The Center Left Nation

Conservatives started spinning even before the dancing stopped on election night. Obama's victory is impressive, but "this is still a center right nation," went the mantra. "This was a good Democratic year, says Bill Kristol, "but this is still a center-right country. Conservative and the Republican Party will have a real chance for a comeback. National Review editor Rich Lowry is less sanguine, but concludes:

"Even in unimaginably challenging conditions for Republicans, the ideological composition of the election was essentially unchanged from 2004. Only 22 percent of voters identified themselves as liberals. The rest were moderates or conservatives. It is indeed, as conservatives have been insisting in recent days, a center-right country. The question is how to appeal to the center again."

Sure, this is a center-right country, but only if you substitute addition for analysis. There are more conservatives than liberals - as there has been for years. So add them to the 44% of the electorate that says they are "moderates," and you get a center-right majority.

But do a little analysis. "Moderate" isn't a place holder, as voters who describe themselves that way have attitudes on the issues of the day. And when you look at attitudes, rather than addition, there is no question: Conservatives have had their day. This is a center-left, not a center-right nation.

The Center for America's Future joined with Democracy Corps to do a nation wide poll on election eve (for full report and poll go here) and with an expanded sample, we could probe attitudes of voters by political identification. What we found was clear: on both values and issues, moderates line up with liberals to form a strong majority that isolates conservatives.

On national security, does our security depend on building strong ties with other nations or on our own military strength? Liberals say ties with other nations 76-20; moderates 63-31. Conservatives go the other way 51-43.

Should we begin to take troops out of Iraq or stay the course until we reach stability? Liberals 92-7 for getting troops out; moderates 64-33. Conservatives? By two to one -- 66-33 -- they would stay the course.

Does government regulation do more good or more harm? Liberals believe it does more good than harm by 75-18; moderates by 60-36. Conservatives go the other way, even after the financial collapse, 52-44.

Are you worried that we will fail to make investments we need to create jobs or worry that we will spend too much and have to raise taxes? Liberals worry about not making needed investments 73-23; moderates by 53-44. Conservatives worry about spending and taxes 69-29.

Did you worry more that Barack Obama would raise taxes or that John McCain would continue Bush's economic policies? Liberals by a margin of 58% worry about McCain; moderates the same by 29%. Conservatives by 46 - 70-24 - worry about Obama.

Should homosexuality be accepted or discouraged by society. Liberals say accepted by 82-17; moderates by 61-28. Conservatives want homosexuality discouraged by 63-31.

When we asked whether Republicans lost because they were too conservative or not conservative enough, or whether they should move to the center or reaffirm their principles and stay on the right, liberals and moderates were clear. They lost because they were too conservative and should move back towards the center. Conservatives, not surprisingly, reaffirmed the faith.

On issue after issue, moderates stand with liberals, not conservatives. This is a center-left nation.

Republicans are not only an aging, monochromatic, regional minority party. They not only must now suffer the circular firing squad that follows defeat. They not only struggle to find a compelling leader or a relevant agenda. They swim against the tide. They are a largely conservative party in a center-left nation. Obama's mandate is clear. And they'd be well advised to get out of the way.

Comments

[dadw5boys]

Socialism for the wealthy and capitalism for the poor.

Tax breaks, write off's, non taxable and tax incentives for the rich.

Income tax, Sales Taxes, Property taxes, Auto tags, Parking fees, city sticker, inspection fees and many others with only two write offs. Mortage interest and property taxes.

[MagisterLudi]

America is absolutely rightwing nation, this election notwithstanding.
1.Despite numerous and appalling Bush failures half of the country voted Republican!
2. People who call themselves liberal or progressives (like Obama) would be classified as hidebound right wingers in most European countries. Obama would fit right in the Christian Democrat Union party in Germany.

[chaos4700]

Math and political analysis are not your strong suits, are they?

1) Bush and Republicans have been consistently winning less than half the vote. He didn't win the popular vote in 2000, barely crossed the 50% line in 2004 and it was decidedly less than half the vote this year.

