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Robert Reich

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The Oddness of the President's Upcoming Deficit-Reduction Plan

Posted: 09/13/11 12:11 AM ET

On Monday the president will offer ways to pay for his $467 billion American Jobs Act mostly by increasing taxes on the wealthy.

I'm all in favor, but it's an odd strategy. If any Republican was prepared to vote for the jobs bill, this will send him or her scurrying.

So if the president was never really serious about getting Republican votes in the first place -- if his jobs bill and the tax increase on the wealthy were always going to be part of his 2012 election year pitch -- why didn't he make his jobs bill big enough to do the job?

Here's another odd thing.

The deficit-reduction plan the president will present Monday to Congress's special Super Committee on the debt (now struggling to come up with $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction) will also propose some $2 to $3 trillion in additional deficit reduction over the next ten years -- including changes in Medicare.

According to the president's plan, those tax increases and spending cuts would go into effect in 2013.

But there's a strong likelihood the American economy will still be anemic in 2013, if not on life support. Even if we avoid a double dip the jobs picture we'll almost certainly be terrible. Even if by some miracle job growth soared to the average monthly growth over the past decade, the unemployment rate wouldn't get back down to 6 percent until 2024.

When unemployment is still in the stratosphere, it would be insane to start cutting the deficit by $3 trillion to $4 trillion. That would push unemployment into outer space.

And in proposing such a huge deficit reduction package, the president continues to reinforce the Republican lie that the budget deficit is our biggest challenge -- indeed, that we're in the fix we're in because government has become too big.

If the president wants to show his creds on deficit reduction, at least put in a trigger that begins to lower the deficit only when unemployment falls to 6 percent.

Our national crisis is joblessness and low wages, not the deficit.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

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01:53 PM on 09/15/2011
Giving someone a tax break on his $8.00 +/- an hour job is not going to fix the economy, nor is creating more $8.00 an hour jobs going to help either. We need jobs that can support a family. I believe we should all be asking the President and Congress to stop posturing on the side issues and answer the question, "Where's the beef?"
04:20 PM on 09/14/2011
Dear Prof Reich:

What is missing from all economic plans for the future is the engine with the oomph to pull the train that oil created. Oil is going away. Fission is being priced out of the market. Renewables are a shell game. Government found it impossible to craft an actual energy policy, so it has taken to calling its posturing about the climate an energy policy. It is human nature to ignore the elephant in the living room, but if you ignore it long enough, your living room becomes the elephant's bathroom. Energy is referred to as the lifeblood of the economy. Whether you look at it from the point of view of how many jobs affordable energy creates or how many are lost without it, there is no bigger jobs issue. I think you would accomplish more good if you would write more about this existential issue (which subsumes the environment) than about how our financial Angels can shuffle the beans around on the tilting deck of the ship of state.
10:56 AM on 09/14/2011
I find it odd that Professor Reich who happens to be a former Secretary of Labor would even refer to the bill that President Obama has produced as a “jobs bill”. At the very least, a jobs bill should include a definitive plan or strategy to stimulating organic jobs growth. At best, the President’s plan can be called a deficit-increasing plan. The infrastructure jobs that he proposes amounts applying a band-aid to a hemorrhaging wound. Of course, people will be hired, but the jobs will be temporal because the infrastructure projects will end after a period of time and the workers will be right back where they began – unemployed.

A true jobs plan must focus first on repairing the employment legal infrastructure. Our entire employment system is based on outdated legislation that is inappropriate for accommodating the needs of a 21st century labor force. The laws so narrowly define who can work legally and for whom that the majority or workers are forced to function outside the system. Approximately 55 to 60% of the available U.S. labor force function outside the employment system due either to freelance or unemployment. Billions of dollars are being lost in tax revenues.

