Obama: Hope for a Change

Seems like everyone has advice for the Obama campaign. Democrats grouse in the New York Times that he better start putting "meat on the bones" of his hope and change rhetoric. Paul Krugman sensibly calls for some passion on the economy. Even Mark Penn, fresh off his incandescent performance in Hillary Clinton's run, agrees, sort of.

With Democrats racking up double digit leads in party ID, and what Republicans call their "brand" debased, McCain is running basically even with Obama in the polls. No wonder folks are starting to get worried.

This isn't time for hemlock. Imagine if, a year ago, someone had bet you that a black anti-war candidate named Barack Obama, barely three years into national office, would be running neck and neck with John McCain for the presidency. Not many of us would have put our money down. That said, there is significant cause for concern.

Part of the reason that McCain is still in this race is that, to date, the campaign has been almost entirely a referendum on Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has been focused on reassuring people that they should feel comfortable voting for a young African American with a funny name. The McCain campaign, once Rove's minions took over, has been focused on scaring people from voting for what they paint as the inexperienced celebrity with a funny name and a mysterious past. Obama's campaign foolishly discouraged support for independent expenditure committees. No one is really talking about McCain. Obama wins a race that is a choice; he could lose one that's simply a referendum on him.

And this is part of why people think Obama hasn't really said anything beyond "hope and change." In fact, he's put out detailed policy papers on all range of subjects, readily available on his web site. He's devoted many speeches to detailing different policies. But he's done very little clear contrast with McCain -- and it is the contrast -- the contesting of ideas and direction that gives a sense of passion and of substantial differences.

People -- most of whom will only start paying attention with the conventions -- want to know what he is for. Not what his policy positions are. But what he will stand and fight for. Where his steel is. And how that relates to the challenges they face. None of this is helped when he retreats on issues like trade or flips as on the wiretap legislation. But none can be determined without drawing a forceful contrast with McCain and taking him on.

McCain, of course, is a perfect setup for contrast, since he's offering mostly more of the same Bush policies that have proved so calamitous -- more top end tax cuts that have generated the slowest growth in sixty years and contributed to Gilded Age inequality, more corporate trade policies that have hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs and left us dependent on the kindness of Chinese central bankers, more billions devoted to the debacle in Iraq, etc. John McCain, same old, same old.

So why hasn't Obama gone after him? Why haven't we seen some populist fire so clearly in order?

Part of this is surely self-restraint. Obama, the essence of post-modern cool, wants to avoid appearing to be "an angry black man." And he clearly sees that as central to what has contributed to his remarkable success.

Part of this, I suspect, is a strategic choice. Obama had the same test in three primaries against Hillary (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana): convince white workers that you understand their plight and that you will fight for them. He failed it in each occasion.

Now this is a brilliant and remarkably talented leader, both thoughtful and skilled rhetorically. He is not a person who flunks tests. So I suspect he chose not to pass them because he had another strategy in mind. Seeking to assemble to a broader suburban, upscale, independent, young, disaffected Republican coalition, he may have decided that a more populist posture would cost him as many votes as it attracted.

If so, this is a mistake. Obama is winning about 75% of self-described Democrats. He's doing fine with women, including former Hillary supporters, contrary to all the posturing. He's got to consolidate older and white working class Democrats. They want to know whether he will stand up for them. And they have good reason to be suspicious. It's not simply race, although that is surely part of it. Obama is the epitome of an urban professional, a man whose success, education and life sets him apart. Ask Al Gore and John Kerry, the resulting cultural suspicion would apply even if he were white.

On the other hand, showing folks that he would fight for them won't alienate the broader, new coalition that he's trying to assemble. Women, the young, independents, older Americans, disaffected Republicans -- all are concerned about the economy, all think we're deeply off course, all are looking for a dramatic change. Putting an edge on the contrast between his policies and McCain's would help, not impede, assembling that coalition.

Moreover, Obama needn't abandon his cool to bring some heat to the campaign. He simply needs to use his rhetorical gifts to sharpen the contrast between McCain's old and failed agenda and his own.