2) Obama has identified himself as a centrist, not a liberal or a progressive. He is specifically reaching out to both sides of the political spectrum. There are a lot of progressives who are not exactly happy about that (myself included) but at least we have someone who's reaching out /at all/. Instead of surrounding himself with incompetent idealogues the way the Bush administration did.

Anyway, Republicans aren't exactly "right wing" anymore. They certainly aren't conservatives. Fiscal conservatism? Fail. Making the government smaller? Fail. Cutting back on laws to enhance personal freedom? Fail. "We aren't the world's police!" Fail.

How come a 51%+ election win is a mandate to you guys only when it's your party that gets it?

[Marnie21]

I am proud to be a liberal and I truly hope our country is moving in a center left direction but only time will tell.

[iPolitics]

USA, Center-LEFT

[steve-in-abq]

You write as if there are (2) choices, maybe (3), liberal, conservative, or a combination of the two (moderate). There are several models for political classification. I like the 'World's Smallest Political Quiz" model. It is a diamond with liberal on the left, conservative on the right, centrist in the middle, statist at the bottom, and libertarian at the top. I place myself as a libertarian with conservative tendencies. I think that most Americans fear the statist classification (big government). The conservatives, the centrist or the liberals should all be wary of slipping down into centrist territory. Check it out. We should try to see where the nation is on this diamond and not just on your line.

[knerd]

We can call the nation whatever we want. The facts are, however, that this nation voted for Barack Hussein Obama by a clear majority.

And, if all the legal votes were to be fairly and accurately counted, overwhelmingly for Obama.

[emptysuitsneednotapply]

if you look at the voting on issues across the country it voted center right ( ie gay marriage etc). your kidding yourself.

[americansheep]

I think that it's way to early to judge which way the country is leaning. John McCain was not a strong candidate and the choice of Palin, probably not his first choice, was a huge drag. Is "competence" liberal or conservative? To me, this victory, which was decisive, was mainly a vote against the incompetence of leadership that we've endured. If the Democrats want to stay in office they'll need to demonstrate "competence" first and foremost.

[freshnotbitter]

America elects a president and as long as he delivers his party is retained in power.

When he doesn't deliver the other party is elected.

Republicans did not deliver. They were not of the "right" by any means. They were simply reactionary in a time that demanded action.

Obama can be reactionary too if he likes. And he will be voted out of office.

I don't see a poll asking the Americann people the following questions:

Do you believe in an acitivist government?

Do you believe the governmnet should act to stop illegal immigration?

Do you believe the government should act to stop the bankruptcy of General Motors?

Do you belive the government should act to stop the banking system from collapsing?

Do you believe the government should act to end the Iraq war?

etc.........

Obama's catchphrase for his administration has something to do with freedom - "a rebirth of freedom" or some such thing. I think "a door to the future" would have been good for his inauguration speech.

His campaign slogan started as "turning the page" but you can't turn the page on a limbless soldier.
So he went to "change' then "change that matters" and that was fine. I suggested early "Taking the next step" which would have worked against Bush's total inaction on all fronts while pacifying the intellectual establishment which is obsessed with "incremental" change - a dangerous concept for America which needs transformational change at this point.

[DCX2]

NYT had a pretty nice graphic showing the shift to Democrats.

http://googlejournalist.blogspot.com/2008/11/america-is-center-moderate-country.html

I worry that we might squander the political capital we just acquired in this election. We mustn't veer _too_ far to the left, lest we do to ourselves what the Republicans just did to themselves.

That said, I like these statistics.

[gillyrosh]

The people in the permanent political establishment are conservative, which makes sense since their greatest interest is in preserving the status quo - i.e., their own continued hegemony.

The rest of the country, I think, tilts toward the liberal end of the political spectrum on many issues, especially when it comes to getting economic help. I've never quite bought the idea that the majority of the country subscribes to the up-by-your­-bootstrap­s fantasy (after all, not all boots are created equal and the average person knows this).

