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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: June 2, 2010 07:08 PM

Friday's Job Numbers, and What They Won't Tell Us About America's Growing Anxious Class

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Last year was a fabulous one for entrepreneurs, at least according to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity released last month by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. "Rather than making history for its deep recession and record unemployment," the foundation reported, "2009 might instead be remembered as the year business startups reached their highest level in 14 years -- even exceeding the number of startups during the peak 1999-2000 technology boom."

Another surprise is the age of these new entrepreneurs. According to the report, most of the growth in startups was propelled by 35- to 44-year-olds, followed by people 55 to 64. Forget Internet whiz kids in their 20's. It's the gray-heads who are taking the reins of the new startup economy.

And if you thought minorities had been hit particularly hard by this awful recession, think again. According to the report, entrepreneurship increased more among African-Americans than among whites.

At first glance, all this seems a bit odd. Usually new businesses take off in good times when consumers are flush and banks are eager to lend. So why all this entrepreneurship last year?

In a word, unemployment. Booted off company payrolls, millions of Americans have had no choice but to try selling themselves. Another term for "entrepreneur" is "self-employed."

According to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the number of self-employed Americans rose to 8.9 million last December, up from 8.7 million a year earlier. Self-employment among those 55 to 64 rose to nearly two million, 5 percent higher than in 2008. Among people over 65, the ranks of the self-employed swelled 29 percent. Many older people who had expected to retire discovered their 401(k)'s had shrunk and their homes were worthless. So they became "entrepreneurs," too.

Maybe this is a good thing. A deep recession can be the mother of invention. These Americans are now liberated from the bureaucratic straitjackets they thought they had to wear. They can now fulfill their creative dreams and find their inner entrepreneurs. All they needed was a good kick in the pants.

But this upbeat interpretation doesn't include lots of people who don't particularly relish becoming their own employers, like an acquaintance whom I'll call George. George was an associate partner at one of the world's largest technology and consulting firms until he lost his job last year in a wave of layoffs. For months, George knocked on doors but got nowhere because of the deep recession.

Finally, his old firm got some new projects that required George's skills. But it didn't hire George back. Instead, it brought him back through a "contingent workforce company," essentially a temp agency, that's now contracting with George to do the work. In return, the agency is taking a chunk of George's hourly rate.

Technically, George is now his own boss. But he's doing exactly what he did before for less money, and he gets no benefits -- no health care, no 401(k) match, no sick leave, no paid vacation. Worse still, his income and hours are unpredictable even though his monthly bills still arrive with frightening regularity.

The nation's official rate of unemployment does not include George, nor anyone in this new wave of involuntary entrepreneurship.

Friday's job numbers are likely to show substantial gains but they'll still be small relative to the army of America's unemployed and underemployed -- and the growing number of anxiously self-employed.

Yet to think of the latter group as the innovative owners of startup businesses misses one of the most significant changes to have occurred in the American work force in many decades.

Typically each year, large numbers of Americans leave their old jobs to find new ones. Unemployment rises during recessions mainly because companies hire fewer workers, not because they lay more people off. But this Great Recession has been different. Layoffs by mid-sized and large companies have surged while hiring has almost disappeared.

These companies have used the sharp downturn as an opportunity to cull their payrolls for good -- substituting labor-saving technologies and outsourcing to workers abroad or to contract workers here. This explains why almost half of America's unemployed have been jobless for more than six months -- a greater proportion than at any time since the Great Depression. It also explains why so many people like George have joined the ranks of the self-employed.

Yes, a growing number of Americans went out on their own before the recession, but clearly their numbers have vastly increased. While some are happy about their new status, most are worse off than they were before. It's one thing to be a contingent worker in good times and when you're young; quite another in bad times when you're middle-aged.

Still, many would rather view these people as entrepreneurs and owners of startup businesses, and see their major challenge as getting adequate credit. Congress's Joint Economic Committee reported last week that small businesses continue to face tight lending standards. "Small business is the job-creation engine that powers this economy," said Representative Caroline Maloney, the New York Democrat who heads the committee. Democrats will be pushing bills to make loans more available to them.

Indeed, America's startup businesses do need better access to credit. But many entities that look like small new businesses are actually self-employed people who need more than bank loans. They need predictable income and benefits.

