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Robert Reich

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The Jobs Doldrums and Obama's Future

Posted: 07/06/2012 11:04 am

Bad news for the U.S. economy and for Barack Obama. We're in the jobs doldrums.

Unemployment for June is stuck at 8.2 percent, the same as in May. And only 80,000 new jobs were added.

Remember, 125,000 news jobs are needed just to keep up with the increase in the population of Americans who need jobs. That means the jobs situation continues to worsen.

The average of 75,000 new jobs created in April, May and June contrasts sharply with the 226,000 new jobs created in January, February and March.

In Ohio yesterday, Obama reiterated that he had inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression. That's true. But the excuse is wearing thin. It's his economy now, and most voters don't care what he inherited.

In fact, a good case can be made that the economy is out of Obama's hands -- that the European debt crisis and the slowdown in China will have far more impact on the U.S. economy over the next four months than anything Obama could come up with, even if he had the votes.

Yet he has to show he understands the depth and breadth of this crisis, and is prepared to do large and bold things to turn the economy around in his second term if and when he does have the votes in Congress. So far, his proposals are policy miniatures relative to the size of the problem.

But the real political test comes after Labor Day. Before Labor Day, Americans aren't really focused on the upcoming election. After Labor Day, they focus like a laser. If the economy is moving in the right direction then -- if unemployment is dropping and jobs are increasing -- Obama has a good chance of being reelected. If the present doldrums continue -- or worse -- he won't be.

ROBERT B. REICH, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century. He has written thirteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock" and "The Work of Nations." His latest is an e-book, "Beyond Outrage." He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine and chairman of Common Cause.

 

Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich

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Bad news for the U.S. economy and for Barack Obama. We're in the jobs doldrums. Unemployment for June is stuck at 8.2 percent, the same as in May. And only 80,000 new jobs were added. Remember, 125...
Bad news for the U.S. economy and for Barack Obama. We're in the jobs doldrums. Unemployment for June is stuck at 8.2 percent, the same as in May. And only 80,000 new jobs were added. Remember, 125...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rontheking
Legitimate ape here to deliver your gift from Dog.
09:29 PM on 07/09/2012
The crazy thing is that people must know--don't they know?--that Romney plans to cut taxes even more to the wealthiest. And they would still vote for him? As what? Self-punishment?
darcy
I'm the one on the left
10:51 AM on 07/09/2012
Why don't we as a society face the elephant in the room: there are too many babies being born. The earth can't sustain this human population boom; the result will be loss of fresh water, destruction of other species, and in the end mass starvation.
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Allen Jenkins
Virtual Ferroequinologist
03:36 AM on 07/09/2012
"In Ohio yesterday, Obama reiterated that he had inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression. That's true. But the excuse is wearing thin. It's his economy now, and most voters don't care what he inherited."

Right on Robert!
02:49 AM on 07/09/2012
Robert Reich says the President will not be reelected if the economic doldrums continue or become worse. He says the President must come forward with bold plans for his 2nd term (with a disclaimer that success is subject to "votes in Congress"). This is the equivalent of trying to sell large, expensive heavy equipment with a conspicuous tag on the crate that says, "some assembly required".

Reich is right about the need for bold plans. However, much could be done here and now to mitigate unemployment and slow growth. Of course, votes in Congress will be required and most assuredly, that will not happen! After all, the documented, single, nonnegotiable, do-or-die objective of Republicans presently in Congress is to evict Obama from the White House, "at all costs".

