Obama: Hope for a Change

Seems like everyone has advice for the Obama campaign. Democrats grouse in the New York Times that he better start putting "meat on the bones" of his hope and change rhetoric. Paul Krugman sensibly calls for some passion on the economy. Even Mark Penn, fresh off his incandescent performance in Hillary Clinton's run, agrees, sort of.

With Democrats racking up double digit leads in party ID, and what Republicans call their "brand" debased, McCain is running basically even with Obama in the polls. No wonder folks are starting to get worried.

This isn't time for hemlock. Imagine if, a year ago, someone had bet you that a black anti-war candidate named Barack Obama, barely three years into national office, would be running neck and neck with John McCain for the presidency. Not many of us would have put our money down. That said, there is significant cause for concern.

Part of the reason that McCain is still in this race is that, to date, the campaign has been almost entirely a referendum on Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has been focused on reassuring people that they should feel comfortable voting for a young African American with a funny name. The McCain campaign, once Rove's minions took over, has been focused on scaring people from voting for what they paint as the inexperienced celebrity with a funny name and a mysterious past. Obama's campaign foolishly discouraged support for independent expenditure committees. No one is really talking about McCain. Obama wins a race that is a choice; he could lose one that's simply a referendum on him.

And this is part of why people think Obama hasn't really said anything beyond "hope and change." In fact, he's put out detailed policy papers on all range of subjects, readily available on his web site. He's devoted many speeches to detailing different policies. But he's done very little clear contrast with McCain -- and it is the contrast -- the contesting of ideas and direction that gives a sense of passion and of substantial differences.

People -- most of whom will only start paying attention with the conventions -- want to know what he is for. Not what his policy positions are. But what he will stand and fight for. Where his steel is. And how that relates to the challenges they face. None of this is helped when he retreats on issues like trade or flips as on the wiretap legislation. But none can be determined without drawing a forceful contrast with McCain and taking him on.

McCain, of course, is a perfect setup for contrast, since he's offering mostly more of the same Bush policies that have proved so calamitous -- more top end tax cuts that have generated the slowest growth in sixty years and contributed to Gilded Age inequality, more corporate trade policies that have hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs and left us dependent on the kindness of Chinese central bankers, more billions devoted to the debacle in Iraq, etc. John McCain, same old, same old.

So why hasn't Obama gone after him? Why haven't we seen some populist fire so clearly in order?

Part of this is surely self-restraint. Obama, the essence of post-modern cool, wants to avoid appearing to be "an angry black man." And he clearly sees that as central to what has contributed to his remarkable success.

Part of this, I suspect, is a strategic choice. Obama had the same test in three primaries against Hillary (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana): convince white workers that you understand their plight and that you will fight for them. He failed it in each occasion.

Now this is a brilliant and remarkably talented leader, both thoughtful and skilled rhetorically. He is not a person who flunks tests. So I suspect he chose not to pass them because he had another strategy in mind. Seeking to assemble to a broader suburban, upscale, independent, young, disaffected Republican coalition, he may have decided that a more populist posture would cost him as many votes as it attracted.

If so, this is a mistake. Obama is winning about 75% of self-described Democrats. He's doing fine with women, including former Hillary supporters, contrary to all the posturing. He's got to consolidate older and white working class Democrats. They want to know whether he will stand up for them. And they have good reason to be suspicious. It's not simply race, although that is surely part of it. Obama is the epitome of an urban professional, a man whose success, education and life sets him apart. Ask Al Gore and John Kerry, the resulting cultural suspicion would apply even if he were white.

On the other hand, showing folks that he would fight for them won't alienate the broader, new coalition that he's trying to assemble. Women, the young, independents, older Americans, disaffected Republicans -- all are concerned about the economy, all think we're deeply off course, all are looking for a dramatic change. Putting an edge on the contrast between his policies and McCain's would help, not impede, assembling that coalition.

Moreover, Obama needn't abandon his cool to bring some heat to the campaign. He simply needs to use his rhetorical gifts to sharpen the contrast between McCain's old and failed agenda and his own.

For example, McCain has sought to make trade a centerpiece of his campaign, even stumping in Mexico and Canada in support of NAFTA. Obama should take him up on this -- but he needn't imitate the populism of a Bernie Sanders or Sherrod Brown, as successful as that is, to make his point. McCain is frozen in an old fraudulent debate about free trade against protectionism. Obama should dismiss that as a fool's choice.

