Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's compromise on the debt ceiling is a win for the president disguised as a win for Republicans. But it really just kicks the can down the road past the 2012 election -- which is what almost every sane politician in Washington wants to happen in any event.
McConnell's plan would allow the president to raise the debt limit. Congressional Republicans could then vote against the action with resolutions of disapproval. But these resolutions would surely be vetoed by the president. And such a veto, like all vetoes, could only be overridden by two-thirds majorities in both the House and Senate -- which couldn't possibly happen with the Democrats in the majority in the Senate and having enough votes in the House to block an override.
Get it? The compromise allows Republicans to vote against raising the debt limit without bearing the horrendous consequences of a government default.
No budget cuts. No tax increases. No clear plan for deficit reduction. Nada. The entire, huge, mind-boggling, wildly partisan, intensely ideological, grandly theatrical, game of chicken miraculously vanishes.
Until the 2012 election, that is.
McConnell, like most other Republican leaders, has all along seen the battle over raising the debt ceiling as part of a master plan to unseat Obama. Remember, it was McConnell who openly admitted the GOP's "top goal is to defeat President Obama in 2012" -- a brazen and bizarre statement in the face of the worst economic crisis in seventy years.
The GOP will weave Obama's decision to raise the debt ceiling into the 2012 presidential campaign -- as well as Senate and House races -- so 2012 becomes what they hope will be a referendum on Obama's "big government."
McConnell's compromise will win the day. Expect much grousing from the GOP, especially those who feel they need to posture for the tea party. But McConnell -- or something very similar -- is the only way out. Obama can't agree to a plan lacking tax increases, especially on the wealthy. Republicans can't agree to one including them. In Washington, when an immovable object meets an irresistible force, something's got to give. A compromise that allows both sides to save face is the easiest give of all.
Moreover, as the August 2 deadline approaches, big business and Wall Street (who hold the purse strings for the GOP) are sending Republicans a clear signal: Raise the debt ceiling or capital markets will start getting nervous. And if they get nervous and interest rates start to rise, you guys will be blamed.
Washington insiders will look at the the McConnell compromise and consider it a win for Obama. But the rest of the country hasn't been paying much attention and won't consider it much of a win for either side. Their attention is riveted on the economy, particularly jobs and wages. If those don't improve, Obama will be a one-term president regardless of how the GOP wants to paint him.
Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.
Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich
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“i hate to disagree with mr. Reich. but, unfortunatÂely, i don't think Obama will accept essentiallÂy clean raise of the deficit ceiling. Obama really wants to "starve the beast" of federal government and to cripple social security and medicare. He just does. he needs to show this "republicaÂns made me do it act" for rank and file democrats. so at the end it will be a tortured cave in to the republican demands.
I hope i am wrong and Mr. Reich's scenario will play out. In any case, there is still zero chance of default. Except some technical glitch if they pull it too close to the wire.
Or don't you read the Bible, anymore?
- Luke 12:33; Isaiah 3:15
If president Obama should become a one-term president because the people will have made that decision, then I foresee (if robert can prognosticate I too will take that liberty) darker econmic and social days for this country with another repub president to carry-on where W left-off.
Please explain to me how two wars, a Medicare Part D plan and those foolish tax breaks were all paid by borrowing yet they did not add to our current economic problem.
Bush was the guy who reduced taxes on the wealthy, jumped into 2 wars without a plan to finish them - wars that he sold because he ignored CIA warnings to begin with - and let Wall Street run wild until he had to bail them out.
Obama's problem has been to salvage the Republican mess. Killing bin Laden was a major coup - Bush had given up, because - well, because cleaning up his own mess was too much work for the mental midget.
Eric Cantor and the Republicans are planning on passing a bill to direct checks to the folks on Virginia military bases and retirees and other red state welfare recipients but its OK to stiff Granny who can live off cat food or starve till she runs out of Meds and conveniently die and relieve the Social Security rolls. Just don't dare make the rich pay more in taxes. They have vital national interest priorities and that doesn't include most of us.
I think it's an abdication of responsibility on the part of the Republicans, but it beats catastrophe.
Guess what. America will be totally pissed and the republicans will pay for it next year too.
My way or the highway might sound grand to the tea party, but it won't play in 2012. Not enough Americans think that way.
The "grand 2010 Republican victory" was wholly in response to the IRRESPONSIBLE SPENDING that added $4 Trillion to the debt in just the last two years - without which we wouldn't even be having this "conversation" about raising the debt ceiling by $2.4 Trillion.
Putting the responsibility on the NEW House, after the Dems had ALL the reigns for the last 2+ years, and controlled the House and Senate for the last 2 years under Bush, is political hypocrisy at its finest.
Refusing to face problems because they can't get 100% of what they want isn't going to win votes in 2012.
Bush and the Republicans bankrupted the country with tax cuts, spending sprees, and wars.
Go ahead and spell it out. You think that America defaulting on its debt is a good thing and in the best interest of the American people. We need to know that you support default.