Obama: Hope for a Change
Seems like everyone has advice for the Obama campaign. Democrats grouse in the New York Times that he better start putting "meat on the bones" of his hope and change rhetoric. Paul Krugman sensibly calls for some passion on the economy. Even Mark Penn, fresh off his incandescent performance in Hillary Clinton's run, agrees, sort of.
With Democrats racking up double digit leads in party ID, and what Republicans call their "brand" debased, McCain is running basically even with Obama in the polls. No wonder folks are starting to get worried.
This isn't time for hemlock. Imagine if, a year ago, someone had bet you that a black anti-war candidate named Barack Obama, barely three years into national office, would be running neck and neck with John McCain for the presidency. Not many of us would have put our money down. That said, there is significant cause for concern.
Part of the reason that McCain is still in this race is that, to date, the campaign has been almost entirely a referendum on Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has been focused on reassuring people that they should feel comfortable voting for a young African American with a funny name. The McCain campaign, once Rove's minions took over, has been focused on scaring people from voting for what they paint as the inexperienced celebrity with a funny name and a mysterious past. Obama's campaign foolishly discouraged support for independent expenditure committees. No one is really talking about McCain. Obama wins a race that is a choice; he could lose one that's simply a referendum on him.
And this is part of why people think Obama hasn't really said anything beyond "hope and change." In fact, he's put out detailed policy papers on all range of subjects, readily available on his web site. He's devoted many speeches to detailing different policies. But he's done very little clear contrast with McCain -- and it is the contrast -- the contesting of ideas and direction that gives a sense of passion and of substantial differences.
People -- most of whom will only start paying attention with the conventions -- want to know what he is for. Not what his policy positions are. But what he will stand and fight for. Where his steel is. And how that relates to the challenges they face. None of this is helped when he retreats on issues like trade or flips as on the wiretap legislation. But none can be determined without drawing a forceful contrast with McCain and taking him on.
McCain, of course, is a perfect setup for contrast, since he's offering mostly more of the same Bush policies that have proved so calamitous -- more top end tax cuts that have generated the slowest growth in sixty years and contributed to Gilded Age inequality, more corporate trade policies that have hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs and left us dependent on the kindness of Chinese central bankers, more billions devoted to the debacle in Iraq, etc. John McCain, same old, same old.
So why hasn't Obama gone after him? Why haven't we seen some populist fire so clearly in order?
Part of this is surely self-restraint. Obama, the essence of post-modern cool, wants to avoid appearing to be "an angry black man." And he clearly sees that as central to what has contributed to his remarkable success.
Part of this, I suspect, is a strategic choice. Obama had the same test in three primaries against Hillary (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana): convince white workers that you understand their plight and that you will fight for them. He failed it in each occasion.
Now this is a brilliant and remarkably talented leader, both thoughtful and skilled rhetorically. He is not a person who flunks tests. So I suspect he chose not to pass them because he had another strategy in mind. Seeking to assemble to a broader suburban, upscale, independent, young, disaffected Republican coalition, he may have decided that a more populist posture would cost him as many votes as it attracted.
If so, this is a mistake. Obama is winning about 75% of self-described Democrats. He's doing fine with women, including former Hillary supporters, contrary to all the posturing. He's got to consolidate older and white working class Democrats. They want to know whether he will stand up for them. And they have good reason to be suspicious. It's not simply race, although that is surely part of it. Obama is the epitome of an urban professional, a man whose success, education and life sets him apart. Ask Al Gore and John Kerry, the resulting cultural suspicion would apply even if he were white.
On the other hand, showing folks that he would fight for them won't alienate the broader, new coalition that he's trying to assemble. Women, the young, independents, older Americans, disaffected Republicans -- all are concerned about the economy, all think we're deeply off course, all are looking for a dramatic change. Putting an edge on the contrast between his policies and McCain's would help, not impede, assembling that coalition.
Moreover, Obama needn't abandon his cool to bring some heat to the campaign. He simply needs to use his rhetorical gifts to sharpen the contrast between McCain's old and failed agenda and his own.
For example, McCain has sought to make trade a centerpiece of his campaign, even stumping in Mexico and Canada in support of NAFTA. Obama should take him up on this -- but he needn't imitate the populism of a Bernie Sanders or Sherrod Brown, as successful as that is, to make his point. McCain is frozen in an old fraudulent debate about free trade against protectionism. Obama should dismiss that as a fool's choice.
