Why Mitch McConnell Will Win the Day

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's compromise on the debt ceiling is a win for the president disguised as a win for Republicans. But it really just kicks the can down the road past the 2012 election -- which is what almost every sane politician in Washington wants to happen in any event.

McConnell's plan would allow the president to raise the debt limit. Congressional Republicans could then vote against the action with resolutions of disapproval. But these resolutions would surely be vetoed by the president. And such a veto, like all vetoes, could only be overridden by two-thirds majorities in both the House and Senate -- which couldn't possibly happen with the Democrats in the majority in the Senate and having enough votes in the House to block an override.

Get it? The compromise allows Republicans to vote against raising the debt limit without bearing the horrendous consequences of a government default.

No budget cuts. No tax increases. No clear plan for deficit reduction. Nada. The entire, huge, mind-boggling, wildly partisan, intensely ideological, grandly theatrical, game of chicken miraculously vanishes.

Until the 2012 election, that is.

McConnell, like most other Republican leaders, has all along seen the battle over raising the debt ceiling as part of a master plan to unseat Obama. Remember, it was McConnell who openly admitted the GOP's "top goal is to defeat President Obama in 2012" -- a brazen and bizarre statement in the face of the worst economic crisis in seventy years.

The GOP will weave Obama's decision to raise the debt ceiling into the 2012 presidential campaign -- as well as Senate and House races -- so 2012 becomes what they hope will be a referendum on Obama's "big government."

McConnell's compromise will win the day. Expect much grousing from the GOP, especially those who feel they need to posture for the tea party. But McConnell -- or something very similar -- is the only way out. Obama can't agree to a plan lacking tax increases, especially on the wealthy. Republicans can't agree to one including them. In Washington, when an immovable object meets an irresistible force, something's got to give. A compromise that allows both sides to save face is the easiest give of all.

Moreover, as the August 2 deadline approaches, big business and Wall Street (who hold the purse strings for the GOP) are sending Republicans a clear signal: Raise the debt ceiling or capital markets will start getting nervous. And if they get nervous and interest rates start to rise, you guys will be blamed.

Washington insiders will look at the the McConnell compromise and consider it a win for Obama. But the rest of the country hasn't been paying much attention and won't consider it much of a win for either side. Their attention is riveted on the economy, particularly jobs and wages. If those don't improve, Obama will be a one-term president regardless of how the GOP wants to paint him.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 

 

 

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Comments

[afgan irakson]

11:26 AM on 08/03/2011

Commented Jul 13, 2011 at 17:35:03 in Politics
“i hate to disagree with mr. Reich. but, unfortunat­ely, i don't think Obama will accept essentiall­y clean raise of the deficit ceiling. Obama really wants to "starve the beast" of federal government and to cripple social security and medicare. He just does. he needs to show this "republica­ns made me do it act" for rank and file democrats. so at the end it will be a tortured cave in to the republican demands.
I hope i am wrong and Mr. Reich's scenario will play out. In any case, there is still zero chance of default. Except some technical glitch if they pull it too close to the wire.

[scottwarhar]

03:15 PM on 07/22/2011

The problem with everthing in this country boils down to one thing.This has been a jobless recovery and until americans are able to find jobs at livable wages there will be no true recovery in this country. Except for the people that manufacture paper profit in their financial manufacturing machine of wall street.Real products,produced by real people produce real wealth for any nation.American tax dollars invested in american enterprises would be a good start in producing a recovery.Tax breaks for the rich only gives them more assets to invest in oversea markets and increase their personal wealth and add nothing to the wealth of this nation.The evidence is very compelling that this is what has been happening for a long time.The recession of the 80's was caused by the federal reserve raising interest rates to high to remove inflation and was easily solved by lowering them again because we still had a manufacturing base in this economy.This base is now gone and the only true economic driver we had left which was domestic construction was destroyed by the wall street mess.Invest american tax dollar in america enterprise and watch this economy recover and the budget deficit shrink.

