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Robert Naiman

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Why the Jobs Argument Against Military Cuts is Bogus

Posted: 08/16/11 04:16 PM ET

For the first time in a decade, significant cuts in projected military spending are on the table. If the "Super Congress" doesn't reach a deal on $1.2 trillion in debt reduction over the next ten years by Thanksgiving, $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts will be triggered, half of which must come from the military; and if the Super Congress does reach a deal, the prospects are good that cuts in projected military spending will be a significant part of the story (you can add your voice for cuts in projected military spending here.)

Obviously, however, the prospect of significant military cuts has well-heeled opponents. The military-industrial-Congressional-lobbyist-think tank-corporate media complex is not just going to roll over and play dead. In the next three months, we can expect a steady stream of pro-military spending propaganda. Expect to hear a lot about China, Iran, North Korea, and "global terrorism" as the beneficiaries of the military-industrial complex try to justify why we must continue to spend much more on the military than we did while opposing the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

But another argument against cuts to projected military spending is sure to rear its ugly head: we shouldn't cut military spending, because that would cost American jobs.

In the current political context, this "jobs" argument is 100% nonsense. Here's why.

The (first-order) Keynesian economics story for government spending to boost employment has three basic elements:

1. The economy is not always at full employment. Sometimes, there are a significant number of people who are "involuntarily unemployed" -- they would like to work for the prevailing wage but cannot find a job.

2. When this situation occurs, it is not automatically self-correcting, over a time horizon that most people are willing to tolerate. The economy can remain at much less than full employment for years.

3. There's something that the government can and should do to address this situation: engage in deficit spending to boost aggregate demand and put people back to work.

There are three important things to remember about this story:

1. It's a story that only makes sense when the economy is not at full employment. When the economy is at full employment, there is no general argument for government spending to increase overall employment. Of course, even when the economy is at full employment, we still want the government to do things. But spending money with the goal of increasing overall employment is not one of them.

Suppose there are a bunch of unemployed people, and a bridge collapses. Now, you have two arguments for repairing the bridge. One is, the bridge needs to be repaired so people can use the bridge. And another is, we have all these people unemployed and the government can put some of them to work. But suppose, on the other hand, that the economy is at full employment when the bridge collapses. Now, you still have the argument that the bridge needs to be repaired so people can use it. But you no longer have an argument that we can put unemployed people to work. Everyone who's going to repair the bridge is already doing something else. They're going to have to stop doing something else to repair the bridge. The government, in repairing the bridge, is not boosting employment. This isn't an argument against repairing the bridge. It's an argument against claiming that boosting employment is a benefit of repairing the bridge, if the economy is already at full employment.

2. The second key thing about this story is that when the economy is at less than full employment, and the government spends money with the goal of boosting employment (in addition to whatever other goals the spending might be intended to achieve), it's key that this be deficit spending. In this first-order Keynesian story, the idea is for the government to add money to the economy in order to boost demand. If the government builds a bridge, and then immediately raises taxes in order to pay for the bridge, it hasn't done anything to boost employment, because it withdrew exactly as much money from the economy as it added. The money that the government spent on the bridge supported employment, but the money that the government withdrew from the economy in the form of taxes also supported employment. In order to boost employment by building the bridge, the government must not currently raise taxes to pay for it -- it must borrow the money instead, and pay it back over time, as the economy improves. In order to increase employment, the government deficit must (temporarily) increase.

3. The third key thing about this basic first-order Keynesian story is that it does not matter how the government increases its deficit in order to boost employment. There are important second-order stories that you can tell about how some things the government can do to increase its deficit are better at boosting the economy than others, a matter to which we return below. But the basic story is that the government must increase its deficit, whether by increasing spending without raising taxes, or by cutting taxes without reducing spending, or both.

Now, it's certainly true that if the government is currently employing people making bombs to drop on other people's countries, and the government now decides it doesn't want to purchase as many bombs to drop on other people's countries, that's going to reduce the number of people employed by the government in making bombs to drop on other people's countries.

