iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Robert H. Frank

GET UPDATES FROM Robert H. Frank
 

Success and Luck

Posted: 05/02/09 02:35 PM ET

There's no question that hard work and talent make someone more likely to achieve economic success. But for every successful person who exhibits these qualities, there are hundreds of others who are just as talented and work just as hard, yet earn only modest incomes.

Even talent and the inclination to work hard are themselves heavily dependent on chance. In combination, genes and environment ultimately account for all important individual differences, which means that someone who was born talented and brought up to be hard-working was incredibly lucky to begin with.

This is all so straightforward as to seem completely beyond dispute. Yet luck's role in success remains oddly controversial. If you don't know where a new acquaintance stands politically, just ask him about this. If he insists luck doesn't matter, he's almost surely a staunch conservative. Liberals, even those who have achieved spectacular success in life, are for some reason far more inclined to acknowledge their good fortune.

I wrote about these issues in my most recent column in the New York Times, suggesting that many anti-tax protesters at the recent tea parties were born on third base and thought they'd hit a triple. Shortly after the column ran, I got an e-mail from a producer at the Fox Business Channel asking me to appear on Stuart Varney's show to discuss luck's role in economic success. I agreed, knowing full well that Fox hosts generally go after guests who espouse non-right-wing positions. But I was probably naive not to have expected the relentlessness of the diatribe I faced throughout the segment.

Mr. Varney, like most highly-paid conservatives, is dead certain that his own success owes nothing to luck. Didn't I realize, he asked me, what a handicap it was for someone with a British accent like his to host a television show in the United States? Actually, I didn't. The evidence, in fact, suggests otherwise. Socially disadvantageous accents tend to decay over time, but socially advantageous ones tend to get stronger. Many British expatriates actually have stronger British accents now than when they first arrived in the US.

Of course, that was just one of the many points I wish I thought of in time to mention as Mr. Varney continued to heap scorn on my position. But if you watch the segment, you'll see compelling evidence that Mr. Varney is himself extremely lucky to be earning such a high salary. You may also think I'm extremely lucky to be earning a high salary. But that's exactly my point!

 
There's no question that hard work and talent make someone more likely to achieve economic success. But for every successful person who exhibits these qualities, there are hundreds of others who are ...
There's no question that hard work and talent make someone more likely to achieve economic success. But for every successful person who exhibits these qualities, there are hundreds of others who are ...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 19
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Recency  | 
Popularity
12:17 PM on 05/13/2009
Luck is all around us...good luck and bad luck. It is just happenstance. The real trick is what does one does with the "luck". The vast majority of the "entitled generation” sit around and do nothing except complain about the bad luck and how nobody is doing anything for them (i.e. the government or my employer is doing nothing…).

Truth is we live in a turbulent world and opportunity exists in all the eddies and undercurrents of the turbulence. The ones that will succeed (both financially and otherwise) will see the opportunities created by the turbulence and take advantage of them. And usually they are so busy building and doing, they don’t have time to complain about their bad luck.

Unfortunately, the media hates these people, because their stories are boring. So we rarely hear about them. Rather we get the tea-party, 3rd-basers that gripe about all of the problems of our government. These guys make for much better TV. The result is an entitled society that blames all of their problems on bad luck or somebody else, rather than their own inability to manage their lives and risks.