[Joe Neri]

05:13 AM on 07/17/2011

Tax the Rich and Feed the Poor,
Or don't you read the Bible, anymore?
- Luke 12:33; Isaiah 3:15

[ignacio sanabria]

10:59 PM on 07/16/2011

The fact of the matter is that the debt ceiling issue will be solved one way or another, the economy will improve as a matter of force, and as a result Barack Obama will be re-elected. People only care about what they are experiencing `right here, right now`. By November 2012, the economy and jobs will be on the upswing.

[lw1]

06:14 PM on 07/16/2011

The painter that the republicans come up with will still matter. If Bachmann is the one to go up against Obama, I find it hard to believe she won't paint herself into a corner.

[Chris Wundrow]

04:37 PM on 07/16/2011

I thought McConnell's idea a breath-taking piece of cynicism when I first heard of it--I have seen nothing since to change my mind. We know, after all, what McConnell's real motive is--bringing down Obama.

[livefreeinAmerica]

01:40 PM on 07/14/2011

"Their attention is riveted on the economy, particularly jobs and wages. If those don't improve, Obama will be a one-term president regardless of how the GOP wants to paint him."

If president Obama should become a one-term president because the people will have made that decision, then I foresee (if robert can prognosticate I too will take that liberty) darker econmic and social days for this country with another repub president to carry-on where W left-off.

[dhlincali]

03:15 PM on 07/14/2011

Sad but true

[DickGranite]

01:32 PM on 07/14/2011

How is defeating Obama as a number one goal of the opposition party "bizarre" when Obama is the number one economic problem? It sounds entirely logical to me.

[blaze]

03:20 PM on 07/14/2011

It sounds logical to you because you have completely forgotten that after Bill Clinton diminished the debt by 10%, George Bush took a $240 billion dollar a year surplus and increased the debt by 30% - Including a $700 billion dollar egg laid at the last minute to bail out the Bush bankers.

Please explain to me how two wars, a Medicare Part D plan and those foolish tax breaks were all paid by borrowing yet they did not add to our current economic problem.

[jack Winn]

04:36 AM on 07/17/2011

Logical if you listen to Fox and don't have a memory.

Bush was the guy who reduced taxes on the wealthy, jumped into 2 wars without a plan to finish them - wars that he sold because he ignored CIA warnings to begin with - and let Wall Street run wild until he had to bail them out.

Obama's problem has been to salvage the Republican mess. Killing bin Laden was a major coup - Bush had given up, because - well, because cleaning up his own mess was too much work for the mental midget.

[Benjacomin Bozart]

01:25 PM on 07/14/2011

This is why Obama has to default rather than do the McConnell plan.

Eric Cantor and the Republicans are planning on passing a bill to direct checks to the folks on Virginia military bases and retirees and other red state welfare recipients but its OK to stiff Granny who can live off cat food or starve till she runs out of Meds and conveniently die and relieve the Social Security rolls. Just don't dare make the rich pay more in taxes. They have vital national interest priorities and that doesn't include most of us.

[DocJoseph]

12:34 PM on 07/14/2011

This is exactly what I said in another comment for another article! McConnell is using this cynical ploy because he knows there will be no measures passed in this do-nothing Congress. And they get the added benefit of blaming Obama for "raising the debt ceiling."

I think it's an abdication of responsibility on the part of the Republicans, but it beats catastrophe.

[Charlene Estes]

11:39 AM on 07/14/2011

No he won't because the wingers in the House won't pass anything. They are determined to bring the entire debt ceiling debate to a crisis and the country to its knees.

Guess what. America will be totally pissed and the republicans will pay for it next year too.

[DickGranite]

01:28 PM on 07/14/2011

The "wingers" in the house alread passed a budget, 3 months ago today.

[Barnicle23]

02:31 PM on 07/14/2011

A budget that adds 6 trillion dollars to the deficit.

[lw1]

06:18 PM on 07/16/2011

That is the hypocracy. THEIR ryan budget requires the debt limit be raised. For them to not want to raise it is a dereliction of duty.

