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Robert Reich

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The Jobs Stall

Posted: 06/01/2012 10:26 am

The White House must be telling itself there are still five months between now and Election Day, so the jobs picture could brighten. After all, we went through a similar mid-year slump in 2011 but came out fine.

But however you look at today's jobs report, it's a stunning reminder of how anemic the recovery has been -- and how perilously close the nation is to falling into another recession.

Not only has the unemployment rate risen for the first time in almost a year, to 8.2 percent, but, more ominously, May's payroll survey showed that employers created only 69,000 net new jobs. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised its March and April reports downward. Only 96,000 new jobs have been created, on average, over the last three months.

Put this into perspective. Between December and February, the economy added an average of 252,000 jobs each month. To go from 252,000 to 96,000, on average, is a terrible slide. At least 125,000 jobs are needed a month merely to keep up with the growth in the working-age population available to work.

Face it: The jobs recovery has stalled.

What's going on? Part of the problem is the rest of the world. Europe is in the throes of a debt crisis and spiraling toward recession. China and India are slowing. Developing nations such as Brazil, dependent on exports to China, are feeling the effects and they're slowing as well. All this takes a toll on U.S. exports.

But a bigger part of the problem is right here in the United States, and it's clearly on the demand side of the equation. Big companies are still sitting on a huge pile of cash. They won't invest it in new jobs because American consumers aren't buying enough to justify the risk and expense of doing so.

Yet American consumers don't have the cash or the willingness to spend more. Not only are they worried about keeping their jobs, but their wages keep dropping. The median wage continues to slide, adjusted for inflation. Average hourly earnings in May were up 2 cents -- an increase of 1.7 percent from this time last year -- but that's less than the rate of inflation. And the value of their home -- their biggest asset by far -- is still declining. The average workweek slipped to 34.4 hours in May.

Corporate profits are healthy largely because companies have found ways to keep payrolls down -- substituting lower-paid contract workers, outsourcing abroad, using computers and new software applications. But that's exactly the problem. In paring their payrolls, they're paring their customers.

And we no longer have any means of making up for the shortfall in consumer demand. Federal stimulus spending is over. In fact, state and local governments continue to lay off large numbers. The government cut 13,000 jobs in May. Instead of a boost, government cuts have become a considerable drag on the rest of the economy.

Republicans will have a field day with today's jobs report, taking it as a sign that Obama's economic policies have failed and we need instead their brand of fiscal austerity combined with more tax cuts for the wealthy.

But that's precisely the reverse of what's needed.

ROBERT B. REICH, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century. He has written thirteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock" and "The Work of Nations." His latest is an e-book, "Beyond Outrage." He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine and chairman of Common Cause.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
04:20 AM on 06/04/2012
The Republican Party has solidly stood for: Cripple the President. and Get the Black man out of office. Not allowing our Prez to get anything passed that could be seen as an achievement. So today we now have the GOP....as ...THE PARTY OF NO WAY.................

the story: short good read: http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/03/08/things-the-republican-congress-has-done-instead-of-creating-jobs/
01:22 PM on 06/04/2012
Do you realize that eh election of Obama was a historic and significant achievement. Not only did he have limited achievements, but he had to overcome not just racism but stereotypes about African Americans that were untrue. While most Americans may not be racist, many still held stereotype views that were harmful to any African American running for office.

In the fact that Obama has made his entire election strategy focused on blaming everything else but himself for the current economic slowdown, can only reignite those stereotypes. I mean the African American who takes no blame is such a cliche, that I really feel he will be known as the Great Blamer
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
zackeryrichards
NO Party - just an American
12:28 AM on 06/09/2012
Bklein153: WHO would you suggest he blame?? Or should he make a lier
out of Boehner and take the blame himself??? You are aware that in 2010
Boehner, on National TV told the WORLD that {Quote}: "Republicans will
do everything in our power to assure the Obama Administration[America]
FAILS" {end quote]???? In light of such a "treasonous" statement . . . . .
who would you suggest is to blame??? Republicans have blocked new
Jobs Bills [even their own], they have blocked, stalled, delayed and done
everything in their power [as promised in 2010] to keep the Country and
it's economy at a stand-still. Their hope is that people will forget this
National Speech and blame Obama so they can "get him out of the
"White Mans" White House!! Unfortunately, there are a lot of dumb one's
out there that will do just that.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
04:07 AM on 06/04/2012
Let’s go to the numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In the first 33 months of George W. Bush’s presidency, from February 2001 to October 2003, the number of Americans with private jobs fell by 3,054,000 or 2.74 percent. Perhaps Americans were too distracted by Osama bin Laden to pay attention, or everyone was lulled by the dependably strong job creation of the 1980s and 1990s. Whatever the reason back then, Americans are certainly paying attention to jobs now. Yet, few seem to have noticed that Barack Obama’s jobs record has unquestionably been much better. In the first 33 months of his presidency, from February 2009 to October 2011, private sector employment fell by 723,000 jobs or 0.66 percent. That means that over the first 33 months of the two presidents’ terms, jobs were lost at more than four times the rate under Bush as under Obama.