The reality is that our corporate trade policies -- of by and for global corporations and banks -- can't be sustained; they are making us increasingly dependent on the kindness of foreign creditors, like the Chinese bankers.
The challenge is a fundamental one to our society -- how do we sustain a broad and prosperous middle class in a global economy? More of the same won't get that done, as the middle class is now sinking -- despite working harder , longer and with greater productivity than workers in every other industrial country.
We need to start with a clear measure The success of this economy is not whether multinationals are profiting. Corporate profits have reached record levels, but wages have stagnated. The success of an Obama economy will be measured by whether working families are prospering, whether wages are rising, jobs are more secure, health care and education is affordable and available.
For this we need a dramatic change in course. Current trade deals are simply an expression of corporate lobbies. So no more -- until we forge a national strategy that works for working people, not just special interests. A centerpiece of this must be an Apollo Plan for energy independence, a concerted drive, creating jobs here by investing in efficiency and renewable energy, while seeding the research to capture the new green markets of the future. We need to reward companies for keeping jobs here rather than shipping them abroad - unlike McCain's profligate tax breaks for corporations which will reward them no matter where their jobs are going. We have to invest in education and training, in infrastructure and research and development so we can sustain a high wage path in a global economy -- unlike McCain's plan to lavish more tax breaks on the wealthy while cutting investments in vital domestic programs. We have to push for new global rules that raise standards for the environment, workers, consumers and small investors. We have to curb the casino financial speculation which is destabilizing the real economy, contrary to the advice of Phil Gramm, McCain's financial guru who is an officer in UBS, a bank now under investigation illegally abetting billionaires seeking to avoid paying US taxes. And we have to challenge the mercantilist nations like China that are playing by a different set of rules, putting companies on notice that that we will pursue more but balanced trade with Beijing. FInally, we have to make certain that workers capture a fair share of the increased productivity that they have produced. That requires empowering workers to organize. And it requires insuring basic economic rights -- starting with affordable health care -- that aren't at risk if you lose your job.
Can we sustain the foundation of our democracy -- a broad and prosperous middle class -- in the new economy? To meet that challenge, we can't keep digging the hole we are in. And it isn't enough just to stop digging -- although that would be a good start. We've got to chart the way out. And on that, McCain does not have a clue.
Now Obama's rhetorical gifts are far greater than mine. He can make this less abstract, develop it with stories about real struggles. But by expanding the trade question into what it is -- the question of a national strategy in a global economy, he can change the terms of the debate on the future prosperity and security of this country in a manner that McCain simply can't answer. He can draw the contrast by raising the stakes -- and summoning people to challenge the entrenched interests that stand in the way.
Krugman says what is missing is passion. Obama isn't about to become a passionate, kick ass populist rabble rouser. That's not what brought him this far. But he can challenge McCain forcefully -- on trade, on growth, on health care, on Social Security and Medicare, on national security -- in a way that grounds his argument in the struggles of working families. He can draw the contrast between his ability to mobilize the energy of people with McCain's ability to collect checks from special interests. He can show some steel, even while retaining his cool.
There are only a few times when campaigns can retool. The leadup to the Democratic Convention, when Obama got off the campaign trail, is one. The week of the Republican convention is another. After that, the race turns into a sprint, so the basic themes, contrasts, attack lines have to be in place. If Obama is going to sharpen this race, now is the time.
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Obama needs to call McCain out on Social Security reform. If the MSM or Obama can get McCain to spell out what he intends to do to "shore up" social security, older Americans will have to walk away from McCain. Why are we again talking about abortion, same-sex marriage, and flag pens/patriotism.
People are losing their houses. And if the house next to you is in foreclosure, and the same with the house two doors down on the opposite side of the street - well, the value of your house is probably cratering. As more and more houses go into default, the value of every other house around them continues to decline. Therefore, every day there are more and more houses that have mortgages larger than the house is actually worth. If you are working on reduced hours, or have lost your job, paying the mortgage on a house that may never be worth what's due on it will seem pointless. Its the economy stupid.
A humble suggestion to the campaign--several months ago I heard Obama speaking to a town hall and he used the phrase Economic Patriot Act which he said would encourage companies to keep jobs or create jobs and companies in this country. I thought at the time that this was a fantastic "sound bite" type phrase which could gain some real traction with working class, middle class voters--I'm one and I liked it! I understand people's frustration with the campaign's sometimes very well controlled message and cool, but I keep reminding myself that Obama was Harvard Law Review (ie: top of his class in every way) while John McCain was only 4 or 5 places from the bottom of his Naval Academy class. I'll keep my hope alive and my money on Obama. Remember, if anyone had told you a year ago that he'd be the nominee now--you would most likely not have believed it. How could he possibly beat the juggernaut that was Hillary Clinton's campaign? 'Cause he's one of the smartest guys in the room! Have faith, fellow Democrats!
