When a Landslide Isn't a Landslide

My friend Mick is an unceasingly upbeat person - except when it comes to the Democratic Party's chances in any election. Mick is still nervous about whether Democrats can win the House two years ago.

Even with every major, respected poll giving Barack Obama a double digit lead, "My fingers are crossed" is the best he can muster. I'm always able to get him breathing, though, with my default question: "How nervous would you be right now if you were a Republican?"

Nonetheless, Barack Obama is absolutely right in admonishing his supporters against assuming a landslide victory. In any election, you have to stay aggressive. You must keep pressing your case, pushing your agenda. You can never take anything for granted, never leave the back door open for intruders. Never.

There's another huge reason Democrats must keep on the offensive. Given the vicious smearing of Barack Obama, it's especially essential for him, should he win, to not just sneak in but win by as much as possible, to get an unquestioned mandate.

So, it's critical that no one remotely assumes a landslide, let alone even a victory.

But that said - the responsibility is no longer on Barack Obama to explain why there isn't going to be a landslide. The burden is now on the McCain campaign to explain why there won't.

I admit to being biased about this. When Barack Obama dropped behind John McCain after the Republican Convention, and Democrats panicked, I wrote "12 Reasons Why Obama-Biden Will Win." And back in June, before both candidates were even nominated, I wrote, "I get the sense that Barack Obama will clean the table with John McCain."

I could be completely wrong about this. Absolutely. No question.

But I require someone to explain specifically why.

"You never know" doesn't count. You never know about anything. "You never know" isn't an explanation. It's a prayer.

With Barack Obama leading in polls by double digits. With him at the door of 270 electoral votes and leading in eight battleground states. With Sen. Obama ahead in likability and trustworthiness, and with a robust grassroots organization. With John McCain acknowledging he's behind -

- What can John McCain do to not just win, but keep the election from becoming a landslide? I'm open to a convincing argument.

I'm listening.

Let's take a look at his options.

John McCain can play to racial fears. The problem is, at the point, the public has a pretty good idea that Barack Obama is black. And he's leading by double digits.

Sen. McCain can play to fears that Barack Obama is a dangerous outsider. The problem is that he's already tried that. And not only were Americans not fooled, but the effort backfired and Mr. McCain lost points.

Mr. McCain can also play to fears of voter fraud. But the public doesn't believe him or, worse, care.

Sen. McCain can keep telling the public that he and Sarah Palin are Mavericks. That's wearied the public so much, it's become a drinking game. At this point, if people want to see a "Maverick," they'll rent a video of the old TV series.

So, what else can John McCain do to turn the election around and keep it from becoming a landslide?

Perhaps the McCain campaign can run on experience. Unfortunately, after nominating Sarah Palin, that issue was lost forever. Now, it just raises concerns of John McCain's health.

Maybe then, John McCain can show how he'll end the economic crisis. The huge problem is that he's said it's not his strong suit, he's tried four different economic proposals, and his platform was developed by Phil Gramm, the champion of deregulation, who said we were merely in a "mental recession."

John McCain can trumpet his steady leadership. But that went out the window when he stopped his campaign to rush back to Washington and looked out of control.

What else can John McCain try then, to just win?

He can talk about Iraq. The Surge. Afghanistan. Mr. McCain's problem here is that he supported the Iraq War, and Americans want it over. He minimized Afghanistan - which is becoming the prime focus of our military interests. And even the Surge never ignited the public, being momentary news that didn't even accomplish its goal of uniting Sunnis and Shi'ites to govern together.

He could try the standby Republican wedge issue of abortion. Except he lost women long before he recently disparaged them about their "health" And his running mate's position is untenable to most Americans.

Then again, he could run on public support of his running mate. If it existed. But the public has caught on to Sarah Palin, and her negatives exceed her favorables by 10 points, the lowest of all candidates.

The McCain campaign could run on health care, energy and education. Except that polls have Sen. Obama widely winning with the public on these issues.

So, what can John McCain find that will not only turn this election around, but keep it from becoming a landslide?

