The other day, a panicked friend sent me an article from the Washington Post about a problem in the Barack Obama campaign how it's facing far more racism behind the scenes than at their big public rallies of support.
I understood his panic. I was shocked, as well. Shocked, I say! This was as stunning, horrifying news as I could possibly imagine.
Are you freaking telling me that Barack Obama is ... black??!
Oh -- my -- God.
How deceptive can a man be? And here, all along, I've been watching his candidacy about openness, honesty, being different. And it turns out that he has been hiding the biggest secret of all from us.
I mean, honestly. I heard him with his own mouth talk about his white grandmother. And in his own book he wrote he was born in Hawaii. And I've been told repeatedly that his mother was white. And that she was born in Kansas -- Kansas! I know he graduated from Harvard.
And now you're telling me that Barack Obama is black?
Did he think he could get away with this? Didn't he figure that after he won state after state after state after state, and neared the Democratic nomination for President that someone would look into his life and discover that he wasn't white?
So, Barack Obama is black. And it turns out there is a racist reaction to his campaign. Gee, go figure.
And yet somehow, he's been able to win 16 primaries, and 13 caucuses (- out of 14). He's won elections in 29 states, he's leading in the popular vote, he's leading in the delegate count, leading in superdelegates ...
... and we're supposed to wonder if he is going to be able to win the national election because he's black, and some people may not vote for him because they're racist.
Barack Obama won primaries in Maine, Delaware, Vermont, Wisconsin, Alaska and Utah. All of these states together, the total black population is 872. The closest they come in Vermont to having black people is Ben & Jerry. The Official State Color of Utah is white, and of Alaska is snowy white. He won South Carolina, Alabama and Mississippi. South Carolina was the first state to secede from the Union. George Wallace was the governor of Alabama.
Obama not only won these states, he won some by Grand Canyon margins. Yes, the Hillary Clinton campaign proudly trumpeted her swamping victory in West Virginia as "proof" of her electability, but to be fair, consider the times she was swamped:
In Alaska, Obama beat Clinton 75%-25% - a 50 point margin.
In Idaho, Obama beat Clinton 79%-17% - a 62 point margin.
In Nebraska, Obama beat Clinton 68%- 32% - a 36 point margin.
In Colorado, Obama beat Clinton 67%-32% - a 35 point margin.
Of course there is racism which will be a problem for Obama. (By the way, it's a bigger problem for America.) And of course, there's sexism where many people won't vote for a woman.
But the larger point is that, in the end, it doesn't matter how much people hate you and are going to vote against you. It only matters who is going to vote for you. It only matters if you can get 50% + 1 vote.
The two most viscerally hated candidates in our lifetime were Richard Nixon and George W. Bush -- and both won election twice. Nixon won his two elections in landslides.
This racist reaction to Obama is horrible, despicable. And it's something to be wary of. But we knew it was there. And we know that 14 million Democrats voted on Super Tuesday and only 10 million Republicans. In the end, would you rather be the Democratic presidential candidate this year, or the Republican?
And speaking to that ...
On May 13, Democrat Travis Childers won the Mississippi run-off election for Congress in the highly-Republican 1st District, 53-47% -- that had voted a 62% swamping for George Bush in 2004. Further, this election was deemed so essential to the Republicans that Dick Cheney went there to campaign. More important still for Democrats, this run-off drew one-third more voters than the district's special election three weeks ago. But perhaps most important, the Republicans specifically tried to tie the Democrat to Barack Obama in TV ads - additionally notable because it's a very white district.
Yet the Democrat, tied to Barack Obama, won in a highly-Republican, white district in Mississippi, with a huge turnout of Democrats.
This is horrifying news for Republicans. It also is a bit of a repudiation to the claims Hillary Clinton (and many pundits) are making about how voters will respond to Obama.
Democrats have now won all three special elections, all in highly-conservative districts. As I've written here previously, I think that in November, "reverse coattails" will help whoever is at the top of the Democratic ticket, because Democrats are showing themselves to be so incredibly motivated to go out and vote, and vote out any Republican in office. And Independents, and some Republicans are joining them.
Can Barack Obama do better than Hillary Clinton? Well ... he already has. And it turns out that he has done this while actually being -- are you ready? -- black.
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hah! the GOP is done!
Obama is no John Kerry...just look at the tongue lashings he's giving John McCain.
Obama '08
THANK YOUVERY MUCH...CAN YOU PASS THIS ON TO PAT BUCANNON!