But I think as long as the political establishment remains conservative, the country will be perceived as center-right. They're the ones who set the agenda and the boundaries for how issues are framed, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

[csavage]

Our country moves in cycles...the Dems lost it, despite a few less than stellar Repub moments, in 1994 with Gingrich. Now it's the Repubs turn. The fact is conservatism is still attractive to many-the problem, the hate, fear-mongering and overt racism displayed with the recent campaign made more than a few squeamish about the direction of their party. They'll regroup, hopefully a few will remind people about their principles and the shift will occur. The country will eventually shift back when the Dems become what true liberals hate in a few years.....

Don't believe for a moment Chris Buckley or the Goldwaters became liberals. They want their old party back and they knew an implosion was the only way to get the process started...

[tyger]

I am the somebody who knows I must pay my share of taxes because as a society it's cheaper for goverment services when we pay a collective amount. As the taxes during the Bush years lessened, everything else rose. If I pay out of pocket I can barely make it. When Uncle Sam sends monies to the States my local taxes are less. Since the tax decrease my local taxes are more. You cannot get something for nothing, as a democratic society we expect everyone to carry their own weight but expect the government to make the load a little more bearable. I'm still trying to figure out how Idiot Bush thought borrowing money to support two wars was a good option. Our taxes pay for wars and during wars we saccrifice and pay more. It really is patriotic to pay taxes. It is our obligation for our country. Who are these idiots who keep maintaining government is bad. Government is the people. So why would anyone want to eradicate the government which protects the people. I hope this is the end of the Repubs!

[VikingQuest]

"Government is the people"

As the people did we decide to giveout over $1 trillion dollars so the AIGs of the world can pay massive bonuses and have parties?

[VikingQuest]

"Government is the people"

Did we the people decide to leave our borders wide open?

1/3 of Obama supporters are for amnisty yet that is the path we are taking.

[legalclubs]

"It really is patriotic to pay taxes."

As you are arguing against the lowering of taxes you appear to be stating that it is patriotic to pay higher taxes then we are paying now. Perhaps you are not aware that there already is a box on your tax form where you can voluntarily contribute more to the U.S. Treasury then required. Ironically this change on the 1040 was instituted by Republicans to show that Democrats who wanted to raise taxes were hypocrits because they wouldn't voluntarily contribute, which is exactly what happened. Almost no money comes in through the voluntary payment option -- So I guess nobody in America is patriotic.

[sandrarita]

Right on, Mr. Borosage. Regardless of the conservative sound bites and talking heads, Obama received a 2-1 electoral vote count, and over 8 million lead in the popular vote, and that is a clear mandate for progressive and center left policies. Conservatives can call it what they want, label it what they want, Obama won, we the people elected him, and you lost. The Bush electorate had their turn, now it is ours, for better or worse, like it or not.

[Proletarian101]

So does that mean that we should discount the needs or wishes of Republicans? I thought this election was supposed to bring people together.

[RevMetheus]

Simple answer, yes. "Bipartisanship" for the last 10 years has been "screw the Dems." Bush used a losing national vote as a mandate to do whatever he wanted because he said the will of the people was clear. Now we have a larger majority of voters that agree, so simple answer is yes, discount the republicans as much as they discounted everyone but their donors for years.

This election was supposed to bring all the people back into the fold that had been cast out for being "unpatriotic" and "socialist" during the Blunt/Bush­/Rove/DeLa­y years. all the haters can hang.

Longer simple answer is, no, no ones wishes or needs should be ignored, and we should teach the other side to play ball after over a decade of making up their own rules.

This election may have started out to bring people together, but then one side went crazy with the "commie traitor terrorist" stuff and ruined it for everyone. Now they want a seat on the bus of inclusion after holding the wheel of the bus of suck and telling us all it was for our own good. They need to work their way back on before we can trust them. Maybe have some investigations, a little accountability, all that stuff they get paid to do that they havent been doing for years.

