McCain's Rev. Wright Attack Ad Can Drive Undecideds: Polling Science Tells Us So

In these last hours of the campaign, the sudden onslaught of McCain 527 "swiftboat" style Rev. Jeremiah Wright attack ads are worrisome and could swing undecided voters and shift close battleground states into the McCain column.

The ads show Rev. Jeremiah Wright and we hear his voice saying "God Damn America," the "KKK of A", and other incendiary words. There are a woman's words about trusting the presidency to a man who had Wright as his pastor and mentor, and then print saying of Barack Obama: "Too Radical, Too Risky" for America. Various Rev. Wright speeches are on youTube and the ad itself was there earlier today.

Millions of dollars are being spent on these ads that are all quite similar and appear to come from different groups (goptrust.com, as one example). They just ran one inside "Hardball" on MSNBC. And those millions of dollars aren't being spent without some people thinking their money is being well spent and will get results.

That's because both parties, and these 527 and other numbered groups, test market their ad campaigns well in advance, then tweak the ads many times over with carefully selected focus groups of undecided voters.

The technique has been honed and made into a science over the last 20 years, especially since Lee Atwater developed the method into a disturbing art in the Willie Horton ads that tested well for Vice President Bush in his smear of Gov. Dukakis in 1988. Incidentally, Atwater asked for forgiveness on his deathbed, regretting what he had done in his career with such ads.

The critical point is that it is easier to scare undecideds than uplift and inspire these same voters. The psychobiological study of fear demonstrates this.

People innately fear more immediate dangers that can be readily imagined than more distant threats. They experience real bodily fear and anxiety. Global warming, for example, doesn't scare most voters much in the here and now as it will happen more in years to come and some may rationalize miles from our shores. It takes some thinking to get worked up about global warming.

A presidential candidate linked closely to his own African American pastor who said "God Damn America" will not calm the concerns of millions of shaky and impressionable voters.

A four to six point margin in some battleground states with five to nine percent of voters still undecided coupled with an unpredictable Bradley effect--never tested in a presidential election--and so many other factors, make for uncertainty.

And the Bradley effect may come more into play now that Rev. Wright's preaching style and voice and picture have been brought back into the campaign. The ad clearly permits the McCain support groups to play the race card, and inject primal racial fear, in a very deliberate way.

Meanwhile, commentators are spewing out one Obama path to 270+ electoral voters after another for Tuesday night, and all the electoral college maps leaning blue are impressive.

But I am not convinced. I think Senator Obama may well win, but I also know the power of negative attack ads on less informed voters. The people who tweak campaign ads for every last bit of power are not paid millions of dollars for nothing.

This is true on either side, from the most inspiring to duplicitious of ads.

And who knows if on Monday a new fear inducing ad from a McCain support group won't take up another feature of Obama's biography?

Comments

[Retrofuturistic]

Hopefully, people will notice that Obama took the high road (again) and didn't put out a compensatory McCain/Palin pro-Dobson, pro-choice, pro book-burning, pro witch burning, pro-right-wing Pentecostal, pro-fascism ad.

[skippypicasso]

The ad is poorly done and surprisingly ineffective. Especially nice to see Senator Obama went to church and not to a mosque as was suggested in all of those emails I was receiving earlier in the year. My priest says a lot of things I disagree with, and I think most people don't have exactly the same view as their pastor, priest, rabbi.... There are no more undecideds as of today anyway, so this was really a waste of money. It seems that trying to make Obama look like an African-American Christian isn't going to sway anyone who already didn't like him because he was an African-American. The rest will see it as just another attack ad on Obama's 'associati­ons.' I expect we'll be saying it backfired.

[SonyaInTx]

This disgusting ad is being run at every commercial break on MSNBC in Houston, Texas.

[steamboat]

Wright commercial will make no difference­.........M­cCain's campaign was ran terribly by whoever his manager was. (1) Instead of Wright, McCain should have hit Obama on FUZZY MATH, that being 95% of us get tax-breaks despite all these stupendous amounts of money that programs and policies Obama promises to have (2 more brigades in Afghanistan, healthcare program (which if totally implimented will cost even more per year then we spend on Iraq), 90-day freeze on foreclosures (remember, somebody has to pay the bill for those 90 days, thats us taxpayers folks), more money for education, entitlements, infrastructure, and foreign aid. And tax-break to corporations if they stay in USA . Again, FUZZY MATH. (2) Obama here in Illinois ENDORSED a racist named Dorothey Tillman after the woman said on the Chicago City Council, "the Voting Rights Act ONLY pertains to African-Americans and not them Mexican-Americans". McCain should have made it a topic in hispanic communities. (3) They were way too late with what Obama said about the coal-industry. Had McCain used this weeks ago he might have won Pennsylvania. But not now.