balance of story: http://ndn.org/blog/2011/11/truth-about-job-creation-under-obama-and-bush
01:27 PM on 06/04/2012
No one wants a Bush repeat - even Republicans. What People want is what Reagan produced - and Democrats incorrectly lamented - after Carter. Hell the President himself hoped to be the second coming of Reagan. So please quit comparing Obama and Bush, or we will start comparing Obama and Carter - look up those stats and you will see an ominous similarity!
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
01:44 AM on 06/04/2012
Oh, whatever. Uncle Timmy will press the 'PRINT' key, and another plentytrillion e-dollars will be born, fabricated crisis will have been averted, investment community temporarily sated, and about 6 months from now, Timmy will have to do it again. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.$$ The national debt now stands in excess of 15 trillion dollars. If there was really a problem with doing business this way, they would have rolled up the sidewalks a long time ago. Since there isn't, stories like this are much ado about nothing.
01:28 PM on 06/04/2012
News said banks could be in trouble again. Start the printing presses again
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TinyDancer1
Taking a break for a while.
12:03 AM on 06/04/2012
I recently heard on the news that companies are not hiring the unemployed. They hire people who already have jobs. I wonder if this is a deliberate attempt to keep the number of new jobs added low. How is that number derived? If an unemployed person is hired, that, obvously, would be a new job. But if an employed person simply changes employers, does that count as a new job added?
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
01:49 AM on 06/04/2012
The employment screening process has gotten pretty stiff, and gets stiffer with each passing year. Reason(s)? Some people just can't do the job. Others won't do the job. Still others are prone to doing things like having opinions, eyes on the cash register, relatives/affiliations that are criminal in nature, or, they're just plain too old, smell funny, don't know what an iCrap is, aren't 'hip' to the latest trends, know their stuff and how to work efficiently 'old-school' style, and as a result might end up making the boss look bad, basically people you wouldn't want hanging around the jobsite, I think there's a lot of social politics in/at your average jobsite, anymore. Work-life balance and all that crapola. It's all about control.
01:30 PM on 06/04/2012
it doesn't matter whether the person was employed or unemployed. They look for new 'positions' created, and then later revise up or down the net increase/decrease in the workforce
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TinyDancer1
Taking a break for a while.
09:08 PM on 06/05/2012
I didn't know that. Thanks for the info.
09:54 PM on 06/03/2012
"Republicans will have a field day with today's jobs report, taking it as a sign that Obama's economic policies have failed and we need instead their brand of fiscal austerity combined with more tax cuts for the wealthy.
But that's precisely the reverse of what's needed"
----------------------------------------------------.
Oh how cute. What a way to end an otherwise good article. Why is that "precisely the reverse of what's needed"? A couple of reasons would have been good! I believe, as many other experts do, that austerity in government spending is "precisely what's needed". Government spending has gotten us in a hole that our great great grand children will be digging themselves out way into the future. We need better reasons than just grand declarations. We have Obama for that. Economists should deal with this more thoroughly.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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Social Construct
Go left, young man.
01:54 AM on 06/04/2012
You don't read Prof. Reich's commentary often, do you? Otherwise you'd have the answers you asked in your comment. Having stated that, however, I'm quite certain, by your own words, you'd disagree with Prof. Reich's learned suggestions for government's participation in the US and global economies. Yet, he still does make a reasoned argument for government intervention.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josephine Welsh
Liberal 4 Life
01:32 PM on 06/03/2012
Keep saying it Robert Reich, hopefully the message will start to sink in out there. :-)
01:30 PM on 06/04/2012
The message that is sinking in is Obama needs to go
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
McKibbinUSA
I side with the supermajority...
10:33 PM on 06/02/2012
The US employment to population ratio in May 2012 increased for the second consecutive month -- more at:

http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/06/us-employment-to-population-ratio-marks.html

The US employment to population ratio appears to be improving, which is good news for workers.
01:31 PM on 06/04/2012
Did you actually LOOK at that graph. LOL. How could one be encouraged by that!
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modeforjoe
We had the experience, but we missed the meaning
09:27 PM on 06/02/2012
Jobs and the economy may stall. A still larger question for you: How is it that the right hand column of Huff P, and increasingly the middle column, are more outright tabloid and low brow than ever before?

Despite the economy, this is the greatest issue that we face as Americans; as consumers. I always hated that word. Consumers.
08:29 PM on 06/02/2012
Never mind the poor and middle class, the tickle down economy is working well for the politicians.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
05:35 PM on 06/02/2012
The reason the unemployment rate went UP this month is because 642,000 people JOINED the Civilian Labor Force in May! That's the most since September of 2007!!!!

