Honduras' Coup Regime: Poster Child for Trade Sanctions

According to press reports, so far the mediation of Costa Rican President Arias, encouraged by Secretary of State Clinton, has not produced any change in the refusal of the coup regime in Honduras to allow Honduras' democratically elected President Zelaya to resume his office. That's not surprising: the strategy of the de facto regime seems to be to try to run out the clock on Zelaya's term, as long as they can.

That's why it makes sense for the U.S., working together with the governments in the region, to continue to ratchet up pressure on the coup regime. Indeed, as Reuters reported:

On the eve of Thursday's talks, the U.S. Embassy in Tegucigalpa said Washington had suspended $16.5 million in military assistance programs to Honduras, and added an additional $180 million in U.S. aid could also be at risk.

One lever that the U.S. government has not publicly discussed using is trade sanctions. Simply beginning the discussion would increase pressure on the coup regime to stand down.

Trade agreements to which the U.S. and Honduras are signatory are unlikely to present any obstacle, because the coup regime in Honduras has no standing to press any claims on behalf of Honduras in any international body. No government in the world, including the United States, recognizes the coup regime as the legitimate government of Honduras. If anyone in Honduras wanted to press a claim, they would need the approval of President Zelaya.

Indeed, there is a powerful and recent precedent for ignoring any attempt by the coup regime to represent Honduras in any international body: that's what the members of the Organization of American States -- including the U.S. -- did last Saturday, when coup regime tried to withdraw Honduras from the OAS.

The OAS had given the coup regime a Saturday deadline for allowing the reinstatement of President Zelaya, or the OAS would suspend Honduras from membership. The coup regime tried to pre-empt the suspension by announcing Honduras' withdrawal from the OAS. The coup regime's announcement was ignored, and the OAS suspended Honduras.

So, if the U.S. imposed trade sanctions on the coup regime, and the coup regime tried to complain, the U.S. could simply ignore it, as it ignored the coup regime's complaint on Saturday. No government in the world, or international body, would take the coup regime's side; there is no government in the world that recognizes the coup regime as the legitimate government of Honduras.

Of course, the actual use of trade sanctions would raise justified concerns about who they will hurt, and the Obama Administration can -- and I'm sure they would -- take this into account when deploying this lever. The choices aren't "no trade sanctions" or "embargo." The Obama Administration could target imports or exports that would send a strong signal to the coup regime and its supporters in Honduras' economic elite that they will pay an increasing price for intransigence, while avoiding imports and exports that would significantly affect poor Hondurans.

Merely starting the discussion will increase the pressure on the coup regime -- so let the discussion begin. If the Obama Administration would simply announce that they are studying the possibility of trade sanctions, that would be a big step forward.

Comments

[Al Giordano - Huffpost Blogger]

Excellent find, Robert.

When Zelaya, last week, visited the Dominican Republic and its president at first I thought "what's up with that?"

Then I remembered that the Dominican Republic is part of the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA, which sometimes is called DR-CAFTA for that reason).

Zelaya has also visited the other member countries in these two weeks: Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The DR visit was telling in that he likely also has CAFTA in mind as a tool to use here.

[johnashman]

Apparently, Zelaya has an overabundance of 'tools' at his disposal.

[spreadlove59]

Robert, here are some facts for you and your readers to consider:
" On June 25th Zelaya issued a decree ordering all government employees to take part in the “Public Opinion Poll to convene a National Constitutional Assembly” , Decree PCM-020. The decree was published on Saturday on the official newspaper. With this event, Mister Zelaya triggered a constitutional protection that automatically removed him from office.

Constitutional assemblies are convened to write new constitutions. In Honduras, you have 365 articles that can be changed by Congress. When Zelaya published that decree to regulate an “opinion poll” about the possibility of convening a national assembly he acted against the unchangeable articles of the constitution that deal with the prohibition of reelecting a president and of extending his term. His actions showed intent.

That intent is sanctioned with the immediate removal of those involved in the action as stated in Article 239 of the Constitution which reads: “No citizen that has already served as head of the Executive Branch can be President or Vice-President. Whoever violates this law or proposes its reform, as well as those that support such violation directly or indirectly, will immediately cease in their functions and will be unable to hold any public office for a period of 10 years.” Notice that the rule speaks about intent and that it also says immediately –as in instant, as in no trial required, as in no impeachment needed."

[Al Giordano - Huffpost Blogger]

Your interpretation - that article 239 somehow prohibits any constituent assembly (constitutional convention) to make a new constitution, or a president even advocating one - is over-reaching and not legal. That clearly is not its intent at all. Otherwise, why would the constitution provide, also, for the organization of such constituent assemblies?