But just as the government cannot increase employment by building a bridge when the economy is at full employment, the government cannot increase employment by building bombs when the economy is at full employment. Likewise, if the economy is at full employment, then the government cannot decrease employment by building fewer bombs. If the economy is at full employment, the people who were making bombs will go do something else (build bridges, perhaps.) There is no long-term argument for government spending to boost aggregate employment, valid for all seasons of the business cycle. There is only a short-term argument for government deficit spending to boost employment when the economy is in an employment recession. Moreover, in the basic, first-order story, all government deficit spending is equal in terms of its impact on employment, so while, if the economy is in recession, in the short run having people make fewer bombs can reduce employment, there is no reason to expect cutting military spending to have any greater effect in reducing employment than any other measure which has the effect of reducing the government deficit, such as cutting domestic spending or raising taxes.

Therefore, in the first order story, an argument against cutting military spending on the grounds that it will reduce employment in the short run if the economy is in recession is equally an argument against any form of deficit reduction at all, including by raising taxes or cutting domestic spending -- dollar for dollar, in the first order story, cutting domestic spending or raising taxes will reduce employment just as much in the short run, and in the long run, there is no employment story at all, because the government-spending-to-increase-employment story is a short-run story, not a long run story, relevant to the situation when the economy is at less than full employment, not relevant otherwise.

Therefore, if the context of debate is a decision to reduce government deficit spending by a fixed amount over ten years (which is what the Super Congress is supposed to do), then the jobs argument against military cuts is total nonsense, because 1) the jobs argument is a short-run story, not a long-run story, and 2) over the short run, in the first order story, every other means of reducing the deficit, including raising taxes and cutting domestic spending, will reduce employment as much as cutting military spending.

So, an honest person who wants to argue in the current political context that cutting military spending is a bad idea because it will reduce employment in the short run must argue a second-order effect: they must claim that government deficit spending on the military is more efficient than other forms of government deficit spending being considered in boosting employment.

I doubt we will find anyone trying to argue this, because the data points the other way: compared to other forms of government deficit spending, government deficit spending on the military is less efficient at boosting employment.

In a 2007 paper ("The U.S. Employment Effects of Military and Domestic Spending Priorities "), Robert Pollin and Heidi Garrett-Peltier examined this issue. They compared the estimated effects of a $1 billion increase in spending across several sectors and established the following ranking of efficiency in terms of job creation per dollar: mass transit, education, health care, construction, tax cuts for personal consumption, military. Military spending came in last.

This shouldn't be surprising. One obvious reason why military spending is an inefficient means of job creation is "leakage" from the U.S. economy. Much of military spending takes place outside of the United States, so it's not boosting U.S. employment. Occupying Afghanistan and Iraq and bombing Pakistan and Libya don't do as much to boost U.S. employment as keeping our people employed at home. Keeping troops in Germany and Japan doesn't do as much to boost employment as keeping people employed at home. The military is consuming a lot of goods and services not produced in the U.S.

So, the jobs argument against military cuts is nonsense because:

1. any jobs argument only makes sense over the short-term, when the economy is in employment recession, not over the long term

2. in the first order story, cutting military spending has the same effect on employment as any other means of deficit reduction, including raising taxes or cutting domestic spending

3. when you compare different means of government deficit spending to boost employment, military spending is the among the least efficient in terms of boosting employment , and that means that when you compare the employment costs of different means of reducing the deficit, cutting military spending is among the least costly in terms of employment.

A final note: it has long been true in an economic sense that military spending was less efficient than other forms of government spending in terms of boosting employment. But in the United States, ever since the Second World War, there has been an important political caveat to this economic fact. A political-economic culture was created sometimes called "Military Keynesianism" in which government spending to boost domestic production and consumption was often tarred as "liberal," even "socialist," whereas government spending to boost military production was labeled "national security" so that was beyond question. Thus, as a practical political matter, there wasn't a one-to-one choice between military spending and domestic spending, because military spending was politically favored by elites and domestic spending for human needs was politically opposed by elites.

Most of us have lived within this ideological system our whole lives, so it's kind of hard for us to imagine anything different. Within this ideological system, military spending to boost employment made a kind of sense, even though it was inefficient, because other kinds of spending weren't allowed. People became habituated to the idea that there was no point to try to cut military spending, because we wouldn't be allowed to use the savings for domestic spending on stuff we want anyway.