THE FIRST THING THAT CAME OUT OF HIS MOUTH, WAS WHAT'S WRONG WITH OBAMA...SAD!
HAS ANY BODY EVERY THOUGHT THIS COULD BE THE PLAN, LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATED MAP, WHAT DOES MCCAIN HAVE LEFT?
NOOOOO, IT'S ABOUT AGAIN THE OLD MAP, THE OLD WAYS, THE WHITE LADY THE BLACK MAN...IT CAN'T POSSIBLY BE ABOUT THE PARTY...WHAT'S THAT GOT TO DO WITH VOTING!
Dang. I just thought he had a good tan. Elites tend to be tan.
"Nixon won his two elections in landslides."
This is only true if you consider his getting 43% of the popular vote to Humphrey's 42% in 1968 a "landslide." Sorry to be picky, but you need to pull out your history books.
Black???
wow
Obama 08
People will never learn.
Racism - still present - but oh so pathetic that folks vote for those things called "issues" if they have any sense.
Sense - what the repuklicans refuse to belive the voters have.
Repuklicans are being surprised left and right - no pun intended. Just a little pun maybe.
Be sure to vote everyone.
:-)
I'm shocked to learn this. Who would have ever thought a man named Obama wasn't white? I obviously need to pay attention here.
A deceptive article. The Democratic primary is flawed to give power to strong Democratic supporters, but not to choose a competitive Presidential candidate. For example, why not run the states as winner take all, as in the general election. The Dem primary under weights swing states. The election will be determined in swing states.
You also continue to propagate the racial facade. This has nothing to do with race. It has to do with swing voters in swing states. Focus on swingism.
Winning Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, etc mean nothing. The electoral vote will go Republican, put them in McCains electoral column no matter what stupid things he does.
Winning Illinois, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine etc means nothing. Pick any Dem name and it will win in these states in the general election.
The Presidency will be determined by swing voters in Ohio, Penn, WV, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, New Hampshire and a couple more.
Swingism???? I've heard it all now.
"Focus on swingism."??
How can we do that when the Clinton campaign wants us to focus on sexism (a significant effect of which on her candidacy she can't demonstrate) and the popular vote (the amount of which she can't calculate fairly and the relevance of which in a contest for delegates she won't admit publicly)?
Oh what a tangled web they weave when--for thirty-five years--they've practiced to deceive!
I disagree with you on race and your vision of the electoral map.
good one! thanks
He won 32 states...
Dem strongholds in the northeast states vote for Hillary because the Clintons have a long history there, and there is a strong sense of loyalty.
Why don't people look at the real statistics? Hillary gets votes because of her husband Bill, and because she's a woman. Those are the top two reasons. Voting against Obama because he is black is waaaaaay down the list.
In national polls, Obama does just as well or better than Clinton among white voters. Nationally, Hillary has the highest negative ratings of any primary candidate since polls have been taken.
OMG - You are right he IS black. Great article.
I hate to give this terrific author (of whom I'm a huge fan) a "black" eye, but here goes:
Re "But the larger point is that, in the end, it doesn't matter how much people hate you and are going to vote against you. It only matters who is going to vote for you. It only matters if you can get 50% + 1 vote."
Not exactly.
a) It's not about voting against. In a close race, abstaining matters.
b) It's all about the Electoral College. It may be "50% + 1," but only STATE-BY-STATE.
Sad to say, many of the trumpeted Obama blowouts (Colorado excepted) have been in states that are so RED that which Dem DOESN'T MATTER.
It's not about the Party Pennant. It's about the Oval Ring. This IS the situation for which the SuperDelegate mechanism was invented.
UNITY 08
"This IS the situation for which the SuperDelegate mechanism was invented."
Not really. But it makes the right decision anyway: the superdelegates are going to Obama.
Doesn't reality suck when you don't agree with it?
Bad argument, Mr. Elisberg. Let's use your own examples. You want us to consider the times "she was swamped" but list only states that held caucuses, not primaries.
In the Nebraska, Idaho, Alaska and Colorado caucuses there were a total of 122,652 votes cast for Mr. Obama, and 54,800 votes cast for Ms. Clinton. For his 67,852 vote margin of victory, Mr. Obama received 28 delegates more than Ms. Clinton.
In the West Virginia PRIMARY, Ms. Clinton received 239,298 votes to Mr. Obama's 91,747. For her 147,551 vote margin of victory, Ms. Clinton received only 12 delegates more than Mr. Obama. (Even weirder when you consider that a vote margin of only 199 votes -- of only 305 cast! -- in Alaska alone netted Mr. Obama an additional FIVE delegates.)