Furthermore, if your argument is true, the coup "president" Roberto Micheletti would have violated it back in 1985 when he proposed the same.

There's a lot of disinformation coming out of the pro-coup side that has to be filed in the "big lie" category. Repeating such yarns over and over again do not make them true.

[johnashman]

Simply because the supreme court doesn't enforce the constitution to its limits in one instance does not mean it can't in another, more serious instance. In this case, having ballots created in a country where another democratically elected dictator has bypassed term limits wasn't exactly the smartest move ever, nor was firing his top general over it. This is not disinformation, it's in black and white. Our supreme court does not enforce much of our own Constitution. That does not change the fact that much of what the government does is unconstitutional as explained by the folks that wrote it [national healthcare, welfare, education, etc, etc, etc.] To paraphrase "what about 'thou shalt not' don't you people understand?"

[spreadlove59]

Robert,
With all due respect please open your mind up and consider the facts. Everything was legal (arresting Zelaya), except taking him out of the country. This decision was taken because if Zelaya had remained arrested in Honduran territory bloodshed would probably have resulted.
Please refer to two cases that provided Hondurans with fear of this bloodshed:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124744094880829815.html

Next time you propose something as hurtful as TRADE sanctions, please make sure you there is no evidence to the contrary that what you call a coup is that and not something MUCH more complex like Zelaya's ouster was.
Asking for Zelaya's reinstatement would be asking for Hondurans to IGNORE their Constitution.

[Ergon]

For all the bleating about the Honduran 'Constitution' it is a transitional document which put a gloss of democracy on what had been one of the longest running dictatorships in South America and enshrined the power of the military. Counterpunch has run a great series of articles explaining this process. It's time a new constitution was drafted based on genuine democratic principles anyway. And anyone who knows the long history of the US in Honduras might think twice before using the Honduran constitution as a basis of the coup attempts for legitimacy. Zelaya acted within the limits placed on him, and if a few oligarchs get their ox gored, too bad. They're on their way out, no matter how much the US tries to delay it.
I really would like to know in what way this is not similar to what happened in Haiti, with the ouster of President Aristide.

[johnashman]

Please explain "genuine democratic principles"? Pure democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what is for dinner. "genuine democratic principles" means the majority gets to screw the minority. That's why constitutions exist, to set boundaries that protect the individual, the proper use of government power and to otherwise prevent chaos. It doesn't always work as can be seen in the US, but when it does, it's a marvelous thing to behold. I'd love to buy the Honduran supreme court a round of beers at a local bar and hear what they have to say. Or maybe invite them to teach our supreme court a thing or two about doing its job.

[wassilij]

Who else knows that the CIA is behind the coup?At least 2 of the leaders of this "coup' were educated at the School of the Americas.Ft Benning,Ga­.!!!!!!!!!­!!!So much for change and transparency.

[johnashman]

School of Americas is a fantastic institution. That doesn't mean that all its graduates are fantastic individuals nor does it mean that you will agree with all of their actions.

"to provide professional education and training to eligible persons of the nations of the Western Hemisphere within the context of the democratic principles set forth in the Charter of the Organization of American States." Its "mission also includes fostering mutual knowledge, transparency, confidence, and cooperation by promoting democratic values; respect for human rights; and an understanding of U.S. customs and traditions. Specific subjects set by Congress include leadership development; counterdrug; peacekeeping; democratic sustainment; resource management; and disaster preparedness and relief planning. In every course offered, eight hours of democracy and human rights instruction is mandatory."

[ModernTimes1]

Honduran military has done wrong.
They should immediately extradite ex-President back to Honduras and place him in jail as per Supreme Court order to stand trial for treason.
At this point he is a suspected felon who must be placed in detention.
Most people don't know that his own party voted him out and an orderly and lawful succession has occurred. By the way, the new President, Micheletti is a leftist. He is the liberal leader of Congress.
Now if only U.S. could v'e done this facing Bush/Cheney constitutional violations.
Learn yankee.
But seriously, I find it the height of arrogance that foreign politicians trust this power grasping autocrat over the will of the people expressed by the Congress, Supreme Court, Attorney General and the Honduran Constitution.

[ModernTimes1]

Anyone who bothered to read the Honduran Constitution and the voluminous case load which led to exile will have no choice to conclude that Zelaya is very lucky not to be in jail.
Fact: Attorney General, Supreme Court, Congress and HIS OWN PARTY found Zelaya in serious violation of Honduran law and the Constitution.

The ONLY wrong thing done was to exile Zelaya, instead of imprisoning as per the Supreme Court order.

International politicians should become better acquainted with the case, instead of trusting CNN.

