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Robert Pozen

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Social Security Reform Is the Key to the Debt Ceiling Debate

Posted: 07/19/11 08:31 PM ET

To finance the U.S. government until after the 2012 elections, Congress must raise the U.S. debt ceiling by roughly $2.4 trillion. Many members of Congress will not support such an increase in the debt ceiling without a similar decrease in long-term federal spending.

There are only three potential sources for trillion-dollar reductions in federal spending: Defense, Medicare and Social Security. The Obama administration has proposed a $400-billion reduction in Defense, making it hard to squeeze anything further from the DoD.

Medicare is the largest potential source of federal savings, but it presents the most difficult political challenge. Because Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on whether Medicare should be a public or private insurance program, a trillion-dollar agreement on Medicare cuts seems unlikely.

Thus, Social Security reform is the best candidate for a significant decrease in long-term federal spending. Recently, President Obama has put Social Security reform on the table, even if it alienates the left wing of his party. AARP has also recognized that benefit reductions may be needed in order to prevent insolvency of the system in 2037 -- which would force automatic benefit cuts of roughly 25 percent.

To make Social Security reform politically viable, Congress needs to package it with measures that attract middle-class voters by helping them save for retirement. Most proposals for reforming Social Security preserve the current benefit schedule for low-wage earners and limit the growth of benefits for high-wage earners. While these two aspects of reform seem to be politically acceptable, the challenge is replacing any benefit reductions for middle-class workers with average annual wages (not income) between $30,000 and $85,000.

To deal with this political challenge, Congress should offer a government match to retirement contributions by workers in this middle-wage range. Specifically, Congress should adopt the Obama administration's 2010 proposal for an enhanced Saver's Credit, which would match the first $500 in contributions to a retirement plan at a rate of 50 percent for eligible workers. Workers eligible for the full match would include couples with adjusted gross incomes of $65,000 per year or less ($32,500 for singles), with lower matches available to couples with adjusted gross incomes up to $85,000 per year ($42,500 for singles).

The value of this federal match, conservatively invested over a long career, would partially offset the proposed reductions in scheduled Social Security benefits for the median worker. Suppose a married worker at age 30 receives the median U.S. wage of $37,000 per year and contributes $500 each year to an IRA until he retires at age 66. His contribution attracts a federal match of $250 each year.

If this $250 annual match were invested in a balanced fund -- half in long-term government bonds and half in an S&P 500 index -- with a real return averaging 5.8 percent per year, the total value of this match would be $30,150 at his retirement. With that sum at a 5.8-percent interest rate, he could buy a fixed annuity with monthly payments of $255 for the rest of his life.

These annuity payments from the Savers' Credit would make up most of the modest benefit reductions for middle-class retires in the future -- reductions likely needed to make Social Security solvent. For example, actuaries estimate that the scheduled monthly benefits of the median worker retiring in 2045 would be reduced by approximately 16 percent, or $290, under my progressive indexing plan. That $290 reduction would be largely offset by the $255 supplemental retirement benefit from the lifetime annuity funded entirely by the federal match. As a result, the total monthly payments of this median worker would be roughly the same as the current benefit schedule. If you consider that the credit may have induced this worker to save on his own, he is likely doing just as well, or better, than without these policies.

It bears emphasis that this federal match would come entirely from the Congressional appropriations process and would not divert any monies from the Social Security Trust Fund. If this federal match is the political "sweetener" to help enact Social Security reform, Congress should estimate the cost of the match over the next 75 years -- the standard period for measuring Social Security's deficit. Assuming that the cost of federal match grows at a rate of 3 percent per year, its 75-year cost would be approximately $850 billion.

But this is a small price to pay to facilitate the passage of Social Security reform. Without such reform, Congress would have to appropriate more than $13 trillion over the next 75 years to make up the shortfall between the estimated revenues and annual obligations of Social Security.

In short, Congress should combine a generous Savers Credit with a progressive plan to eliminate the long-term deficit of Social Security. That combination would mitigate the political perils of adopting such a plan by making up a significant portion of any middle-class benefit reduction involved with restoring Social Security to solvency. Of the many tough choices facing Mr. Obama and both parties in Congress, this combination of policies may be the most politically feasible way to make a big dent in the long-term federal deficit.