For example, McCain has sought to make trade a centerpiece of his campaign, even stumping in Mexico and Canada in support of NAFTA. Obama should take him up on this -- but he needn't imitate the populism of a Bernie Sanders or Sherrod Brown, as successful as that is, to make his point. McCain is frozen in an old fraudulent debate about free trade against protectionism. Obama should dismiss that as a fool's choice.

The reality is that our corporate trade policies -- of by and for global corporations and banks -- can't be sustained; they are making us increasingly dependent on the kindness of foreign creditors, like the Chinese bankers.

The challenge is a fundamental one to our society -- how do we sustain a broad and prosperous middle class in a global economy? More of the same won't get that done, as the middle class is now sinking -- despite working harder , longer and with greater productivity than workers in every other industrial country.

We need to start with a clear measure The success of this economy is not whether multinationals are profiting. Corporate profits have reached record levels, but wages have stagnated. The success of an Obama economy will be measured by whether working families are prospering, whether wages are rising, jobs are more secure, health care and education is affordable and available.

For this we need a dramatic change in course. Current trade deals are simply an expression of corporate lobbies. So no more -- until we forge a national strategy that works for working people, not just special interests. A centerpiece of this must be an Apollo Plan for energy independence, a concerted drive, creating jobs here by investing in efficiency and renewable energy, while seeding the research to capture the new green markets of the future. We need to reward companies for keeping jobs here rather than shipping them abroad - unlike McCain's profligate tax breaks for corporations which will reward them no matter where their jobs are going. We have to invest in education and training, in infrastructure and research and development so we can sustain a high wage path in a global economy -- unlike McCain's plan to lavish more tax breaks on the wealthy while cutting investments in vital domestic programs. We have to push for new global rules that raise standards for the environment, workers, consumers and small investors. We have to curb the casino financial speculation which is destabilizing the real economy, contrary to the advice of Phil Gramm, McCain's financial guru who is an officer in UBS, a bank now under investigation illegally abetting billionaires seeking to avoid paying US taxes. And we have to challenge the mercantilist nations like China that are playing by a different set of rules, putting companies on notice that that we will pursue more but balanced trade with Beijing. FInally, we have to make certain that workers capture a fair share of the increased productivity that they have produced. That requires empowering workers to organize. And it requires insuring basic economic rights -- starting with affordable health care -- that aren't at risk if you lose your job.

Can we sustain the foundation of our democracy -- a broad and prosperous middle class -- in the new economy? To meet that challenge, we can't keep digging the hole we are in. And it isn't enough just to stop digging -- although that would be a good start. We've got to chart the way out. And on that, McCain does not have a clue.

Now Obama's rhetorical gifts are far greater than mine. He can make this less abstract, develop it with stories about real struggles. But by expanding the trade question into what it is -- the question of a national strategy in a global economy, he can change the terms of the debate on the future prosperity and security of this country in a manner that McCain simply can't answer. He can draw the contrast by raising the stakes -- and summoning people to challenge the entrenched interests that stand in the way.

Krugman says what is missing is passion. Obama isn't about to become a passionate, kick ass populist rabble rouser. That's not what brought him this far. But he can challenge McCain forcefully -- on trade, on growth, on health care, on Social Security and Medicare, on national security -- in a way that grounds his argument in the struggles of working families. He can draw the contrast between his ability to mobilize the energy of people with McCain's ability to collect checks from special interests. He can show some steel, even while retaining his cool.

There are only a few times when campaigns can retool. The leadup to the Democratic Convention, when Obama got off the campaign trail, is one. The week of the Republican convention is another. After that, the race turns into a sprint, so the basic themes, contrasts, attack lines have to be in place. If Obama is going to sharpen this race, now is the time.

Comments

[Bladernr1001]

Mr. Borosage,

You say you want to save the middle class. Do you think a tax reduction would help...along with a reduction in the size and scope of government? The top 1% of wage earners pay 18% of all federal taxes. The top 10% pay 36% of all federal taxes. So the "rich" (assuming they squirred away some of that income-not the case in the majority) are getting soaked pretty good on the federal level.

