As most of our thoughts are now turned towards this fall and the possibility of a larger than usual loss for the party in power -- the Democrats -- we should take a minute to look ahead to the presidential contest in 2012.
With unemployment likely over the 10% mark by election day this November and hot topics like the war in Afghanistan, the spiraling deficit and immigration to name a few, the Democrats will suffer larger than usual losses but they might not be as dire as analysts and pollsters are predicting. The House and Senate may stay in control of the Democrats because in the final analysis even in an anti-incumbent mood many voters revert back to casting their ballots for someone they know rather than taking a chance with a newcomer.
However, once the midterms are over and new faces emerge on the GOP side who will immediately be cast as potential presidential possibilities in 2012, one person seems to have taken the lead for that position as we head into the 2010 midterms. That person is the ever present former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin.
While many Democrats and pundits and others may laugh and scorn the former 2008 Republican vice-presidential candidates for her views and abruptly leaving her job as governor of Alaska and many of her other behaviors that seem to many as out of the mainstream, she actually seems to be doing quite well in positioning herself for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. She is very actively promoting, endorsing and giving money to candidates who look like likely winners this November. She is on FOX News as a commentator and the public knows her views and opinions on the key issues of the day.
She is certainly appealing to the Tea Party movement and the conservative part of the GOP who determines who will get the nomination as they are the activists who go out and vote in the
primaries and caucuses.
To someone not involved in politics looking at who commentators and pundits and analysts always bring into the 2012 presidential equation it is Sarah Palin. She is outdistancing her likely rivals by her ever present performance on and off the air and on her websites.
How much attention is the senator from South Dakota getting as he lets it be known he wants to run for the GOP presidential nomination? You mean you haven't yet heard of John Thune?
And Newt Gingrich is saying he will most likely run in 2012. He appears to be old news with some new ideas to be sure but he had his day as Speaker of the House and not sure he has mass appeal for the voters.
Mitt Romney should be leading the pack at the moment but aside from his book he is keeping a lower profile these days than Palin for sure.
Tim Pawlenty hopes to run for the nomination but he is unknown to most voters and not many Republicans are that enthusiastic. Haley Barbour is lively and colorful and would make a terrific
campaigner but I don't know if much of the country could handle his deep accent.
Bobby Jindal has enough problems in his state to keep him busy for awhile and Mike Huckabee seems to be known as a jovial and cheerful talk show host more than a serious presidential
candidate at the moment.
Mitch Daniels, Scott Brown, Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum all have an appeal but certainly no national following like Palin has at this point in time.
The Republicans have a weak field at a time when the president's popularity for good reason continues to decline as he seems disconnected from the main events of the day.
With no one having a lot of time to get a national reputation Palin is actually leading the GOP field you might say by default. She is colorful, provocative, engaging and likes to stir things up.
She knows how to make news on a daily basis where the other potential candidates seem to be nowhere to be seen.
She may not be able sway Independents to her side in 2012 and she may turn out to be a marginal candidate who could not appeal to the general public voter in 2012 but at this point in 2010 one would have to christen her the favorite and the frontrunner to get the GOP presidential nomination.
In a so far weak Republican field of presidential possibilities she stands out as the top dog or top grizzly bear or whatever you want to call it but other serious GOP candidates better start taking her seriously and get in the game quickly before she has a lead that can't be beaten.
Palin is not a joke that some people like to make her out to be -- she is doing the right things and doing them well and staying in the spotlight.
Presidential possibilities in 2012 certainly look like Obama and Palin going against one another. Rather than smiling and jumping for joy the Obama team should take Palin seriously! She will be a tougher and more serious opponent than they think.
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 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Personally, I think we need to be somewhat concerned, and act accordingly. I could live with a reasonable republican as president, life would go on, but not with Palin.
Can she win the Republican nomination? Of course. She has the right wing big guns lined up behind her - Limbaugh, Levin, Fox and the SBA list pro abortion people. The fact the republican establishement doesn't want her is immaterial, and is probably a big bonus for her.
There are many secrets just ready to come to the surface and she will be totally wiped out if she runs. She would no longer be able to get a paid speaking engagement after all the secrets hit the airwaves so she will just continue to tease and nod and wink but she will not throw her hat in the ring.
If she does run, I feel like your analysis entirely skips over the whole "republican primary" part. Being sorta vaguely the "most appealing" is all great and makes for a nice discussion, but she still has to pull off an extremely long and arduous primary run. And she's going to get eaten alive, because guys like Mitt Romney aren't going to lay down for such an unbelievable lightweight. Assuming that she wins the republican primary, which is a huge assumption even under the best of circumstances for her, she'll stagger into the general election battered and bruised.
When she gets there, what does she retain? The "dumb vote"? Yes, there are stupid people out there in our society that think it's their right to be ignorant. But if our country actually turns over the reins of the executive to Sarah Palin (words I type with extreme contempt), we have officially failed as a nation, and it's time to pledge allegiance to whomever's in line to be the next global empire. It ain't gonna be us.
She is colorful (in her ignorance), provocative (with her lies), engaging (like her daughter and Levi) and likes to stir things up (by pointing the finger at others rather than taking responsibility for her own shortcomings).
She knows how to make news on a daily basis (without doing a single serious interview and with her ludicrous Facebook PR campaign) where the other potential candidates seem to be nowhere to be seen.
So how unrealistic is that she might actually try to run for President, refusing to talk to the press (except friendly press - meaning Fox and Limbaugh) and refuse to debate and refuse to do anything she doesn't feel like - and yet the press will cover the scraps and fragments she tosses and treat that as information - and a certain amount of the voting public finds that acceptable. Which it is not.
This is what worries me. Sarah distorts reality and she creates her own rules. And it's not a question of people shouldn't play by her rules (which they shouldn't) but that the press forget to hammer home the fact that she dodges and fakes. If they do on rare occasions - she pouts. And that "scares" them and they back off. And so here we are. I could see her literally trying to be President without running for President. And getting away with it.
If she runs, and I'm not convinced she will, she'll be forced into serious discussions on a daily basis. She'll be eaten alive.
However, when it will come to actually running, she will be ripped apart. The Office of the President is something that is not taken lightly however skewed certain segment of the media might be. No more fluff questions. Also, all the improprieties that happened during her almost one term would be under immense scrutiny. She was able to get away with a lot of stuff because she still held office and hence sway in 08.
Now, Sister Sarah has a cushy job. All the money with zero responsibilities. Her base adores her. She is raking in the money. In my opinion, she has far more power by not running. Her strategy will perhaps come clear after the mid-terms. To paraphrase a Chinese curse, we live in interesting times.
Still, the fact still stands that in a hypothetical general election against President Barack Obama, I don't see how Sarah Palin gets to 270 electoral college votes.
In a pretty reasonable hypothetical situation, Barack Obama sweeps the entire Northeast and the West Coast. He picks up Illinois and Hawaii. He does well in the Mid-Atlantic, WV, VA, MD, and could do well in NC and SC. A comprehensive immigration bill is signed into law before 2012 and Obama should pick up or be competitive in NV, NM, AZ, and FL. Now, I don't have all that electoral math written down, but I'd think it would be fair to assume that the total is near or over 270.