Obama: Hope for a Change
Seems like everyone has advice for the Obama campaign. Democrats grouse in the New York Times that he better start putting "meat on the bones" of his hope and change rhetoric. Paul Krugman sensibly calls for some passion on the economy. Even Mark Penn, fresh off his incandescent performance in Hillary Clinton's run, agrees, sort of.
With Democrats racking up double digit leads in party ID, and what Republicans call their "brand" debased, McCain is running basically even with Obama in the polls. No wonder folks are starting to get worried.
This isn't time for hemlock. Imagine if, a year ago, someone had bet you that a black anti-war candidate named Barack Obama, barely three years into national office, would be running neck and neck with John McCain for the presidency. Not many of us would have put our money down. That said, there is significant cause for concern.
Part of the reason that McCain is still in this race is that, to date, the campaign has been almost entirely a referendum on Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has been focused on reassuring people that they should feel comfortable voting for a young African American with a funny name. The McCain campaign, once Rove's minions took over, has been focused on scaring people from voting for what they paint as the inexperienced celebrity with a funny name and a mysterious past. Obama's campaign foolishly discouraged support for independent expenditure committees. No one is really talking about McCain. Obama wins a race that is a choice; he could lose one that's simply a referendum on him.
And this is part of why people think Obama hasn't really said anything beyond "hope and change." In fact, he's put out detailed policy papers on all range of subjects, readily available on his web site. He's devoted many speeches to detailing different policies. But he's done very little clear contrast with McCain -- and it is the contrast -- the contesting of ideas and direction that gives a sense of passion and of substantial differences.
People -- most of whom will only start paying attention with the conventions -- want to know what he is for. Not what his policy positions are. But what he will stand and fight for. Where his steel is. And how that relates to the challenges they face. None of this is helped when he retreats on issues like trade or flips as on the wiretap legislation. But none can be determined without drawing a forceful contrast with McCain and taking him on.
McCain, of course, is a perfect setup for contrast, since he's offering mostly more of the same Bush policies that have proved so calamitous -- more top end tax cuts that have generated the slowest growth in sixty years and contributed to Gilded Age inequality, more corporate trade policies that have hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs and left us dependent on the kindness of Chinese central bankers, more billions devoted to the debacle in Iraq, etc. John McCain, same old, same old.
So why hasn't Obama gone after him? Why haven't we seen some populist fire so clearly in order?
Part of this is surely self-restraint. Obama, the essence of post-modern cool, wants to avoid appearing to be "an angry black man." And he clearly sees that as central to what has contributed to his remarkable success.
Part of this, I suspect, is a strategic choice. Obama had the same test in three primaries against Hillary (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana): convince white workers that you understand their plight and that you will fight for them. He failed it in each occasion.
Now this is a brilliant and remarkably talented leader, both thoughtful and skilled rhetorically. He is not a person who flunks tests. So I suspect he chose not to pass them because he had another strategy in mind. Seeking to assemble to a broader suburban, upscale, independent, young, disaffected Republican coalition, he may have decided that a more populist posture would cost him as many votes as it attracted.
If so, this is a mistake. Obama is winning about 75% of self-described Democrats. He's doing fine with women, including former Hillary supporters, contrary to all the posturing. He's got to consolidate older and white working class Democrats. They want to know whether he will stand up for them. And they have good reason to be suspicious. It's not simply race, although that is surely part of it. Obama is the epitome of an urban professional, a man whose success, education and life sets him apart. Ask Al Gore and John Kerry, the resulting cultural suspicion would apply even if he were white.
On the other hand, showing folks that he would fight for them won't alienate the broader, new coalition that he's trying to assemble. Women, the young, independents, older Americans, disaffected Republicans -- all are concerned about the economy, all think we're deeply off course, all are looking for a dramatic change. Putting an edge on the contrast between his policies and McCain's would help, not impede, assembling that coalition.
Moreover, Obama needn't abandon his cool to bring some heat to the campaign. He simply needs to use his rhetorical gifts to sharpen the contrast between McCain's old and failed agenda and his own.