Will grant that Obama has rhetorical gifts, but what are his actual achievements? He's had one opportunity after another, but nothing to show for these opportunities. That's the reason the MSM is looking at him closely.
Like I mentioned to someone else, when you've had one tenth of the accomplishments that Obama has had, please come back and chat with us about him having "nothing to show".
Again, nothing to make him suitable for office...e
A graduate of Columbia University and Harvard Law School, where he served as president of the Harvard Law Review, Obama worked as a community organizer and practiced as a civil rights attorney before serving in the Illinois Senate from 1997 to 2004.
He taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School from 1992 to 2004. He announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate in January 2003.
After a primary victory in March 2004, Obama delivered the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in July 2004. He was elected to the Senate in November 2004 with 70% of the vote.
Not enough...n
McCain is pulling even because the MSM focus is on the horserace, not issues. Rightwing ideology has sent **everything** it has touched into a dreadful tailspin since Clinton. Obama people should proclaim the **list** at every opportunity, because it is long and nightmarish, and should be kept at the forefront of peoples' minds. List, list, list.
Let's wait until after the convention, at least, before we start panicking about losing this race. Remember this bit of recent history: Obama and his team have already defeated one of the most powerful, well-oiled political machines in history. These people know how to find ways to win. In the last weeks of the primary, Pat Buchanan and others kept repeating, "Obama can't close the deal!" Well, he did close the deal, and he won. Now, the same people are shouting the same phrase. And he's going to prove them wrong again. I'm overjoyed that everybody is underestimating Obama, in spite of his proven prowess at winning, and overestimating McCain. Brace yourself for an Obama landslide.
I love Obama, but if you think this is going to be a landslide, you must not live in a world populated by blue-collar males or many of the elderly. Yes these people should be flocking to Obama because his policies will help them. But many people do get caught up in right wing non-essentials.
It's probably not going to be a landslide, but Obama will win!
Never misunderestimate the great minds of deciders
A better question is why can't Grandpa McCain "close the deal"? He has experience, big money and friends in high places and yet he's 2% below Obama in his best polls? What's wrong with McCain?
I think McCain is taking some drug, in the last three weeks he look fresher.he is not making so many verbal mistakes like he did before.It was very apparent at Saddleback. Anyone else notice this??
or maybe its my imagination.
When you normally view McCain you are only seeing snippets provided by the comics, these are not flattering and if agreesively aimed at Obama would be even worse to Obama. What you saw at Saddleback was just McCain uncut without "funny" commentary.
Yes, you are the only one who noticed the clarity of his responses at Saddleback.
Well, unless you count every single human being on the face of the earth who has commented on it since it took place. Besides them, you're the only one.
This is the problem Obama has.
McCain is a DEMOCRAT
Obama is a SOCIALIST
America would rather have a democrat in office than a socialist. Obama has to run away from his socialism as far as he can in the next few months....
read what you wrote
Obama is a DEMOCRAT
McCain is a PLUTOCRAT
He proved it at Saddleback with his crack about $5,000,000 being the qualification for being rich.
I really doubt you could actually define those terms without use of a dictionary.
You underestimate the magnitude of Obama's problem. He is not qualified and is failing to connect with many Americans, who have started to sense that not all is as it seems in the sunny land of Hope/Change.
I grew up in the maligned "small town America" and I have voted Dem in the last 6 presidential elections (Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore and Kerry). In fact I have contributed time and money to the Democratic party and candidates over the years, but there is NO WAY I will vote for Obama. Not only is he the least qualified candidate for president in recent memory, but simply judging him by the company he has kept over the last 20 years--the likes of Tony Rezko and Jeremiah Wright--reveals him for the hypocrite he really is. Obama's teleprompter skills may be formidable, but they will not compensate for his serious flaws.
NObama!
So, you are a Republican then? You rank Obama below Dukakis???? Come on! Admit it, you really like the war in Iraq, you want to continue undercutting those darned middle class (let's do away em anyway!), you're again women's rights, and you've got a solution to all the education problem...