He can run against the Republican president and Republican party record. But he's a Republican and part of that record, voting with George Bush over 90% of the time.

He can wait for Barack Obama to break his calm demeanor. The thing is, after two years campaigning it should be pretty clear that that's not a calm demeanor, that's who Barack Obama is.

John McCain can suddenly become warm and fuzzy and stop attacking. The thing is, that's not who John McCain is. And that's not what his base wants, and they would leave him in droves.

What can John McCain do, just to win?

He could go back on his word and bring up Rev. Wright. But everyone in America already knows that story - it was the headline for weeks. And the general public understood it back then, and doesn't care.

There's no damaging tape of Barack Obama. If one hasn't been found by now...it doesn't exist. There's far more chance of another damaging tape of Sarah Palin.

At this point, we're down to fumes.

Honestly, and I'm dead serious, I am willing to be convinced that John McCain can turn his campaign around, erase Barack Obama's lead, and win, and not be crushed in a landslide. It is absolutely, completely possible.

But I require actual reasons how.

Because all the while, none of this exists in a vacuum. Because all the while, the Obama campaign aggressively pushes on.

Comments

[NamelessGenXer]

"Mr. McCain can also play to fears of voter fraud. But the public doesn't believe him or, worse, care." Or even worse --- the public is on to GOP Voter Suppression schemes and are stealing their will to vote like their lives (and Constitutional rights) depended on it. Despite MSM efforts to call this race to soon in order to stop Dems from voting, I predict the greatest voter turnout in U.S. History with huge (possibly ugly) backlash against the well-funded GOP "Stop the Vote" efforts on election day.

[NotMcCain]

Rather than offering "low road" suggestions to McCain (he's already explored all of them anyway), I think we should focus on how he can SALVAGE -some- positive associations with his name.

He seems so astoundingly clueless. This will be one of the pivotal--most historic--elections in U.S. history, both for symbolism and for reality.

Doesn't McCain ever ask himself, "How will I be mentioned in the history books?"

Time's getting short, but it's not too late for him to (1) stick to issues, (2) avoid the lies and smears, and (3) go out with some class and dignity.

He won't do it, of course, but he should.

[elZaphod]

I understand completely. Everything points to Obama winning, so I'm nervous he somehow won't. Polls don't equal votes. Save the celebrations for the 5th. Then party like mad.

[EbonBear]

There's a few ways McCain could win:
Obama could do something very, very stupid, on the dead girl/live boy level but that seems unlikely right now.
There could be a national Bradley Effect on a massive scale but again, that seems unlikely.
The election could be postponed after W attacks Iran and uses it as a pretext to declaring martial law (vaguely possible but he probably would have done it by now if he was going to).
The only realistic scenario for a McCain win is to steal it through the 2000 method: mass caging, voting machine "glitches" and, if all else fails, the SCOTUS. Oh, you can probably count on a few riots too, regardless of who wins.

FiveThirtyEight.com has Obama at 344 electoral votes right now and my local bookie has stopped taking bets on an Obama win (he's only taking bets on the margin of victory now). The polls will probably shift around and tighten in the next twelve days but I don't think Obama's going to drop below about 325.

[franklin opt]

The kind of campaigns we are seeing from McCain/Palin and associated 527's is a variation on the "Southern Strategy." They are trying to turn Americans against each other and that's the last thing we need now, given two wars and a deep recession.

We MUST elect Bar.ack Oba.ma. If we do, the "Southern strategy" initiated by Nixon in 1968 (a divide-and-conq.uer strategy using cul.tural differences between No.rth and Sou.th as wedge issues) will be D-E-A-D at last; honesty and intellect will be respected and real, constructive debate will be the way to resolve differences and, the best ideas - from minds of all political persuasions - will be applied to problems.

[SethBLiNK]

FIrst you say that people can't assume a victory or a landslide, then you go on to give all the reasons you think there will be a landslide.

What is your goal? To convince everybody of the very thing you want them not to feel too sure of?