For starters, they could use what might be called "earnings insurance" that would pay for up to two years part of the difference between what they earned on the old job and what they earn now on their own. Employed workers would contribute to the insurance fund through their payroll taxes, as they do with unemployment insurance, but the total bill for benefits would be unlikely to rise because earnings insurance would get them back to work quicker and thereby reduce the number of weeks they relied on unemployment benefits.

The self-employed also need more help saving. Since they can no longer depend on tax-free corporate matches to their 401(k)'s or I.R.A.'s, they should be entitled to tax credits that match them. Fortunately, thanks to the reform package passed by Congress, they will have more help getting affordable health care, as they will be able to use their aggregate bargaining power in medical exchanges to push down insurance costs.

New businesses are vital to job growth, and entrepreneurship does fuel the economy. And surely some of America's new independent workers will build their own companies. But when the economy is still so hard on so many, it's important to distinguish between entrepreneurial zeal and self-employed desperation.

This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 
 
 
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10:48 AM on 06/04/2010
Well the GOP succeeded didn't it. Trickle down turned into Rush UP. So celebrate what Reagan brought everyone.
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Disabled-GMG3
05:45 PM on 06/03/2010
I would hate to be in today's Korporate Amerika. Six years ago I left to start my own business and have no regrets about doing it.

Reich is correct in his view that the new wave of entrepreneurship is partially an act of desparation. I lost count of the number of flyers placed on my door at home this year for yard cutting, Avon, church invites, party rentals with the inflatable bouncy things, etc. A former business client of mine went from building half-million dollar McMansions to driving a truck. Many former Realtors(TM) and mortgage brokers are not getting hired by any businesses for any position. It seems to be they have the same stigma as investment bankers. Many of the jobs around here that are normally staffed by teenagers or folks in their early twenties are now staffed by older people. When and if I ever have the opportunity to hire another person, I'll hire an older person, too.

When somebody gets a job these days, it's a celebration. The news spreads like wildfire as if it were like having a new child delivered into the world.

Is it like this where your are?
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AvgJoeBlow
We are smarter than any of us.
03:46 PM on 06/03/2010
The future I’m afraid of --All the rest of the wealth will be transferred upward within the next decade.
Our currency will collapse under its own weight, wiping out even the employed, investors and the well off. But there won’t be a bailout or cure, only then we’ll discover why they didn’t let us audit the FED or inventory the gold in Fort Knox. Only the Bankers, Uber-weathly, Multi-national Corporations, the Military and Political lapdogs living behind guarded walls with off shore weaklth will have a life worthy of living. The United States with all of its diversity and uneducated gun toten masses will become Balkanized. There will be War, only this time we will be the Cong.
03:16 PM on 06/03/2010
Excellent piece, Mr. Reich. I just want to add something that almost no one writing about the economy has been willing to put in print-Older workers are in a crisis. They are out of work the longest. We are hoping to start a business out of desperation. What else can someone over 55 do? It's nearly impossible to even get an interview for a job, we don't have enough saving to just coast until retirement.
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zlohcuc
"Serving millions from atop the Allegheny"
08:31 PM on 06/03/2010
Great post and spot on. Difficult as hell for older workers to even figure out the market now. The other reality is such a high % of employed workers are planning to leave their current position when things do improve. The implications of that emerging scenario are also daunting.
01:35 PM on 06/03/2010
The recession gave them a good kick in the pants, and now the government will give them a swift kick in the nutz.

It's almost criminal how many government obstacles and disincentives exist for small business owners.

I should know. I started a new business last fall, and dealing with licenses and government bureaucracy is one of the biggest problems we face.

