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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

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Back Toward Double-Dip

Posted: 06/ 3/11 09:37 AM ET

The May jobs report is a disaster -- the weakest reading since September. Non-farm payrolls grew only 54,000 last month, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private employment rose only 83,000 -- the smallest growth since last June. Government payrolls dropped 29,000.

The overall jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.

Together with plummeting housing prices, falling wages for non-supervisory workers, a paltry 1.8 percent growth in the first quarter, and a precipitous drop in consumer confidence, the picture should be clear to anyone able to see clearly.

The recovery has stalled.

We're not in a double-dip yet, but the odds are increasing.

The question is whether all this will wake up Washington, and stop the monumental distraction of the games being played over the debt ceiling and long-term budget deficit. The Republican lie that the nation's long-term budget deficit is responsible for high unemployment would be laughable if it weren't so tragically irrelevant to the current situation.

The President cannot be reelected if the economy tanks. He may not even be reelected on an anemic recovery in which unemployment remains nearly this high. But all incumbents are endangered. Republican House members from swing districts are toast if they don't show voters they're actively working on the twin problems of jobs and wages.

Several steps need to be taken right away. Exempt the first $20,000 of income from payroll taxes for two years. Lend money to cash-starved state and local governments. Initiate a new WPA for the long-term unemployed. Amend bankruptcy laws to allow homeowners to include their prime residencies in personal bankruptcy (giving them more bargaining leverage with their lenders to renegotiate mortgage loans).

Above all: Washington needs to show Americans it's taking seriously the ferocious problem of jobs and wages, and the trend back toward a double-dip.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich

 
 
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02:42 PM on 06/21/2011
"Lend money to cash-starved state and local governments." I disagree with this idea. We cannot just simply lend money to cash-starved state and local governments without strings attached that demands the cash be directly applied to jobs and startup business loans to "US born citizens" first. Without strings attached, cash-starved states could use the money to further enhance the wallets of weathly corporations in any number of ways. Trickle down does not work when foreign visa labor is here and illegal labor is here for the taking. Not to mention the EB-5 immigration fiasco and the building of "special economic zones" for foreign countries here in America. Not good for America!
06:43 PM on 06/16/2011
It's bad but trust me I am feeling it as well as my family . But the negative vibes are not making it better. This is not the first time in our history that the wall street cronies ,greedy bankers and the GOP have tried to crush the the working families of this great nation.
12:59 PM on 06/13/2011
When will we learn? (We the working middle class) must realize, neither party Dems nor the GOP is seeing life through our eyes. We the working class has to understand that we have the same goal in life to provide a decent life for our loved ones. The dems for one reason or another don't do enough to fight for the working men and women of america. The GOP has proven they really don't care about anyone at all except the money of big bussiness. ITS TIME ALL WORKING POEPLE UNITE!!!!!!
08:25 AM on 06/06/2011
We had shovel ready jobs and 75% of the money went to states to pay wages for a year. Not a fix a kick the can down the road a year. They bailed out car companies and now own them and other companies. They did not address the problems of the companies. They help people get new mortgage that they still could not pay. All the government did was stall what is going to happen. Time to take on the hard problem and deal with them not kick them down the road again.
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bd7769
I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.
09:15 AM on 06/06/2011
Very true, and now he is back on the campain trail telling everyone its still Bush's fault.
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biggerjake
Religion poisons everything...
01:17 AM on 06/07/2011
Duh!

IT IS STILL BUSH'S FAULT! http://www.cbpp.org/files/5-10-11bud.pdf

Print this chart, laminate it and put it on your refrigerator. For the next 20 years (maybe longer) the US will be paying the price for electing Ali Baba Bush and the 40 thieves.

Elections have consequences...sometimes dire consequences and yet there are still people who vote for the Republicans who are trying their best to destroy the country. Are they blind? Is it that they don't care? It's beyond me.
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Mr Universe
Can't stop the signal
07:42 PM on 06/08/2011
Bailout of auto companies worked. All three are now profitable thanks to your tax dollars and no longer owe the government anything. You're welcome.
09:49 PM on 06/05/2011
Rush Limbaugh and the conservatives want Pres. Obama to fail and they don't care if the whole US fails in the process. They want to ensure that the economy stays bad so Pres. Obama won't be re-elected, which is why they're not doing anything about job creation.
09:13 PM on 06/05/2011
All this talk about a double-dip, were we really out of the recession in the first place???, because so called experts said so doesn't mean it was true!!.
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cabinetmaniac
"Without a struggle, there can be no progress. "
09:46 AM on 06/06/2011
Technically a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

They have been pumping up the GDP by buying bonds and inflating commodities bubbles.