But, as I know you will agree, that is not the whole story. Look at the average person's TOTAL tax bill. That is look at federal taxes, excise taxes, state taxes, local taxes, sales taxes, vehicle taxes, property taxes....the list goes on and on. The average middle class citizen pays nearly half what he/she earns in some kind of tax. Don't you think that could be having an impact on the sustainability of the middle class?

We pay all these taxes and to be honest don't see much bang for our buck. Out here in CA the school system for example has $11 Billion more dollars to spend on k-12 education than it did just 4 years ago (and less students). Have we seen any significant improvment in the performance of public education?­......simp­le answer, no. But that has not stopped the teachers union from spiking pensions, protesting the slightest decrease to the increase in funding or basing teachers salaries on performance (the way the rest of us get paid).

[Bladernr1001]

The rest of my comment.

When we see the democrats do the right thing rather than kow tow to the powerful public employee unions, the bar associtation (lawyers), back off on the big government mentality.....then you may see your candidates get elected.

[research]

Obama!

Use your great speaking abilities to reach out emotionally!

[Bladernr1001]

LOL....this is what I have been arguing for years! Liberal positions are based on emotions.....not facts and logic.

[research]

He's already proved the logic.

Elections are won with emotion.

[BillZBubb]

As usual, the Democrats are positioning themselves to lose the campaign before it even begins. Obama, like other losing candidates before him, has taken the month of August off. He has given the stage to McCain. McCain has used his advantage well to define Obama in a very unattrative light. While Democrats attempted to mock the Republican's "stupid" and "deceptive" commercials, they were very effectively getting voters where the Republicans always get them--at the emotional, gut level. McCain has gutted Obama, but Democrats don't know it yet.

In four months, those who are honest will look back at Obama's foolish squandering of his momentum in August. He let a guy who has no business even being in the race for the White House take the initiative. And maybe in four years, for a change, Democrats will back a nominee who will truly fight for the presidency.

I admit, I have always held that Obama was the wrong candidate for these times. His style is not what is needed to take the offensive to the Republicans. I also stand by my prediction that Obama will lose a close election to McCain.

Until the Democrats learn how to fight for voters at the gut level, they'll not win the presidency.

[DebbieinPhx]

It is time for the convention. Enter 8 count them EIGHT newly minted and heavily funded DNC friendly 527's. My favorites are still votevets.org and moveon.org. So instead of whining, donate. Now is when things get interesting!!!!

[TonalCrow]

As usual, the Democratic nominee is playing nice, talking policy, and refusing to attack the GOPper's character, while the GOPper is playing dirty, talking trash, and attacking the Democrat's character at every opportunity and without respect for the truth.

Is Obama going to learn that he's got to (truthfully) attack McCain's character, and that he's got to do so strongly, consistently, and without equivocation or apology?

Elections are decided largely on gut-level feelings, not, Not, NOT, *NOT* on policy. Bush I beat Dukakis by smearing his character with Willie Horton. Bush II "beat" Gore by smearing his character as an exaggerator and liar ("invented the internet"). Bush II "beat" Kerry by smearing his character as an exaggerator, liar, and coward (Swiftboaters). You win by making the election a referendum on your opponent's character. That doesn't mean you've got to lie. Goodness knows McCain has enough real character defects (impetuousness, hotheadedness, lack of curiousity, and a tendency to lie and cheat) that we don't need to make up any, even if we were so inclined.

[barriosbabe]

O is missing some great chances to show how money can be MOVED, very specifically, e.g. 15 million can go from rich peoples' tax breaks to supply free diabetic TESTING supplies. Everybody knows somebody with diabetes.

[justobserve]

Obama forgot that voters turned off Hillary because she showed her true character in using dirty tactics against him. He has to make McCain's CHARACTER the central attack. Expose McCain's TRUE CHARACTER is not dirty game. Obama is making a big mistake letting McCain paint him with false character while Obama avoids counter attack McCain with his true character that McCain is trying to cover up. There is plenty to talk about McCain's character. Hit the nail on the head, Obama! You said you don't let McCain to question about you but being defensive is not good enough. If you think McCain is good then that is what voters think too!
COUNTER ATTACK TO EXPOSE THE REAL McCAIN.