Obama = 67,852 more votes in caucuses = 28 delegates
Clinton = 147,551 more votes in primaries = 12 delegates
This leads me to point out that in states that held primaries AND caucuses, Mr. Obama's victory percentages display clear evidence of the undemocratic nature of caucuses. He won the Texas caucus by 11% but lost the Texas primary by 4%. He won the Washington caucus by 37% but only 5% in the primary.
So, who would be in the lead if there were *only* primaries?
Slice it up anyway you please but Obama still leads. He's won more states, more delegates, and more of the popular vote. You might not like the DNC decision not to award delegates in FL and MI but it was afterall a decision made before the race began. You may not like caucuses, but those who live in caucus states get to decide whether they prefer caucus or primary-- not you and not Clinton. So where does this leave us-- oh yeah-- Obama is the presumptive nominee. Whether or not he's "allowed" to say it. That's democracy, my friend. You can't change the rules to suit your candidate just because she's losing. You can prolong the inevitible but you can't change it. Eventually you have to decide who you are going to vote for Obama or McCain.
Your math method demonstrates why the US scores so badly in math, in comparison to other countries.
The caucus system uses fewer voters to represent the toality of the state, so the total number of likely voters in each state has to be factored.
Secondly, you choose the only primary state (WV) where Clinton had a significant victory.
Sorry but your chamberpot has some leaks.....
Scaling up based on caucuses?
Not counting Florida and Michigan?
Some "democratic" process we got ourselves in the ironically-named party.
even counting them she is still behind
I loved this article.But I keep thinking, in the states like W.Va., won't most of the Hillary voters either stay home or hold their noses and vote for McCain? Perhaps someone out there can enlighten me, but I am ashamed and embarrassed by what appears to be an appalling amount of racism, still, in some states.. I'm way too old to be an innocent about this, but I had really hoped we had made some progress in this area. It appears we have in some places, but not at all in others, It is just sad. I fully expect my state of Florida to screw this up for the Democrats yet again, too. Yet I live in southeast Fl.,which really is a true melting pot, and financially, is the tail wagging the dog of the rest of the state,but somehow, in state and national elections, we end up in the "back of the bus' to coin an old cliche. I support Obama with all my heart, but I fear Florida will let me down again. Maybe I should just move to North Carolina..
better question who would be in the lead if people didn't like Hillary so much?
Huzzah.
Or if Florida and MI were counted.
still obama
Huzzah.
really, at this stage, do you have to trot out one more tired liberal cliche about being color blind -- gee I wouldn't have known you were black if you hadn''t told me. don't you get it, they voted for him because he was different, which meant having an exotic name like barack hussein obama and, yes, being black, or to be more precise, high yellow. to quote one more tired cliche that nonetheless wears well, the medium IS the message. ir's all about race, as you will see in november. so, enjoy yourselves while you can.
Obama must drop out. It's the only way Hillary can win. If Hillary does not win then she will RUIN Obama. She may even campaign for McCain as most of her supporters are. I have to admit that Hillary and McCain have MUCH more in common than Hillary and Obama so I guess it's just natural to go from one to the other. The Democratic party is no place for McCainiacs. Evidently, it is no place for Clintonistas either. Good riddance.
LOL!
"Obama must drop out. It's the only way Hillary can win."
Well said.
"She may even campaign for McCain as most of her supporters are."
Unadulterated poppycock.
Have fun going it alone without 49.9% of your own party.
UNITY 08, or McSAME/tbd 08. It's up to you.
Who knew?
Nice Post ... Thank you. LOL
I love this article!!
But don't you SEE??? If we just reject everything Democrats putatively stand for AND everything that made people vote for Obama in the first place we MIGHT be able to convince the hard core bigot class to vote for Obama!
The only way to be sure of victory is by guaranteeing that you can't tell the results of a victory from those of a defeat! Hillary told us so!
Wow. This is a great article. The Clinton camp and the so-called MSM that cheered the neocons and Bush to invade Iraq have been pushing this ruse because all they know is race-bait, create conflict and then feed off it. Yep, Obama has been winning despite the fact that he is black!!
Barack Obama is an American who can inspire this nation to restored greatness. I don't care what color he is. Those who do are stuck in the 19th century, and deserve to be ignored.
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Posted May 20, 2008 | 12:40 PM (EST)