For example, McCain has sought to make trade a centerpiece of his campaign, even stumping in Mexico and Canada in support of NAFTA. Obama should take him up on this -- but he needn't imitate the populism of a Bernie Sanders or Sherrod Brown, as successful as that is, to make his point. McCain is frozen in an old fraudulent debate about free trade against protectionism. Obama should dismiss that as a fool's choice.
The reality is that our corporate trade policies -- of by and for global corporations and banks -- can't be sustained; they are making us increasingly dependent on the kindness of foreign creditors, like the Chinese bankers.
The challenge is a fundamental one to our society -- how do we sustain a broad and prosperous middle class in a global economy? More of the same won't get that done, as the middle class is now sinking -- despite working harder , longer and with greater productivity than workers in every other industrial country.
We need to start with a clear measure The success of this economy is not whether multinationals are profiting. Corporate profits have reached record levels, but wages have stagnated. The success of an Obama economy will be measured by whether working families are prospering, whether wages are rising, jobs are more secure, health care and education is affordable and available.
For this we need a dramatic change in course. Current trade deals are simply an expression of corporate lobbies. So no more -- until we forge a national strategy that works for working people, not just special interests. A centerpiece of this must be an Apollo Plan for energy independence, a concerted drive, creating jobs here by investing in efficiency and renewable energy, while seeding the research to capture the new green markets of the future. We need to reward companies for keeping jobs here rather than shipping them abroad - unlike McCain's profligate tax breaks for corporations which will reward them no matter where their jobs are going. We have to invest in education and training, in infrastructure and research and development so we can sustain a high wage path in a global economy -- unlike McCain's plan to lavish more tax breaks on the wealthy while cutting investments in vital domestic programs. We have to push for new global rules that raise standards for the environment, workers, consumers and small investors. We have to curb the casino financial speculation which is destabilizing the real economy, contrary to the advice of Phil Gramm, McCain's financial guru who is an officer in UBS, a bank now under investigation illegally abetting billionaires seeking to avoid paying US taxes. And we have to challenge the mercantilist nations like China that are playing by a different set of rules, putting companies on notice that that we will pursue more but balanced trade with Beijing. FInally, we have to make certain that workers capture a fair share of the increased productivity that they have produced. That requires empowering workers to organize. And it requires insuring basic economic rights -- starting with affordable health care -- that aren't at risk if you lose your job.
Can we sustain the foundation of our democracy -- a broad and prosperous middle class -- in the new economy? To meet that challenge, we can't keep digging the hole we are in. And it isn't enough just to stop digging -- although that would be a good start. We've got to chart the way out. And on that, McCain does not have a clue.
Now Obama's rhetorical gifts are far greater than mine. He can make this less abstract, develop it with stories about real struggles. But by expanding the trade question into what it is -- the question of a national strategy in a global economy, he can change the terms of the debate on the future prosperity and security of this country in a manner that McCain simply can't answer. He can draw the contrast by raising the stakes -- and summoning people to challenge the entrenched interests that stand in the way.
Krugman says what is missing is passion. Obama isn't about to become a passionate, kick ass populist rabble rouser. That's not what brought him this far. But he can challenge McCain forcefully -- on trade, on growth, on health care, on Social Security and Medicare, on national security -- in a way that grounds his argument in the struggles of working families. He can draw the contrast between his ability to mobilize the energy of people with McCain's ability to collect checks from special interests. He can show some steel, even while retaining his cool.
There are only a few times when campaigns can retool. The leadup to the Democratic Convention, when Obama got off the campaign trail, is one. The week of the Republican convention is another. After that, the race turns into a sprint, so the basic themes, contrasts, attack lines have to be in place. If Obama is going to sharpen this race, now is the time.
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McCain has far less support than these rigged polls are suggesting. It's necessary to have some close polls in the mix so that when they rig the computers on Election Day, it won't be obvious as Max Cleland's loss in Georgia.