The reality is that our corporate trade policies -- of by and for global corporations and banks -- can't be sustained; they are making us increasingly dependent on the kindness of foreign creditors, like the Chinese bankers.

The challenge is a fundamental one to our society -- how do we sustain a broad and prosperous middle class in a global economy? More of the same won't get that done, as the middle class is now sinking -- despite working harder , longer and with greater productivity than workers in every other industrial country.

We need to start with a clear measure The success of this economy is not whether multinationals are profiting. Corporate profits have reached record levels, but wages have stagnated. The success of an Obama economy will be measured by whether working families are prospering, whether wages are rising, jobs are more secure, health care and education is affordable and available.

For this we need a dramatic change in course. Current trade deals are simply an expression of corporate lobbies. So no more -- until we forge a national strategy that works for working people, not just special interests. A centerpiece of this must be an Apollo Plan for energy independence, a concerted drive, creating jobs here by investing in efficiency and renewable energy, while seeding the research to capture the new green markets of the future. We need to reward companies for keeping jobs here rather than shipping them abroad - unlike McCain's profligate tax breaks for corporations which will reward them no matter where their jobs are going. We have to invest in education and training, in infrastructure and research and development so we can sustain a high wage path in a global economy -- unlike McCain's plan to lavish more tax breaks on the wealthy while cutting investments in vital domestic programs. We have to push for new global rules that raise standards for the environment, workers, consumers and small investors. We have to curb the casino financial speculation which is destabilizing the real economy, contrary to the advice of Phil Gramm, McCain's financial guru who is an officer in UBS, a bank now under investigation illegally abetting billionaires seeking to avoid paying US taxes. And we have to challenge the mercantilist nations like China that are playing by a different set of rules, putting companies on notice that that we will pursue more but balanced trade with Beijing. FInally, we have to make certain that workers capture a fair share of the increased productivity that they have produced. That requires empowering workers to organize. And it requires insuring basic economic rights -- starting with affordable health care -- that aren't at risk if you lose your job.

Can we sustain the foundation of our democracy -- a broad and prosperous middle class -- in the new economy? To meet that challenge, we can't keep digging the hole we are in. And it isn't enough just to stop digging -- although that would be a good start. We've got to chart the way out. And on that, McCain does not have a clue.

Now Obama's rhetorical gifts are far greater than mine. He can make this less abstract, develop it with stories about real struggles. But by expanding the trade question into what it is -- the question of a national strategy in a global economy, he can change the terms of the debate on the future prosperity and security of this country in a manner that McCain simply can't answer. He can draw the contrast by raising the stakes -- and summoning people to challenge the entrenched interests that stand in the way.

Krugman says what is missing is passion. Obama isn't about to become a passionate, kick ass populist rabble rouser. That's not what brought him this far. But he can challenge McCain forcefully -- on trade, on growth, on health care, on Social Security and Medicare, on national security -- in a way that grounds his argument in the struggles of working families. He can draw the contrast between his ability to mobilize the energy of people with McCain's ability to collect checks from special interests. He can show some steel, even while retaining his cool.

There are only a few times when campaigns can retool. The leadup to the Democratic Convention, when Obama got off the campaign trail, is one. The week of the Republican convention is another. After that, the race turns into a sprint, so the basic themes, contrasts, attack lines have to be in place. If Obama is going to sharpen this race, now is the time.

Comments

[JCProduces]

As much as I like the cool laid back Obama, I think he needs to snap on John McCain and get negative back. Talk about his puffy cheeks, living off of his rich wife, not being able to raise his arms and the overused term"my friends". Obama has plenty of ammunition, I can only hope he is saving it for when he needs it the most.

[Trollstakeyourmeds]

Yeah, sure...great idea. Make fun of a man's physical problems that he has as a result of five years in a P.O.W. camp being tortured by the V.C. See how far THAT one would get you.

[valleygent]

Obama simply must fight in this campaign, he comes across as soft and intellectual, that may be ok for governing, but it won't win him a nation wide election. What's it going to take for Obama to take off the gloves? His VP choice is going to be a big deciding factor because many feel that he needs someone to fight for him. Meanwhile the Republicans pummel him daily. OBAMA RECEIVES NO HELP FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY STRUCTURE EITHER...SOUNDS LIKE A 2004 REPEAT IF SOMETHING DRAMATIC DOES NOT TAKE PLACE IN THE OVERALL STRATEGY.