 
 
 
To finance the U.S. government until after the 2012 elections, Congress must raise the U.S. debt ceiling by roughly $2.4 trillion. Many members of Congress will not support such an increase in the deb...
To finance the U.S. government until after the 2012 elections, Congress must raise the U.S. debt ceiling by roughly $2.4 trillion. Many members of Congress will not support such an increase in the deb...
 
 
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07:49 PM on 07/27/2011
I paid cash for my Social Security Insurance! Just because they 'borrowed' my money, doesn't make my benefits some kind of charity or handout! Congressional benefits like free health care, outrageous retirement packages, 67 paid holidays, three weeks paid vacation, unlimited paid sick days: now that's welfare; and they have the nerve to call my paid retirement entitlements!

Someone please tell me what is wrong with all the people that run this country!

We're broke and can't help our Seniors, Veterans, Orphans, Homeless etc.?

In recent months we have provided aid to Haiti, Chile, Pakistan and others literally BILLIONS of DOLLARS!

Our retired seniors living on a fixed incomes receive no aid nor do they get any breaks nor cost of living increases for years while our government gives Hundreds of Billions to Foreign Countries!

They call Social Security and Medicare entitlements even though most of us have been paying for them all our working lives. And now, when its time for us to collect, the Government is running out of money. Why did the Government 'borrow' from our Social Security in the first place?

We have many adoptable children who are shoved aside to make room for the adoption of foreign orphans.

AMERICA: a country where we have homeless without shelter, children going to bed hungry, elderly going without needed medication, mentally ill going without treatment, etc.

Imagine if our Government gave us the same support they give the people who hate us.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
olerealist
retired trial attorney; former member of VA abd Wa
10:50 AM on 07/21/2011
SOCIAL SECURITY AND PARTISAN SPLIT

Is SS really a problem ? Not much in the short term but huge in the long term.

Republicans want to throw out the baby with the bathwater and Dem’s want to keep both, not touch SS at all. They are both wrong.

It is too easy to forget that SS has two sides of its ledger, one side income and the other side outgo. There may be some merit to the assertion of some that fixing the income side alone is sufficient. Repub’s assert that what is needed is severe reduction in the benefits.

To the contrary, it appears to me that the sensible thing is to look at both sides of the ledger. The ABOVE ARTICLE appears to espouse a rather complicated fix but it certainly does suggest that there are some balanced fixes out there on the drawing board.

On the cost cutting side, I see a kind of knee jerk reaction of many Dem’s to attack the proposal to “modify” the COLA in any way whatsoever. I disagree. The the recent COLA proposals must be examined ON THE MERITS!. As a person rather poorly informed on the intricacies, i am cautious on opining, but I see enough to suggest that logic and statistics might show the the current formula is skewed toward COLA being too generous. If that is indeed the case, I say fix it. We are looking at literally billions of dollars saved.
hawhite2000
...for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee
01:25 AM on 07/21/2011
Are business school graduates required to take an ethics class? I know I had to take one as an engineering student.

Social Security funds should pay for social security and nothing else. There should be no means testing, as that would turn social security into welfare and we know what happens everytime the government needs more revenue, they want to cut welfare.
05:21 AM on 07/21/2011
X2
12:35 AM on 07/21/2011
If the Govt. would STOP borrowing from the SS Fund you would see that there is plenty of money in the kitty.

TIME TO PAY BACK THE BORROWED DOUGH AND PUT IT IN A LOCKBOX.

SS can sustain itself very well - keep the sticky fingers out of the pot.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Jim Worth
12:31 AM on 07/21/2011
Robert,

Interesting concept, but there are many other ways to fix Social Security to ensure its solvency for at least 75 years and it doesn't require another partially government supported private plan requiring a hard-working American to pull $500 more out of their monthly pay.

There are two articles I've written on the subject which I feel would interest you, the readers, and the commenters here. One is posted here on Huffington Post. They are entitled, "Our Social Net Is Not An Entitlement," and "America's Retirement Insecurity."

http://02d30f6.netsolhost.com/blog1/?p=2725
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jim-worth/americas-retirement-insec_b_863838.html

We have fiscal problems that must be solved, but dismissing the fact that the U.S. Government owes Social Security $2.7 trillion dollars and minor adjustments to the program will make it solvent is not the way to do it.

