If Republicans Represent Their Districts, There's a Veto-Proof Majority to End the War

The Washington struggle over establishing a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq is once again in the headlines. Progress is being made in splitting off Republicans from the Bush Administration, but so far it's painfully slow. Meanwhile, President Bush sends more young Americans off to death and life-altering injury, and the Iraqi death toll climbs towards a million.

A striking fact about this situation is that if Republicans in Congress voted according to voter sentiment in their districts, there would be an overwhelming majority in Congress for a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

Almost all published polling on the withdrawal question is national. Very little published polling has been done on the basis of congressional districts. Such polling is relatively expensive, because it requires interviewing a lot more people.

As a result, a lot of people may not realize that when you have seven in 10 Americans nationally supporting a timetable for withdrawal, as in a recent USA Today poll, that means that in the overwhelming majority of congressional districts, there is a clear majority for withdrawal, including in a majority of "Republican" districts.

Although the most recent polling that breaks down responses by partisan affiliation suggests that more Republican voters are still opposed to a timetable for withdrawal than support one, the margin is not nearly as sharp among Republicans as the margin for withdrawal among Democrats and Independents. Of course, the typical "Republican" district is not comprised entirely of Republican voters. On average, a district with a 55/45 Republican/Democrat split -- and that is very much a "Republican" district, as such things are judged by political handicappers -- is still going to have a clear majority for withdrawal.

To make this concrete, Just Foreign Policy has created the "Withdrawal Support Calculator." It estimates the percentage of voters that support withdrawal in each district and state by matching national poll data to district partisan affiliation. In over three-fourths of districts, a majority supports bringing the troops home.

If the Withdrawal Support Calculator suggests that your Representative is not representing his or her constituents on this issue, why not share that information with your Representative, your neighbors and your local news media?