There is a relevant read that HP blogger (Adlai Wertman) mentioned …Earning Serendipity by Glenn Llopis. Luck is a personal responsibility thing. It is not a left of right issue nor is it a rich or poor issue. It is about how individuals manage their personal environment so that they consistently turn life’s happenstance into positive outcomes.
01:31 PM on 05/04/2009
This is the crux of the socailism/meritocracy aurgument. At what point are our talents the reason we have what we have, or are there other contibutions? Family wealth, each turn of ones life, meeting the right person or situation that propells one foward and not sideways. Some chance encounter, being at the right place at the right time. This does not mean not to work hard. The grace of this nation or any nation are its citizens that work hard and except the rewards and or rejections, but keep on trying. A nations demsie will be those citizens who take all the gifts (Luck) and think it is a birthrite. Kind of like watching the Tudors on Showtime. Meritocracy needs to be rewarded, but with an understood stipulation and taxation. Your success in life is out of your control, so do not take yourself so seriously.
09:10 AM on 05/05/2009
I didn't even know there was such an argument. To discuss success in life seems to be about as important as discussing beauty. Some have it and some do not. We have bigger fish to fry, like the pressing matter of how much energy per capita it takes to feel happy. We already know from established examples that we are using more than twice as much as people who are much happier than we are. But since this little matter decides how hospitable this planet will be in the long term for members of the species homo sapiens, we better start resolving our differences on that matter sooner rather than later. Because if we don't, it will matter very little how many fruits of our success each of us will take into our graves.
01:54 PM on 05/05/2009
Those who oppose socialism condemn the theory because it does not reward hard work and the gifts of talent. The opposition to socialism assumes that all of its citizens, no matter how smart or talented an individual may be, would share the wealth of the nation. A system based on need rather than merit. Will people work hard and take risk if all of their efforts and rewards are shared with others who did nothing to do with the risk? This is the question that capitalist/conservatives use to challenge the redistribution wealth. It is assume that innovation and risk would suffer. Society and the economy would stagnate as it did in USSR. (A poor contrast/comparison). However, what if success had more to do with luck? What happens to the meritocracy argument? More serious debate should expose this assumption.
02:41 PM on 05/03/2009
What an important point. I always say that the smartest thing I ever did was to be born in 1937.It was a low birthrate year and I was too young to serve in WWII. I competed for college and graduate school against a small pool and entered the labor market in an expanding economy. That meant that I never faced the competition the later baby boomers did. Doesn't mean I didn't work hard or that I am not smart. But I do think my career and my life have seemed easier than they appear to those born shortly after the second world war.
01:17 PM on 05/03/2009
I wish more would be written and discussed about this, and not just in academic journals. (This commentary is a great contribution.) Most people are busy completing their training or education, starting their families and finding a job. They don't realize the implications of the subtle flows moving around them. I once lived in an upscale suburb, but after a while I couldn't stay there. The sense of entitlement was overwhelming. My neighbors -- everyone I met -- were ENTITLED to their luxury and exclusion because they worked hard. I have a college education and work at a college with a good salary. (I realize this does not put me in the class of the working rich.) But I am not on the outside longing for the good life. I moved into a city neighborhood with a lot of working class people and cultural diversity. These people work just as hard as my entitled former neighbors. Most of them are also very smart, and carry a vast amount of detailed knowledge about what they do. It just isn't work that has been granted "upper middle class status." I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but it should be brought to light, so that people who make a lot of money won't somehow think they work harder or are more deserving.
01:04 PM on 05/03/2009
It's less luck than timing. My boss told me once that if he tried to do the same things he did back when he got his business started very successfully, he would go bankrupt. He said he was glad to be established and not having to start from scratch. I believe him. There is not a doubt in my mind that he is absolutely right.
09:52 AM on 05/03/2009
Top earners also distinguish themselves by choosing careers where compensation rates become vertical at the top, whereas most people choose careers with a relatively horizontal wage ceiling.

A top engineer might reach an annual salary on the order of $200K. Most "professional" careers don't provide the possibility of social mobility beyond upper middle class regardless of talent.

There are particular careers that cater to the rich, and while the middle class can work their way up through these careers, entrance into the high-end vertical section of the pay scale is protected by institutional gatekeepers that generally promote from within elite social circles.

The financial industry is fighting to keep their bonuses because this is one of the few ways that anybody can make enough money to escape the middle class and join the ranks of the "working rich". The bonuses are what separates rich bankers from middle class engineers.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CaptainFrogbert
12:34 AM on 05/03/2009
As a an advertising and design consultant for numerous fortune 500 companies, I have to say that being in a room with the top executives of most companies is rather a kin to being in a room full of four-year-olds. They are seldom particularly bright, often ill informed and every one of them thinks that they are the centre of the universe. Honestly I once listened to a gang of some 20 "marketing executives" debate about the colour of their launch product. They decided to focus group it for around $100,000. I told them there was no need, the data would show that the public would prefer blue. They said they had to test just to be sure. Three months and thousands of dollars later, the answer was: Blue! Of course it was. Any recent college design graduate knows that. It's always like that working with the "successful." But they are all convinced they have -- and more to the point, deserve -- something special.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
06:21 PM on 05/02/2009
This piece is spot on, and I've been saying the same thing to folks for years now. Conservatives think that everyone is born on third base, and those who can't succeed in America actually attempt to run back to second. 'How could someone not succeed in America? is there response. It's the greatest nation in the world!'

They hate government, and apparently believe that they themselves built the roads, schools, hospitals and communications systems that they've utilized since their birth. They also tend to help those who act, think and look like they do, and, incidentally, they believe that our nation's poor does have health care/insurance: they can go to the emergency room of their local hospital. The recent Pew poll also stated that they favor torture. Yes, I know that's religious folks the poll was referencing, but we know that they are oftentimes one in the same...