[Michael Dayne]

11:17 AM on 07/14/2011

It would be irresponsible for Obama to give in. If Obama hadn't caved on letting the Bush tax cuts expire, he wouldn't be sitting in a room full of fools now trying to get a concession that Bush got eight times during his presidency without issue. Obama, whether he wants to admit it or not created this monster by compromising far too much with the Republicans. When he had his mandate after '08 and a Democratic congress he should have made hay. This is indeed a high stakes game of chicken, but the Republicans know that failing to raise the debt ceiling is political suicide if even one American doesn't get a government check. The really scary thing is knowing that these clowns are in charge of this clown car and nothing is going to change any time soon. Perhaps flushing the tolilet in 2012 will help.

[GJCO-JMH]

11:37 AM on 07/14/2011

Obama and the Dems created this crisis by increasing the debt by $4 TRILLION in just 2 years. Even if he'd succeeded in raising taxes on "the rich", we'd still be having this same "conversation" to avoid raising the debt ceiling.

[Benjacomin Bozart]

01:28 PM on 07/14/2011

So you agree with Cantor and Bachmann. Don't raise the debt ceiling and don't mail out those Social Security and Medicare checks. Old people are probably liberal Democrats and the Tea Party people don't want the checks anyway.

[Barnicle23]

02:33 PM on 07/14/2011

Untrue. That debt was added because of the wars that Bush hid off of his budgets, as well as a mix of the Bush tax cuts and the fact that we have the lowest tax revenues since the 50's. Obama has increased spending a mere 9% since Bush's last budget.

[MamaBird62]

10:29 AM on 07/14/2011

As much as Republicans would like to punt on their budget responsibilities, they can't. Is McConnell's proposal even constitutional? What happened to that grand 2010 Republican victory? What has Boehner accomplished in the past 18 months? Anything?
My way or the highway might sound grand to the tea party, but it won't play in 2012. Not enough Americans think that way.

[GJCO-JMH]

12:02 PM on 07/14/2011

It's not the Republicans who are blocking budget RESPONSIBILITY.

The "grand 2010 Republican victory" was wholly in response to the IRRESPONSIBLE SPENDING that added $4 Trillion to the debt in just the last two years - without which we wouldn't even be having this "conversation" about raising the debt ceiling by $2.4 Trillion.

Putting the responsibility on the NEW House, after the Dems had ALL the reigns for the last 2+ years, and controlled the House and Senate for the last 2 years under Bush, is political hypocrisy at its finest.

[MamaBird62]

12:28 PM on 07/14/2011

Americans are not impressed by what Boehner and company have done so far.

Refusing to face problems because they can't get 100% of what they want isn't going to win votes in 2012.

[Benjacomin Bozart]

01:34 PM on 07/14/2011

They PASSED the budget with the IRRESPONSIBLE SPENDING. They didn't make provisions to pay for what they passed. They either borrow to pay the bills or stop spending on their beloved wars and red state welfare and on the plus side, no more checks to Granny.

Bush and the Republicans bankrupted the country with tax cuts, spending sprees, and wars.

[DickGranite]

01:30 PM on 07/14/2011

Boehner passed a budget 3 months ago....that the dems for the first time in history punted on in '10..

[Barnicle23]

02:35 PM on 07/14/2011

Also untrue. A Continuing Resolution was passed by Nancy's House, something Bush did multiple times as well.

[jacobomorales]

10:24 AM on 07/14/2011

Not this time Robert.

[Robert Turner]

10:24 AM on 07/14/2011

Mitch McConnell wasn't trying to seek a solution for the national good. He explicitly stated that he didn't want a default to be seen as a victory for President Obama. Again and again, Republican'ts seem to be able to find the lowest ground yet the media fails to call them on it. Moreover, actually pushing the President to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling, an act I wish he would do anyway, would not remove the gloomy uncertainty that stains ours and world markets. It's a non-solution solution baked in political calculus and not in the best interest in the American people.

[GJCO-JMH]

12:07 PM on 07/14/2011

So you agree that raising the debt ceiling is not in the best interest of the American people? PLEASE, tell the Dems!

[hg wells]

12:37 PM on 07/14/2011

uuumm...republicans have a majority in the house...they have the votes to raise the debt ceiling whenever they choose.....I suggest you call boehner.

[blaze]

03:25 PM on 07/14/2011

GJCO-JMH -

Go ahead and spell it out. You think that America defaulting on its debt is a good thing and in the best interest of the American people. We need to know that you support default.