Mark my words, it makes no difference at all what Obama or McCain do between now and the election. The fix is in.
Obama supporters! You now have my permission to go into full scale panic mode:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true
John McCain
MAC IS BACK!
Check out this pre-release book from Random House....
"I told you so" - fumbling on the 5 yard line. How the democrats lost the 2008 election"
When will the dems learn that the process that nominates its presidential contenders is wildly unsuited to nominating someone who will actually win. If Joe Biden or Chris Dodd was nominated, or even Hill, we wouldn't be in this situation..
What happened to Building 7?
The one thing I like about Daily Kos is they ban anyone who mentions building 7
Nonsense, you are thinking ancient 20th century mode. Today's media driven Menu politics has this country right where the powerful want the public...divided and loving it. This election will be as close as can be and could go either way depending on what time of day. The American people do not intellectualize anything they react. The American people don't want the truth they want candy. The American electorate is as gulliable as can be imagined. 8 years of GW Bush has proven that.
How can anyone believe these polls are legit?
I have been watching how they work these polls since 2000.
Tthe Bush gang invest mega money in their
polling gig but say they pay no mind to the polls. What they do is stack the polls kinda like the same way they stack the voting machines in their favor.
Check the facts people, it’s as predictable as clockwork. About 3 months before the election they start stacking .But they only push it so far as to run equal with the other candidate sometimes just little bit over for good measure, It's suppossed to look believable.
ln 2004 Bush was polling at 28 approval .CNN did a poll at that 3 month mark and I followed this one all the way and made copies of it . Bush ended at a low 24 or 28 but CNN announces that he’s at an 80% approval.
They did this with the Bush right to wage war in 2002 and someone besides myself caught onto it and found the dump was coming from Langley Virginia.
Currently the facts do not support John McCain running even with Obama. The contributions, the crowds do not even come close to matching Obama.
What is in fact happening here is a set-up for another one of their phony elections with those voting machines which as they say “do not work with our exit polls” Oh well that makes sense doesn’t it?
If you believe so strongly that the polls are rigged, take out a full page ad in the New York Times complaining about the poll, as MoveonPAC did in 2004.
Well said Mr. Borosage. I think Obama has chosen to wait for the end of the convention to really show Americans the significant contrast between himself and McCain. The sad fact is many are only starting to pay any kind of attention. I think he realizes that it will be much easier for people to see the choice between a new direction and the same failed policies of Bush et al.
Obama made an excellent point in one of his speeches that the Republicans are very good at negative campaigning but are not very good at governing. That is the plain truth.
That should be the core of his campaign message.
He should ask Americans whether they would have people who are very good at swiftboating but have no clue when it comes to governance. Bush is the perfect specimen and McCain will be worse.
The Obama camp should use the Republican's strength of negative campaigning against them and save the country from four more years of calamity.
If you ask me I would pick Bush anytime rather than McCain. For all his mistakes Bush has some humanity in him and can be quite likable as a person.
McCain is so scary because he sees everything in war colored glasses.
Excellent response, I sooo agree with you.
Obama claims he is offering something new...the truth is something else.
In order for Obama - or any politician - to adequately present ideas that would truly benefit the middle class of Americans, he first has to believe in those ideas himself. And, as they say, therein hangs a tale. Because any notion that he will serve any master but the corporatocracy has all but dissipated already. Just look at his cadre of economic advisors; they include all the Clinton advisors who basically got us into this mess to begin with. Bottom line: it's just not going to play in Peoria this time around. Senator Obama, for all his education and smarts, needs a good refresher course in spelling. The word "change" is not spelled "status-quo." Maybe in the pretend world of campaigning; but not in the real world.
Once Barry puts "meat on the bones" of his hope and change rhetoric his Marxist beliefs will become evident. Great nations do not change, they evolve on knowledge, discipline, leadership and a moral compass, four categories that for the last four decades have become orphans in American culture.
Barack Obama took a week off during the toughest period of the general so far, a period in which he has been loosing 2-3 points a day. None of this should be surprising and I think it will prove to be a fatal error for his campaign. There is no way that this race should even be close and the republican tricks have just begun.