The way the deck is stacked against employers isn't fair at all. If you want to be able to fire an incompetent person, you pretty much have to start building a file on every new hire as soon as they start, just in case it doesn't work out. Business owners shouldn't be forced to do this.
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
09:37 AM on 06/04/2010
Business owners AREN'T forced to do this. People who actually start businesses know that.
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MotownLinda
11:32 AM on 06/03/2010
There is going to be no improvement in this cycle of economic downturn. I truly believe this is the new world order. I'm a 57 year old unemployed legal secretary with 30 years of experience. My unemployment benefits have run out. I spend several hours each day sending out resumes and filling out applications. I never get a response. I live in an over 55 trailer park and just finished my last temporary job washing the windows of one of the houses here in the park. I earned $50 and was thrilled. I live in south Florida and unfortunately the last of the snowbirds left so I have to go back to selling all my possessions and family keepsakes on E-Bay.
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Anne Johnson
Fairly Unbalanced
10:59 AM on 06/03/2010
Article 100% true.


Living through this right now.


Extremely scary not knowing where the next dollar is going to come from.
09:33 AM on 06/03/2010
For the first time in my memory, two very good friends (an accountant and a travel agent) cannot pay their monthly rent and electric bill of $2200. Both are college grads and have worked their entire lives. He has been unable to find steady work and only Social Security keeps him afloat. She is self-employed in an industry that has been going downhill in terms of commissions for a decade. Because she is self-employed she does not qualify for unemployment assistance. Her only steady income will be if she takes early Social Security and then gives up 25% of what she would have been due. They are talking about leaving the city they live in and moving to a rural area just to survive.

Now that the blue collar workers have been squashed by big business, our economy is crumbling upwards. After the white collar workers are left with nothing, who do the CEOs and government think will be left to run the country and buy goods and services?
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bllnsinchnge
peace, markets, freedom
10:24 AM on 06/03/2010
Just wait until the 13 trillion dollar treasury debt comes due if you think things are hard now.
11:07 AM on 06/03/2010
You aren't overly burdened by compassion, are you?

For reasons I won't bother repeating, this will not happen. As Paul Krugman has explained at length, the USA is not Greece. The largest burden this country bears as a greedy plutocracy that benefits from endless war, the crushing of the poor and the increasingly brutal assault on the middle class, which the plutocrats hate with undying passion.
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Patriot86
Compassion is the basis of all morality.
03:50 PM on 06/03/2010
Should read age..if comment is not ...scr ubbed.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
12:28 PM on 06/03/2010
I always said the same, corporations make bigger profits by going to China for the labor and then when they bring back the goods we no longer can afford any of the goods they bring in. It will come down to that but until then, no one will put a stop to it. Same goes for the illegals, if they were taking away the white collar jobs we would have addressed the problem long ago!
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Patriot86
Compassion is the basis of all morality.
03:51 PM on 06/03/2010
They are hoping for an emerging consumer in China.
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den1953
The best politicians are for free!
09:28 AM on 06/03/2010
Anyone that might be interested in work i know this isn't glamorous work but i got several offers to drive tractor trailer in the past two weeks they need drivers and it is decent pay, it is not for everyone but it is work. Check out some trucking companies they will even train you in their own schools use Google or any search engine to get started. Just trying to help some of the unemployed!
11:58 AM on 06/03/2010
Good tip. Just be really careful about the place that trains you. A lot of truck license mills out there. Dan Rather did a report on this.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
12:35 PM on 06/03/2010
If they are laying off pilots at UPS and FEDEX then the drivers will be next. Yes, some trucking companies are hiring but most companies are now shipping by train. I see the business at BSNF really has increased and they are hiring though our Manufacturing Index did slip.
sonoffestus
Got smart & got out!
02:26 PM on 06/03/2010
Exactly why Warren Buffet bought into trains big time a couple of years ago.
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den1953
The best politicians are for free!
02:48 PM on 06/03/2010
The fact that trucking companies are hiring is encouraging the trucks need to get the goods to the manufactoring plants trains can't deliver the trailers, one of the calls i got was for a company that does that very same thing just telling some of the unemployed a small option that's all!
09:21 AM on 06/03/2010
Ah, so that's the economic strategy of conservatism. If they make the economy bad enough, we'll all get to become "entrepreneurs"!

We won't own anything, or really make good wages, or dictate our own hours, or do anything that entrepreneurs used to do before conservatives launched this strategy.

But we'll totally be self-employed.