It is also very odd that Prof. Reich, former Secy of Labor and former President Clinton don’t remind Congress and President Obama of the recommendations made by the Dunlop Commission in 1994 urging Congress to overhaul employment and labor laws to better accommodate a 21st century labor force.
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softvoice
keep your eye on the prize
08:31 AM on 09/14/2011
I think it is time for Americans who do not want the Republican/Tea Party to be in control of our government, to stop finding fault with and speculating out loud about every move the President makes. Some peopele seem to think it is more important to show others how smart THEY are rather than allow the President to do his job. President Obama is not Bill Clinton or any other President. He is his own man and he deserves to have a party that will give him room to do his job.
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
12:24 PM on 09/14/2011
I agree with you that the only POSSIBLE reason to vote for Obama is naked fear of the teabaggers.

But if you're tired of voting for evil you might want to find and support a third party.
08:18 AM on 09/14/2011
Dr. Bob,

What happens when the producers in the economy go on strike?
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
11:01 AM on 09/14/2011
Typically the Rich move the corporations offshore to capitalize on slave labor and/or buy congressmen to pass anti-labor laws.
04:24 PM on 09/14/2011
Exactly how many jobs are offshore that you think should be here?

I've seen this claim too many times, and it flies in the face of Reason. I mean, we farmed out production of motor parts and other supplies to Japanese companies during the Korean War, so it's not a new thing.

The Japanese built cheap transistor radios and electronics for us all along as well. It just happens that Korea is also making these things.

And there are still well over 100M people working at jobs here, maybe as many as 120M.

In fact, it says a LOT about our country that of 310M population, only 120M have to work. 2/3 of us don't have to.
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68Namvet
Sioux, French, German, Jew, American mutt
12:17 PM on 09/14/2011
And exactly who are these "producers"?

If you mean the major corporations and the wealthy - they "went on strike" long ago. They're sitting on trillions - not investing (at least not here), not hiring (at least not here) - you know - the infamous "jobs creators" who've not created any jobs.
01:17 PM on 09/14/2011
Yep, that's what it looks like when they go on strike.
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des946
Consultant
08:16 AM on 09/14/2011
A basic problem with government is that government (politicians and bureaucrats) are "conceptual people'; they don't develop detailed programs. They get an idea and then they usually (unofficially) turn the issues over to the industry insiders to draft legislation and regulations, which wind up being slanted to the advantage of the industry insiders. It is private enterprises who develop the businesses that create jobs, not politicians or bureaucrats. Government's role is to provide fair and reasonable conditions for private enterprise to develop and flourish . . . giving special conditions for special interests always winds up with a negative results (and exploitation) in the long run. We just need reasonable and prudent regulations to allow private enterprises to develop and reasonably compete in our capitalistic system. "The PRIVATELY OWNED Fed'eral Reserve Bank is one of our biggest problems; the Fed is only interested in propped up the financial institutions and Wall Street "insiders'. As Ron Paul says in his book, we must End the Fed" to restore integrity to our banking system.
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des946
Consultant
08:02 AM on 09/14/2011
A basic problem is that, as much as the American people complain about big government, they look to the government to handle and resolve all of the problems . . . it has become a vicious cycle. people complain, BUT they demand more and more, while there is less and less . . .. and then the politicians com up with things like a Natinal healthcare program to placate the people; but the program is totally unaffordable and not sustainable. Basically it boils down to a lack of "common sense" being exercised by the people. There are no easy solutions for the problems that have taken decades to develop . . . "it takes as long to fill a hole as it did to dig it"
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demockracy
Library cards are free
10:23 AM on 09/14/2011
Interesting example "Natinal healthcare." Uncontroversially, the U.S. pays twice per-patient what other, single-payer and heavily-regulated health care systems do. Outcomes are dismal too. The U.S. ranks low in infant mortality and life expectancy compared to nations with real "Natinal health care." A 2000 WHO study ranks the U.S. 37th in the world, between Slovenia and Costa Rica. Why, it's as though we have the health care of Costa Rica but pay six times more for the privilege. To see where the money goes, I recommend Marcia Angell's writing in nybooks.com. It's truly awful to see private concerns literally killing people for profit, but we are, after all, home to the tobacco industry.