You make a good point...Gallup has had Mack consistently ahead since the conventions were decided...:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx
Obama should be winning by 15 or more points...he's not, and there is the big problem.
You see, now i could not disagree with you more. Obama desperately needs to bring heat to the campaign. He desperately needs to start looking presidential. Are you watching the start of Russia's plans in the news? Have you been reading the news coming out of Afghanistan and Pakistan? Israel and the oil twins are still getting ready to bomb Iran and hand yet another war front to the next president. IT IS ABSOLUTELY A TIME TO TURN UP THE HEAT. Not with the image of an angry black man, but the image of a president, something Obama has yet to show us. There still seems to be nothing concrete about him or his persona, other than the fact that he loves ambition, speech giving, and himself.
...with an emphasis on loving himself...just watch some footage of him and it becomes crystal clear...in a narcissistic culture, many, like those on here, are completely blind to it.
Barry Obama is going down in flames. Mark my words, the guy is an empty suit.. If anything Mccain has been very reserved, and has held back. If Carl rove was involved Barry would need a good surgeon by now. Mccain has been to much of a gentleman to put Obama away. But the momentum clearly shows which way things will go. Face it, you libs have a smoothtalking, handsome candidate. That is a complete summary of his so called qualifications. He is as liberal as any candidate in the post WWII era and you might have a lot of folks who call themselves democrats these days, but far fewer would accept the 'liberal.' And, after a few more debates everyone will see that your man is shallow and off the left end of the spectrum
sorry dems
"Mark my words, the guy is an empty suit."
You base this one what, exactly? Did you even read the article? His policies are solid, jut undersold.
There is much to verify this obvious and readily seen matter to anyone who does not have their head in the sand...
Going on the offensive might be necessary, however I think Obama losses ground when responding to McCain attacks. You are giving your attacker both the initiative and allowing them to frame the debate. Responding to a ridiculous assertion simply lends credibility to the accusation.
I think Obama needs to go on the OFFENSE, not by responding to McCain's insinuations, but ATTACKING McCain on Phil Gramm, lobbyist ties, voting record, abortion, etc.
Mack has been framing to debate...it is NEVER good for a candidate to be RESPONDING to attacks and not initiating them.
Offense wins, defense looses. McSame has done so well in August because he has seized the initiative. Obama needs to seize the initiative while also being very disciplined on message.
The message needs to be repeated again and again in digestible sound bites until it finally sinks in. The general campaign is not a time for nuance, it's a time to drive home simple messages.
Main themes:
1. John McCain can not be trusted to keep his cool in international affairs. He's get us in another war. He'll stretch the military beyond the breaking point and will need to reinstate the draft. McCain's cowboy foreign policy will eat up billion and billions of dollars that should be spent at home.
2. John McCain flip flops, and is often confused and muddled. Do we want to have him in the most powerful job in the world when you don't know from day to day what you're going to get and whether he's going to be clear headed?
Time to stop griping and whining and get busy.
"Obama is winning about 75% of self-described Democrats. He's doing fine with women, including former Hillary supporters, contrary to all the posturing. He's got to consolidate older and white working class Democrats."
With all the supposed support from this large number of democrats ~ how do the polls reflect an honest level of honesty? If 75% of the Democrats support Obama, he should be miles ahead of McCain in the polls! Something is very fishy about these polls? The Republicans are few in number, have had a very bad run under Bush and have no appeal to the young! Who supports McCain ~ rednecks!
Nothing is fishy...it is just that Obama's fans have this false notion of certainty which has been the downfall of Dems many times before.
NTO08 and other haters, there is a flaw in the polls. The pollsters do not contact people who do not have land lines, for one thing. Shouldn't McCain be ahead so far that we are seeing only the dust that he leaves behind? The polls are working both ways.