[BaltimoreSteve]

Obama needs only to show some passion and greater conviciton in his positions and answers to questions. As a progressive Dem, I love the detailed, logical, and nuanced answers he provides, but most of the remaining undecided want their leader to give simple "punchline" answers. I hate to say it, but it is style over substance that is required.

[CTG]

Funny, I was there at the Town Hall meeting in Raleigh last night and Obama was passionate, forceful, took the econimic argument straight to McCain, and put the emphasis clearly on standing for the 98% of Americans who feel their prosperity slipping away. The message is right where it needs to be.

But we are getting the message now through the MSM filter - the ones who are reinforcing the aloof, eletist model the Repubs are trying to paint on Obama. Don't be fooled! When the convention coverage starts, the filters will be cut back and the message will get through. Obama will hammer McCain on the economy - and McC gave the gift of the $5 million definition of rich!

[4AmericaTheBeautiful]

CTG, here's what the Obama campaign doesn't get: in order to change the narrative, sometimes you have to do something drastic. They need to come out with some advertisements that the weak-kneed talking heads will whine about and say, "oh, we thought he was about new politics." I am NOT advocating him being dishonest or smearing McCain. I AM saying that he'd better do something to shake things up. Being tough on the stump is a GOOD start. It's not enough.

[scooperss]

obama better stop listening to those in his campaign who are telling him to change hsi views to win votes.

Instead of looking like a contrast to mccain he's starting to look like a blurry vision of a repub.

[ReadyNow]

Too bad this also happens to be true....

"what they paint as the inexperienced celebrity with a funny name and a mysterious past."

He is inexperienced, he is a celebrity and he does have a mysterious past.

Whats with hanging out with all these commies in Hawaii? Said the skeptical public while still clutching the "football" with the launch codes....Can we trust you with these?

That is the question that will decide the election.....Anyone with the inclination to visit his website is already voting for him..

[RantingTommy]

PUMAs are so funny. It's like watching the 'we want republicans to win, even if they are Clintons' show

[Trollstakeyourmeds]

What does this thread possibly have to do with Pumas? Where the hell did that come from?

[BlueInARedState]

Commies in Hawaii? Are you on drugs?

[nellie]

Another article that has completely lost sight of the big picture.

Pundits need a new frame. This depressed Obama whining is not helping.

[beauwin]

Yeah more rhetoric is just what we need Robert. More speechies with no substance!!! An empty suit is an empty suit and that suit fits Obama to a T!!!

[RedStateCenterLeft]

Obama better get it together and FAST! Otherwise, it'll be as over as Dukakis was.

The man needs ads that will hit McCain hard. He needs to show that picture of the airplane belly full of coffins coming back from Iraq. He needs to show the Ferragamo lifestyle and repeat the "$5 million is middle class" statement.

You wanna play rough, pal, let's show 'em rough.

This country is messed up and McCain knows it. Why? Because he voted in favor of it!!!!

Oh, BTW, wrap yourself in the flag next Thursday in Denver, Barack. Oh, and pray to Jesus, too. Then you can shut up these asinine pundits. Hire in Michael Phelps and all those gold medals if you can. Symbols matter to the self-involved masses.

Better yet, have an old Yippie run up the stage immolating the flag and you can smother the flames with your body.

This country is getting ridiculous.

[ReadyNow]

Here is the big difference....

The right wing things the left is well intentioned but wrong...

The left thinks the right is evil and wrong....

The average Joe doesn't think their govt is evil and is turned off by this Bush is a Murderer line...They think the govt may be incompentent and crooked but not evil...

[Balloonman]

EVIL: Wicked. Lawless. Mean. Nefarious. Shameful. Ugly. Harmful. Ominous. Sinister. Bad. Cruel. Guilty. Unchristian. Vicious. Villainous.