In other words, the biggest waste of resources, the "unaffordable and not sustainable" health care is the U.S.' heavily privatized system. Talk about lacking common sense!
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guveqzero
Inventor and Innovator
07:58 AM on 09/14/2011
It is also quite odd that republicans believe in these silly kind of ideas as well, making Obama fiscally conservative and an outsider at the same time. These kind of gimmicks give no hope to the 25 million people and growing that are suffering. I call it business as usual in Washington DC, which means nothing for the American people and future prospects of our once great nation. It is time to hold constitutional conventions and create change with real hope. We must make new laws and upset the current balance of nonsense placed up against more nonsense. I see many things that will happen that no one will like, but destiny will be in our hands and not our politicians and their task masters. We have a weak president getting weaker by the day, followed by a weak government, weak peoples, and weak corporate structure. It is all very odd because it could have been avoided.
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fgbouman
Curmudgeon & Designer
07:56 AM on 09/14/2011
It's all about magical thinking. Concentrate wealth amongst the few and poof! Magically everyone else will have jobs and money and we'll all be living the American Dream again. I'm sure the Money Fairy will visit your house right after she visits mine. Ain't America grand?
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nofriendofrepublicans
Mother friendly.
08:16 AM on 09/14/2011
I don't have to put any teeth under my pillow, do I?
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budanatr
US Expat in EU
06:58 AM on 09/14/2011
Debt, deficit, passing it on to our grandchildren, blah, blah, blah.

Follow the money.

Who profits from this meme?

Follow the money.

Who benefits from these right wing policies?

Follow the money.
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des946
Consultant
08:06 AM on 09/14/2011
LMAO . . . "Follow the money" if you REALLY want to know the truth . . . . so, why doesn't the media and other practice this truism to get to the truth behind all of these matters? We all know that "following the money" will reveal the truth, so why don't the american people demand that this be done? Somehow the news stories seem to always fizzle out and fade before they manage to "get to the truth". The truth is always there, we just don't have the patience and ttenacity to hang in there and follow it through.
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budanatr
US Expat in EU
02:00 AM on 09/15/2011
Because the media is owned by 'the money' and is part of the right wing propaganda machine.
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demockracy
Library cards are free
10:27 AM on 09/14/2011
Worth reading in connection with this:

http://select.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=1

A relevant excerpt: "Between 1972 and 2001.... income at the 99th percentile rose 87 percent; income at the 99.9th percentile rose 181 percent; and income at the 99.99th percentile rose 497 percent. No, that's not a misprint."
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Kye154
06:42 AM on 09/14/2011
The real reason for the oddities in the president's jobs plan has everything to do with his advisors total lack of direction and experience, and they haven't spent the last 2 1/2 years giving the issue of jobs any proper considertion.

It's apparent from the outline, the plan was designed to appease Republicans. That's why it's very heavy on tax credits for businesses, but doesn't mention anything about a public works program or green jobs. Just like TARP, the money is heading to the wrong places, and not getting down to the real engines of the economy, to the people who are unemployed.

Also, Obama's advisors took the "Georgia Work$" job program as the model to adopt. But it's apparent they did no research on how effective it was. Of the thousands who are in the program, Georgia only manages to place 700 into jobs a year. How could anyone in their right mind expect it to be successful on the national level in getting 22 million Americans back to work with that sort of batting average?