Nevertheless, bold plans are needed here and now! For example, immediate measures to return manufacturing jobs to the U.S. are long overdue. Such plans will come with a disclaimer about votes in Congress; but they will not come with the usual stamp of Republican approval, "Made in China". Congress will of course, object and obstruct; but they will do so at risk of voter retaliation.
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MarcDel
What a child should never see
02:46 PM on 07/08/2012
I think Reich forgets that if Obama had his way the stimulus would have been bigger. He had to compromise. He would be more keynesian than Reich if he had his way. He clearly favors more spending now with a long term debt reduction plan just as Reich favors. Reich forgets all the time Obama spent trying to create consensus. Right or wrong he tried to bring the country together. He knows now it's futile with the GOP. He needs our support to keep the senate and maybe win the house
12:14 PM on 07/08/2012
ROBERT REICH doesn't like Obama's policies either and has written many pieces critical. Now, however it is election time and he desperately needs the man he has criticized to win to keep Romney out of the white house. Think about. If Romney wins and the economy turns around his liberal ideas of why we need a bigger government will be trashed. It is every man for himself time and Reich knows a Romney recovery would be very bad for him. Krugman is in exactly the same boat.
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HST
Conservatism = selfishness
01:45 PM on 07/08/2012
If Romney wins there will be a big jobs boom overseas and the economy will improve for millionaires.

Reich and Krugman won't lose any sleep if Romney wins, they've seen what happened the last time we had a CEO president (Bush).
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12:42 AM on 07/08/2012
He is weak and has done nothing but continue Bush policies
11:39 PM on 07/07/2012
Reich can try and put the US economy back in the oven and let it bake for another month or two, but this President smells like 3 day old fish and no amount of cooking is going to make this turkey smell any better. Mixed my metaphors, but Reich just can't admit they screwed up in taking Barry over Hillary. Has he taken any responsibility for anything bad yet? I've lost count of the "It's GWB's fault" whines.
Hopefully, in November, this turkey will finally be done.
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4TJefferson
Promote the General Welfare
04:21 PM on 07/08/2012
And you think "normal" folks will vote for the Mormon with Swiss offshore bank accounts? It took FDR 9 years, a World War and deficit spending of 125% of GDP to pull us out of the Great Depression. Truman and Ike had tax rates of 90% to pay for the rebuilding of Europe and Japan plus the Interstate Highway system. Oh, but that is "socialism" to you righty boys.
08:20 PM on 07/07/2012
You guys can argue all you want about the figures and the outside forces and the politics and who is responsible for what, but let me give you a perspective from an old grammy just watching and reading and trying to measure each of these men outside of their political ideologies. Obama is a show horse. Romney is a work horse. My voter registration says I'm a Democrat, but the work hose gets my vote in November, for the problems this country faces are much too complex and much too extensive to entrust another four years to "cool" instead of competent.
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Shaun Hensley
The American Experiment has failed
08:34 PM on 07/07/2012
How is Romney a "work horse"? I agree with the show horse comment, btw.
08:51 PM on 07/07/2012
I read the story of Staples, from the very beginning, his faith in the concept when even his partners had doubts, and his tireless promotion and work until the very end to make it a success Also, read about his takeover of the Olympics and the huge issues that entailed in the beginning, organizing, bringing sanity to chaos, ending up with a profit and a very positive experience from what began so disasterously. No such stories like this in Obama's background, Shaun.
01:02 PM on 07/08/2012
read his bio. Romney has succeeded and excelled in virtually everything he has done.
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EHenry
Author of the new book - How We Got Swindled by Wa
08:52 AM on 07/08/2012
logic? perspective in lieu of analytical thought.
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Skunkman
old & decrepit
08:14 PM on 07/07/2012
These are alarming facts, yet a lot of the American public blame everything on our current President, when in fact the GOP and Tea Party have done everything in their power to block pretty much all of his efforts to improve the economy and create jobs in the US.

Mike:
CtDude
Charity begins with ME!
09:22 PM on 07/07/2012
How about the over two dozen bills that passed the House that Harry Reid won't even bring to the floor in the Senate?
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John Hunt
11:39 PM on 07/07/2012
What are they, or are you just spouting bs.
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GraniteSkyline
I wish you happiness!
07:40 AM on 07/08/2012
Most of those bills that passed the house are just cràp with no relevance and no chance of being passed--and the GOP knows this.