I am so damned tired of hearing people who proclaim themselves Democrats.
Fine...go ahead...I'
another claim of failure to connect that will also be exposed as false.
"Small town America" has gained quite a reputation with this election! It seems that "small town America" is where America's biggest problem lies, and why America will never get beyond its most destructive force that divides us. IF you are a Democrat, and have voted Democratic for the last 6 presidential elections, including candidates that were far more questionable and with far more baggage than Senator Obama ... and are now willing to forfeit your vote to the Republican candidate, whom I assume does not share your values and vision for America (IF you are a Democrat) ... then your determination NOT to vote for the Democratic candidate in THIS election is based on nothing more than the stereotypes and fears that racism provokes. His association with Rezko or Wright is no more outrageous than the associations that other candidates before him, or his opponent has. He is also MORE qualified than either Mondale or Dukakis were, and perhaps AS qualified as Bill Clinton when he was first elected to the White House. He fails to connect with some Democrats in "small town America" solely because of the color of his skin. Some "small town Americans" have at least had the courage to acknowledge this, while others like yourself believe that if you disguise your antipathy for Obama with spurious arguments like your post makes, then no one will guess your real motive for opposing Obama. YOU may be in denial about this, but to others, your motive is quite
Disagree! I am in small town America, very pro-Obama and I don't think you talk to us or for us at all! The reluctant people here are reluctant because they wanted Clinton and Obama has failed to get past his nuancing!
Obama 08
The "referendum on NObama" here is but putrid swamp gas emmanating from the front lawns of vengeful Hillary supporters, or white elitists, or both, who somehow decide that four more years of McBush is change they can believe in.
Hermanism, if you have not noticed, the people that read the huffington post are people that actually read and think and research stuff. This is not a bunch of high school dropouts like the Hannity and Limbaugh crowd, so your talking points dont work with us. How stupid do you think we are?
Thanks, Robert. Your points are well taken. I think that once these candidates participate in their 3 debates, Obama will be the real choice for the vast majority of our voters. If we have to listen to another Bushite for 4 more years, our mental health centers will be flooded with persons needing drugs to put them to sleep and reduce their pain and depression. God Help Us - Please!
good article... i don't care what anyone says, I'm voting Obama... even though I dislike Bidden... he should go with Powell... ? but who am I? an old white guy living in Mississippi, and if we get another bushwhacking this year I think I'll have to shoot myself.
After arguing with you about your piece on Corporate Taxes, it's nice to be able to agree with you.
No better way for Obama to start what you're suggesting than by drawing the connection between the Iraq War and Oil prices...
I am one who is very concerned that Americans will vote for Stupid again and pick the guy who will enact even more policies that gut the middle class. Has anyone taken a look at his healthcare plan? It is an abomination.
Obama needs to go on a sustained offensive, but he never does that. i remember being very frustrated with him towards the end fo the primary season, too. And there are times when he is just TOO laid back. At least then, I felt that he was restraining himself so as not to turn off too many Hillary voters. But now?
I am pretty much convinced at this point that we will have Bush II in the WH come January. Unless Obama is holding out the big guns for September and beyond, and is going to pick a running mate who will be the attack dog he seems unwilling to be, I think this thing is lost, honestly. McCain wants this badly, so badly he will sell his soul to the devil and will do and say the kinds of things he once criticized.
He seems to want it more than Obama, actually. Being a baseball fan, i know that the team that wants it most, wins.
I will still send $ but I wonder how many will not now? Yeah, he hauled in 8 million one night but that was one night and it wasn't all for his campaign..
I agree with you about Obama going on the offensive, but you should have heard his speech to the VFW this morning, it was about as great as the speech on race. I am so looking forward to his speech at the Dem convention
The real problem is the media - we don't hear Obama - we hear the dumbed down republican version and that is why the polls look so bad. They are desperate to keep the Repugs in office because they are voting their pocket books. Dan Rather admitted that on Bill Moyers, they (the media) are all running scared and whiny.
Obama has run an awesome campaign and he needs to do the Truman thing where he hits every state running. I am praying for Webb and if not him, then that Webb will be DOD and Biden will be Sec of State. or Clark. That will offset McCain...