The president missed some big opportunities here, and even if he's able to win support of the Republicans, it's too little, too late, and not structured to have the most effect of gettting the unemployed back to work immediately. Of course, Republicans will ultimately hail Obama's job plan as a big failure for justification towards securing their own jobs in 2012. In the meanwhile, welcome, Americans, to the second Great Depression era.
06:15 AM on 09/14/2011
This debate over the "jobs bill" is a total waste of time and entergy. The "jobs bill" is nothing more than an excuse for President Obama to maintain his relevance and to kick off his 2012 reelection campaign. I do not see any reason to get wraped up in it one way or another. At some point everyone needs to figure out that when there is no there there, there is no there there.
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themodernleader
05:54 AM on 09/14/2011
"Our national crisis is joblessness and low wages..." is not the problem but the result of many policies that benefit the few while creating a massive superfluous humanity of at least 20-30% of our citizenship. the problems are trade deficits resulting from mercantelism, fiscal deficts resulting from tax cutting, especially on the affluent, and predatory monopolies that suffocates fair, dynamic private enterprise. And underlyoing this broken economic system is systemic fraud and corruption rotting the Constitutional moorings of self-governance.
Massive unemployment and lost manufacturing and commerce result from our failed economic system of concentrated ownership and unwonted power.
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R.W. Sanders
Numerous questions, too little expertise
03:29 AM on 09/14/2011
Here's the problem. Technology has eliminated hundreds of job categories that used to exist and employ millions. Jobs that used to take ten people now might not even take one. These jobs are gone and are never coming back. We have a huge generation of people in their late forties and fifties that are in no way trained for any new technological jobs that will be created. And by the time they retrain themselves, they are so old that no one will hire them anyway. So what does society do with these millions of folks?

Our politicians are going to have to realize that the only lifeline for several million of their neighbors and friends, is via governmental distribution of wealth in one form or another. Like free health care. Or food assistance. Or work programs, etc. And someone has to pay for this, and the only ones with any money are the wealthy. So they must pay or face the consequences. And those consequences are visible throughout Europe and the Middle East. The people will rise up, rather than languish and die. This is the choice that faces the United States. Face it and fix it.
gmikejake
resist evil
05:56 AM on 09/14/2011
Indeed! F/F Smart This is truly larger than just a problem for the U.S., technological change has removed hundreds of thousands of types of jobs while improved transportation and communication systems have moved the remaining, and comparatively fewer, and the newly jobs all over our planet. This, along with wealth and income inequalities, means that the "neocolonialists" are able to pretty much have their way across our planet. Sure, they bring jobs and the beginnings of a middle class to previously poor, relatively undeveloped countries, but at what costs? In this country, for a very long time, those with the most resources generally win the elections. And clearly, through media influences like the Murdoch empire and the "investments" of the Koch brothers "reality construct" so that the very, very wealthy can continue to influence our political and economic thinking. How long can this continue and what consequences will cause the ultimate collapse of their "capitalist" hegemony?
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therightzwrong
re-elect al gore
07:34 AM on 09/14/2011
Great thoughts.. but the rich have no intentions of supporting the middle class or the poor. We see this in our minimum wages, we see it in the social security tax .. we see it all over the place. The rich are becoming richer and richer by their capital gains.. and crashing out the stock market with our 401k $$. They no longer need to work their money to make money.
Monaco anyone?
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chlai88
Change is the only constant
02:23 AM on 09/14/2011
There is another angle that is often conveniently overlooked here. Oh yes, spend & keep spending till the economy turn around. Because once the economy turns around, boomtime tax receipts will more than cover the hole that was created. Brilliant. Logical right. True but only until you look at the astronomical numbers that make up our deficit today. For the next decade, every American will be paying $2500 a year just on debt interest alone. The economy may never turn around because the govt will be running on a debt escalator, always trying to catch up. There's no choice, we have to simulate this economy as well as slow down the escalator all at the same time. That means hard choices, very very hard choices.
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R.W. Sanders
Numerous questions, too little expertise
03:38 AM on 09/14/2011
Every American, except the rich and their armies of tax lawyers, has to pay their share. So the rich pay zero and everyone else pays more than 2500. So why do the rich corporations and rich people get tax refunds while everyone else pays the wealthy's share plus their own? The Fortune 500 are showing record profits, yet GE and Exxon get refunds? And subsidies? And Mr. Buffet pays a lower rate than his butler. Until these discrepancies are fixed, the working class will rebel against those "hard choices." After the rich make their hard choices, then and only then can you expect the rest of us to go along.