[notconfindtweenhatnboots]

Everyone seems to overlook the fact that Rev. Wright joined the marines in 1960, even though he had a deferrment and a scholarship to a good university.

In condemning Rev. Wright, these people seem to be disrespecting the judgment of Pres. Lyndon B Johnson who selected medic & marine Jeremiah Wright to work on his medical team and treat him when he was, as President, recovering from being operated on.

All of these people who condemn Rev. Wright seem to overlook the fact that he is a longterm respected preacher in the large mainstream (mostly white) denomination, The United Church of Christ.

If everyone is talking about why Obama would have been a member of this church, shouldn't someone also be asking everyone who is a member of the United Church of Christ why they would have such a supposed radical in their denomination?

The answer is that Rev. Wright IS a respected church leader and someone who truly understands what it means to be a Christian. Rev. Wright has shown by his ACTIONS that he a good man and real patriot.

[JTyroler]

In Kansas City, the Rev. Wright ad is being shown at almost every commercial break on MSNBC.

[Hopeandaplan]

This ad is running about 3 to 6 times an hour here in the Denver market. Ugh.

[knowBuddhaU]

My fellow sincere HuffPosters, if you have doubts about a participant in our discussions, you can check their profile. You can read their other comments. You can flag their profile as abusive.

Don't let 'em push your buttons!

THINK! Some of the posts you see will be there only to distract and antagonize us.

Remember the Pentagon's Message Force Multiplier program? It specifically includes Web-based attacks of the sort you can see for yourself, if you think before reacting impulsively to an insult.

Attacks come in all forms. Posts that are blatantly off topic and/or wildly provocative deserve to be ignored. Don't let the bastards grind you.

Be on your guard, especially today and Election Day.

[GrainOSand]

KBU:

That is sound advice. The one comment I made on this story was a response to what I believed to be an illegitimate view. After reading your comment, I was curious and so I checked the profile and low and behold, all you stated was confirmed. However, if we are to get beyond the sickness that exists, then when we signs of it, is it not our duty...our obligation to help our fellow Americans to become unstuck on stupid? Barack Obama, in his now historic address on race in America, said, that we need to have the conversation that exposes the myths and the truths of race. One of the reasons why there continues to be a challenge concerning race in this country is that for too long ignorance has been ignored or excused. The election of Mr. Obama as president will speak to the question of race in America, but it will not end the healing process and therefore it cannot end the discussion.

Thanks for the tip though, I smiled as I realized that some are intent on distraction and are not intent on furthering the possibilities of greatness that comes through unity. Such are the sick among us.

[karmagirl1061]

It's the economy!!!!!! I could not care less about Rev. Wright!!! I care about having employment, a place to live, and healthcare. This is what the majority of Americans care about! This is just another useless and "played" distraction!

[karmagirl1061]

Economics trumps all this Rev. Wright BS.

[SangZe]

This is what the media, having failed with its polls and predictions, will be talking about on Wednesday morning. Mark my words.

[Blain]

What's the point of this article? First you are giving only one side of the hypothesis. Independent undecided voters are also known to be turned off by negative advertising. Did the relentless attacks using Ayers work? They did not and I think Americans are smarter than that. I think we should let the republicans do the hand wringing, even MCCains own advisers acknowledge that they have a huge uphill climb to win this election.

[DrFrescas]

I just saw one on MSNBC. Sad. McCain should be ashamed of himself.

[Gratitudinous]

Thank God that the negative talk about America is exposed!
Obama should not be penalized for this, since he has raised about such rhetoric!
Thank God!

[Gratitudinous]

Thank God, someone thought this was important!
How could a minister say such things!
What a hypocrisy!

[GrainOSand]

Context is everything concerning the message of Reverend Wright. The informed will hear the snippets from the much larger message and understand the context of elections stolen by smear and distortion, and they will not be moved to vote for McCain or the GOP, they will be repulsed and find the GOP repugnant. The affected, those who have lived in a society and felt the brunt of the sometimes blunt and sometimes sharp instrument that is hate, will understand why a man stood in his pulpit and beckoned his flock of believers to not be disheartened, to stand and be proud. Those who live with open eyes, open hearts, and open minds will understand the context of Reverend Wright’s message, not of hate, but of real love for country that called him to indict country for perceived or real wrongdoing. Those people will know the element of fact and truth in snippets meant to distort greater messages of love into political instruments of divisive hate. Reverend Wright is not a racist but large sections of America are afflicted by that disease and we are all guilty for sitting in the American church all these years and listening to the many sermons of hate that have been preached. Some of us did leave (Nina Simone) the hate-filled church and others stayed to fight the beast from within. If Reverend Wright is able to turn the election, that is an indictment of America not of Barack Obama.