[barriosbabe]

Bravo!

"Expose McCain's TRUE CHARACTER is not dirty game. "

Bears repeating.

[mmmd]

It seems to me it's enough to hammer on two points: a) McC's character : God knows there's enough material there b) The failed economy: put the fear of economic depression in people's hearts. Successful Republican tactics show that fear is a very effective emotion.
Also, does O have a blog? If not he should have a blog. His complex, subtle thoughts are very suited for a blog. People will read it and identify with his successes and setbacks. Before they know it, they will be rooting for him. A reality show, y'know, with really high stakes.
For debates, stick to the "rabble-rouser" style. We are a people who wouldn't know nuance if it came and bit us in the butt.

[ProWarDem]

Posters here reccommend that O use tactics like succinctness, getting to the point, and assertiveness. But we have another nominee who already has all those qualities. This will be quite a convention.

[kburlz]

This is why Obama needs to pick Biden. I'll bet anybody he does. He's a verbal sparrer, he can take on Mccain in foriegn policy, he will make the white middle class more comfortable about the ticket. They also need to pound Mccain at every speech during the convention, and don't be shy about questioning Mccain's recent disdain for our military and vets. Obama also needs to get a fighting edge about him in the debates. I think Obama is brilliant, and I have no doubt he's going to figure this thing out.

[barriosbabe]

I love the bagel thing he did - it was all over the stupid MSM news too - very middle class!

[uvymopkq]

Part of the reason that McCain is still in this race is that, to date, Obama has failed to define himself. The Obama campaign has been focused on trying to figure out why he should look like someone on a dollar bill. They try to make us feel comfortable voting for a young African American with a funny name. The question remains basic.....what does he have to offer? Being Mr. FeelGood is not enough.

[TonalCrow]

Obama's put out loads of policy stuff. The public doesn't care about that. They care about "character". And he's let McCain define his "character". That must stop. Obama's got to define McCain, day in and day out, truthfully, but without equivocation and without apology. No more "John McCain's a great war hero, but...." or "John McCain means the best for America, but...." No. It's got to be "I'll show you what John McCain's about: he's about invading Iraq because it feels good to hit someone. He's about 'drill here, drill now" because it sounds good, even though conservation's far more effective. He's about filling the Supreme Court with right-wing tyrants. He's about telling you whatever it takes, even if it's one thing today and the opposite tomorrow."

Obama's got to make this election a referendum on McCain.

[mmmd]

Cool.
How about this for an attack ad? I realize this might backfire, but it makes an important point.
It's 3am and the phone rings in the white house. Camera moves to a large red button with the word "danger" glowing above it. We see a hand moving towards it.
Voice over: Once the red button is pressed-- whatever the consequenc­es---there is no going back.---You cannot turn back the clock.-- You cannot call timeout.---When that 3am call comes would you rather have a president who is capable of weighing the options before pressing the red button? ----Or would you vote for a president who thinks pressing the red button is the only option available? -----Who will make America safer for our children?

[EarthToZoey]

You are absolutely correct especially on these two fronts: The time to retool his communication style is NOW and he needs to keep his calm control while showing strength. He also needs to work on his "wordiness". He needs to be pithy and concise, especially considering the mass media's love of the sound bite.

He does need that rabble-rousing populist message though -- coming primarily from his VP choice. Think: attack dog.

[CactusTom]

I can’t quite figure out Obama’s strategy, and they may be a good thing. Perhaps he is keeping his power dry, waiting for just the right moment to expose McCain’s countless faults. But right now McCain’s simple minded strategy is working well. Hate, not love, is the greatest of unifying forces; and John McCain is effectively working to create fear and hate in the minds of America’s cruder thinkers toward Obama in norder to build support for himself. All I know is that if Joe Biden becomes Obama’s running mate, old Joe will rip McCain’s policies to shears to where John boy won’t know if he is coming or going. This may be Barack’s ace in the hole play. Unfortunately it would be ashamed to waste Joe as VP, when he is perfectly suited to be secretary of state. But first Barack has got to win, and I think Joe can provide the firepower to more than help pull off that trick.