First, Obama doesn't need a landslide for a mandate. Look at the mandate Bush assumed after "winning" with fewer votes than Gore. All he needs to do is win and get a democratic congress. That will be mandate enough.

And by the way, here is about the most confusing couple of paragraphs I have ever read:

"So, it's critical that no one remotely assumes a landslide, let alone even a victory.

But that said - the responsibility isn't no longer on Barack Obama to explain why there isn't going to be a landslide. The burden is now on the McCain campaign to explain why there won't."

Huh???

[joesnuffy]

There is always people's racism cropping up in the voting booth. There is always the republicans suppressing dem votes in key states. There is voter fraud. There is Osama Bin Laden or some terrorist attack or threat popping up. There are terrible things that can "happen" to Obama.

These obviously are not strong political arguments, but are simply things that can happen (and have happened in the past).

In 2 weeks, you won't need to be convinced one way or the other. There really is no point speculating any more. By the time someone makes a reasonable argument, we will already know the answer.

[USA1776]

Will Republicans try to steal the election, you betcha. Everyone votes, no matter what state, what time zone, if they call the race or not. West Coasters need to be standing in line even as the polls close to vote Obama. It needs to be a decisive, overwhelming victory.

[spillersgirl]

I encourage everyone to visit afterdowningstreet.org to prepare ahead of time if McCain should steal the election. This country MUST establish a national standard policy for elections -- the process needs to be federalized -- needs a massive overhaul! This s*** has got to stop! I want federal, Constitutional laws that manage elections. If something isn't done, and soon, Americans will lose their voting birth right. We this loss comes the death of America!

[cowboyjerkface]

By republic and GW Bush standards, 51% and 271 electorial votes is a mandate and the gop foot soldiers never argued that it wasn't so in essence Obama will have such a huge mandate that any grumbling from the gutless gop will be sour grapes and should be responded to with the hard core truth of "remember 00 and 04 and Bush's mandate?"

I find it odd that when Bush barely eeked out victories in 00 and 04 the right claimed this country was not center but center right. Now they are saying Obama has to move to the center? Why?

I suggest those who think Democrats have to meet republics in the center need to clean out their head gear.

They are about to witness another 30 years without power much like after the landslides by Democrats after the 64 race, and like that time we can once again thank hard core conservatives for scaring the crap out of America so much that America is once again going to be a center left country...ie..very liberal and I love it!

[NationalTreasure]

ahh someone else has noticed that the republicans realize that they are nearing the McCain/Palin campaign is nearing it's agnol breath and have nothing loose so they are not going to go pretty

the republicans are making every effort the marginalize and deligitimize an Obama presidency

Sen. Obama will need all the help he can get from the local, county, state and federal politicians so get out and vote

if you live in one of the states that has early voting GO VOTE and then volunteer with the Obama/Biden campaign or with one of the down ballot Democratic canidates

VOLUNTEER and VOTE

[spillersgirl]

Has anyone investigated the companies who write the software for the voting machines? I'm wondering if these companies are conspiring with the Republications? Does anyone know about this aspect? I'm going to try Google.

[RussFromCA]

Google Diebold voting machines. They have been banned in CA.

http://www.wired.com/politics/security/news/2004/04/63298

They are easy to tamper/hack and the company refuses to allow an independent audit of the software.

[joesnuffy]

That's good and all. But California is not an issue.

[MathIsTruth]

Oh, come on, there are plenty of reasons McCain could turn this around.

For example, um, let's see. Give me a minute. Wait.

Oh yeah! Oh never mind. What about...the thing with the thing? Or, uhhhh....

Really, the big concerns are mainly voter fraud, vote suppression, rigged voting machines, and the like. Let's hope that this doesn't happen. A stolen election will end in chaos. The Republicans got a pass in 2000. Won't happen again.

[Glenn1441]

Wonderful piece - and yet I sit here with fingers crossed, lol. And, I'm sticking out my tongue :>P

Thank you :>)

[spillersgirl]

McCain and his bunch of thugs can, will, and are CHEATING -- that's how they'll win, if they win! Robert, I believe this is the obvious answer you are looking for.