They have been able to keep us from technically negative growth but the reality in the real economy is that we have not recovered and there is a distinct possibility that we will not recover for a long time.

☮
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dscotese
Individual Sovereign
07:00 PM on 06/05/2011
We all know there is disagreement about our economic woes. Please help out New York's poor and encourage the disagreements to be resolved at The Point: http://www.thepoint.com/campaigns/campaign-0-1240
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LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
03:11 PM on 06/05/2011
We don't need another WPA. We need to fix our trade deficit by changing our trade policies. This will bring jobs back to our country and increase revenues that we can then use to fix up our infrastructure. Please go see the blogs posted here by Ian Fletcher: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher

People like Mr. Reich, while on the mark on many of our issues, seem to have their head in the sand when it comes to our failed experiment with so-called free trade.
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Jophoenix
11:57 PM on 06/05/2011
Thank you, for speaking the truth!! Ira Fleasher's " Free Tread Dosnt Work " is a must read for all of us, its written in understandable form and allows us a plantform for a real and ugernt change. In the meantime our waif- like leadership is the current face of American. Think about it.
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bd7769
I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.
09:16 AM on 06/06/2011
I agree, cancel NAFTA
02:37 PM on 06/05/2011
I am not interested in seeing Jimmy Carter #2 in there for another 4 years. how about can,t the US Federal gov just get real and come on TV and say up front that the gov is going bankrupt. Unless of course you want everybody with a 80% tax rate for the rest of their lives. How about that. Any takers? Face it socialism over the long term always fails.
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Jody Dobis
11:41 PM on 06/05/2011
Don't be so sure that modern capitalisium won't fail in the long run. By the way, how did you come up with the 80% tax rate? Why does every crisis encourage arguments and solutions to be either black or white? It isn't.
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cabinetmaniac
"Without a struggle, there can be no progress. "
09:47 AM on 06/06/2011
It is guaranteed to fail in the long run.

☮
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Jophoenix
12:01 AM on 06/06/2011
Jimmy Carter was and is a great man and everything he warned us about has become fact. I will not be voting for Obama again but not because he's " a Jimmy Carter "but because he's NOT.
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bd7769
I may not always be right, but I am never wrong.
09:19 AM on 06/06/2011
I agree Carter is a good man, he was the only president who was able to bring some level of peace to the middle east. His work on HfH after leaving office is note worthy.
He was the first president I ever voted for in my life, ever since it has always been the lessor of the two evils.
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Carl Brackin
02:07 PM on 06/05/2011
In my opinion, it is the Republicans and the other opponents of this administration that do not have any workable plans after allowing this Republic to get in all of the crisis conditions that were present before President Obama was elected.
The Republicans are trying to create a “miracle†while sticking together in preventing the Obama recovery policies from working. When the Obama policies have worked to prevent this Republic from falling into another great depression, the Republicans are playing the voters “like a fiddle†in trying to convince them that since our crisis conditions are not 100 per cent corrected, they are saying Obama is a complete failure.