The left wing--of which I admit cause but don't necessarily represent and cannot speak for since each member grades their outrage and disgust at the right wing according to personality and perspectiv­e--likely, guaranteed, views the right wing as opposite the left wing. If the left wing is fundementally more to do with ALL peoples rights opposed narrow interests, separation church and state, corporate interests after peoples, government for the people and by the people etcetera, justice for all in otherwords, fair dealings--­negotiaton­s, treaties-- for/with everyone, then accordingly the LEFT WING is friendlier to EVIL's antonym VIRTUE (Goodness, fairness, idealism) and thus yes, the RIGHT WING is evil.

[valleygent]

THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING THAT IS REPEATED OFTEN ENOUGH AND WITH A SINGULAR VOICE...LIKE A DRUM BEAT. The Democrats simply don't know how to wage political warfare, and Obama is running as Mr. Intellectual. That is great for governing ultimately, but he must be perceived as a fighter to win. Nancy Pelosi is poison for the Dems, with all her hands off strategy she has given W and McCain their "Victory" in Iraq. Equivication on drilling was a mistake.Time to pound the message home that McCain is from the Party that brought us to where we are now...economic depression. Easy to do if you have a pair . Perhaps Howard Dean and the Dems can call on Hollywood friends to formulate the media message of doom. Otherwise welcome to 8 more years of Repubs. Perhaps Howard Dean and the Dems can do something.­..anything­???

[ladyv]

Look.

The entire point of these attacks is to reduce enthusiasm and interest in the political process. Participation is death to Republicans. They need a numb, disengaged electorate.

Stop giving in to this. They're trying to breed this feeling of hopelessness. They've been doing it for months and months. One two hour broadcast that aired on a Saturday night opposite Michael Phelps pwning everybody that hardly anyone even saw in which Obama presented himself perfectly well in front of a crowd of people who would likely cross to the other side of the street to avoid walking past him and would never under any circumstances vote for him is not cause for all this fretting and wailing.

Yes, of course McCain probably got fed about half of Obama's questions. Of course he responded in one liners that generated applause. He could've devolved into his usual confused blinking babble and gotten the exact same response. Evangelicals make up a tiny portion of the population, and the only thing Obama has to do is avoid being excitingly hated by them. Lord knows McCain isn't going to drive them to the polls.

YOU MUST CHILL. OBAMA HAS YOUR KEYS. YOU MUST CHILL.

[nellie]

"Stop giving in to this. They're trying to breed this feeling of hopelessness. "

Smartest thing I've read on this board all year.

[ReadyNow]

Never to early to start planning for 2012

Hillary 12

[petey64]

well all you have to do is look at the numbers from 2004 America had the most voters ever for a presidential election and Kerry got beaten like a drum, you need to re-think your participation thought line becase it is just plain wrong.

[robbep]

Obama has yet to convince me that he stands for anything except being elected. His fisa vote was a missed opportunity to rally and intensify his base. If he and McCain has differences it is getting harder to distinguish what they are. He needs to bring up subjects like fmla and getting americans back to work. Getting tangled into discussions about abortion shld be a non starter, these arguements are trotted out every 4 years by the republicans only for election fodder they dont intend on changing the law. Health care, fmla, rebuilding infrastructure and creating jobs, strengthing social security, and educating our children, these are issues that we hear nothing about. The next time mccain brings up his patriotism blast his record clearly on how he sells out vets and then discuss issues that get us back to work.

[muffler]

Vote McCain and pay the price. The devil you know is much worse than the one you don't

[MaryanneAZ]

Wa-wa-wa!!! Your post and so many others are prime examples of why Dems do not win elections. We have not learned from the winning Republicans that it is NEVER a good idea to dis your own candidate and campaign. McCain could literally shoot his own mother on primetime TV and HIS supporters, campaign and surrogates would literally continue to smile into the camera, recite the talking points, bash Obama, and completely dodge the question asked by the media person. THAT is how you win an election, My Friends!!! We also have a stunning lack of surrogates out there assisting our candidate. All that said, there is no there there. Obama is a tremendously smart player and he has a strategy to win this election. He is also a Chicago politician and there is a lot of street fighting to come. He just has to be careful how he comes across with the "burden" of daring to run for office while Black. We whine too much and do too little as supporters or Dems. If you want a way to help our candidate: donate, canvass, phone bank, write to the editor, register voters, etc. There is so much WE can do to bring home a victory for US in November. Obama '08

[valleygent]

It is August already, don't you see how things are shaping up? Next month Bush will roll out the Victory parade for Iraq and watch the Dem tent fold. Pelosi has given him a final burst of power because impeachment is off the table. Obama needs to take the upper hand NOW. Health care and lowering taxes for the middle class far more than $1000 should be coming out of Obama's mouth at every turn...and his surrogates need to get it together and join in UNISON.