[guinganbresil]

What embodies the "legitimate government" of Honduras?

1 - Mel Zelaya?

or

2 - The institutions (including their elected, appointed, and civil servants) as defined by the Honduran constitution?

From what I can see, we (UN, OAS, Obama Administration) are supporting ONE MAN against the institutions of the Honduran government as defined by their CONSTITUTION. If we could force the Hondurans (by hook or by crook) to discard their current constitution and restore Zelaya to power would we have done right by the Honduran nation?

It is true that President Zelaya was democratically elected. It is also true that the members of the Honduran Legislature were democratically elected. The Honduran Supreme court was elected by the legislature. The constitution places limits on the actions of the President, and defines the conditions under which he should be removed. Should the President have unlimited power? Will that provide the most liberty and security to the Honduran people? --- No. We should support the legitimate government of Honduras as defined by the Honduran Constitution.

[Tamo]

Trade embargos have never worked. They clench the fist of the rulers, and starve the rest of the country. Terrible idea, and even worse when put into practice.

[RobertNaiman]

I haven't called for a trade embargo. I am asking the Obama Administration to consider trade sanctions. An embargo is a total (or near-total) block on trade. Sanctions can be targeted, and sometimes they are. Whatever one thinks, for example, of the UN Security Council sanctions on Iran, they are not an embargo. They are targeted to particular sectors that are linked to Iran's nuclear program. The unilateral US sanctions on Iran, by contrast, are not targeted.

[DS1815]

Whether we agree with their laws or not, Honduran law clearly states that Mr. Zelaya broke the law. Zelaya had stated an intention to hold a referendum to amend the constitution. Under Honduran law, any amendment must be done by the Congress. Congress would not do so. Zelaya stated he would do it without them. Congress, the A.G., and the president of elections petitioned the Supreme Court to determine if that conduct was legal, and they determined it was and ordered Zelaya to stop.

Zelaya ordered the General of the Joint Chiefs of the Army to distribute the election materials. The General stated he would not do so in violation of a court order; Zelaya fired him and ignored a Court ordered he be reinstated.

Zelaya stated he intended to continue in his course and the Court issued a warrant for his arrest.

After Zelaya was arrested, the constitutional successor was sworn in.

This brings me to my real concern with our position on Honduras. If we demand Honduras take Zelaya back as president despite Honduran law, we are stating that Honduran laws are not laws, but guidelines. That is, they are only laws until enough pressure can be applied to break them. This is an argument that "might makes right" and is contrary to our constitution's principle of "natural law." It will have been determined that Honduran laws are breakable by those with enough force (for Chavez, , for Zelaya, US pressure).

[RobertNaiman]

I believe the question of whether the Honduran military's actions were legal has been settled - they weren't. See the interview in the Miami Herald with the military's top legal adviser, wherein he admitted that the Honduran military broke the law.

http://www.miamiherald.com/1506/story/1125872.html

[guinganbresil]

My read of the Miami Herald article was that the illegality was in WHERE they took him after they removed him from office. NOT the legality of his removal - that was settled by the Honduran Supreme Court.

It is analogous to the passengers in a car driven by a drunk driver dropping him off in a lot marked "No Tresspassing" and driving off (sober). The police pick up the drunk, chase down the car, and not only want them to take the drunk back in the car, but they want him to drive as well!

[kgb999]

So. When Honduras holds elections in November; are they still subject to these sanctions?

[RobertNaiman]

kgb999 writes:

"So. When Honduras holds elections in November; are they still subject to these sanctions?"

Hopefully not - because hopefully the coup regime will be gone by then.

Existing US law says that when US aid is suspended under the Foreign Assistance Act due to a coup, it can be reinstated when the President certfies that a democratically elected government has taken power.

[DeWayne]

There is little doubt the US Corp-Gov is involved in this 'military-­overthrow' of the Honduras-gov, so it is obvious Americans must first bring pressure upon the US-Gov, and not the Honduras-Gov that would simply let their citizens take all the suffering that would result.

Also this atrocity is another sign the 'Last Empire' is finally losing control of it's Protectorates and new/old Colonies. American citizen's need apply as much complaint in recognition of destabelization by US-Corp-elite in this part of the world, such as Columbia being the last South American stronghold, and remind the US-Gov even Columbia are bringing their Death Squad "School of Assassins" to trial.

[RobertNaiman]

Yes, Americans must bring pressure on the US-Gov - but part of that is pressuring the US Gov to do more to end the coup. Sanctions on the Honduran government wouldn't necessarily cause the citizens to suffer. For example, you could put a travel ban on the coup officials - that wouldn't affect the citizens at all.