But the dynamics of the debt debate in Washington have created a fundamentally different ball game than the one we have known for the last 50 years. Now, the choices are: cut military spending or cut Social Security benefits and raise the Medicare retirement age. Now it is one for one: guns or butter. There is a fixed target for deficit reduction. Every dollar that is not taken out of the military budget will be taken out of the economy in some other way, and many of the alternatives on the table -- such as cutting Social Security benefits or raising the Medicare retirement age -- are things that most Americans are going to vigorously oppose.

 

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06:05 PM on 08/17/2011
An article in Foreign Policy that compliments and extends the ideas in the present article.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/16/the_empire_at_dusk?page=0,0
12:45 PM on 08/17/2011
For all those that think we need to spend tax dollars for war let them take to the poppy fields there is alots of money there. A new twist to the war on drugs : >
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
tnlcallen
12:22 PM on 08/17/2011
You lost me when you mentioned Keynesian economics. We don't need any help from the Keynestone Kops.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
RobertNaiman
Policy Director at Just Foreign Policy
12:57 PM on 08/17/2011
OK, but as another commenter noted: anyone who says that we can't cut projected military spending because that would cost American jobs is implicitly invoking Keynesian economics. So long as you support cutting projected military spending, then I don't care what you think about Keynesian economics.
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PalaceOfWisdom
Want gun control? End the MIC
10:54 AM on 08/17/2011
While I accept the underlying premise on deficit spending and why it spurs employment, the flip side has a massive exception.

It's true that taxing that deficit spending right back out of the economy would negate it, but only if the tax dollars collected were actually cycling through the economy, keeping it turning. In the case of the immense cash the rich have siphoned out of the economy and continue to sit on, extracting some of that ill-gotten cash and cycling it back into the economy through government spending makes perfect sense.

If we then go through the complex task of assessing the social value of spending on useful things like repairing bridges so we can get to work rather than blowing things up, it becomes clear to any reasonable person that taxing the rich, ending our wars of choice, and modernizing our infrastructure are all positive steps toward strengthening our economy. Sadly, special interests own our government and the majority of Americans buy into empty talking points from Republicans and endless excuses from Democrats for their inaction.
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Peddler
Peddler of Information
10:37 AM on 08/17/2011
I would say-------go and cut military spending-------and you will see exactly what happens to the economy! When is the last time a poor person offered you a job?
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ez14livin
11:10 AM on 08/17/2011
let's do it.. because you know what i think? the greedy mofos running the private companies making obscene profits from the MIC will simply find another way to scam their way into fortune.

but at least it won't be by contributing to the US war machine

cutting the military cannot be any worse than the ryan budget plan or any other "ideas" coming from any conservative "think tank"
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heron77
Drive on the right
09:44 AM on 08/17/2011
So if military spending won't affect jobs, then why is Obama pushing for more infrastructure spending to create jobs? Both are government spending. Sorry, something here stretches logic.
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Kristopher Leang
training to take down the elite
12:28 PM on 08/17/2011
arguably infrastructure jobs help the economy in general, somehow building/ maintaining roads and building buildings helps. whole a military can not ever offer monetary "value".unless you talka bout the US using thiers to enforce thier will and steal oil. the military cannot help the economy other than the fact its providing jobs. a government job, that offers no real service since the cold war than as a way to bully other nations.slaves of the elite
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heron77
Drive on the right
01:06 PM on 08/17/2011
So we should allow the terrorists have their way and blow up buildings and kill Americans in our cities? Or allow them to board our airliners and kill 300 passengers? No war has ever been won using just defensive methods. We have to go where they are trained, destroy their camps and kill their leaders or get them to surrender.
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RobertNaiman
Policy Director at Just Foreign Policy
12:55 PM on 08/17/2011
Allocating money to the military, *rather than other uses*, will not increase employment. If the choices were: increase the deficit by spending more money on the military, versus do nothing, then the former would increase employment. But those are not the choices on the menu. Projected deficits are going to be cut. The question is how. Cutting projected military spending will cut employment less than other means of cutting the deficit.
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heron77
Drive on the right
04:51 PM on 08/17/2011
It may be that cutting expenses across the board will not cause unemployment overall, but may actually increase it. One of the issues now is that the economy is floundering because of the deficit and debt. If we conservatives are right, the economy will begin to recover as the confidence level increases over the attention to government finances.