[jwws007]

right now, the biggest problem with Obama's campaign is it's difficult to see where he stands on anything (McCain is no better)

[muffler]

We know where McSame stands. Why is this even a discussion. Vote Obama. The worst is you get more of the same, but I think it will be better.

[blueshield]

It's essential that Sen Obama start campaigning like the country is on fire. It is.

The fight and passion the "undecideds" want to see is not O defending himself, but defending America. Hope and change have currency only if one accepts that there is danger in doing things the same way.

The Repubs are successfully pretending America is sound and happy and winning, and all we need are a few tweaks, tax cuts and some offshore drilling and everyone will be as rich as Mc.Cain. Find bin Laden? Have him before breakfast. And we'll get rid of those loopy folks who study bears and take vacations in Hawaii.

This is the primary reason the polls are close - and accurately so, based on the people I talk to every day.

There is real concern that the Dem campaign IS more concerned with strategy and winning than the urgent crises facing the country. How can you tell the difference? When "a dignified campaign" becomes more important than holding lies and liars to account. The former is concerned with how the candidate appears; the latter with how the nation will face its responsibilities.

I don't believe there is any gain waiting til after the convention to attack the fire licking at our Constitution, liberties, economy and honor, in a world where some will greatly profit from the nation's disaster.

[ReadyNow]

You are drinking your own bathwater..

The country was on fire in the great depression

The country was on fire in WWII

We are not on fire now....despite what the NY Times says.. Everyone yells "fire" Joe sixpack looks around......he don't see no fire.....

[muffler]

It's on fire, you just don't get the information.

[blueshield]

You need to get out more. The national debt, and loans from China and oil producing countries, place the US at a disadvantage internationally, and will without fail require new and higher taxes to pay down. The prime cause of this is the debacle in Iraq, which has accomplished nothing of value for this country. The US Engineering professionals and our Govt estimate that we must now invest $23 trillion dollars to repair and upgrade our water infrastructure alone in the next 15 years - work put off and unpaid because of the above waste. There are equal problems with roads and bridges, health care and entitlement programs, and so on. The Republican led congress and WH have failed for six years to create an energy policy that reduces our dependence on oil, while putting us directly in conflict with Russia, the worlds second largest oil producer, the largest producer of natural gas, and holding two of three pipelines to supply Europe.

I could go on and on with facts, but you're clearly happy have your pocket emptied and America dishonored. Not me.

[4AmericaTheBeautiful]

Hah, hah, ReadyNow is one of John McCain's "middle income" Americans. Everything's great with McBush's "middle income" Americans, don't you know.

[flyers]

Obama isn't the change candidate alot of people think he will be. It is so hard now to find a politican that can bring real change to Washington, and honestly I think a credible third party candidate is the only one that can do it. Obama and McCain aren't going to bring real change to Washington that can shake things up, they are too tied to their parties, and will cater to their bases too much because of special interests.

A good Third Party Candidate, and I don't mean crazies like Jesse Ventura and Ross Perot, can go into Washington with zero worry about catering to their base, and they can just govern on their own views and not worry about facing a primary challenge 4 years later. We need major reforms on Social Security, Medicare, Cuts in Pork Spending, Term Limits, Balance Budget Amendment, and Tax Reform to make it easier for the Joe Average to do his taxes every year. We need someone who can go into Washington and turn it upside down and scare every Senator/Congressman who has a safe seat in Congress. Obama and McCain will be more of the same old, same old, only with a different party label. When will people learn that these Senators/C­ongressman are in this for one reason: Getting re-elected. I don't know how anyone can think Obama will bring real change, same with McCain, I call this another status-quo election.

[democritus]

Obama is triangulating himself into vapor. McCain is coming across as a feisty fighter. Obama as a vapid neophyte with no convictions. I hate to tell you this, but Americans vote on character and impressions, not on some point on page ninety of a position paper. This election may be over. He could still come back, but this is reminding me of Kerry being unable to muster the character to respond in a forceful and direct way to the Swiftboat attacks. I hope I'm wrong, but this is the risk.