If you throw in the fact that many conservatives actually believe that comedian Colbert is one of them, it's clear that their are brain deficiencies at work here. I almost forgot...morality. When you have their leadership praising Romney and big money earners who are the leveraged buyout kings of America, ie, many (mostly white) men who have made their substantial fortunes by not creating anything, but instead by simply destroying companies with borrowed capital and putting folks out of work...these are their heroes. People who make money--the conservative's god...until they need their Jesus on the way down...
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
04:34 PM on 05/02/2009
Luck is probably among the lesser routes to fortune or fame. Sure, you might have the rare starlet who makes it big based on the luck of being discovered at a soda shop or something. But that's typically the farthest from reality that you can get.

Most often it's blind ambition to the point you'd throw your mom in front of a train just to get ahead in life. Or sleep your way to the top, aka marrying your way to the top.

And let's not forget good old nepotism. Family can make you rich and famous without even breaking a sweat. Reference Paris Hilton. Name one blue collar, or even white collar, job that she has ever held in her life. You can't count the "Austrain wave" in which she recieved almost a million dollars as a "white collar job", nor the burger commercial or sex tape.

And I found myself in that same position some years ago when I was floundering for a job and my dad offered to "talk" to some people in govt to help get me a very good job with the Feds. I hated that even tho I understood why he was doing it. I've always been the type of person that if I was going to gain something, be successful, rewards, whatever, I want to be able to earn them. Without the satisfaction of knowing that I earned them on my own, they are meaningless.
yappnmutt
humping legs for liberty
05:06 PM on 05/02/2009
so you are lucky your dad was in the position to help you. rest assured, there are a lot more people a lot more talented than you who should have your job. of course, you would be foolish to turn down your father's help.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
06:48 PM on 05/02/2009
That's exactly why I resisted his help, because I didn't want to be known as some kind of "chosen one". I'd end up becoming everything I was against. In the end, the job I ended up getting was the very job I had done in the military, so I'd like to think that I didn't need his help. Still, I went several places and got the pats on the head from people saying "I knew your father...." type stuff. That was something I couldn't escape unfortunately. And I don't even have that job anymore. I got a medical retirement due to a heart problem.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WorkingClass
05:16 PM on 05/02/2009
You were lucky.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
04:02 PM on 05/02/2009
Success is unquestionably more often a function of luck than anything else, especially if, as was pointed out, you were born on third base to begin with. It never ceases to amaze me that most successful people have a smug attitude about their success, as if nobody else could have done what they did if they happened to be at the right place at the right time. That self righteous sense of entitlement is what causes the excessively risky behavior seen by such egotistical trash as Bernie Madoff, Ken Lay, Ken Lewis, .... and then when their luck goes bad, ultimately causes their downfall, yet their piers are not humbled because they think they are smarter and it won't happen to them. Human nature is flawed and until we get over ourselves, learn from others mistakes, be humble and share the wealth and credit, we will continue to repeat the errors of the past.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
03:12 PM on 05/02/2009
Whatever happened to "There, but for the Grace of God, go I"?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
pittmom
give me sunshine, freedom and a little flower
07:51 AM on 05/03/2009
My mom always used this expression and it has come to bother me. Why would I be more deserving of God's Grace than any other human being? What did the starving child in Africa do to not receive a better life? God dispenses his grace rather randomly.
03:08 PM on 05/02/2009
The late senator John Heinz -- that would be H. John Heinz, III... heir to the massive H.J. Heinz packaged foods (think: ketchup, pickles, mustard) fortune -- taught me a phrase I've been using ever since I heard him use it: "luck of the sperm."

He recognized that he had nothing whatsoever to do with having been born into a family of unimaginable wealth.

How "unimaginable?"

At the time he served in the United States Senate -- a very wealthy club to begin with -- it was often said that Heinz' personal fortune exceeded that of all other senators combined... estimated to be somewhere on the order of $500 billion. Yet he was not like this current crowd of "pull the ladder up behind them" Republicans. He even made national headlines by having publicly ridiculed the Reagan proposal to cut the school lunch program by classifying ketchup, mustard, and pickles as vegetables. Heinz said that was nonsense, adding: "...and I think that I know something about ketchup, mustard, and pickles!"

note: it is also said that John Heinz absolutely despised the obnoxiously arrogant son of President Reagan's vice president, though Heinz wasn't the type to have ever let something like that out publicly.
yappnmutt
humping legs for liberty
02:12 PM on 05/02/2009
a discussion of the role of luck in life is incomplete without the corollary, "life is not fair".