I totally agree that a big problem is the media. I watched with a mixture of shock and disgust tonight when FOX had a show on the character of McCain, mentioned the Keating Five, his temper and a few other negatives yet of course focused on McCain as hero. CNN showed previews of their Candidates Uncovered showing tomorrow night about the real Obama and McCain. The preview of Obama talked about him being a "cutthroat" politician in his early campaign in Chicago. McCain's preview was all about him as a war "hero", his near death escapes. Unreal! I wonder how O can get his message out when the media has sold out for McCain. I did like his comeback today with the VFW. He sounded serious and angry. I've sent several emails to the Obama campaign about the need to get tougher in the last few weeks. I'm sure they've received a bunch from supporters like me. Let's keep it up.
See Robert L. Borosage's Profile
It was a strong speech -- and Obama is a gifted speaker. BUT
and it's a big but -- the highlight of the speech -- which had to be knoiwn going in -- was Obama's defense of his patriotism -- saying America has to get to the point where we can disagree without questioning character or patriotism.
This isn't an attack, it's a defense. A noble sentiment but truly bad politics. McCain says Obama puts politics over country. Obama says that's not true and it's below the belt. This is like someone calling you a crook and you denying it. The subject is whether you are a crook.
Obama needs personally to be on the offensive. Not defending himself but going after a John McCain who has no clue about how to meet the forbidding challenges this country now finds itself in. Not "stop demeaning my patriotism," but McCain wants to tax your health care.
This is the downside of the lessons now drawn from the 2004 campaign. Ds want to defend themselves immediately against any "Swiftboat" nonsense. But the result can be that they are only defending themselves, not defining the other guy.
The last thing a campaign would want to have right now is a big double digit lead. There is only one way to go from there and that would be down. Right now, I think they are allowing McBush to continue supplying material for their ad blitz when the campaign really gets started after the convention. Obama has called on McBush to disavow the slime book; he hasn't. He has called on McBush to disavow the disloyalty slant to his campaign; he hasn't. More and more stuff for the ads. Without throwing mud, it will be easy to point out how disingenuous McBush really is just by using his own words.
"The last thing a campaign would want to have right now is a big double digit lead."
And the MSM won't let it. As sure as they want to keep the status quo in owning media conglomerates, they also want to keep the battle close for ratings.
They love conflict. Conflict conflict conflict.
If one party or the other gets too far out in front they begin bashing them and propping up the other. Without conflict they have no programming. The MSM will keep it going like this till the last weeks before the election at which point the will give the Right wing attack dogs free reign to smear Obama just like they did to Kerry and Gore.
Never, ever underestimate the power of stupid. 80% of the population thinks America is on the wrong track and those same 80% will vote for a continuation of that track if McCain has a better 30-second sound byte.
"With Democrats racking up double digit leads in party ID, and what Republicans call their "brand" debased, McCain is running basically even with Obama in the polls. No wonder folks are starting to get worried."
Notwithstanding the regular Obama panegyric and the recapitulation of some of the off-the-shelf attempts to demean the other guy--who in my humble opinion is no prize--that last sentence can be considerably improved, owing to the fact that grandiloquent, done-nothing parvenu Obama used to have that big lead:
"No wonder. Folks are starting to get worried."
Lots of people have given up the silly hope that the rookie was going to say something about his version of this year's mantra "change" other than that we can believe in it. People are beginning to see that we need a whole president, not just a mouth. Everyone sees that Obama has done nothing to show that he ought to be president, and many of the gulls who have thought that would be okay are beginning to snap out of it. And, of course, more and more are noticing that his attitude is something like "I'll let them make me president now." Yes, indeed, lots of Obama thralls are starting to get worried about the fellow.
I think the worry stems more from bigoted attacks,racist remarks and lies and innuendo 24/7 on GOP racist talk radio,Rush blatantly starting "Operation Chaos" for the express purpose of creating chaos with the vote,Hannity and the rest of the "good ole boys"network defaming Obama daily.I worry about the vote too,will there be caging,will the electronic voting machines built by a Republican owned company be fixed to cheat? All these things along with a SCOTUS that stole the election before and the criminally competent people like Karl Rove all add up to something to worry about.I believe if there is an honest election Obama would win in a landslide and McC would be flushed down the toilet,POW doesn't equal experience or bravery.Wa
When you have accomplished one tenth as much as Obama has in his lifetime, please come back and talk to us some more about him being just a mouth.
Well, don't know about the guy who you're responding to but I am pretty sure he isn't running for President of the United States just now, so is your question really apt? Neither am I, but I match Obama in education, ran my own rather sophisticated business for some time and practice a profession. And, I've also given some pretty good speeches from time to time and I recall HRC noting that Obama once gave a pretty good speech.
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