...hell, why do we even count unemployed people anyway? Unemployed people are just entrepreneurs who are between contracts, and therefore the US has a 0% unemployment rate.
08:46 AM on 06/03/2010
There is a growing realization that Reagan and company used class warfare to weaken the rights of the working middle class and that governing for the wealthy now has bipartisan support. The current administration appears more interested in pandering to the right wing than in fighting for ordinary people. There is a growing feeling of disenchantment even despair as we watch the latest end product of a corrupt system wash up on shore across the gulf coast. Mr.Reich has made some very good points on the new "entrepreneurs."
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phree
free your mind
07:00 PM on 06/03/2010
I totally agree, but please realize that some of us have been protesting and fighting the Reaganites for 30 years now. My father predicted the end of the working/middle class when Reagan was elected in 1980. I was 15 and a few years later when I graduated you could not buy a job in Pittsburgh or anywhere else in the manufacturing heartland, auspiciously renamed the Rustbelt. For anyone who came of age from 1977-1986, our entire working lives have been marked by recessions and declining opportunites.

Prof. Reich is correct. All of America is the Rustbelt now. Reaganites and neo-cons were successful in using racist, fear-mongering to get working and middle class persons to vote against their own economic interests. This is still the plan which is why the Tea Party is a corporate sponsored organization. Rupert Murdoch and Fox News are the driving capital forces behind the movement. Preying on Americans sense of insecurity to divide and conquer is an ever present strategy, not just in capitalist countries, but communist countries as well. It helps the power elite do whatever they want while the people fight amongst themselves without identifying the true causes of their suffering.

How long will gullible Americans accept this status quo of false entrepreneurship? The government crushed small business decades ago and now people are noticing?!? It was not a left, liberal government that put this infrastructure in place, but a right leaning, fear-based Bush regime that buried us.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:00 AM on 06/03/2010
Guys selling apples on the street are also "entrepreneurs".
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
07:58 AM on 06/03/2010
The Myth of the Small Business

Most so-called "small businesses" are contractors.
Their jobs were created by their corporations who lay off employees, hire contractors.
Usually it's the same people: employee becomes small business.

This has been true in high tech for decades.
MS had 10,000 full-time contractors until the Feds ruled that those people were really employees, and MS had to pay benefits, e.g. matching SS payroll taxes.

The convention became, if you were a contractor for over a year, you're an employee.

So now in high tech, all contracts are ended before they last a year. The contractor can go away for three months, then come back for another contract.

That's the future, get used to it.

BTW: GREAT ARTICLE. This area has not been given much exposure.
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06:37 AM on 06/03/2010
I see these new entrepreneurs every day on the job painting, sanding floors, remodeling bathrooms and oh yeah mowing your lawn. What a sight it is to see completely unqualified people who are to old to physically do the job or to young to have enough capital to do the job right. These may be the new self employed but they sure are putting a hurt on those of us who have always been self employed.
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Stephen Herrington
02:36 AM on 06/03/2010
Reich's article here is among the most important political statements that can be made right now. If the Republicans and the Blue Dog Democrats are allowed make political hay out of the idea that the recession will grow entrepreneurs, then we are intellectually lost. The streets of Hong Kong are filled with just such entrepreneurs, selling rat carcasses as food.

Spending what is left of your life savings to start a business in the worst business climates since the Great Depression is nothing but foolhardy. In the best of times and economies only one in ten startup companies even survive. Those savings and that energy would be better spent demonstrating for reform in economic policy that would protect American manufacturing and buoy unions to claw back some of the gargantuan profits of the Wall Street multinational elite.

This is not a time to timidly survive and resell your expertise at a cut in pay. This is a time to vote the conscience of your own needs. In that vote is consensus with the needs of your fellow Americans and the survival of the economy on which you depend and on which the multinationals would prey.
03:37 AM on 06/03/2010
recessions do indeed grow entrepreneurs but not all of them will start the next microsoft, but some will. ok, may be not microsoft but the companies will grow beyond just the founder.

starting a business now is the best time to do so. if you are successful you beat out all those that wait to start until the economy improves. if you can make a go of it now you will likely do even better once the economy improves and be able to weather the next downturn because you have already experienced a tough business climate.

i believe it is foolhardy to start a business at the peak of an economic cycle. at the peak you need to do what you have been doing all along and save as much as you can in preparation for the next downturn. and yes, there will always be a next downturn.