The voters will have to decide who has done the best for the good of this country in preventing another “great depression†when the private fraudulent financial systems and the loss of manufacturing jobs created by the “global economy†caused the 2007 deep recession which cannot be corrected in the short time.
Are the Republicans trying to help with any recovery problems or make them worse? .It is the same Republican attitude during the 1929 great depression, go through another great depression, weaken this Republic farther while letting the people "fend" for themselves after they have helped the "capitalist" force the loss of jobs.
There is too much misinformation and untruths put out by the opponents of President Obama.
The voters have their work “cut out†for them in the 2012 elections if they are concerned..
04:14 PM on 06/05/2011
Republicans are trying to capitalize on the economic problems we face by blaming the current president who is a Democrat? In the words of the police captain from the movie, Casablanca, "I'm shocked!" While it is certainly true that presidents receive more blame than they deserve when the economy suffers and more credit than they deserve when it flourishes, it's difficult to engage in any pity party for President Obama and his party. It is true that, as a Conservative, I've been hugely disappointed in the timid response by the Republican presidential aspirants in terms of offering a clear plan. They seem simultaneously afraid to touch Paul Ryan's plan and afraid to present a proposal of their own. They're only comfortable taking verbal shots at President Obama. Not very "presidential" in my view. Of course, I view the response of Democrats to be even worse (they're both so bad we need a gigantic scale here). How many days has it been since the Democrat controlled Senate passed a budget? Is the number really getting close to 800? Mr. Reich recommends loaning money to "cash-starved state and local governments." How will such a policy discourage them from the kind of behavior that caused them to become cash-starved in the first place? When do we start letting bad decisions face the consequences?
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Carl Brackin
08:28 PM on 06/05/2011
Yes, there were choices to be made by the Democrats when they had the Majority and some of the "key" Democrats who must have been "lobbied" to by the special interest pf the US Chamber of Commerce and the Health care industry, making a farce out getting our manufacturing jobs back and a good/better healthcare insurance bill. Therefore, what should be our number one overall objective since the private enterprise systems have again let the Republic down causing the 2007 deep recession, putting the US on the verge of another great depression?
Yes, it would be good to teach the private financial systems a real lesson of what their "greed" brings on them. In the mean time what would the conditions of this Republic be like with an already $12.0 trillion dollars in National Debt, and with over an accumulated trade deficit of Trillions of Dollars with the private global corporate monopolies over a period of many years.
Now we hear that the corporations are lobbying to get the taxes reduced on this so they can bring it back into the US without any assurances of the money being invested to create private sector manufacturing jobs here.
Norm
Read think read analyze read comment
09:08 AM on 06/05/2011
I understand what is happening, but I am not sure I understand the surprise. Were we not told in 2008 that many jobs would never come back? Did recent escalations in gas prices not hint that a double dip could be anticipated?
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Carl Brackin
09:31 PM on 06/06/2011
Reply to Norm:
There should not be any surprises about what happened to our loss of manufacturing as our trade deficit with the global corporate monopolies increased.
Who are the people that keep telling us that our jobs will never come back? Are the same people who pushed for the free trade agreements, tell us that "new innovation" would replace the lost jobs here? What about the people in the low monetary value countries buying our manufactured goods? They do buy the goods, owned by the private global corporate monopolies which are made in other countries.than the US.
open2facts
because, sometimes, I'm wrong
08:36 AM on 06/05/2011
Washington--Get down to business! If our senators and congressmen and congresswomen were employees of a business, and had been tasked with resolving a problem or implementing a new project they'd have been fired by their boss for their ineptitude and inaction, various workplace discriminations and harrassments, and insubordination! Yet I hear so many folks suggest that the government be run like a business. ?? Borrow some money, raise some revenues and start massive infrastructure repair and modernization program, do something to put some people back to work!
02:07 AM on 06/05/2011
It is perfectly natural for US companies like GE to send work to China and India, and elsewhere where wages are lower but skills are high. This is not just Republican policy it is bipartisan.
In the long term it will even things out across the world. As China becomes wealthier they will send their jobs to Africa, Africa will become richer and so on. Surely this is not a bad thing?
The USA could improve conditions at home by reducing its military budget by 75% and bringing troops home from the 800 garrisons worldwide. America would still spend more than twice as much on war as China, and eight times as much as Russia.
When Hitler declared war on Britain and France America stood by and watched, and did not enter the war until over two years later when she was attached by Japan and Germany declared war. This left America the only nations still standing in 1945. Why is America today waging war against nations that have not attacked the USA, and could not attack the USA? It is America's insatiable appetite for war that is bringing her down.
09:00 AM on 06/05/2011