Yes the job creation numbers are not good the last three months, but we have STILL created over 1.6 million new jobs in the last six months (140,614,000 "employed" at the end of Nov 2011 to 142,287,000 "employed" at the end of May 2012) and over 2.3 million in the last year (139,808,000 "employed" at the end of May 2011 to 142,287,000 "employed" at the end of May 2012). Since Jan 1, 2010 we have gone from 137,968,000 "employed" to 142,287,000 "employed" today, an increase of 4,321,000 million. And that's 4.3 million NET jobs created (i.e. AFTER you subtract all the "government"/public sector jobs lost in that time)!
01:33 PM on 06/04/2012
Did oyu honestly type this with a straight face. I am all for making lemon aid, but your post actually insults every American out there who is unemployed and more importantly underemployed. shame on your blatant partisan post. Please get off Obama's d--k. He is not your gf!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
03:48 PM on 06/04/2012
What is you problem with THE FACTS???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jeanrenoir
05:33 PM on 06/02/2012
Like the Democratic oligarchs of the old segregationist South, the Republican fat cats have long since figured out that if you can hook the dumb white masses by playing to their racism, their hatreds and resentments, and their mindless prejudices in general, the dumb mob will follow you anywhere, thereby perpetuating a political system that keeps making the rich richer and the dumb poor whites poorer than ever. So it's child's play for the Republicans to block all hope of economic recovery, and in fact push "austerity" (meaning massive public sector job cuts in the middle of a Depression), in order to guarantee no recovery and then blame Obama for not magically overcoming all their obstructions.
01:35 PM on 06/04/2012
So not a single one of Obama's policies are to blame for the economy being this slow?? He is absolutely blameless? Oh Democrats, please run on this! Nothing like arrogance and lack of accountability to guarantee, Obama goes home in NOV!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rtx47
05:26 PM on 06/02/2012
Progressives should welcome the Balance Budget Amendment­. This will bring an end to the many foreign wars (declared and undeclared ­). Currently we are involved in about a dozen wars across the globe. Since World War II, the only justified war was in Afghanistan.

Most in Congress and Presidents (of both parties) are suckers to the Military-Industrial Complex. And we-people have just gone along! Till now, all of us have been able to "eat our cake and have it too". The American victims of these wars are our soldiers and their families; their grandchild­ren and yet-to-be-born Americans who have to foot-the-b­­ill and not to men­tion victims of parents who have PTSD, divorce, etc.

Everything the govt spends (4 trillion) on Medicaid, Medicare, Military, Agriculture, Transportation and highway construction is accompanied with waste, fraud and abuse.

In my city (upstate NY), worthy case is often made often on the air for "Fixing Crumbling Bridges." Who could be against it? Yet what ever construction money is available, the city spends it on constructi­­ng round-abou­­ts, upgrading traffic lights etc.

Its the same rationale: "If we don't use it we loose it."
wufdog
Liberal hope & change vs. the right's dopes & rage
05:22 PM on 06/02/2012
Plutocrats use middle class Americans' need for jobs to control them. "If only we didn't have to pay such high wages [or maintain a safe working environment, contribute to paying for infrastructure, conform to financial regulations that protect Americans' savings, or conform to anti-pollution laws that protect our health., and so....whatever those plutocrats don't like]," they whine, "we'd be able to employ so many more people. What a shame." And they use that ploy to trick Americans into voting for self-defeating policies, and for politicians who will betray them at every turn. I'm looking at you, Republicans. What's the solution? Entrepreneurship and innovations like crowdfunding are a start.
04:51 PM on 06/02/2012
There is no way we will ever rebuild our economy as long as citizens remain loyal to the same republicans and democrats who enabled our serious problems to begin with. Prosperity doesn't come from getting a government subsidy or entitlement check, it comes from creating substantial growth of good jobs, reducing our debt, and living within our means. Citzens must wake up. This November's election is NOT about republicans vs democrats as the major media would like everyone to believe, It's about republicans, democrats, big banks, Wall Street, and the very wealthy vs most taxpayers. As the Middle Class and small business disintegrate, so does our country. Unless voters are willing to make real spending, trade, entitlment, and political finance reform happen to grow desperately needed good jobs while reducing our debt, we are headed for economic disaster. Real reform can only happen if voters elect truly independent representatives who aren't controlled or funder by members of the current status quo. Without crucial reforms, our country's fate is sealed.
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LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
04:25 PM on 06/02/2012
"...substituting lower-paid contract workers, outsourcing abroad,..."

At least you used the word "outsourcing", now if you would honestly discuss how "free trade" polices have done great damage to our economy, especially the middle class...