[VikingQuest]

"a clear mandate for progressive and center left policies"

What policies do you speak of?

[VikingQuest]

Do you know anyone with a real job that says: Gee, I wish government could set more regulations on me and make me pay more taxes for benefits I don't receive because they know how to spend my money better than I can?

If the answer is no, we are still center right.

[Topsailsman]

Do you know anyone with a real job that says: Gee, I wish government would cut taxes even more for rich executives, let business pollute and operate unsafe working environments, let business hire illegal aliens and send jobs offshore so CEO's can make more money? If the answer is no, then I guess we are center left.

[nikkiazz2fat]

i thought liberals supported amnesty for undocumented immigrants to work & provide for their families. i thought the GOP & Lou Dobbs were the ones against illegal aliens.

thats why I changed to Independent both parties have an identity crisis. I voted for Obama because I believe most of his positions. Obama is for amnesty & protecting traditional marriage while allowing others civil unions.

[prostock69]

Nice comeback :)

[SophieAmrain]

I know several people who think that government can do a better job than individual people at forming an army, building bridges, and organizing justice. Of course, the current government hasn't exactly been proving these assertions:-)

[VikingQuest]

National security is one of the few things actually in the constitution that government still abides by.

[RussellH]

So you live in a place where you don't need government help? No police and fire protection, no schools, no sewers, no mail, etc., etc.? What a dunce! Think of the thousands of Americans who once held real jobs but lack of regulation caused the financial collapse and those jobs have evaporated. Think of the incompetance of the auto industry in fighting higher mileage vehicles in favor of SUVs, opposing Democratic congressional initiatives in the face of Republican fillibuster but now clamor for government bailouts. I want the government to do what it does best---provide services I can't on my own, but to stay out of my bedroom. And I will continue to fight for a government that allows me to marry the man I love and affirms by the Supreme Court that constitutional right of equality.

[VikingQuest]

"No police and fire protection, no schools, no sewers, no mail, etc., etc.?"

Sure I do, what percentage of tax dollars you currently pay support that? Maybe 5-10%

[mh01]

SInce when did the federal government provide firemen and police? Schools? Sewers?

Those are all local and state responsibilities, and we pay state tax and property taxes for that.

I agree, i want government to provide those services, but I want state governments making more decisions, and county and city governments. Those people have to walk around in my neighborhood, and are far more accountable to the citizens.

the last thing we need is bigger federal government. And understand something, Bush was not a conservative, he was a big government, fiscal liberal in republican clothing.

[zerotimes10]

Don't you just love the Right Wing? First they tell us that Obama is the most Liberal Man in the Senate. Now he gets elected in a landslide and all of a sudden the same country that just elected him is "Center Right"?

[VikingQuest]

Are you saying one election makes a country swing one was or the other?

I am saying that Obama was the better man for the job, therefore he got it. Does that mean there is some crazy shift in beliefs? Nope.

[RevMetheus]

Gee, I wish our government wouldnt have deregulated the energy industry, the finance industry, the phone industry, and all the other industries that have been gouging me for more and more ever since the government stopped keeping track of them. All the industries we are now having to bail out with taxpayer money now that our own savings have been freely given to these leeches.

Gee I wish our government would spend my taxes on infrastructure instead of me having to pay more in taxes during an emergency. Gee I wish our government hadnt let Enron totally screw California out of billions of dollars because they were friends with them. Gee I wish our government hadnt let deregulation screw up the financial industry and I really wish that we didnt have to bail them out now.

Gee I wish my money wasnt going into military programs that I have no say over or even get to look at the budget. I wish $1 million in US funds had been dropped on the corner of my block instead of some block in Bahgdad.

I have a real job and I approve this message. We are center left in finance AND in society. If anyone with a real job can look at the last 20 years and say that deregulation has done us a lick of good and hasnt screwed us out of job, home, and wellbeing, you are living in an illusion.

[tomas0808]

Nice post