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Robert Reich

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A Question of Timing: What America Can Learn From the Revolt in Europe

Posted: 05/07/2012 12:14 pm

Who's an economy for? Voters in France and Greece have made it clear it's not for the bond traders.

Referring to his own electoral woes, Prime Minister David Cameron wrote Monday in an article in the conservative Daily Telegraph: "When people think about the economy they don't see it through the dry numbers of the deficit figures, trade balances or inflation forecasts -- but instead the things that make the difference between a life that's worth living and a daily grind that drags them down."

Cameron, whose own economic policies have worsened the daily grind dragging down most Brits, may be sobered by what happened over the weekend in France and Greece -- as well as his own poll numbers. Britain's conservatives have been taking a beating.

In truth, the choice isn't simply between budget-cutting austerity, on the one hand, and growth and jobs on the other.

It's really a question of timing. And it's the same issue on this side of the pond. If government slices spending too early, when unemployment is high and growth is slowing, it makes the debt situation far worse.

That's because public spending is a critical component of total demand. If demand is already lagging, spending cuts further slow the economy -- and thereby increase the size of the public debt relative to the size of the overall economy.

You end up with the worst of both worlds -- a growing ratio of debt to the gross domestic product, coupled with high unemployment and a public that's furious about losing safety nets when they're most needed.

The proper sequence is for government to keep spending until jobs and growth are restored, and only then to take out the budget axe.

If Hollande's new government pushes Angela Merkel in this direction, he'll end up saving the euro and, ironically, the jobs of many conservative leaders throughout Europe -- including Merkel and Cameron.

But he also has an important audience in the United States, where Republicans are trying to sell a toxic blend of trickle-down supply-side economics (tax cuts on the rich and on corporations) and austerity for everyone else (government spending cuts). That's exactly the opposite of what's needed now.

Yes, America has a long-term budget deficit that's scary. So does Europe. But the first priority in America and in Europe must be growth and jobs. That means rejecting austerity economics for now, while at the same time demanding that corporations and the rich pay their fair share of the cost of keeping everyone else afloat.

President Obama and the Democrats should set a clear trigger -- say, 6 percent unemployment and two quarters of growth greater than 3 percent -- before whacking the budget deficit.

And they should set that trigger now, during the election, so the public can give them a mandate on Election Day to delay the "sequestration" cuts (now scheduled to begin next year) until that trigger is met.

ROBERT B. REICH, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century. He has written thirteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock" and "The Work of Nations." His latest is an e-book, "Beyond Outrage." He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine and chairman of Common Cause.

 
 
 

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Who's an economy for? Voters in France and Greece have made it clear it's not for the bond traders. Referring to his own electoral woes, Prime Minister David Cameron wrote Monday in an article in the...
Who's an economy for? Voters in France and Greece have made it clear it's not for the bond traders. Referring to his own electoral woes, Prime Minister David Cameron wrote Monday in an article in the...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
07:00 PM on 05/08/2012
The USA could re-industrialize to create new NATIONAL WEALTH that will be available for a portion to be CONFISCATED in the form of TAXATION by various levels of government in order to create funds to pay contractors to perform tax paid INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, rather than going deeper in debt by borrowing more and more money from the wealth creating BRIC nations to pay for existing and more additional government activities.

Re-industrialization would create new NATIONAL WEALTH (and new JOBS) that will be available for a portion to be CONFISCATED in the form of TAXATION by various levels of government in order to create funds to pay for taking care of those that cannot take care of themselves, building and operating schools, streets, water and sewer systems, repay sovereign national debts, pork barrel projects, green projects, wars, streets, bridges, highways, welfare, unemployment, police, courts, prisons, fire fighters, social security and other WEALTH CONSUMING government provided bureaucratic activities for that family, tribe, city, state, or nation, without borrowing money and obligating future tax collections from future generations to repay those loans (Treasury Bonds).
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
05:47 PM on 05/08/2012
I do not know why economists or anyone else could refer to or compare national (sovereign) debt as a percentage of Gross (National) Domestic Product (GDP) as having much importance.

This GDP has very little to do with the ability of a nation to repay their national debt especially if the majority of the GDP activity was US government borrowing money from wealth producing entities in the industrial nations and using that borrowed money to pay tax funded government employee payrolls, unemployment benefits, welfare, retirement pensions, infrastructure projects, providing free medical, housing, wars, social services, pork barrel projects, military contracts, and other tax funded activities that do not produce any new taxable NATIONAL WEALTH that the nation could confiscate and use to spend on government activities and repay the national debt?