Let's find some more immediate solutions to lower the current deficit.

Jim
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
knott wrench
07:38 PM on 07/20/2011
Ooops, forgot.

Social Security Reform:

NO MEMBER OF CONGRESS Should be able to Collect a Dime!

Including former Pres. Candidate John McCain.

When he Retires from Congress, he can go drive a Beer truck for his Wife's business, if he need "Gas Money" besides his Congressional and Military Pensions.
05:13 PM on 07/20/2011
Well, this is why "progressive" as a descriptor needs to be thrown away.
The DC politicos have drug the term through the mud.

"In short, Congress should combine a generous Savers Credit with a progressive plan to eliminate the long-term deficit of Social Security."
04:51 PM on 07/20/2011
All you folks touting the social security trust fund have been duped. It doesn't exist. Last year social security benefits paid out exceeded revenues. The "trust fund" is a bunch of IOU's in a file cabinet in West VA. It was spent years ago. Any benefits in excess of current SS payroll revenues has to be borrowed. If there still is a trust fund, why would Obama not send out SS checks if the debt ceiling were not raised.
05:10 PM on 07/20/2011
Or the dupe is trying to keep folks from waking up to the fact that people of the USA are one of this countries biggest creditors.
05:13 PM on 07/20/2011
correction: "country's"
05:27 AM on 07/21/2011
Try something else.
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goatini
We are two-legged wombs, that’s all
04:36 PM on 07/20/2011
Gee, let's have popular financial advisor Suze Orman give her $.02 on annuities:

“I hate them with a passion – a passion! – especially in a retirement account like an IRA. Variable annuities have all these extra fees and tax issues and penalties, but – oh, that’s okay! – because they give you a tax deferral. But a retirement account is already tax-deferred without all those fees. It’s absolutely ridiculous. I think variable annuities exist for one reason only: to make money for the financial advisers who sell them.”
04:45 AM on 07/21/2011
Great post. Love Suze!
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General Washington
In the future, I return as Geddy Lee
04:17 PM on 07/20/2011
By the way, I haven't noticed anyone directly addressing this little tidbit:

"The Obama administration has proposed a $400-billion reduction in Defense, making it hard to squeeze anything further from the DoD."

That's $40 billion per year.

$40 billion per year out of a strictly defined Department of Defense budget of about $750 billion per year. That's not including the other $450 billion per year for other, related national security expenditures that end up going through the Pentagon at some point.

Is it really that hard to squeeze anything further from the DoD?
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General Washington
In the future, I return as Geddy Lee
04:14 PM on 07/20/2011
Ah, another fund manager telling us we need to sacrifice Social Security, AND put more money into... wait for it... an investment fund!

Perfect.
frommars
why bother
04:00 PM on 07/20/2011
Horse shite. That $250 per year from the gov will do little for me. I am 53 yrs old. I can still do math even at my "old" age. I have been paying into the system all my life and I expect what has been promised. It is ridiculous to suddenly in 2011, decide we have a deficit crisis, take the money from SS and Medicare rather than increase taxes, close tax loopholes, reduce Congressional pay 50%, eliminate their healthcare plan and retirement. I didn't even mention military spending reductions which are truely the cash cow. This guy is a talking head for big money only.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cheryl tobin
Alpha Dog with my pack!
04:17 PM on 07/20/2011
Social Security and the social security trust fund has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit but the lies continue and they get published to try and confuse people!
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
D-V-H
I am a Damn Liberal
03:37 PM on 07/20/2011
Just stop politicians from stealing money out of the Social Security trust fund.
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03:32 PM on 07/20/2011
Of course the solution is cutting in Social Security, that is the only way to solve the American financial problems. At least as long as you think the USA has any Social Security. Some people like this Emeritus, think the USA has the best and most expensive Social Security System in the world.
Well Emeritus, use the time you have in visiting Scandinavia and the countries up to 2500 km south of these nice countries. Go and study and, discver the benefits that Social Security brings to a whole nation. You might better try to find the solution fo the overspending, in HONEST taxing and shrinking your Military, Justice and Jailsystem.
02:56 PM on 07/20/2011
This is pure canard. Social Security is solvent, it does not contribute to the deficit and if corrupt politicians like Klinton would stop "borrowing" from the fund there would be no problem for many decades.