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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: December 2, 2009 01:38 PM

The Economic Reality That No One Wants to Talk About

What's Your Reaction:

Most ideas for creating more jobs assume jobs will return when the economy recovers. So the immediate goal is to accelerate the process. A second stimulus would be helpful, especially directed at state governments that are now mounting an anti-stimulus package (tax increases, job cuts, service cuts) of over $200 billion this year and next. If the deficit hawks threaten to take flight, the administration should use the remaining TARP funds.

Other less expensive ideas include a new jobs tax credit for any firm creating net new jobs. Lending directed at small businesses, which are having a hard time getting credit but are responsible for most new jobs. A one-year payroll tax holiday on the first, say, $20,000 of income - which would quickly put money into peoples' pockets and simultaneously make it cheaper for businesses to hire because they pay half the payroll tax. And a WPA style program that hires jobless workers directly to, say, insulate homes.

Most of this would be helpful. Together, they might take the official unemployment rate down a notch or two.

But here's the real worry. The basic assumption that jobs will eventually return when the economy recovers is probably wrong. Some jobs will come back, of course. But the reality that no one wants to talk about is a structural change in the economy that's been going on for years but which the Great Recession has dramatically accelerated.

Under the pressure of this awful recession, many companies have found ways to cut their payrolls for good. They've discovered that new software and computer technologies have made workers in Asia and Latin America just about as productive as Americans, and that the Internet allows far more work to be efficiently outsourced abroad.

This means many Americans won't be rehired unless they're willing to settle for much lower wages and benefits. Today's official unemployment numbers hide the extent to which Americans are already on this path. Among those with jobs, a large and growing number have had to accept lower pay as a condition for keeping them. Or they've lost higher-paying jobs and are now in a new ones that pays less.

Yet reducing unemployment by cutting wages merely exchanges one problem for another. We'll get jobs back but have more people working for pay they consider inadequate, more working families at or near poverty, and widening inequality. The nation will also have a harder time restarting the economy because so many more Americans lack the money they need to buy all the goods and services the economy can produce.

So let's be clear: The goal isn't just more jobs. It's more jobs with good wages. Which means the fix isn't just temporary measures to accelerate a jobs recovery, but permanent new investments in the productivity of Americans.

What sort of investments? Big ones that span many years: early childhood education for every young child, excellent K-12, fully-funded public higher education, more generous aid for kids from middle-class and poor families to attend college, good health care, more basic R&D that's done here in the U.S., better and more efficient public transit like light rail, a power grid that's up to the task, and so on.

Without these sorts of productivity-enhancing investments, a steadily increasing number of Americans will be priced out of competition in world economy. More and more Americans will face a Hobson's choice of no job or a job with lousy wages. It's already happening.


Cross-posted from Robert Reich's Blog

 
 
 
 
 
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08:34 PM on 01/26/2010
Another great tour of our descent - capped off with some lame solutions.

Degreed Engineers/PhD's? India already has us beat and then some.

High-speed rail? Where's the back of the line?

"Green" economy? Can't even get crippled Cap 'n Trade thru Senate.

When will featured bloggers here notice the elephant in a shrinking room - OUR BROKEN TRADE POLICY..

Why is this TRADE Act languishing in Committee?

http://citizen.typepad.com/eyesontrade/2009/06/trade-act-2009-its-here.html
06:10 PM on 12/08/2009
Why would a government; wholly owned by a corporate elite, desire to have anything but an uneducated and unskilled populance that is dependent on their scraps?
09:03 PM on 12/06/2009
Given the globalization of our economy, supply & demand dictates a downward pressure on the price of wages. It's undeniable. Robert's proposed long term solutions...

"Big ones that span many years: early childhood education for every young child, excellent K-12, fully-funded public higher education, more generous aid for kids from middle-class and poor families to attend college, good health care, more basic R&D that's done here in the U.S., better and more efficient public transit like light rail, a power grid that's up to the task, and so on."