CONFISCATING some of the NATIONAL WEALTH from the businesses that create that wealth and then spending that wealth for tax funded government activities does not produce any new taxable NATIONAL WEALTH that the nation could then confiscate and use to spend on government activities and/or to REPAY THE NATIONAL DEBT?

What if a lot of the GDP is spending funds for flipping hamburgers, cleaning houses, selling insurance, selling stocks and other newly printed financial products, selling investments, suing each other, and other activities that do not generate any additional NATIONAL WEALTH?
03:41 PM on 05/08/2012
Too bad austerity never happened in Europe. 23 of 27 EU nations last year INCREASED their budgets, and 24 of 27 will do the same this year.

Austerity?

Hardly. Stop the lies and propaganda.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
05:34 PM on 05/08/2012
You mean inflation and population growth don't happen? Wow.
06:19 PM on 05/08/2012
And apparently neither did austerity so they voted for a future depression instead. Brilliant!!!
06:48 PM on 05/08/2012
Population growth? Europe? What?

And these numbers use current dollars, so everything is adjusted for inflation. Right from the OECD.

Have fun in reality land!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lrobb
Gold Standard = four paws and a tail
01:25 PM on 05/08/2012
I have several questions for Dr. Reich.

1. What is an acceptable ratio of debt to GDP?

2. What is our current ratio of debt to GDP?

3. How much money are you talking as a stimulus?

4. How long do you think it will take to work?

5. What is your estimate of our debt to GDP ratio after your ideal stimulus?

6. What is your plan for lowering our debt after the stimulus works?

and last but far from least---

7. What is your realistic plan for getting such a stimulus enacted?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
06:57 PM on 05/08/2012
The GDP for each nation also reflects the cost of government activities that consume/destroy that nations NATIONAL WEALTH, in addition to the activities that generate/create NATIONAL WEALTH such when the mambers of that family perform one or more of the following tasks:

1. plant, grow and/or harvest something of commercial value from the earth;

2. extract something of commercial value from the earth;

3. manufacture something of commercial value that is consumable

4. construct a building that is permanently useful for rental income;

5. provide professional services (medical, legal, dental, engineering, architecture, land surveying, technology, accounting, etc.);

6. collect payment for patent and copyright uses;

and if they then trade, sell, lease or rent these items and/or services to parties outside of their family, in return for a net transfer of gold, currency or commodities from other parties outside of their family into their own family, then that family is enriched.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
07:04 PM on 05/08/2012
International Trade Balances are a better indication of a nations ability to repay their Sovereign issued Treasury bonds than debt/GDP ratios, etc.

International Trade Balances indicates that Brazil, Russia, India, China, (BRIC) nations, plus Pakistan, South Korea, and the other industrialized countries of the world with positive net foreign trade balances are NET CREATORS of NATIONAL WEALTH for their nations, and the de-industrialized USA and most of the European nations with negative net trade balances are NET CONSUMERS (DESTROYERS) of the existing NATIONAL WEALTH in their nations, whose citizens live “high on the hog” by continuously borrowing wealth from the industrialized countries to pay for government activities and also for imported consumer products.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
maximus5757
12:15 PM on 05/08/2012
Robert is wrong once again! Look what is happening to the stock market since France is going back to more Socialism-crashing like Obama is in the polls. Once people are on the dole and get used to it, they will revolt(the freeloaders that is) when the money runs out and they are told that their benefits are unsustainable-this is happening in parts of Europe. Right now in the US the top 10% pays 70.7% of all Federal Income taxes and the bottom 50% pays only 2.3% of all Federal Income Taxes collected. Yet the Left cries that the rich doesn't pay their fair share. Keep changing the rules and spending more and more money and business owners will never start hiring new employees because they don't know which new anti-business rule the Left will come up with next. This anti-business stance that the Left is pushing will bring them what they deserve- a place in the unemployment line.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
John Avena
02:04 PM on 05/08/2012
Ok dude!!! The rich should pay more.. They top 1% increased there wealth by 275% over the last 30 years while middle class only gained 60% and the poor 20%... They have rode this train way to long and need to go back to paying higher rates.. Under Reagan it was 70% under Eisenhower it was 90% tax rate.. They are crying like little school girls because we are asking them to pay 4% more than what they are paying now... 38.5%.. Not to mention the top 1% only paid 14% last year and we (middle class and poor) paid 30%... These so called job creators have had these tax cuts for 10 years now... Well where are the jobs??? As far as rules and regulations Obama made 6% less regulation than Bush did... Stop watching FOX News..
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maximus5757
02:46 PM on 05/08/2012
Tax Revenues are up above during Eisenhower and Reagan's time with rates lower, look at the IRS charts! Sorry you don't make as much money as you want and haven't been able to save any to build wealth, but that isn't any Rich person's fault-it is your own fault. The top 1% paid 37% of all Federal Income Taxes collected and the bottom 50% paid 2.3% of all Federal Income Taxes collected-you better do a little more reading before spouting off about things you know nothing about.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MoreFreedom
05:19 PM on 05/10/2012
Why should the rich pay more? If we all benefit from government, shouldn't we all pay the same amount of tax? Or is this a country where we redistribute the wealth from each according to his ability, to each according to his need? Or perhaps only those paying income tax should be able to vote since they are the ones paying for government?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
07:06 PM on 05/08/2012
Very Well Stated!
11:11 AM on 05/08/2012
I don't think many people really get the European financial crisis. Mr. Reich obviously doesn't. In Europe, those countries in the most serious trouble have high borrowing costs. Germany and other north European countries lent these countries money at much lower than market rates with promises that they would implement austerity and structural reforms to increase productivity. However, those countries did nothing. In fact, they increased their spending and things got worse. In fact Greece defaulted on 1/2 of their debt. So Germany and other northern European countries, whose debts are under control, agreed to lend more money at lower rates IF they implement structural reforms that will increase growth and IF there are hard assurances the lending countries make agreed reforms happen, or they will end the money train.

