake up now......

[duze]

Hillary Clinton is splitting the party. This pandering the GOP is allowing her to get away with is
indescribable. If the positions were reversed and Obama was this far behind Hillary in the race,
do you think we would have the same allowances? The Clinton name doesn't allow the GOP, Hillary,
states of Michigan or Florida to change the rules. If the other two candidates for president want the rules changed and can somehow make an attempt to justify it. We, so be it. This is all being justified to assist the Dems to let her have her way. Hillary is beligerent, pushy, racist, and psychologically poisoning. We will never have a complete party if they continue to allow Hillary to interfere with the process. She grasping at straws. Trying to get the GOP to give her enough time to brainwash lower income people into to giving her the votes she needs. Her longstanding underdog, stronger than most image is tired and so are her politics. If the party allows Hillary to have this much influence into the process, well why would anyone else vote. Let Hillary do all the heavy lifting.
If you look at Obama's votes, they were not all african americans, ignorant, poor whites and non-hispanic. She is by no means the popular vote (haven't seen anyone yet, pull 75,000 people to one place to listen to their speech) how's that for popularity.

[susane07]

The longer people see Obama, the better for Obama (and us). Not knowing him is the weakness of his candidacy. I have had more peoplel who have said to me recently, "I voted for Hillary but I've gotten very disillusioned with her (Bosnia lie, playing the race card, pandering on the oil tax). The more I see Obama, the more I like him." So this is good! Go Obama!

[Lastamendment]

Great article.

However, the one item I didn't see addressed is the issue of possible defections by Clinton supporters. I have hope that this rift will be healed enough so that it won't affect the outcome, but an appeal needs to be made to those who supported Clinton that their votes for the Democrats are sorely needed to win in November, and that voting for McCain is a poor choice even if they are upset at how the Democratic nomination contest turned out.

Obama needs Clinton supporters to vote for him in order to win the general election. An honorable attempt needs to be made to reconcile with them.

[tmbetterman]

Let the racists vote for McSame. Obama will get more than enough republican­/independe­nt votes to make up the difference.

[clbrune]

Disagree with some of those:

Obama essentially ignored a few states; notably WV and KY. A minor issue though.

The campaign "battle hardened" Obama? Akin to a marathon runner training in thin air conditions? Are completely out of touch with reality?! This primary was a relative love fest. Have you no conception what the Ring Wing is going to do to Obama??

And "the most difficult issues have already been vetted"? You can't be serious. We don't know that at all. Besides, see above. The worst issues are yet to come...the Ring Wing will simply fabricate issues out of whole cloth. Whisper campaigns about his Muslim training, his drug addictions, and his hatred of the White Race. By October, 20% of the Republican Party will want Obama lynched.

I agree with your other points, about mobilization and getting new voters.

[HansB]

And I agree with you! The Clinton camp threw some mud at Obama but didn't hide behind anyone's back. McCain won't throw mud, he'll let the 527s do it. And they'll go all the way, knowing they can lie and sow hatred and their candidate won't have to answer for it.

Still a great article, it's always nice to see optimism in someone who knows what he's talking about.

[clewill]

These are states that he will not win in the general election so why use alot of resources trying get an additional five percent of the vote.

[albiegf13]

"The long primary fight has battle-hardened the Obama organizati­on....."

This hasn't just been a long primary fight. This has been a long primary fight against the toughest and best organized political machine in the history of U S politics. This was David vs. Goliath, The Thrilla in Manila, Rope-a-Dope with reverse Ropa-a-Dope, a political battle of Biblical proportions. My God....! HRC......? She's a walking talking 'BUZZ SAW'.... I'm surprised Obama is still standing, that his legs weren't cut off. This is the most exciting political contest I've ever witnessed. The general election should be a sleeper by comparison, this is one act that's going to be hard to follow.

McCain ain't got a chance, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, he might as well not waste his time running.

Best regards,

Albie