More people identify themselves as Dem than Rep to pollsters, Dems around 40%, Reps around 31%. These numbers are fluid, but McCain is doing better among Reps (low-mid 80%) than Obama is doing among Dems (mid 70%). McCain gets around 15% of Dem votes, while Obama gets around 10% of Rep votes. Obama generally wins the Ind/Other/None category, but it's been as close as two points in some polls.
I leave those numbers in ranges because the situation is fluid and polls differ, but I think the message is that a three or so point lead for Obama is about right when you consider that McCain is doing better among Reps than Obama is doing among Dems and that McCain gets around 15% of those who describe themselves as Dems. In 2004, Exit Polls showed that 37% of the Electorate described themselves as Dem and 37% as Rep. The CW is that Dems will do better this time, but that doesn't change the fact that McCain is offsetting the registration advantage by doing better with his own party and also getting into double digits among Dems.
I'm not defending those numbers, that's just what they say.
Robert wrote:
"McCain, of course, is a perfect setup for contrast...."
The problem is, that trying to be different than McCain is like trying to squeeze jello. McCain changes positions so much he can (and does) say he IS for something (or against) in any conversation and be truthful in that at one point in his life he was (or wasn't) for it. Slimy befuddlement.
Another hurdle:
McCain's commercials show Windfarms. Obama is for them and McCain has voted against renewable energy a dozen times. How do you set up contrast when you opponent falsely says he is for he same thing you are?
Random thoughts:
I like the nonsensical "We are winning in Iraq, we have won, we will win". He covers all bases and is always "right". Then he lies or forgets what he has said, Like he did when in debate Tim Russert asked him about the his "I don't know anything about the economy" quote. Tim got him later on Meet the Press but to a much smaller audience.
'McCain changes positions so much he can (and does) say he IS for something (or against) in any conversation and be truthful in that at one point in his life he was (or wasn't) for it. Slimy befuddlement."
That's where the Dems should go Daily Show on his butt.
I was a lifelong Republican who switched my party ID to Independent 2 years ago because I was so disgusted with the travesty that has been the past 8 years. Those of you who keep saying, "Obama just needs to stay cool and stick to his "new politics" guns" are going to be in for a very rude awakening the day after the election. Here's the reality folks: there's a large enough portion of the population in America that apparently still gets fooled by the distortions and slander tactics of Karl Rove and Steve Schmidt that Barack Obama will lose this election if he doesn't start swinging back and swing back hard. It'd be WONDERFUL if the best arguments presented in an honest and civil fasion always carried the day. For those who have watched the past 8 years and still think it's about the best arguments, wake up. I've contributed over $1,000 to Obama but will not waste another dime on him unless and until he shows some backbone. America will NOT elect somebody they perceive as being weak. And the only thing that matters is the perception.
Agreed.
Obama, you need to reach out to the low information voters with Emotion, with your great speeches! You stopped giving them towards the end of the primary.
I hope the Convention will be the restart of those great speeches.
The "low information voter" as you perjoratively call them do not care to hear speeches and focus group tested emotion. They want someone who will do what he says, and doesn't take forever to respond to a question with ridiculously nuanced, lawyerly answers...Americans don't care to hearr elaborate explanations.
I think folks need to ease up off the armchair quarterbacking a bit and let Barack Obama run his campaign. I think some folks have some interesting insights but quite frankly a lot of the "obama needs to do this and do that" is starting to sound very condescending, that is, "everyone" has "advice" for the brother on how he ought to do his job.
It simply does not make sense for Obama to come out blasting McCain until he's got the convention behind him. What he has to do is just hold the slight edge - if he tries to run up the score too early, the media most certainly will burn him for not giving them the horse race they need for their ad revenues. Also, it's far more difficult to maintain a big margin for a long period time, so running up the big margin closer to the voting period is prefereable. Team Obama is laying the groundwork right now to run a successful campaign in the upcoming months. I'd say to everyone, if you can, pitch in NOW - help with voter registration drives, build up voter databases, etc. And after Labor Day we can take a look and see how the Obama campaign progresses and THEN revisit what advice the campaign needs to follow. Fair enough?
fair enough, you're right
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