It would be like China telling us that they will not buy any more treasury bonds unless we cut our government spending. So when those countries elect socialists, its not going to help them, because the only people that can help, are not in those countries needing help. They have already run out of their own money.

If our treasury yields started to climb, we would be in the same boat. It would be a disaster. Our yields are unbelievably low. That's the only reason we can continue with our massive debt as % of GDP.
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MoreFreedom
05:22 PM on 05/10/2012
What they are doing, is planning on borrowing from those who have, then later give them the shaft, or borrow more from them since when they renege the creditor banks will be bankrupt and unable to return their depositor's money. The voters have shown they have no intention of paying back the loans, and I believe that's what will happen here as well.
10:55 AM on 05/08/2012
Your opening sentence says it all...

"Who's an economy for? Voters in France and Greece have made it clear it's not for the bond traders."

What that says to me is that you think it is ok for people to refuse their promises. The government and citizens promised to repay that money and adhere to the covenants of the bond. Where does it say they can reneg and screw the bondholders (other citizens) because it would cause their lifestyle to suffer?
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
05:37 PM on 05/08/2012
I think you need to look at the difference between the "bond traders" and "bond holders" and then revisit that idea.
06:29 PM on 05/08/2012
It means that they will be getting a downgrade soon.
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Si1ver1ock
the bread of wickedness, the wine of violence
09:42 AM on 05/08/2012
Keep in mind a few things.
1. The interest on US bonds is one of the largest budget components.(See Ellen Brown, Warren Mosler)
2. Tax wall street.
3. A Value Added Tax designed to function as a tariff.
4. Increase the Social Security Cap to 500k.

Basically, we need to re-jigger the tax code starting with a Wall Street Sales Tax.
10:57 AM on 05/08/2012
Ahh, tax the rich to pay for my stuff. That's what it says. Not enough money exists in the rich to cover a quarter of your current budget.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jamenta
There are other human values besides greed.
12:04 PM on 05/08/2012
Yeah, you might be right. But most of us Americans would like to see a few schools be rebuilt along with more teachers hired, some bridges refurbished, and some programs to help get unemployed Americans back to work - since the private sector right now only has 1 job available for every 4 unemployed Americans.

So - bave, why shouldn't we expect the rich to pay their fair share and contribute like we all do to bettering this country? Is it too much to ask those who have profited the most from this country to give back?

PS: Why do you turn a deliberate blind eye to the extreme wealth inequality we have in this country? How is the top 1% now controlling more wealth than 90% of all other Americans economically just??
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
maximus5757
12:02 PM on 05/08/2012
Wrong! The Class warfare and Wealth envy mantra, has only made Obama laughable since anyone with a brain realizes that it is only a diversion away from talking about Obama's dismal economic and jobs record. Corporate taxes are already so of the highest in the world and when the profits are actually distributed to shareholders(the People) they are taxed-why do you believe they should be taxed twice? Why increase the cap on Social Security(another redistribution of income) when there is a cap on benefits and the wealthy are less likely to receive benefits since they won't meet the caps on incomes. Stealing hard-earned money from productive to reward the unproductive hasn't ever worked in any society, tell us why you think it is such a great idea.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ekim gnitlon
01:23 PM on 05/08/2012
I know you do not understand this subject because you contradict yourself with faulty reasoning and very poor writing skills. Grade: D
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
09:25 AM on 05/08/2012
There's a distinction between when a law is passed and when it takes effect. We should pass deficit-reduction laws now, but have them begin to phase in after a couple years.
08:58 AM on 05/08/2012
One learning point is that most want deficit reduction so we don't leave huge debt, inflation or devalued currency to the next generation, unless it means that we have to pay more for unsustainable benefits and entailments today. Net I want my "free" ride.