The GOTP wrote some crazyassed unconstitutional àbortion bills that they know don't have a snowball's chance in He||, but will gin up the base and cause campaign donations to flood in and their popularity at home to surge. Which is all they were really trying to accomplish anyway.

How about the over 400 bills the GOTP has filibustered to deàth?
10:01 AM on 07/08/2012
He had complete control for 2 years and couldn't get it done. He was too busy "fundamentally transforming" America. In 2010 the electorate tied his hands. In 2012, they'll fix their 2008 mistake.
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Skunkman
old & decrepit
07:04 PM on 07/08/2012
Sure Pablo & we all live on the planet FOX Noise. :-)

Mike:
11:38 AM on 07/09/2012
Complete control? The Democrats had a majority in Congress, but the president is not their boss.
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GHENT007
THE ONE TRUE GLOBAL MUSIC SUPERSTAR!!
07:46 PM on 07/07/2012
There is only one way out of this economic disaster, Vote your way out, Obama is burdened with trying to create jobs with a hostile Congress, So they blame Obama, because he's at the top of the political food chain, but in actuality, its the Congress that determines the actual legislation that the President signs into law,So if they give him nothing of economical significance to sign, then, who should we as Americans hold Accountable? I say the Republican controlled congress, I really honestly don't believe that President Obama would stop economic progress, but I do believe that those with evil Intentions would do just that, Hold back any and all legislation that would Improve the general economic situation of Average Americans, in the hopes that Americans will take it out on the President at election time, Well, lets break with tradition, and place the blame squarely where it belongs, And have the republicans in congress, join the rest of us on unemployment since they insist on keeping millions of Americans out of work simply for political gain, this is Anti-American, let remind them of that fact at election time!!!OBAMA 2012 AND BEYOND!!
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Shaun Hensley
The American Experiment has failed
08:37 PM on 07/07/2012
He didn't enter office with a hostile congress, the people's opposition consisted of SIX democrats in disguise in the senate.

Obama was either too weak or too stupid or too aligned with wall street interests to do the work he was elected to do.

Yes, vote progressive in the house and senate races, no don't tell obama that he's done as good a job as we expected.

He hasn't.

Some of his former supporters honestly think he's working for the other side.
11:18 PM on 07/07/2012
He had a favorable congress, and he used it- he got a 900bn stimulus, and he got health care, despite the fact that the 111th congress passed zero bills through the senate without at least sixty votes.
He has not done as good a job as anyone expected, primarily because he was propped up so high on expectations on his election that everyone who voted for him seemed to expect all their own personal dreams to come true at his hand.
He's done a heck of a lot better than the last guy. And as for Romney, the only thing you can be sure he believes will help the economy is lowering his own taxes.
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GHENT007
THE ONE TRUE GLOBAL MUSIC SUPERSTAR!!
11:46 PM on 07/07/2012
Obama is neither weak or stupid, it the clear hatred of this president, their contempt and disrespect, has been clear from day one, So, it's the republicans who are going out of their way to, "NOT HIRE" A cheap ass chicken S#!T Excuse to create drama instead of their jobs, which is an insult to the American People!!!
08:55 PM on 07/07/2012
The person holding back legislation in Congress is Harry Reid, the majority leader of the Senate, who has tabled over 30 bipartisan bills from the House, refusing to let them go to the floor for vote or debate.
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GHENT007
THE ONE TRUE GLOBAL MUSIC SUPERSTAR!!
09:15 PM on 07/07/2012
Clearly they have attachments that generate Republican Corporate Welfare, that they don't need or deserve, thank god we have sensible people in the senate!!!
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Hikerguy22
This is your carbon footprint
07:27 PM on 07/07/2012
Obama spend to much time with the Health Care act. As a result, he now has to deal with the jobs issue. Just think what could have been done to head off the great recession that now will get a second chance to do a generation in.
01:16 PM on 07/08/2012
the minute the ACA passed, job creation flat lined. Correlation/Causation? In this case, it's pretty indisputable.
11:52 AM on 07/09/2012
Please tell us exactly what Obama could have done "to head off the great recession," in your view.

