My friend Mick is an unceasingly upbeat person - except when it comes to the Democratic Party's chances in any election. Mick is still nervous about whether Democrats can win the House two years ago.
Even with every major, respected poll giving Barack Obama a double digit lead, "My fingers are crossed" is the best he can muster. I'm always able to get him breathing, though, with my default question: "How nervous would you be right now if you were a Republican?"
Nonetheless, Barack Obama is absolutely right in admonishing his supporters against assuming a landslide victory. In any election, you have to stay aggressive. You must keep pressing your case, pushing your agenda. You can never take anything for granted, never leave the back door open for intruders. Never.
There's another huge reason Democrats must keep on the offensive. Given the vicious smearing of Barack Obama, it's especially essential for him, should he win, to not just sneak in but win by as much as possible, to get an unquestioned mandate.
So, it's critical that no one remotely assumes a landslide, let alone even a victory.
But that said - the responsibility is no longer on Barack Obama to explain why there isn't going to be a landslide. The burden is now on the McCain campaign to explain why there won't.
I admit to being biased about this. When Barack Obama dropped behind John McCain after the Republican Convention, and Democrats panicked, I wrote "12 Reasons Why Obama-Biden Will Win." And back in June, before both candidates were even nominated, I wrote, "I get the sense that Barack Obama will clean the table with John McCain."
I could be completely wrong about this. Absolutely. No question.
But I require someone to explain specifically why.
"You never know" doesn't count. You never know about anything. "You never know" isn't an explanation. It's a prayer.
With Barack Obama leading in polls by double digits. With him at the door of 270 electoral votes and leading in eight battleground states. With Sen. Obama ahead in likability and trustworthiness, and with a robust grassroots organization. With John McCain acknowledging he's behind -
- What can John McCain do to not just win, but keep the election from becoming a landslide? I'm open to a convincing argument.
I'm listening.
Let's take a look at his options.
John McCain can play to racial fears. The problem is, at the point, the public has a pretty good idea that Barack Obama is black. And he's leading by double digits.
Sen. McCain can play to fears that Barack Obama is a dangerous outsider. The problem is that he's already tried that. And not only were Americans not fooled, but the effort backfired and Mr. McCain lost points.
Mr. McCain can also play to fears of voter fraud. But the public doesn't believe him or, worse, care.
Sen. McCain can keep telling the public that he and Sarah Palin are Mavericks. That's wearied the public so much, it's become a drinking game. At this point, if people want to see a "Maverick," they'll rent a video of the old TV series.
So, what else can John McCain do to turn the election around and keep it from becoming a landslide?
Perhaps the McCain campaign can run on experience. Unfortunately, after nominating Sarah Palin, that issue was lost forever. Now, it just raises concerns of John McCain's health.
Maybe then, John McCain can show how he'll end the economic crisis. The huge problem is that he's said it's not his strong suit, he's tried four different economic proposals, and his platform was developed by Phil Gramm, the champion of deregulation, who said we were merely in a "mental recession."
John McCain can trumpet his steady leadership. But that went out the window when he stopped his campaign to rush back to Washington and looked out of control.
What else can John McCain try then, to just win?
He can talk about Iraq. The Surge. Afghanistan. Mr. McCain's problem here is that he supported the Iraq War, and Americans want it over. He minimized Afghanistan - which is becoming the prime focus of our military interests. And even the Surge never ignited the public, being momentary news that didn't even accomplish its goal of uniting Sunnis and Shi'ites to govern together.
He could try the standby Republican wedge issue of abortion. Except he lost women long before he recently disparaged them about their "health" And his running mate's position is untenable to most Americans.
Then again, he could run on public support of his running mate. If it existed. But the public has caught on to Sarah Palin, and her negatives exceed her favorables by 10 points, the lowest of all candidates.
The McCain campaign could run on health care, energy and education. Except that polls have Sen. Obama widely winning with the public on these issues.
So, what can John McCain find that will not only turn this election around, but keep it from becoming a landslide?
He can run against the Republican president and Republican party record. But he's a Republican and part of that record, voting with George Bush over 90% of the time.
He can wait for Barack Obama to break his calm demeanor. The thing is, after two years campaigning it should be pretty clear that that's not a calm demeanor, that's who Barack Obama is.
John McCain can suddenly become warm and fuzzy and stop attacking. The thing is, that's not who John McCain is. And that's not what his base wants, and they would leave him in droves.
What can John McCain do, just to win?
He could go back on his word and bring up Rev. Wright. But everyone in America already knows that story - it was the headline for weeks. And the general public understood it back then, and doesn't care.
There's no damaging tape of Barack Obama. If one hasn't been found by now...it doesn't exist. There's far more chance of another damaging tape of Sarah Palin.
At this point, we're down to fumes.
Honestly, and I'm dead serious, I am willing to be convinced that John McCain can turn his campaign around, erase Barack Obama's lead, and win, and not be crushed in a landslide. It is absolutely, completely possible.
But I require actual reasons how.
Because all the while, none of this exists in a vacuum. Because all the while, the Obama campaign aggressively pushes on.
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He seems so astounding
Doesn't McCain ever ask himself, "How will I be mentioned in the history books?"
Time's getting short, but it's not too late for him to (1) stick to issues, (2) avoid the lies and smears, and (3) go out with some class and dignity.
He won't do it, of course, but he should.
Obama could do something very, very stupid, on the dead girl/live boy level but that seems unlikely right now.
There could be a national Bradley Effect on a massive scale but again, that seems unlikely.
The election could be postponed after W attacks Iran and uses it as a pretext to declaring martial law (vaguely possible but he probably would have done it by now if he was going to).
The only realistic scenario for a McCain win is to steal it through the 2000 method: mass caging, voting machine "glitches" and, if all else fails, the SCOTUS. Oh, you can probably count on a few riots too, regardless of who wins.
FiveThirty
We MUST elect Bar.ack Oba.ma. If we do, the "Southern strategy" initiated by Nixon in 1968 (a divide-and
What is your goal? To convince everybody of the very thing you want them not to feel too sure of?
First, Obama doesn't need a landslide for a mandate. Look at the mandate Bush assumed after "winning" with fewer votes than Gore. All he needs to do is win and get a democratic congress. That will be mandate enough.
And by the way, here is about the most confusing couple of paragraphs I have ever read:
"So, it's critical that no one remotely assumes a landslide, let alone even a victory.
But that said - the responsibi
Huh???
These obviously are not strong political arguments, but are simply things that can happen (and have happened in the past).
In 2 weeks, you won't need to be convinced one way or the other. There really is no point speculatin
I find it odd that when Bush barely eeked out victories in 00 and 04 the right claimed this country was not center but center right. Now they are saying Obama has to move to the center? Why?
I suggest those who think Democrats have to meet republics in the center need to clean out their head gear.
They are about to witness another 30 years without power much like after the landslides by Democrats after the 64 race, and like that time we can once again thank hard core conservati
the republican
Sen. Obama will need all the help he can get from the local, county, state and federal politician
if you live in one of the states that has early voting GO VOTE and then volunteer with the Obama/Bide
VOLUNTEER and VOTE
http://www
They are easy to tamper/hac
For example, um, let's see. Give me a minute. Wait.
Oh yeah! Oh never mind. What about...th
Really, the big concerns are mainly voter fraud, vote suppressio
Thank you :>)