I think most would buy into more spending in a downturn if the US had a surplus, wasn't run by special interests and the US was financially well managed and living within its means.

However, the current problems are in part caused by huge deficit spending (stimulus), on wars, entitlements, corruption, special interests and so on.

Previous deficit spending stimulus didn't drive huge growth that paid for the deficit. This is a global economy where non government organizations must compete globally for wages, products and price. Current policy only created bubbles of corruption like housing market. So why is more deficit spending and dropping the bill on future generations going to help?

The most interesting comments were lets have 2 solid quarters of growth before we attack the deficit and tax rich more. Nobody is going to let up on the accelerator to cut the deficit if things get better, there is no evidence that every happened. The math of taxing the rich doest close the deficit either.

So many people and companies are living off deficit spending there is no growth path to cut that off when normal commerce takes over. The only conclusion is to reset and live within means of new global realities.
08:50 AM on 05/08/2012
The real enemy of the world economy is the policies set forth by the Bildebergers. This group has been attempting to control Europe and the US economies since 1955. Isn't it about time that they are exposed for who they are and what they propose to do instead of blaming the mess on government policies? Swiss banks are the clearing house for all of their "dirty deed" i.e. bringing down Greece,IMF and World Bank policies,Bernanke, Geithner,Paulson ,Kissinger are all part of this group.
see http;//www.henrymakow..com/revelations http;//www.infowars.com
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
USAFree1
08:46 AM on 05/08/2012
The folks suffering the worst from austerity are those who did NOT cause the problem. Take a long hard look at Greece and France. It's the bankers stupid!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverstreet
All you need is love
09:52 AM on 05/08/2012
You can say that from now until Doomsday. Americans would rather blame the poor, the elderly, the sick, the young, teachers, nurses, all public service employees, and, especially, all those lazy unemployed people
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
07:28 PM on 05/08/2012
Maybe it is those nations not creating the things that they consume.

Maybe those nations are paying for everything by borrowing money from individuals in the industrialized nations instead of re-industrializing to create new NATIONAL WEALTH so that they can stop borrowing money to live.
08:26 AM on 05/08/2012
No society can exist for long when the political system is controlled by self serving corrupted individuals . Certainly enough to go around on both sides. We see those failures in Europe and it's been slowly drifting across the pond to infect our own society. There are positives and negatives to all sides of proposed economic "solutions" but until we have a political system that's rid of self serving corrupted individuals I'm afraid we're never going to change.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
04:32 PM on 05/08/2012
I have heard that Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh in 1887, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior, "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, and then is always followed by a dictatorship."
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
hmagbie
08:15 AM on 05/08/2012
The US is still recovering, we're out of recession, jobs have improved, unemployment is down, but prices are high and the price of energy threatens to derail our recovery. We all want lower gas and oil prices and we're about to get what we wish for. If the European electorate reject the austerity measures imposed on them , then the Euro will fall. Oil will fall soon after. Commodities will also fall soon after. We might enter a period of deflation. (Economist hate deflation but I love it!) Prices will fall to their real value, not one determined by predatory speculators in commodities.. It's great for everyone except the producers of products. The dollar will rise and that's not good for exports. After this carnage, it might be a good thought to re-access our global economic system and try to come up with a more sustainable and equitable model. More worker owned businesses and profit sharing should be paramount. Job creation, the reform of financing for homes and education, clean elections, and a return to Glass-Steagal should be quickly addressed. And all of this will be sparked by what happens in Europe today. The economic and political dominoes are falling; we will need to respond with intelligent plans to pick them up again. If we don't, another movement is afoot in Europe and America; far right xenophobia and racism. That also may be the legacy of Sunday's vote.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
03:35 PM on 05/08/2012
excellent post..spot on...FF: YES to Glass Steagal...and as for predatory speculators in commodities SEND them to the PILLORY:
(The pillory was a device made of a wooden or metal framework erected on a post, with holes for securing the head and hands, formerly used for punishment by public humiliation and often further physical abuse, sometimes lethal.[1] The pillory is related to the stocks)
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
08:07 AM on 05/08/2012
Maybe it is time to understand just how far the conservatives are willing to oppress the middle class and poor to gain wealth from the rich, in their world everything is opposite growth means depression , and recession to conservatives means growth. Maybe in a conservatives world they are walking around upside down who knows?