The issue then will be the loss of specific jobs because of the spending reduction be matched or exceeded by other jobs as the economy improves.
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FoonTheElder
Always choosing between the lesser of two evils
09:39 AM on 08/17/2011
Military spending has little velocity through the economy. You make a bomb, it sits there unproductive until it gets used. If it doesn't get used, you eventually have to destroy it. You build infrastructure so that many industries can use it to their advantage and efficiency, creating a large cost multiplier effect. Also, spending to keep troops at 900 bases throughout the world, adds practically nothing to the U.S. economy.
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Kristopher Leang
training to take down the elite
12:31 PM on 08/17/2011
exactly what i tried to explain, although much less eloquently to the person above. amazing people cnat work this out in 2 seconds of logical thought in thier own little brain... and this isnt subjective, this is fact. a military adds no value to the economy infrastructure jobs do. Some people read a whole article and still can't work this out.. no wonder our world is soo messed up
09:32 AM on 08/17/2011
You cannot fill a swimming pool by taking water from the deep end and pouring it into the shallow end.

If war creates jobs, we should currently be running a 2% unemployment rate considering the trillions of dollars spent on war, first by the bloodthirsty pro-lifers and then, regrettably, by the peace-loving Democrats.

Yes, war creates war-jobs, but the economy as a whole suffers a net job loss. Hence the reason we have such an overwhelming and persistently high unemployment rate despise a decade of record budget deficits driven by war spending. The war profiteers are doing fine. For the rest, life sucks.

Now, stop the wars, cut the size of government in half and follow the Singaporean formula for economic growth: government spending limited to 12.5% of GDP = 9% p.a. growth over 44 years. Here's a sweetener to attract the attention of the big spending politicians. The highest paid politicians in the world are in Singapore.
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d julien
11:31 AM on 08/17/2011
I wouldn't use Singapore as an example . In Singapore one can be executed for possessing pot....
04:30 PM on 08/17/2011
I'm talking about their economic miracle, not their human rights record. The two are unrelated, but thanks for the response.
09:29 AM on 08/17/2011
America the beautiful militarised oligarchy.
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wbearl
Retired Manager Mechanical Operations
09:03 AM on 08/17/2011
The wasteful military spending didn't start with MIC Contractors or Mercenaries, they are but the latest addition. When I first went into the military, to see a civilian on any base was almost novel. The GI did all of the Public Works, clean, food preparations and so on. Today a Military Person can't do any of those things because to do so would result in a Union Grievance filled by the Civil Service Employee's Union. This transition started during the Vietnam War, but today it is ridicules. We use to repair, even over haul Military Equipment in the field, today it's shipped thousands of miles to Civilian Shops for heavy repairs. Go into a mess hall and you will see 98% of the workers are civilians. I have seen too many Civil Service Employees do no work in a 40 hour week, none, zero, zip. Yet, if I got tired of waiting for them to do some and did it myself, a time claim would be filled. I actually watch one Civil Service Employee spend his whole day running his out side construction business from his Government desk, did no Government work and no one said a word. Any military person could show the Government thousands of ways to save money, but Washington DC is afraid of the powerful Civil Service Employee's Unions.
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Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
08:37 AM on 08/17/2011
'In the current political context, this "jobs" argument is 100% nonsense.'

There's one reason and one reason only that it's nonsense: The US military doesn't exist to provide jobs. The US military exists to defend the United States of America. That's its constitutional mandate. Job creation or retention is not its constitutional mandate.

The jobs created thereby are a side effect. If the military becomes an excuse to 'create jobs' then it is being abused. The abusers should be arrested, charged with receiving stolen goods and/or racketeering, tried, convicted, sentenced, and punished.

The punishment should be swift, severe, public, comprehensive, and ineluctable. It should include forfeiture of all the guilty parties' assets to compensate the tax payers and inernment in work camps. The guilty should be set to hard labour until they've repaid each and every tax payer whose money they've stolen. Moreover, it should expose the guilty parties to intense, prolongued public obloquy enduring in perpetuity. All this should encourage the others who are thinking of copying their crimes.
10:53 AM on 08/17/2011
Sounds like you are describing "war profiteering". I think war profiteering has become an accepted business model, they gave it a new name of course "contracted services".
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Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
05:58 AM on 08/18/2011
I admit, I had to think about whether what I'm trying to describe could be defined as 'war profiteering' in the dictionary sense. Merriam-Webster's 11th Collegiate Dictionary describes profiteer as

: one who makes what is considered an unreasonable profit especially on the sale of essential goods during times of emergency

Presumably then a war profiteer would be one who makes what is considered an unreasonable profit especially on the sale of essential goods during times of war.