I'd love to hear your ideas.
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Hikerguy22
This is your carbon footprint
06:14 PM on 07/12/2012
In the statement "what could have been done", Obama was not in that sentence.
But yes, he could have helped forge a bridge with the opponents, but instead, created many opponests who may have otherwise worked with him to head off the great recession.
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Hikerguy22
This is your carbon footprint
06:23 PM on 07/12/2012
Just goes to show that Obama had no idea how bad the economy was about to get. Now with many more politicians and people who do not like his health plan, he will have a much harder time fixing our problems.
05:58 PM on 07/07/2012
There are those that would contend that the Great Depression lasted as long as it did because there was too much cash chasing too few opportunities. Could the same be true of the Great Recession?

Money continues to flow into U.S. Treasury’s, which investors perceive as safer than stocks when the economy is weakening. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.54 percent, from 1.59 percent recently, not far from the lowest levels since at least the 1940s.

Please sign the petition to the U.S. Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committee asking for improved oversight of federal banking and market regulators that have proven ineffective at not only detecting inappropriate behavior in the capital markets, but also preventing such behavior from hindering job creation and economic growth.

To read more about what we’re trying to do and to sign the petition, click here:
http://www.change.org/petitions/u-s-senate-banking-and-u-s-house-financial-services-committees-use-technology-to-provide-oversight-of-u-s-banking-and-market-regulators?share_id=HTpDoOQNJgpe=d2e

It'll just take a minute!
04:07 PM on 07/07/2012
Mr. Reich has put the blame on international issues in Europe and China for the stalled jobs growth, but failed to address the domestic issues impacting job growth, increase regulation on business large and small, the expiration of the current capital gains and dividends tax for higher rates in 2012 and beyond, and the implementation of at least 8 new taxes and fees associated with the Obamacare bill. What sane business person would want to invest in expansion with these three domestic headwinds?
04:41 PM on 07/07/2012
Not to mention that all this spending will have to be repaid in higher taxes, which Obama has made clear will come from the evil business owners.
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pshakkottai
retired engineer
09:53 AM on 07/08/2012
Not true! See
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/pshakkottai/starbucks-indivisible_b_1634488_165303024.html
to see why the private sector has no debt to repay.
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Shaun Hensley
The American Experiment has failed
05:38 PM on 07/07/2012
What you call regulation, sane people call protections. They were hard fought and won and we aren't going back a century in order to compete with 3rd world countries. We'll close our markets to their goods first.
09:47 PM on 07/07/2012
Shaun, there's a great difference between sane regulation and over-regulation, which seems to be what's happening in this country today. Just look at the excesses of the EPA. last week they fined companies for not using some kind of product that wasn't even available on the market yet! That's over-regulation.
12:19 AM on 07/08/2012
Don't be so neiive to think all regulation is protection, some is to modify the behavior of a company or industry to suit the desire of the regulators agenda whether that is to favor another company or group or for political a purpose.
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jmounday
Don't believe anything you read below
03:42 PM on 07/07/2012
I'm ready for some serious spending,I am only here for a few more years and don't really care who pays the bill.It won't be me.I like the cap and trade deal expanded plan.Where if I stay home and watch the plants grow and sip some vino I should recieve a living wage since I am not using the roads or purchasing gas clothing etc.Thats what I call party on garth.

I am an artist so I want double the cash.
04:22 PM on 07/07/2012
And you speak of selfish greedy Conservitives ! You want to spend what we don't have, which in essence is printing money which will fuel inflation and Impose a dubious at best tax, on carbon which will have a negative impact on all our economic lives. The unintended consaquences of all this will fall on the future generation of our society, all this while you sit home and drink.