THE BLOG

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors

Robert Lenzner Headshot

China's 10% Growth Rate Is Over

Posted: Updated:

Subscribe to the Economist's recorded reading of the entire issue from last week, which gives you a clearer view of what's in store for China. The inflation is still high, and the 10% annual growth rate of the last decade is going to wither to under 5% by 2014 or so, according to the Economist. The innovation necessary to boom a consumer economy is questionable. The state banks have probably been loaded with questionable loans. Far too many old people will have to be supported financially, a serious drawback to the expected changeover from export-driven to consumer-driven economy. There could as well be growing social unrest and unexpected hiccups in the hoped-for peaceful transition to power by the next generation of leaders. A tall, tall load to manage smoothly. In fact, the Economist more or less feels the days of double-digit growth for China are over. Period.

This is a completely contrary opinion by the finest publication in the world. And it comes across in much clearer, fuller view by listening to it -- rather than reading it. It is definitely the most pressing food for thought over this holiday weekend as I write this. For it put the rub to the automatic US investment view you must be over-weighted in the most dynamic emerging market in the world.

Other exemplary pieces I found fascinating -- a strong probing analysis of both the Greek debt quandary and the Massachusetts health plan. The facts and figures about the impossibly higher trend for health costs in the state of Massachusetts are most worrying. The dangers are underscored with the numbers of dollars involved and the future trend which is not beneficial for our financial health -- to put it mildly.

I recommend subscribing to the weekly Economist by recording rather than reading the actual magazine, because those crisp British voices and the material make their point strongly and more absorbing than reading it.