That's not exactly what I was referring to in my post. What I'm condemning is not government employees paying a lot of tax money to a provider for something that's essential to defend the United States of America. I'm condemning government employees for paying any amount of tax money to any provider of anything not essential to defend the United States of America. In my original post, that non-essential anything is jobs (i.e. labour) that are not essential to defend the United States of America.

There's also the scenario of government employees paying a lot of tax money to a provider of something that is essential to defend the United States of America when they could have paid less to some other provider for exactly the same something. Although that wasn't the focus of my original post, I condemn it as strongly as I condemn government employees' paying a lot of tax money to providers of non-essential labour. It's just plain graft, and it has to stop.
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08:18 AM on 08/17/2011
Get ready to hear an onslaught of twisted, flag waving rhetoric
about " Money For Our Troops"

They still can't explain where the last $3 Trillion has gone to
and defiantly tell us the Pentagon can not be audited.

They want to cut oversight telling us government is too big,
while deliberately making sure there are never enough people
to follow where all the money is going.

We see endless, shameful, blatant fraud and abuse of these taxpayer funds.

We now have a massive, bloated workforce of taxpayer funded
private MIC contractors, agency personnel & mercenaries who have become
hopelessly addicted to the continuation of unbridled and unaccountable
taxpayer funding.

They would rather see cuts to the elderly and the needy,
education, food security, anything but cuts to their favorite cash cow.

While we may still need the best and the brightest, we all know
that most of what we are paying for is Taxpayer Funded Job Security
going to Private For Profit Corporations.
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rozalindb
What's happened to us??
09:22 AM on 08/17/2011
Agreed. F&F.
10:51 PM on 08/18/2011
Brilliant! Excellent critique. Addiction is an apt comparison. And your point about taxpayer-funded job security is so true. The fact that our (my) taxes are going to the profit margins of overpaid executives is the worst kind of transfer of wealth. It's just obscene.
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keiserz
Bueno...
08:15 AM on 08/17/2011
Lobbyist are the problem and should be banned.
07:13 AM on 08/17/2011
The game is rigged. We have already fallen for the old trick of misdirection here. We have already assumed the "automatic cuts" are the worst-case scenario. But those cuts amount to only about 15% of 2010 spending each year.

But, annual military spending rose by about 80% from 2001 to 2010, inflation-adjusted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PerCapitaInflationAdjustedDefenseSpending.PNG

So even after ten years of the "worst case scenario", we will still be spending far more every year on the military than in 2001.

So, while we battle mightily, arguing about the details, we have already lost the war.
09:25 AM on 08/17/2011
I suppose very few people know that.
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heron77
Drive on the right
09:47 AM on 08/17/2011
Maybe because we had two wars and are still in one? Wars are always expensive. The most expensive was WWII. If we didn't have these crazy terrorists and dictators trying to kill Americans, we could save a lot of money.
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mikey09
Living off the grid.
10:11 AM on 08/17/2011
Yes, WWII was very expensive and we used the 1950's tax rate to pay down that debt, but remember in the 1950's we had a MUCH, MUCH smaller government and very few entitlement programs, so the tax revenue could be applied to the debt....
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ez14livin
10:18 AM on 08/17/2011
wars are expensive...

which is why GWB gave tax cuts and told us to go shopping

and the terrorists are trying to kill us why? (i'll give you a hint: do you even have any idea how many wars have been fought off the books? how many local uprisings have been quashed by the US military to make places like indonesia safe for nike?)

could it be that this country has been an international hypocrite for so many years (who funded the taliban to fight russia and then left them high and dry)? of course you won't get that story from any US media outlet. there is no room after the big bold font proclaiming USA #1

the dictators to fear are any of the GOP candidates currently stumping in the land of bumpkins
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Donald Fannin
provocatuer
07:04 AM on 08/17/2011
Rather confusing isn't it?