[EarthToZoey]

I think your first two sentences could prove to be true. It is possible that Obama and his campaign are saving "the good stuff" when the electorate is truly paying attention. Saving it up so that the McCain camp is caught off-guard and has less time to strategize. Let us hope that this is the case, because McCain's Rovian message is gaining traction.

[TonalCrow]

I don't think I can trust someone as cocky, flip, and hotheaded as McCain. I don't think he has the character for the job.

[DebbieinPhx]

Really? You don't think..... don't think.... know! Go to youtube, dude. Type in McCain's temper or Angry McCain. There are so many clips of this guy just losin' it. It's unreal!! How this guy is even in the running is beyond me!!!

[TonalCrow]

Exactly. What I wrote (and what you documented) is what we need to spread about McCain. It's all about his character.

[NTO08]

Meanwhile, Obama has lost 25 points among indy voters, and now loses by 5 points among
likely voters:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUKN1948672420080820

The campaign is in freefall.

[blueshield]

Yawn. Wait a week.

[uvymopkq]

Wait a week...it will increase.

[MPCarr]

The Democrats should be worried, REAL worried.

I think Obama should call for numerous town hall meetings with McCain so he can articulate his visions of hope and change. Let the voters get to know him and what he stands for.

[gotborked]

aint gonna happen.

The last thing that will help Obama's campaign is another appearance with McCain.

He will not win the hearts and minds of the American people when they can easily compare Obama's meandering articulations of abstractions with McCain's clear, concise positions.

[DebbieinPhx]

....wait a week. Watch what's coming, Obama is the man with the plan. If you're to trust him to be the leader of the free world, perhaps you should trust that he has a strategy here. (I do .... and he does!)

[krocklin]

The electorate and the Middle Class is too stupid to be persuaded with policy arguments like social security, healthcare, renewable energy, a reduction in the military budget AND agenda and fewer tax breaks for the oil companies and the ultra wealthy.

They need to follow the winning formula of the Republicans, who make attacks on "character" central to their campaign tactics, albeit hypocritically.

So Obama only needs to go after McCain's "character", which should be plenty easy to do.

He is a lame candidate, vulnerable from every angle: personal history, flip flops, inflammatory rhetoric, uncontrollable temper, votes against everything the majority of Americans favor, cruel and crude remarks against women and disparagement of his own wife in front of reporters and at a bikers rally.

How about that picture of Cindy holding up a sign saying "Topless Contest" - that won't appeal to Republican family values anymore than his $520 shoes and 10 expensive homes impress the Middle Class.

[TonalCrow]

Exactly. The public largely votes on "character", not on issues. Obama must concentrate on McCain's flippancy, cockiness, dishonesty, and bad temper. He must make this election a referendum on McCain.

[ruddie]

I somewhat agree..
But it shouldnt be Obama doing it.. where are Obamas friends and surrogates..
or just Democrat swift boaters ? There shouldnt be a day that goes by without
someone on the democrat side taking McCain down.

[barriosbabe]

Good effing question! Where ARE they? Also on vacation?

[booksnmore4you]

Hope for Change is somewhere between thin air and thin ice at this point.

What we need is Smear and Attack with Uber-Rovianism for a Change.

Let the 527s go, while saying you can't control what they do.

[EarthToZoey]

I agree: unleash the 527s.

[DebbieinPhx]

Did someone mention 527's????!!! I am so, so soooooo glad you did.
Speaking of 527's has anybody seen the new MoveOn.org ads? They're really good. Here is a link.
http://www.moveon.org/campaigns.html

Please watch. And if anyone is so inclined, please donate. If we are sick and tired of our presidential elections being hijacked and funded by the GOP/Rovian Hatemongering machine, now is the time....Dems, liberals, independants, and intelligent GOP members, PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS!!!(that includes bloggers, baby!)
PS: Just in case someone has not ever donated to a 527: These donations are seperate from the ones you make to the campaign, so they do not fall under the same donation limits.