You make some very interesting and factually correct statements. I'd say you rather "nailed it" with your last sentence about America's insatiable appetite for war. I would just add to that our "insatiable appetite for appeasing greed" by continually failing to take action to correct the class war against the middle class that has been going on for 30 years.
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WFWS
Proud Liberal
11:28 AM on 06/05/2011
You are very correct that the trend toward outsourcing US jobs is bipartisan. And yes, its benefiting the rest of the world. In a very direct sense, those outsourcing policies are a form of foreign aid paid from the wallets of the US blue collar worker. Every dollar paid to a SE Asian worker is a dollar not paid to a US worker. But that's not all- the real benefactors are those multinational corporations who take the huge difference in wages as profit.
So while as you say that may not be such a bad thing, it certainly could have been done in a way that was FAIR to the US worker. As it is now, multinational corporations and the politicians that support them have accumulated huge stores of wealth, at the DIRECT EXPENSE of the US worker. Could this have been done more fairly, without decimating our manufacturing sector and subsequently our middle class? Yes, yes yes.
A few trade and currency policy changes would bring back many jobs to the US.
10:11 PM on 06/05/2011
Agreed proud liberal but I do not think that American Corporations or the Republicans have the slightest interest in being fair to the American worker, and the President goes along with them.
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PatrickforO
America needs a Labor Party
12:24 AM on 06/05/2011
If you haven't I highly recommend you read Reich's book Aftershock. Another good one is Krugman's Return to Depression Economics. Reich is once again right on the money. A brilliant economist with some real solutions that would work if we could only get away from the polarizing party-before-country rhetoric and get to down to the business of actually trying to solve the problems that beset us. And, folks, we aren't going to solve those problems by returning to the gold standard, forcing a balanced budget amendment, getting rid of all the New Deal safety nets, privatizing Medicare or Social Security. Reich is right - if we have a new WPA, this means the 6.8 million who have been unemployed over 27 weeks will, instead of collecting UI benefits while looking for nonexistant jobs, be working. They will take this money and spend it. This demand will keep people who might have been laid off at work, or cause business to hire more people. Yes, we are funding publicly, and are in the red, but doing so would ultimately stimulate job creation and growth. We could fix our infrastructure (see 2011 Civil Engineers Report Card for current state of this nation's and your own state's infrastructure), while at the same time keeping up demand. As the economy recovers, programs can be scaled back, and increased tax revenues from newly employed people will reduce the deficit. Oh, and quit spending $711 billion on the military every year...that would be good.
09:04 AM on 06/05/2011
Bingo!! Well stated. I would only add that we need a major correction in our tax system that squeezes the middle class and further enriches the already wealthy. What you say would help resusitate the economy in the short and long term. But without a major redistribution of wealth, we will again sink into a situation of weak overall demand and be back in the same place. We need "demand side" economics.
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PatrickforO
America needs a Labor Party
03:54 PM on 06/05/2011
Yes, that is the nail my post failed to hit on the head, which your reply has. Without the type of redistribution of wealth that happened as a result of the New Deal, and resulted in that period known as the Great Prosperity (roughly 1950 to 1975), we don't stand a chance of long term recovery. During the height of American prosperity, the top 1% took in between 10% and 13% of total earnings. But it was OK, because everyone was making money. Greed is short sighted, isn't it? By greedily insisting on taking in more and more of the earnings, until they exceeded 20%, the top echelon in this country is actually destabilizing the prosperous economy they say they want. You and I know they don't actually want that, though. What they want is for the few to enslave the many as has been done so many times in the past.
12:19 AM on 06/05/2011
Unfortunately the ideas of Mr. Reich, while valid, have no chance of passage with a republican controlled house. It seems to me that those who have the most to gain by an Obama loss are those who are best positioned to take advantage of the republican philosophy. I'm not an expert on the economy, and I admit I could be wrong, but there appears to be no incentive right now for banks to increase lending or business to increase hiring if they can keep the economy in the tank until the next election. As Robert Reich says, double-dip is looming....and Obama's re-election is tied to the economy in 2012
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PatrickforO
America needs a Labor Party
12:26 AM on 06/05/2011
Well, scaramouche, this is where we come in, isn't it? We cannot stand silent and allow the GOP to purposely keep the economy down so Obama can be voted out. Because that's exactly what's happening.
02:11 AM on 06/05/2011
The GOP will drive America into the ditch to defeat Obama. In a time of war this is treason. Unfortunately if the GOP wins in 2012 they will be unable to pull America out of the ditch because they are economic illiterates.
But if Obama wins he has shown that he is unwilling to fight GOP policies and he appears to have no policies of his own.
09:08 AM on 06/05/2011
Yes. You are right. However, thinking long term, how do the Republicans, if they take power, plan to improve the economy? By more tax cuts for the wealthy? That's a losing strategy. Will they cut Medicare and Medicaid and privatize Social Security?? If they try and do this, look for the "American Spring" in the streets of this country. The entire government will fall.