Hmm. For a former Labor Secretary, this list is rather shallow. The "solutions" sound okay on their surface, but they will take decades to have any meaningful effect. They will basically result in a better educated population and improved infrastructure -- both good things, but how are they going to make a meaningful difference in our competition with the likes of China & India? At the heart of our economical problems is a cultural shortcoming with a political wrapper. Until we have a work force that WANTS to work & achieve accompanied by a set of regulations & laws supporting that desire, we'll be stagnant at best.
08:02 PM on 12/06/2009
It's corporatocracy.

The Presidency and politics in general is literally a red herring - a distraction.

Pay no attention to the profit motive behind the screen, little girl.

Only "managed" reforms will be tolerated.

That is the economic reality.
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libwingoflibwing
Leftist, Christian, Non-Violent Revolutionary
04:39 PM on 12/06/2009
How to make our economy roar with high paying, good jobs.

1) Tariffs on all imported goods, which can be produced in the United States, high enough that they would be more expensive that goods produced in the United States.

2) The first point includes parts as well as completed goods.

3) The first point includes goods produced overseas by American Companies too.

4) Payroll taxes paid by employers on foreign workers that make the wages higher than American wages, with the taxes going to the programs that support American workers.

5) Card Check.

6) Outlawing all Carbon Dioxide releasing new vehicles, new heating or cooking systems and energy production after January 1, 2012, with existing vehicles and heating or cooking systems grandfathered in for individuals and small businesses. Having government subsidizing to encourage individuals and small business to upgrade to non carbon dioxide releasing vehicles or systems for heating cooking.

7) A major federal project to build a national system of high speed rail on the level of our interstate system.

8) A major federal project to build convenient and comprehensive public transit in all cities.

9) Repeal the Reagan tax cuts.

10) Restore Glass-Steagall
03:44 PM on 12/06/2009
Professor Reich, you've mentioned outsourcing and innovation as sources of permanent job lost but you haven't addressed mergers and acquisitions and the millions of jobs that have been permanently lost due to redundancy. M&As have become a huge part of the economy and I don't think you can seriously speak to the structural changes that have occured without taking them into account. I suspect that M&As have been good for padding the profit margins of the acquiring company (once it has hacked away the business and employees it doesn't want) but has been a disaster for the overall economy (locally and globally).

Ultimately, the economy depends not on what the government does or does not do but how business behaves. When business leaders think that economy is principally about making profit, they will compartmentalize to drive everything to that end. But economy is envirnoment. Everyone of us draws our sustenance from it. Our business and political leaders need to understand that there is more importance in economy than just profit.
02:04 PM on 12/06/2009
For decades now the value of labor in this country has been artifically suppressed. Outsourcing jobs overseas is just the latest incarnation. Our southern border has been deliberately left open because of the affect millions of undocumented foreign workers has on the cost of labor. I have no problem with these individuals as persons and this country has always been able to absorb a certain number of new arrivals. I do not agree with placing all the blame on them because what they have done by entering the country illegally was with the collusion of business interests and their politicians in this country. The idea of illiminating poverty in this country is anathema to cheap labor. Every attempt to alieviate poverty in this country has been doomed to failure by this. For big business to have cheap labor they have to have poverty and the more the better. I have often heard economists in this country citing the low cost of labor as evidence that the economy was in great shape. These people live in their own little world where what is best for them is best for the country. They have no empathy or concept of what the majority of people have to go through to make a living. Unfortunately they are allowed to get their way by politicians whom they have paid off.
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BartRoberts
Vita canis, tum mors.
03:24 PM on 12/06/2009
Guess what it took for Louis XVI and Nicholas II to learn empathy for the lower classes?

Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it.
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05:53 PM on 12/06/2009
At the rate we are going down the tubes, our doom to repeat the lessons that need to be learned again may happen sooner than later. The employment avalanche is at critical mass the natives are getting anxious.
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01:06 PM on 12/06/2009
"Jobs will return when the economy recovers"? That happened after the first Great Depression when the "shuttered plants" re opened to receive the unemployed. That's when we became "The arsenal for Democracy". Today the plants and the jobs have evaporated to trickle down abroad. In the absence of real reform of so-called "Free Trade" (the economic equivalent of unilateral disarmament, another form of Natioinal suicide) any new manufacturing jobs or industries created will act like sand poured into a sieve. An international corporation is by definition not an American corporation. It is like a tramp steamer with a "flag of convenience". It owes allegiance or concern to nothing but it's own agenda.
10:53 AM on 12/06/2009
Part of job creation will have to come from the sectors of corporations that have been able to go over seas without reprecussions in the way of taxes.As long as the US Gov. allows Dupont, GM, P&G, etc., to just relocate in order for larger profits w/out some form of heavy tariffs, this trend will just continue. Large companies will never get in the spirit of sharing the wealth,(in forms of less profit, higher wages for employees), and we see this in the financial sectors. Even when the new green jobs are finally a reality, there will come a time when it is more profitable to move over seas, & then we'll be right back in this same spot again! Offshore tax accounts, companies in foriegn lands with tax exemptions here should be abolished. They won't though, and sadly, it will have to get so bad here that drastic events start to take place before there is real change.
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Sajwert
10:35 AM on 12/06/2009
A number of years ago, a kid short of college funds could easily get a job working in one of the many factories in our small city. Today, they will, IF they are lucky, get a part-time job slinging French fries at a local hamburger joint. This goes for the largest city in our state, also.

There are a number of jobs available in the tech field, and sixteen times that number lining up to apply for those jobs. Our local soup kitchens have seen a 30% increase in requests for help since last year alone.

For the first time in my nearly 50 years in this house, my property taxes went DOWN, and I got a break as in our state we pay property taxes but no state tax on everyday purchases other than a meals tax. Most of my city found their houses down-valued instead of the other way it has been nearly every year.

I don't see much in the way of help coming at any point in the next few years, and when it comes, you can bet you last dollar those on top will still be getting more and those on the bottom will be lucky just to get a sliver more, period.
10:25 AM on 12/06/2009
ONGOING FINANCIAL HANKY-PANK

I just don't get it: tens of thousands of people are still being foreclosed, while the big banks are back at the derivative game with TARP money- and awarding themselves big chunks in the form of "bonuses".

I thought money was given by the Federal Reserve to restart lending and to make conditions easier for those in hardship.

This is a horrible story, one that might compromise the Obama administration present plans and standing in hisotry.
09:54 AM on 12/06/2009
Rovert Reich is right on target. Obama's team just does not seem to understand the basic ideas that Reich writes about here.
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confuseddemocrat
09:19 AM on 12/06/2009
Mr. Reich.....you are right....

There has been a radical restructuring of our economy whereby semi-skilled blue collar workers and even some highly skilled white collar workers (IT specialists, programmers etc) are no longer needed because there are literally billions of individuals in the BRIC nations who can perform the labor at a fraction of the costs that it would take to employ American workers

What troubles me is that the Obama administration does not seem to realize the severity of the situation

It was most disheartening to hear Obama's opening statements regarding "not having unlimited resources for jobs creation.".....

To me this signals an unwillingness to expend funds for a truly significant jobs creation/training program

This unemployment problem, if left unabated, will lead to political upheaval because swing states such as Indiana, Ohio, PA, and also in traditionally Democratic states such as Michigan, MN, CA, WV, WA, NY, NJ, Delaware are beginning to buckle under economic pressures

There is a growing popular narrative which states that main street has been abandoned the Democratic party. This narrative is further reinforced by the bailouts of Wall Street and by the administration's lip service and its overt apathy towards jobs creation legislation

As frustration rises...these individuals/states will become increasingly susceptible to the simplistic answers, wedge issues and "know nothing" politics that is propagated by the ultra right, the religious right, and the Palins, Limbaughs and Becks......
05:20 AM on 12/06/2009
I'm honestly curious as to what would happen if international corporations or a company that has based in the United States but also in foreign countries were forced to meet wage demands, taxes, and benefits as if they were operating in the United States at all times, even for their foreign employees, in order to continue their business in the U.S. Although that isn't saying much considering minimum wage still needs a boost here anyway.
04:14 AM on 12/06/2009
If wages go lower people are going to rise up and revolt violently. We need to invest in SMALL businesses with loans and the rich have to kick down and share if they want the stability to enjoy their new found wealth.